Portland Timbers 2-3 FC Cincinnati: Going (Too) Deep on What Is Likely a Hiccup

I wish they'd stop too, my dude.

I had a working theory about both the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati going into Saturday’s game, to wit, Cincinnati (generally) starts strong, then throttles back and invites the opposition back in, while the Timbers like to take their sweet-ass time to get going, sometimes to where they dig themselves into a hole they can’t climb out of.

When Saturday’s 2-3 home loss for the Timbers generally supported both sides of the theory – i.e., Cincy rolled to a 3-0 lead and looked like a fair bet to run away with it before Portland clawed back two goals and piled on enough shots for an equalizer or more – and that got me all a-flutter about confirming the theory, so I circled back to mine both teams’ recent schedules (Cincy's, Portland's) for circumstantial evidence. About 40 minutes of working that mine yielded some data to support theory. It also turned up enough Fool’s gold to recommend sealing up the mine, paying off the creditors, and walking away. Still, to lay some of it out there…

I worked with a 20-game sample for both teams, including Leagues Cup results, while excluding those from the U.S. Open Cup (you ask why, I ask why not?). That period extends back to around the beginning of May, over which time both Cincy and Portland have fared well enough, 10-6-4 and 8-7-5, respectively. The difference is there, of course, and grows a bit more once you dig in.

The Timbers conceded first eleven times total: Portland failed to score in five of those games and, naturally, lost them; of the six other games when they conceded first, the Timbers rallied to win two of them (v COL, v STL), came back to draw two (v SEA, v MIN) and lost the other two (@ SJ, v CIN). The sum of that yields a 2-7-2 record when conceding first across all games and, for some, an upset tummy. That leaves Portland with a 6-0-3 record when scoring first (or sometimes not scoring at all, e.g., the goal-free turd at RSL), a vast improvement, of course, but weighing eleven games against nine comes perilously close to a wash, so, moving on...

Cincy has scored first over 13 of their past 20 games, four of them wins when they blanked the opposition, nine of them games when they scored first. They held on to win most of those games – only a sociopath sneers at a 6-1-2 record – but it did lead to dropped points (3-3 v Dallas), one searing loss (2-4 home loss to Columbus) and arguably some nervy finishes - e.g., the 3-2 “road” win over Monterrey in Leagues Cup and the nail-gnawing end to Saturday’s game. The rest played out as 2-1 wins over Austin, Orlando and Chicago, hardly the end of the world, but breathing easier feels nice too.

Inter Miami CF 0-0 FC Cincinnati: Patience with the Grind & Exorcised Demons(?)

I hear his screams from beyond...

Does MLS still produce the Instant Replay series, the ones where they take a longer look to decide whether a ref fucked up, or did they retire those along with Simon Borg?

Thinking about that time when DeAndre Yedlin gave himself a cramp by falling into the back of some now-forgotten Inter Miami CF attacker somewhere after the 60th minute. That one quacked like a penalty kick, but Tori Penso didn’t call it and VAR didn’t second-guess her, so what’s the point in picking through the log for that particular piece of corn…

…related, anyone else get the feeling MLS keeps controversial calls/non-calls out of the highlight packages they throw together? Just noticed they didn’t include the late winner they yanked away from Miles Robinson in the full highlights for this one either...guess you bury the bodies where folks can’t find 'em… (To their credit, they did post a whole sidebar video on Robinson's thing.)

Inter Miami CF 0-0 FC Cincinnati
About the Game, Very Briefly
Looked sweaty as balls down in Florida and even Miami’s players looked half-cooked by the 80th minute, but both teams played a lively game in the swamp air. The hosts had the better of the game, but Cincy looked to have the better of the chances – particularly after an unstoned viewing of the highlights – and that captures the way the game played out in as few words as I can manage.

Miami’s high, aggressive defending made it hard for any Cincinnati player ahead of Roman Celentano to play the ball facing forward. Balls into the midfield space went backwards or sideways eight times out of ten and seven balls of ten played forward were long and hopeful. The latter (mostly) kept Miami from turning Cincy over in or around their defensive third (mostly; there were some inevitable miscues), but the Orange and Blue did a lot of defending and passing inside their own half. Miami created more chances – Luis Suarez probably shot and teed up their better ones (e.g., the back-post cross to Fafa Picault, saved by Celentano) – and overlapped around Cincy’s left a couple times, but they had to survive more shots on goal and have decent reason to count themselves a little lucky to escape with a point.

FC Cincinnati 2-4 Columbus Crew: Sizing Pat Noonan for a Hairshirt

Wait'll I get this off, you little shit...

After the Columbus Crew scored their fourth goal, the camera panned to a young woman in the stands who alternated between glaring at the field in disbelief and shooting “what the fuck just happened” glances toward her father. Cincinnati’s staff should have escorted that young woman into the locker room (after all the players were dressed and decent, of course) to have her level that same withering glare at every player who suited up for FC Cincinnati on Saturday. Or maybe send in a six-year-old boy still in tears from watching his idols lose. Time for the autopsy…

FC Cincinnati 2-4 Columbus Crew
About the Game
Before getting my hands into the viscera (don’t worry; I don’t do snuff images), I want to preface the general comments with one quick note: the highlights looked worse and more hopeless than the full 90. The final stats weren't so bad, and Columbus held a slim 3-2 lead from the 60th minute and into second half stoppage and Cincy got…kinda sorta back into it with two…vaguely promising stretches of play in the late 70s and the late 80s. It wouldn’t have erased the 60 lost minutes that saw FC Cincinnati’s original two-goal lead evaporate, but a face-saving draw would have been nice, or at least nicer…

As anyone who turned off the world and turned on this game knows, FC Cincy took a two-goal lead before the Columbus Crew got their pants on (Pavel Bucha's opener; Cincy's second fit better down below). Sadly, once they got them on (about 15 minutes in) they commenced to thrashing the home team with their belts. All without their pants falling down…

Mistakes by Cincy’s defense added the final bricks to Columbus’ comeback – first, the deflection off Tah Anunga’s arm (right?), then the own goal/general clustercuss set off by Miles Robinson’s late defensive lunge – but Columbus laid the foundation with two things: by blowing through Cincy’s midfield going forward and smothering Cincy's outlets/transition. This hardly accounts for everything that happened coming at and going out Cincy’s defensive third, but I spotted two things that details that accounted for some of it:

Atlanta United FC 4-2 FC Cincinnati: Bewitched, Bedazzled & Kinda Weird

Plenty to go around, sadly.

As anyone who has interacted with the MLS Season Pass interface knows, it can still slip in the odd the spoiler. For instance, I caught the fact that Miles Robinson scored a goal out of the corner of my eye before starting the full replay, so I had that at back of mind when Atlanta United FC opened the scoring at the 15th minute. I only got halfway through, "nothing to worry about" when Atlanta scored a second goal. I spent the rest of the game hoping that the caption read “Miles Robinson hat trick.” It did not. Atlanta carried that early lead to the final whistle, and only a little uncomfortably, outrunning Cincinnati to a 4-2 win at home.

About the Game
Atlanta looked a (promising) mess over the opening ten minutes with balls played in behind to phantom runs and a full-field defensive shape that looked doomed to watch Cincinnati pull them apart; the two quality shots the visitors created – one a close solo run by Gerardo Valenzuela, the other a sparkling team effort – had the feeling of heavy knocks rattling a door. Next thing you know, Nick Hagglund went down and off on a hard charge by Emmanuel Latte Lath (“I'll show you soft, Ronny!”; weird injury, too; ribs and lung?) and, mere minutes later, Derrick Williams headed home what might have been Atlanta’s first competent pass of the game on a set piece and it was off to the races. Atlanta scored again, of course, with a tap-in by Ajani Fortune five short minutes later after Saba "Well Janice*" Lobjanidze bewitched and bedazzled Lukas Engel on Cincy’s left (* I get so much free delight from closed captioning). From there, a broadcast booth narrative developed that Atlanta had pounced on a defense still working out its assignments. That argument holds up better in a world where Latte Lath didn’t miss two massive, free-free-free opportunities (more on one of those later), all of which fell outside that crucial window. Atlanta had gilded chances at an even half-dozen goals - a rightly shocking note given Cincinnati's typically tight defense - but all those chances ran against an undercurrent of Cincy playing through them with relative ease. That's to say, this was a weird one.

No one knew the game would end where it did when Robinson’s goal finally came just after halftime, of course, especially with Taylor Twellman treating Atlanta’s woes over the first 15 minutes of every second half as a disaster to count on. That note came against the backdrop of some of the best attacking builds Cincinnati has produced all season; the chances rained and the shots poured until they piled up to nearly 30, with nine on goal. Not all of them made Brad Guzan sweat – I’d say Evander’s 60th minute effort gave his Old Spice the biggest workout – but his every save and the 21 shots off target (some of them more wise than good) meant more time playing catch-up for Cincy and with less time to get there. Another defensive breakdown – and on a set piece, again, and with the ball bouncing all over inside the six, again – restored Atlanta’s two-goal margin at the 66th minute, forcing Cincy back into a sprint. The Orange and Blue pulled within one a mere four minutes later when Valenzuela finally got his prize for a great game, but it wouldn’t take look for them to succumb to the game’s other defining feature, fully-bodied defensive breakdowns by the visitors. That hadn’t happened since the opening weeks of 2025 (e.g., the ass-kicking at Philly), but Jamal Thiare insured the win in stoppage time on what must have been Atlanta’s third clean break behind Cincy’s defense. Everything that could go wrong did, basically, and it was more than enough to erase a good amount of right.

Columbus Crew 1-1 FC Cincinnati: A(n Inconclusive) Clash of Titans

AAhhhhhh! Stop-motion!

I skipped a write- up for FC Cincinnati’s 1-0 win at Toronto FC for a couple reasons, its lack of educational value among them. Saturday’s 1-1 draw at the Columbus Crew, on the other hand, checked all the boxes the Toronto win couldn’t, chief among them: seeing how Cincy stacks up against a consensus best team in Major League Soccer. So, let’s get into that..

About the Game
When it comes to getting off on the right fight in a rivalry game on the road, it’s hard to beat scoring the first goal. Cincinnati took that big first step early (6th minute!) when the put a beautiful bow on a shit-show in Columbus’ area with a Kevin Denkey tap-in at the back post. The buildup featured some other encouraging details – e.g., Luca Orellano working Columbus’ left like a masseuse, Evander chipping in with a rare bicycle-kick assist – leaving Cincy fans asking what was there to love about the goal but everything? The host’s long (thoughtful?) response started from that point and, in some ways, lasted until the final whistle. Cincinnati gave as good as they got – particularly through the first half – but, per the final, official stats, they also spent much of the afternoon managing the pressure Columbus piled on. My notes (not the best, fwiw) didn’t flag any great looks for Cincinnati after Pavel Bucha’s well-placed rip toward the left upper 90 of Patrick Schulte’s goal around the 20th minute, so the balance of their highlights came on the defensive side of the ball. Given the venue and opposition, there’s nothing wrong with that; I’d go one further and say I saw plenty to admire, particularly among the last line of defense (to a personal preference, I like to see Matt Miazga step up and Miles Robinson clean up behind him). The full highlights show most of Columbus’ finer moments in both the first and second halves, including a few that, but for the hands/feet of Roman Celentano, would have given them an equalizer or the win (though, mysteriously, it skipped a free, if somewhat tricky header that Jacen Russell-Rowe should have put away). For what it’s worth, I got some bonus comfort out of the fact that it took a penalty kick to beat Celentano and loving embrace that as an indication that Cincy has its shit together in defense and they have decent back-up for the “regular” starters – Miazga, Robinson and Nick Hagglund (who, apart from getting gently, yet justly screwed on the handball that lead to the penalty kick, played a good one). In the here and now, that was good enough to smuggle a point out of Columbus, keep two more from Columbus’ points total, and Cincinnati a nose ahead in the Eastern Conference standings 14 weeks into the season.

All in all, this game pitted two good, well-coached, well-constructed teams against one another and, for the most part, played out on those terms. The main thing I want to see after sitting through that is what Cincinnati looks like when they host the return leg in mid-July. While I didn’t mind seeing them cede possession at a 2:1 fire-sale in Columbus, seeing them get on the ball and dictate periods of the home leg would give me a little more faith in their capacity to do that kind of thing when circumstances require it. I’ll flesh out that thought a little more below, but first…

FC Cincinnati Wins! & an Eastern Conference Round-Up

I've got this! Nothing to worry about!

For readers who follow me on Bluesky (not verified, never will be, but I am me!), this is where the latest iteration of The Plan comes together. Faced with the coming of the annual tradition that is Major League Soccer’s long, largely meaningless summer, the idea of identifying and flagging minute shifts within two teams started to weigh more than I could bear. When something has to give, it’s always going to be FC Cincinnati, i.e., my MLS side-piece.

To announce the next Five-Minute Plan (named for how long these tend to last): I’m sticking with Cincy as a center-piece for coverage, but instead of writing stand-alone posts for them, their games will be one of three Eastern Conference games – or game that involve at least one Eastern Conference team (see below) - featured in a weekly wrap-up post that rolls what they did in with the East as a whole. By way of showing that I still love ‘em true, Cincinnati will be the only games I watch all the way through; I wound up spending between 40-50 minutes on this week's other two featured games – with time added in both cases searching for periods where one of the teams improved in some visible way. (In both cases…they did not.)

The inspiration for the shift follows from a desire to watch more footage and write less about it. If I like this well enough, my Portland Timbers may get the same treatment. Oh, and the Scouting Reports probably are really dead at this point. The Mothership stopped embedding links into the Form Guide (fuckers), and that added at least an hour on the linking/sourcing side. With that, let’s get to the first featured game:

Chicago Fire FC 2-3 FC Cincinnati
The Game, Briefly
Lively, and certainly better than expected. Both teams gave as good as they got, or close to it, and pulled off some smart in-game changes to manage the other’s tactics. The Fire started stronger and arguably (scratch that, definitely) got burned when a trip by the referee opened a full-field counterattack and Cincy’s first goal. Outside a very healthy blip at the start of the first half, the visitors had the better of the game, due mostly to a high-press that 1) flustered a Chicago team compelled to play out of the back by its eccentric, yet popular head coach, and 2) led to Cincinnati’s second goal, when Sergio Santos caught substitute CB Sam Rogers admiring the ball near Chicago’s left corner flag. One of the aforementioned in-game changes – alternating the outlet pass between the channel and the sideline – gave a Chicago a goal in between (31st minute, fwiw), when Jonathan Bamba slipped around a wildly over-committed Miles Robinson and played Hugo Cuypers into a foot-race versus Matt Miazga. Chicago came out determined to erase Cincy’s lead – and made a damn good fist of it (is that phrase real?) – but the Orange and Blue gradually shoved them back and started picking off stray outlets passes. Evander capitalized on one of these when Luca Orellano played him into a one-v-one against Jack Elliott. The Brazilian’s secret power of lulling defenders to sleep then suddenly moving really quickly, omigod(!) kicked in from there and Evander five-holed Chicago ‘keeper Chris Brady from, at most, a 20-degree angle. Cincy wasn’t going to lose a two-goal lead and they generally looked more like scoring their fourth goal than Chicago getting their second, but Miles Robinson had one more gaffe to give, and one more goal to gift. That’s a bit harsh against what happened – i.e., Robinson had already stood up Cuypers when Andrew Gutman bumped into as he chased the ball – but the penalty was given and scored by Brian Gutierrez…

FC Cincinnati 1-0 Red Bull New York: Pour One Out for Daniel Edelman...

The Dream, circa June 2025.

To start with a biographical note, for context: I followed FC Cincinnati really closely through the second half of 2018, damn near all of 2019, through the second half of 2020, barely in 2021, through the middle of 2022, and sporadically in 2023. Based on the number of Word docs I have saved in various folders, that came to around 120 games total of attentive viewing, if with the balance coming in seasons when FC Cincy, for lack of a smarter pair of words, fucking sucked…

…a normal fan/person would have been utterly enrapt in the 2023 Supporters' Shield run, but that just meant less to write about for me. I ran out of ways to say, “still killin’ it, full-time and every day.”

After what looked like a complicated 2024 season – i.e., they looked genuinely competitive until the middle of July and/or the defense broke – I decided to reconnect with Cincinnati as my main East Conference squeeze. If nothing else, it felt like a good anchor for keeping an eye on the East, but it came with the added bonus of watching a team that went through at least two ambitious changes in personnel – e.g., the signing of forward Kevin Denkey and swapping Luciano Acosta for recent Portland Timbers transplant, Evander. Both moves speak to the “not-fucking-around” mentality that Cincy’s front office has embraced after those searing, worst seasons.

Part of the work of getting back into the swing with FC Cincy comes with humbly accepting that I’ll need some time to get to know the latest iteration; the first eight-to-ten games of season will be more about learning than dropping judgments from the mountain top (also, not my style). The goal is to be in full, limbs-swinging double-Dutch mode and capable of seeing what's up with clear, perhaps even cold, eyes by mid-summer. We'll see how that goes, but let's start with (the wild guesswork) and...