MLS Week 20-22 Level Set, the Timbers Place in It & a Wee Austin Scouter

MLS to literally all of its teams.

With the Leagues Cup now behind every MLS team (look at that, clean sweep) and the home stretch on the horizon, I felt like I needed another level set on where teams are around the league. The dive ain’t deep: it’s about 80% looking for patterns over the past 10 games for every team in MLS and 20% “other” – so the analysis doesn’t go much further than “things are okay” or “Jesus Christ, are they okay?” Just to note it, going back 10 games in regular season play takes all the teams below back to the middle of May; a pretty big sample, in other words. Hopefully, the blurbs provided on each team will either confirm an impression, maybe even tell you something you didn’t already know.

As for organization, I decided to go with something simple as the playoffs: each MLS team is grouped below as either Quick (i.e., either above the playoff line or with a fair chance of getting over it by Decision Day) or Dead (i.e., unlikely to make the playoffs, present place in the standings notwithstanding). I went with that looser measure deliberately: some teams look a lot more like “contenders,” others the middlest of mid-table, and most will trot to the end of their season at the exact same clip, but a good run at the right time can go all the way to MLS Cup for any team that makes MLS’s open-armed playoff system, so why get out the fine-tooth comb when I run a ratty old brush through it?

Quick aside: looking at the 2026 standings with the rumored new playoff format floated by Larry(? (Harry? What’s his fuck?) Berg is a fun exercise. I understand the 2027-28 season will feature more conferences and, full disclosure, both eyes and ears glazed over when it was explained to me, but as I understand Berg’s proposed system, the “if the playoffs started today” line for 2026 would be drawn between the determinedly mid-table Red Bull New York and the (frankly) plummeting Seattle Sounders. Everyone on 26 points and above gets in, basically, so that’s eight teams from the East and twelve in the West (e.g., the LA Galaxy and everyone above them, basically, and at time of posting). Have to admit that’s not as bad as I thought, or not much worse than the present system, at least in terms of the invite list.

So, time to get into it. I’ve decided to start with the Dead – i.e., the teams I don't see making the 2026 playoffs – and then run through the Quick. Going backwards feels little more suspenseful, for some reason. But, before getting into that, and because this is a Portland Timbers blog, I’m going to start by seeing how both they and Austin FC, the team they host this weekend, weigh in the balance…plus I also wanted to pad the entry on Austin with a little scouting report.

Level Set 15, Austin FC: Of Tulip Bulbs & Poor Construction Choices

An investment was made...

What follows is a brief history of Austin FC, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed on both sides of that and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., before First Kick 2026. You should count on things happening between here and there.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

Thumbnail History
Austin FC came into MLS pretty hot, publicity-wise – look, Matthew McConaughey! He’s got a drum! – the fans showed up with drums of their own (and trumpets) and did “Keep Austin Weird” proud enough. The stadium looks great and there’s something charming about the way they bathe it in green light every time the home team scores (wait for it). The stage looks great, but…

Austin FC threw everyone a head-fake in 2022, when they finished second in the West and made a deep run in the MLS Cup playoffs (semifinals!). Their inaugural-season ringer, Sebastian Driussi, looked like a brilliant buy by their second season, his supporting cast of Maxi Urruti, Ethan Finlay and (particularly) Diego Fagundez combined with him in beautiful, four-part harmony, and the defense was…average, and goalkeeper Brad Stuver did everything he could to keep it that way (“Stuuuuvvv!”); Alex Ring directed traffic in midfield, Julio Cascante played better than he ever did as a Portland Timber: everything was clicking and the future looked bright. My memory's hazy on this - Austin's not a team I follow closely - but 2022 might have been the same season that pundits never stopped talking about how much Austin was over-performing their metrics. Even if that convo wasn't in 2022, having one super-freak of a season in what has otherwise been a short, barren history makes for a fitting way to wrap one's head around this team. Austin didn't make the playoffs in 2021 – no shame in that, debut season, etc. – but, after that 2022 miracle season, they missed again in both 2023 and 2024. They definitely showed better in 2025 (see below), while somehow still presenting as a team stumbling through another lost season. If you bought Austin FC stock after 2022, that would make you the proud owner of a bunch of tulip bulbs no one else wants. That expansion team stench doesn’t always wash off so easily...