Portland Timbers 2-3 FC Cincinnati: Going (Too) Deep on What Is Likely a Hiccup

I wish they'd stop too, my dude.

I had a working theory about both the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati going into Saturday’s game, to wit, Cincinnati (generally) starts strong, then throttles back and invites the opposition back in, while the Timbers like to take their sweet-ass time to get going, sometimes to where they dig themselves into a hole they can’t climb out of.

When Saturday’s 2-3 home loss for the Timbers generally supported both sides of the theory – i.e., Cincy rolled to a 3-0 lead and looked like a fair bet to run away with it before Portland clawed back two goals and piled on enough shots for an equalizer or more – and that got me all a-flutter about confirming the theory, so I circled back to mine both teams’ recent schedules (Cincy's, Portland's) for circumstantial evidence. About 40 minutes of working that mine yielded some data to support theory. It also turned up enough Fool’s gold to recommend sealing up the mine, paying off the creditors, and walking away. Still, to lay some of it out there…

I worked with a 20-game sample for both teams, including Leagues Cup results, while excluding those from the U.S. Open Cup (you ask why, I ask why not?). That period extends back to around the beginning of May, over which time both Cincy and Portland have fared well enough, 10-6-4 and 8-7-5, respectively. The difference is there, of course, and grows a bit more once you dig in.

The Timbers conceded first eleven times total: Portland failed to score in five of those games and, naturally, lost them; of the six other games when they conceded first, the Timbers rallied to win two of them (v COL, v STL), came back to draw two (v SEA, v MIN) and lost the other two (@ SJ, v CIN). The sum of that yields a 2-7-2 record when conceding first across all games and, for some, an upset tummy. That leaves Portland with a 6-0-3 record when scoring first (or sometimes not scoring at all, e.g., the goal-free turd at RSL), a vast improvement, of course, but weighing eleven games against nine comes perilously close to a wash, so, moving on...

Cincy has scored first over 13 of their past 20 games, four of them wins when they blanked the opposition, nine of them games when they scored first. They held on to win most of those games – only a sociopath sneers at a 6-1-2 record – but it did lead to dropped points (3-3 v Dallas), one searing loss (2-4 home loss to Columbus) and arguably some nervy finishes - e.g., the 3-2 “road” win over Monterrey in Leagues Cup and the nail-gnawing end to Saturday’s game. The rest played out as 2-1 wins over Austin, Orlando and Chicago, hardly the end of the world, but breathing easier feels nice too.

I lay all that out less to prove a point – good thing, because it did not – than to…let’s go with allow that that Cincy lives dangerously more than they ought and that the Timbers could benefit from stronger starts, perhaps quite a bit. Now, to pick at some particulars…

About the Game, Briefly
“After a horrific first 40 minutes, the response from the Portland Timbers has been fantastic.”
- Brian Dunseth, near the end of the broadcast

Went to hell because Green Jelly should have.

Cincinnati’s first half was a model of efficiency, a lot of letting Portland huff and puff before running in the opposition direction to fuck up all three little piggy’s houses. Defensive mistakes by the Timbers helped them in each case – e.g., Finn Surman getting stuck between covering Evander and Kevin Denkey on the first goal (while Kamal Miller and (probably) Jimer Fory focused too much on the near post and Juan David Mosquera came too late); paying too much attention to Cincy’s right-side overload and too little attention to Pavel Bucha stepping inside on the second; Kevin Kelsy failing to come back to receive the outlet, sure, but David Ayala (who played the outlet) did as much damage by pantomimically cursing out Kelsy and failing to step to Evander as he wound up to score the game winner. Kelsy atoned for his slip by pulling a goal back for the Timbers immediately after Evander’s - nice chop on that, son -  but Cincy “won” the first half in every way that mattered.

It took the Timbers some time to get rolling in the second half – it’s possible the didn’t meaningfully turn until Cristhian Paredes came on for Joao Ortiz (and, perhaps, when Kenji Mboma Dem and Kei Kamara came on for Ender Echenique and Denkey, respectively) – but they Cincinnati gradually lost control of the midfield (and in the way I’d hinted at in a preview post) to a where they struggled just to play out, never mind keying up the breakaways that broke Portland in the first half. Young Stiven Jimenez, in particular, cracked under the pressure, first with the wild and wildly unnecessary tackle in Cincy’s area that handed Portland their second goal (nice composure, Kev, and more below), second by nearly gifting them another when a ball squeezed between his body and his right arm not much later. Coulda cost ‘em…

The 15 shots Portland fired over the second half felt good and they had a very real chance to equalize on the terminal side of the death (through Antony; see the full highlights), but that feels less relevant right now than the shots on goal number in the final stats. Even if Bucha got lucky (he did; he scores that maybe two times out of ten), both Denkey and Evander made goals out of their best chances and there was an “anything you can do, I can do better” vibe about the chances over the full 90 – e.g., Kamara answered Kelsy’s shot off the crossbar, even if it took him 60 minutes to do so.

That brings up another big picture question…

Portland v Cincinnati, Head-to-Head
I have no polling to support this (not sure it exists, honestly), but I a solid majority of MLS fans and pundits see FC Cincinnati as Supporters’ Shield contenders for reasons that neither begin nor end with the 15 points in the standings that Cincy (now) has over Portland. I’m not sure how many would say the same about the Timbers, but I’m confident it falls miles south of a plurality.

It shouldn't matter, but the Internet...

While Portland has seen its share of drama in 2025 – see the Saga of Santiago Moreno (and whatever that did to the locker room) – and they missed Antony for that month-plus, Cincy lost Denkey for nearly as long, spent most of the season without Obinna Nwobodo (massive, Chara-esque player), and Pat Noonan has been improvising his starting defense since the second half of 2024. To give one example, I can’t remember the last time Nick Hagglund played, never mind started.

There’s the data from the game as well, of course, a fact pattern that includes both Portland hosting the game and Cincy’s powerful road record (9-4-2; related, that leaves just two road games for them). Portland’s starting XI on Saturday came closer to their (current) best XI than Cincy was to theirs, but the only thing keeping them from what has been their regular, conditionally-hobbled lineup was Jimenez starting for the suspended Tah Anunga and Echenique starting over the fitfully-effective Luca Orellano. Those details bury the real lede: Noonan has made things work pretty damn well despite the challenges. As it turns out, having a good foundation goes a long way - and Cincy has one.

I don’t know how much Kristoffer Velde and Felipe Carballo (and Matias Rojas?) will raise Portland’s level between now and the playoffs (next season strikes me as a different question), but even these questions bring me back to the grab-bag of data I lifted from reviewing those 20 results.

Cincinnati has scored 33 goals and allowed 28 over those past 20 games, which, again, includes Leagues Cup and just league, and those numbers make sense for a team with “star” attacking players (Evander has sixteen goals, nine assists; Denkey thirteen goals, one assist) and a defense that gets fresh, but not necessarily upgraded new look every week. Outscoring the opposition has been necessary to keep them near the top, in other words. And, so far, that’s working

The Timbers, meanwhile, have scored 24 goals and allowed 23. I get several things out of that, most of them reasonably encouraging. First and foremost, the front office is adding talent in right places – i.e., the defense has held up well enough (1.15 goals/game over 20 games ain’t bad!), so adding even a few goals scored could go a long way toward collecting the big points. And, sure, Velde feels like a clear attempt to address that, but I’m less sure 1) what’s going on Carballo and 2) even, if they get the Rojas signing over the line, how much he adds at the sharp end. And even that leaves open the question of where/how Carballo and Rojas fit in with the Timbers current midfield (gestures broadly). My biggest anxiety about the near term is that every addition but Velde keeps Portland stalled in an transitional, even experimental phase.

I’ve seen some excitement around those signings, but I don’t wander far, never mind wide looking for second opinions. If I’m being honest, at least 50% of what the Timbers do in any given season feels like tinkering toward midtable. And, as much as it pains me to say it out loud, Cincy has a demonstrated knack for scouting and signing that continues to elude Portland’s front office. Despite hearing one of four incels barking “I’d kill myself if I lived in Cincinnati” over my shoulder all night (no girlfriends, huh?) that doesn’t seem to apply when it comes to them signing players. Including Evander. A striving team presents that way, if with the limitations of this locale or that, but I can't remember the last time the Timbers projected, "we're going places" on the international market.

That’s it for the big picture. Let’s close out this sick puppy with some strays about both teams.

For the Timbers
1) Officially Team Kelsy (& a Related Note about Players Generally)
Even if he didn’t have the best game of any Timber, Kelsy had the most effective one. He scored a fine goal (link above; "nice chop," etc.), but seeing him celebrate his second, ultimately futile goal by running through a high-five chain with the subs bench felt like the kind of club-building, playing-for-this-(motherfucking)-badge the Timbers have lacked since, for me, 2020. (Yes, I chose that date deliberately). On the day-to-day level, aka, very much where the Timbers find themselves right now, Kelsy still feels like the better choice at striker for me.

As people who follow this site know, I watch Cincinnati almost as often as I watch Portland and, to bang a familiar drum, Evander looks happier there, like he believes in the project. That won’t always carry a team over the line, but it can certainly carry one some distance. Portland needs this back.

A real leader always demands everything.

2) A Long Look at David Da Costa
I took advantage of watching the Timbers play live to watch Da Costa, specifically, and that sat me on the therapist’s couch several steps behind his head. To be clear, Da Costa improved quite a bit in the second half – more than anything else, he looked willing to find the ball and go at players, i.e., he understood the mission and attempted it – but…I don’t think that comes naturally for him. For most of the game, and this applies even during his improved second half, Da Costa does his share of wandering around the middle of the field, gesturing vaguely toward joining the play. Insofar as I have any theory on what it takes to make a “proper” No. 10, DEMANDING the ball ranks pretty high. Any player a teams tasks with running the offense should be a guy that wants the job and I’m not sure Da Costa does. For my money, Moreno wanted it more, but that can of worms got chucked off the boat, so…

3) My Latest Gamble
Does anyone have an opinion on Ayala, Ortiz and Paredes starting in the middle of a 4-3-3 with Antony, Kelsy and Velde running wild up top? I’m asking because I want to get the opportunity to form one.

For Cincinnati
1) How Much Depends on Bucha?
I can’t think of a Cincy player not named Evander who had a better game than Pavel Bucha. They’re a few levels better when he’s helping on the attacking side – something Anunga frees him to do with tireless defensive work (and, despite the slips noted above, Jimenez wasn't awful) – and I’d put him down as one of, if not the, most unsung hero of Cincy’s so-far successful 2025. Somewhat related to several things in this post, I see Bucha’s role for Cincy as a good model for what Portland should fish for in Da Costa.

2) The Greatest Worry
Miles Robinson limping was concerning, no doubt. Bracing for updates…

3) The Second Greatest Worry
Which, here, means anything but Miazga losing his shit and getting sent off for a reason you’ve never heard of, Cincy won’t have a league-elite central midfield until Nwobodo comes back. As anyone who has read my posts on Cincinnati knows, I see Anunga as a player who is (quite) capable defensively, but limited on the attacking side. Working around that has been a season-long project and, as noted above, the results have been, y'know, satisfactory. This is probably an issue that only goes live against MLS’s better teams.

If there’s a throughline in all the commentary above, it boils down thusly: Cincy has the attacking talent to hang with MLS’ best and they probably have enough depth in defense to make that come good. That midfield, on the other hand, feels like an exploit ripe for hacking by nefarious inter/intra-state hackers.

To lay out a bottom line for the Timbers, nine points separate them from the third place Vancouver Whitecaps, four from their hated rivals (aka, Seattle); they also have Los Angeles FC between them and the top four, and they have two games in hand. As implied in all the above, all Portland needs is a run – i.e., games where the defense holds as well as it has, while the offense scores more freely – or at least above a -2 goal differential pace. To their credit, they made some moves. Time to see how those pan out…and who loses out.

Till the next one…