Mild Dread & the Preseason So Far

"Mild dread" is very literal on today's internet.

To get preliminaries out of the way, it’s the preseason, nothing matters, not just in the Portland Timbers extended universe, but generally, and I’m not taking much of anything, or even anything at all, from either today’s 0-0 draw against Chicago Fire FC or Wednesday’s 2-1 win over the San Jose Earthquakes. With that in mind…

Broadly
The Timbers looked sharper against San Jose than they did against Chicago, but I didn’t see much for fluid attacking movement in either game – Portland scored two goals against San Jose, one a set-piece, the other one half-trash – so opportunism looks to continue its long reign over well-oiled attacking machinery. Chicago provided stiffer competition – more on that shortly – but I don’t see the point of reading too much into any of that beyond filing away the possibility that the Fire may be further along in its rebuild than San Jose is in theirs. Based on what I saw, Portland’s 2025 Preseason First Team has some capacity to press – with the caveat that starting Felipe Mora disarms that a bit – and that gave them a good half against San Jose and a strong opening 10 minutes against Chicago. Related, I don’t expect much pressing to continue once Evander and Jonathan Rodriguez get back into the fold, but who knows?

Also, four points in two games would look a lot better if it hadn’t come against two of MLS’s most-plagued franchises (seriously, I’ve done the math, both teams are cursed). Still, Portland cleared the bar on the (meaningless) results side…woo-hooooooo.

I multi-tasked through the San Jose game (because working), so the notes below come more from what I saw against Chicago today…but I’m noting them because I believe they still (unfortunately) pertain generally.

The Lingering Issue
The Timbers continue to present as a combination of rushed and disconnected when they get on the ball. The symptoms get worse anytime they play teams that press, or even mark man-to-man, but this feels ominous against a scrolling backdrop of Portland struggling with passing and/or composure on the ball for some seasons now. A few overlapping pathologies either create or play into this problem. Because I just burned a half hour failing to wrestle this into bullet-points, and my bastard brain refused to tap-out, please consider this stream-of-consciousness up-chuck my first draft at examining the problem:

First, it remains far too easy to force the Timbers to play the ball backwards. As a rule, they run out of thoughts micro-seconds after they run out of anything short of an obvious option. Sometimes a team has to play backwards, I get it, but every reset gives the opposition time to do the same thing. Portland’s default escape from that trap is pushing the ball forward, by foot or pass, expectations of success be damned (you wanton angel!), and, sure, this works often enough that I can’t blame them for trying – particularly when you can hit a 3-5 pass combo that cashes out as GOOOOLLLL – but it still feels limited as a tactic given how often the anything up to and including a stiff breeze gets the Timbers passing the ball backwards. Consider this: 1a) The All or Nothing Problem.

This band might be called "All or Nothing."

When Portland, inevitably (if only because the opposition lets them for a while), gets a foot on the ball and looks to play deliberate, constructive soccer, they seem to default to making the field as big as they can. Spreading the field has a long, proud tradition in the beautiful game, obviously, but the Timbers routinely sabotage the mechanics by…telling players they can’t move toward the ball to receive a pass? Setting that up then ad-libbing through every live exercise, so that no one knows who should step to the ball first, so no one does? If that doesn’t take you back to the worst days of junior high (She’s still waiting for you, Jeremy! Read her yearbook message again!). Bottom line, this works out to everyone watching the player on the ball and waiting for something to happen. Consider this 1b) The Ball-Watching Problem. 

I’d need to interview (and possibly interrogate/torture-tickle) Phil Neville to confirm any of the above (if I wanted the full truth), of course, but I also keep seeing the same issues and that’s the main reason why have watching Phil Neville like a starving hawk tops my list of priorities for 2025. Plenty of teams in MLS play out of pressure, or just play, better than the Timbers do. Some of those teams are terrible (e.g., Chicago), and I can’t think of one good reason why that should continue. I mean, yeah, I’ll keep watching even if they don't fix the problem. And I'll buy AppleTV’s Season Pass and I’ll probably keep talking about all this somewhere until I expel my final breath, but, yeah, I don’t get how this issue has not been locked down over four(?) seasons of trying.

Overall, Timbers 2025 looks like more of 2024. There’s ample powder in the keg, to be sure – Portland’s two top scorers/prime movers from last season have yet to play in this preseason (i.e., Evander and Rodriguez) – but nothing I’ve seen either looks or projects as an improvement on last season. Which, again, wasn’t good, never mind great. That doesn’t mean I’m writing off this team, or thinking they can’t get better; this is me saying that nothing I’ve seen so far looks like progress. With that, let’s drill down to…

Some Specifics
1) I Expected/Expect More
I sincerely believe that this team should have finished higher and stronger in 2024...related, nothing makes fandom as much like parenting as seeing what one wants to see from their special little someones. Still, seeing this team have the same problems they’ve had for the past, shit, three seasons – and don’t give me that “it’s preseason” shit because it’s preseason for Chicago too and they passed circles around the Timbers – does make one wonder, even if it’s only me.

2) re Kevin Kelsy
He looks all right and, encouragingly, he looked more in sync against Chicago than he did against San Jose. Decent speed, decent ideas, instincts all right: So far, Kelsy looks like a project worth pursuing. Personally, I'd start with him over Mora and use Mora as a damned good super-sub.

Came up under "ball watching" somehow...

3) re Joao Ortiz & What Feels Like a Surmountable Lack of Faith
Ortiz has looked…fine so far. Again, I don’t expect more than that, not this early, but this goes back to the “ball-watching” phenomenon flagged above. The player most likely to drop back to find the ball was Diego Chara, at least today, and 1) that’s the role I want to see from Ortiz, and 2) I’m not sure if Phil has the nerve/belief to move past starting Chara and, yeah, that's...concerning. David Ayala got on the ball multiple times today – and to pretty solid effect – but, in the event I haven’t made it clear yet, the Timbers need to find a way to play the ball out of the back. Getting this right will have all kinds of knock-on effects, including solving the problem of playing through a press. Ortiz deserves real time before anyone passes judgment on him, but he’s at the center of this rebuild in my mind. And yet…

4) Whither Paredes?
At his best, Paredes plays like a pure No. 8 - i.e., more chaser than tackler on the defensive side, and eager to make the quick, short forward pass – and that feels like a useful role…provided Portland’s midfield can accommodate it role in a functional starting XI. And that’s without asking what happens when Evander and Santiago Moreno come back. Paredes didn’t get many good looks today – and he passed on one of his better ones before Kelsy teed him up for atonement – but he struck me as the most consistent, therefore best, attacking piece for Portland today. Just food for thought.

5) Yes, I Would Still Sign Tommy McNamara…
…assuming that’s possible. If it meant letting Paredes move on to better things for him, so much the better. That feels like a win-win all ‘round.

4) I’m Happy to See Zup Starting
Thrilled to have the man for another season. Still the best defender on the roster.

5) Ariel Lassiter…
…should push for a starting gig.

6) Ian Smith
Same. He’s looked good every time I’ve looked up.

That’s it for this post and all I’ll be doing until next weekend’s dress rehearsal against Charlotte FC – which, for the record, should be paint-dry boring to watch. Still, I’m hoping it’ll provide some education before the regular season kicks off just one week later.

Related, I’m still working on the coverage model for the 2025 season. To tip my hat a little, I’m quietly pissed that Evander didn’t go to FC Cincinnati, because I am DYING to know what he would have looked like in another system. Against that, I feel fortunate to see what he does with the time he has left with the Timbers, if only somewhat. Till the next post. Broadly, though, I don’t think I’ll be live-tweeting games going forward. If the current plan holds, Sunday will be my “soccer day,” Monday my “writing day” and what I can’t get to doesn’t make it into the content. Till the next post…