Sunday, July 7, 2024

Portland Timbers 4-1 Nashville SC: Maybe We Can Have Nice Things?!

IYKYK

Just not hat tricks. Hey-OH!

Jonathan Rodriguez’s failure to top the brace he’d built through the middle of the first half with a hat trick turned to slapstick by the end of the game. Fuck it. So long as the Portland Timbers win enough games without them, I can lay down for my final rest with nothing left to check in that particular box.

For those who didn’t watch, the Timbers straight-up ran over Nashville SC tonight with a 4-0 win at Providence Park. If I had to name a defining moment for the night, I’d go with the “HOLY SHIT” huddle Nashville ‘keeper Joe Willis called after Portland’s fourth goal went into the (or his) bottom left corner for the second time.

The only real question to ask about tonight: at what precise moment did the point of analyzing this game leave the building? After the third goal? The fourth? The (holy shit, justified!) red card? (Which is in here somewhere, or better be.) If there’s a story besides the game slipping away from Nashville five three-to-four minutes at a time between the game’s 18th and 35th minutes, I couldn’t name it.

It was fun and all – which was genuinely nice, not to mention fresh – but, no, the only thing to talk about is how hard Nashville fell on their faces. To wit…

Portland scored its first goal on a turnover and by capitalizing on a literal 4-v-2.

Daniel Lovitz/Nashville gambled everything on cutting off Juan David Mosquera’s escape and, failing at that, the Timbers scored their second goal in a 4-v-3 with Eryk Williamson with all of time and space to command from the right.

Portland's third goal provided what has to be an exquisitely painful reminder of what happened to Nashville's midfield, not just around the two goals above, but through the first half. Abandon ship? Aye-aye, cap'n!

Finally, Portland’s fourth goal took some (fucking) outstanding work by my man of the match, Santiago Moreno, to come off, but he put it in and delivered a tap-in for Williamson. Still, it also required Nashville's defense demonstrating the practical difference between just kinda being there and being present.

The real culprit.
The game was done and dusted by then, only to have Anunga say, “I’ll see your four disasters and raise you one,” with a tackle that could have cut yet another season short for David Ayala. I don’t blame Anunga for that so much, especially not with Nashville’s interim head coach, Rumba Munthali, yelling gods know what about intensity(!) during the immediately preceding water break.

My point is, everything about this game/result that can be replicated already has been (see No. 1 below) and there’s no way in Hell Portland sees a team collapse in such tight and satisfying intervals for the rest of the season. To be clear, Nashville’s defense allowed an average 1.29 goals against going into this game; tonight’s result raised that to 1.41 goals against all on its own. While they may not be the defensive juggernaut of yester-seasons, Nashville doesn’t face-plant like they did tonight often. For what it’s worth, I checked and they’ve allowed four goals or more just five times over the past four seasons – so just five times in 136 games. That’s not so abnormal, of course – how many teams allow four goals on the regular? – but they’ve also allowed three goals just seven times over that same period. Letting games get entirely away from them doesn’t happen much.

All credit to the Timbers for collectively making that happen. Moreover, and if I’m being honest, I don’t even care about the clean sheet. So they switched off for a second. The result and the sum of the season still add up to four wins over Portland’s past five games and fifth place in the West (if with both Houston Dynamo FC and the Vancouver Whitecaps with two games in hand). Even if you argue those are games the Timbers should be winning…well, they did.

In keeping with the notes above, this game hardly lent itself to talking points, but I’ll try to squeeze out a couple, maybe even a few…

Talking Points
1) The Brilliant Thing That Is Very Much Replicating!
As noted in the broadcast, Portland has scored 40+ goals earlier this season than they ever have in their time in MLS – and, for reference, they have 45 on the season. As underlined in big, fat Sharpie tonight, the Timbers field a wholly credible, three-headed attack through Rodriguez, Felipe Mora and, absent through yellow-card accumulation tonight, Evander. Those three players have chipped in 31 goals all their own. They have a great/improving foil in Moreno’s 4 goals and nine assists, particularly with Evander adding 11 assists of his own. Portland has the third best attack in MLS, which makes a fair argument that things are better than fine up there. Meanwhile…

Because I googled, "sheets with poo on them"
1a) The One Thing That Needs to Happen
Again, Portland didn’t mind the sheets, there’s washing to be done, etc. That said, Portland’s defense is improving. After allowing 27 goals over the first 13 games of the season (average 2.08 goals allowed/game), the Timbers have cut that to 1.2 goals/game over their past 10. Has the opposition gotten softer over the period, whether by form or habit? Yeah, and to an answerable extent (go here and judge for yourself). But, again, Portland is doing it, i.e., winning the games they should against the teams they both should and can.

2) The Benefits of Health & the Substitutions
I might have let go of the clean sheet more readily than most and that had a lot to do with wanting Dave van den Bergh (with Phil Neville giving psychic instructions over his shoulder) go as heavy as possible with the subs. Looking at what he had on hand…yeah, I guess he did that. He got Antony in for (saints preserve him) Ayala at the half, defended the lead one (Cristhian Paredes for Moreno at the 75th) or two (Eric Miller for Mosquera and Zac McGraw for Dario Zuparic) subs at a time over the second half, and gave a young Timber named Victor Enriquez Velazquez his debut in what looked like an attacking role. Good and smart stuff, top to bottom, even with the game basically being over by the 35th minute. But that’s not the best bit…

The simple fact of having Williamson on hand to replace Evander is huge. He may not do the job as well, but Williamson can do it. Even if he couldn’t – or, tonight, just didn’t – that happened because Santiago Moreno covered the absent creativity by playing a fucking blinder tonight. It goes beyond the two assists, too: he turned escaping pressure into positive plays over the 75 minutes he played and, better still, beat Nashville players to just about every 50/50 (even 40/60) ball within 10 feet of his current position. By a similar token, Eric Miller is a solid defender, McGraw has league-elite upside in the air, and Kamal Miller will come back – whole and sharp, ideally – before too long.

Seriously, this team has enough options to where they could be a little more/consistent cohesion away from competitive. That’s pretty fucking wild.

3) Signs, Signs Everywhere Are Signs
When is the last time you saw the Timbers playing as (good) loose and connected as they did tonight? I didn’t write about the Dallas game, but I did watch it and my biggest takeaway there wasn’t any more complicated than, “they look better and more connected.”

I don’t want to get too far ahead on the optimism – especially with two upcoming games that could give it a swift kick in the tenders (v Real Salt Lake and at the Los Angeles Galaxy) – but the past several weeks have genuinely made me more bullish about 2024. And, just to note it, I’ll achieve actual optimism (…to be clear, that’s optimism) if the Timbers pick up three points total between today and Leagues Cup. As I see it, anything less keeps them on wait-and-see.

Till after the RSL game…due to some changes coming down from the crazy son-of-a-bitch editor who lashes this thing aimlessly around the Arctic.

5 comments:

  1. I saw this match as 1-2-3...
    1. NSH did their best lemmings impression by starting the match all in on a HIGH press, doubling the ball and flooding the attacking half with as many as 8 guys from opening kick. That strategy had a shelf life of about 16 minutes.
    By that time PTFC was stepping out of every double-team and looking upfield to multiple free runners and acres of green, green turf.
    Seriously - did the lame-duck coach think PTFC hasn't improved since the Philly beat-down, or did he just not care anymore?

    2. This Timbers offense is now officially SCARY. A blitz of 4 jailbreak goals in 11 minutes - while missing our #1 creator? No problem; Santi steps in, with JDM, Antony and Eryk along for the sprints.

    3. Last: when you get run for 4 goals and go down a man, in 95 degree heat and on short rest - game's over; everything left is literally NBA garbage time.
    And PTFC saw this one out just fine, thank you very much. They controlled the action, got guys out for rest and gave some more a nice run... and could have scored more if they needed to, which they didn't.
    This was 100% Mission Accomplished.

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  2. On No. 3: I felt that after the third goal. A fourth goal and the red card (again, yikes) rendered any thought of a comeback absurd.

    Fwiw, I think you and I have a good tension by disposition in that you tend toward "hell, yeah!" whereas I tend toward "yes, but." On the plus side, I don't see this as a "the truth is somewhere in the middle situation," but one of, "I wonder where things go from here?"

    Following through on the above, the results have improved, without question, but the opposition hasn't. The next two games could be very revealing. And I meant what I said about feeling bullish.

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    1. "I wonder where things go from here?" You bet, because there's no question that RSL and LAG are two of the top-tier taters in the West bin.
      RSL scares me most, frankly. They play fast, they're relentless... and much of that is from a midfield that's physical and always pushing forward. We haven't yet dealt with a team like that successfully...
      If the Timbers handle that and win, I can believe Pinocchio's a real boy at last!

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  3. On No. 3: I think it’s less of “they could’ve scored another” and more “Christ they almost scored three more”. They certainly went on cruise control for the second half and did all the things they needed to for both game control and resting key players. But they still flawlessly made attacking threats and were extremely unlucky not to add to the lead (frankly the whole “just get Jona his Hattie” probably had a lot to do with them not putting in better chances). They seemed almost surprised that they were moving upfield so easily. I don’t have the data (because I don’t look/am lazy) but it felt like we won every defensive action we went in for. And not only won but immediately turned upfield into an attacking action. The first half is what’s talked about but honestly they still looked every bit as scary the entire second (granted up a man). This was a bad opponent but was the first game where I felt the Timbers came to play the full 90 and not just play the tale of two halves narrative that’s gotten quite stale

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    1. There was something of an "at will" vibe to the Timbers' second half, as if all they had to do was bestir themselves.

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