Portland 5-1 Minnesota: Guts, Glory, and Blown Timelines Edition

Two men enter, one man leaves. And keeps the bird.

Had you asked me when I went to bed last night about the side of the field Diego Valeri was on when he scored his penalty kick, I would have said the far side. Had someone disagreed with that, I would have said, “Well, guess there’s only one way to settle this,” and rolled up my sleeves for some deadly-serious arm wrestling.

And yet, I would have been completely wrong. Valeri scored his penalty kick right in front of me. Portland would score four more running toward my seats – Fanendo Adi surged straight toward my seats (if a little under them) when he made his second-half stoppage-time solo raid – but, overall, I lost the hell out of the sense of when just about everything happened in last night's 5-1 win for Portland (just linking to full highlights for now; I'll get links to individual goals up later/probably). In case it’s not clear in the above, my sense of timing would have meant that Valeri scored his penalty kick in the first half.

But Portland scored just one goal in the first half, that ugly, blessed thing by Lawrence Olum poked over Minnesota’s ‘keeper John Alvbage. It might not have been the prettiest goal (OK, no, it was ugly), but it came as a hell of a relief, right? What’s better than an early goal to soothe doubts and calm the jitters?

The way the time-line slipped up has the subtle, secondary meaning: that Portland always looked more or less in control of the game. Between the way my memory works and all the dumb ways I handicap it, most games live in my head as a series of events; sometimes they’re linear, but most often they’re not. For instance, for last night’s game, I never lost track of the fact that Portland scored five goals and that, at some point, Minnesota United FC (wow, that’s the first time I mentioned them?) pulled back a goal. That’s the salient detail – that Portland always had the lead – so the sequence doesn’t matter…or at least that’s what I tell myself so I don’t start asking too many questions about how things are working upstairs. (Where did you put my memory pills, Judy? Randall can’t find them.)

The other thing that didn’t work last night – and this was a bit of a surprise – was Minnesota’s defense. There will always be the question of what leads to any given goal, whether it’s attacking brilliance of defensive idiocy, and I think Portland’s second goal (and the winner) offers up a good case for dissection. While it’s true on the one hand that Portland maneuvered the ball smartly into Minnesota’s final third – the way Alvas Powell played the ball into Adi with his back to goal, and Sebastian Blanco shifted into acres of space outside, where Adi found him for the (inch-perfect) cross to Valeri (who really seems to like scoring with his head this year) – it’s no less true that, on the other hand, Minnesota’s defense didn’t rotate anyone out to Blanco until it was far, far too late.

Major League Soccer 2016/17 Reset. Yeah, All of 'Em, I'm Doing All of 'Em!

Mentor. Enemy.

When it comes to Major League Soccer, I pretty much lose every year. So does everyone else, really – handicapping the league is horse racing and cat herding rolled into one and that’s often chalked up to “MLS being MLS.” That’s quitter talk, though, because by reducing the probabilities against their inverse occurrences, and cross-referencing those against statistical anomalies, then overlaying all that with a graphic representation of OPTA graphics, we can predict which team will win both MLS Cup and the Supporters’ Shield within a margin of error that most 2000s-edition computers would envy if they weren’t stupid boxes of stupid wires…

…or I watched Sherlock a couple nights back and cribbed that idea, plus four or five words (or three; or two) from one of the several monologues Cumberbitch gave in the episode. Which wasn’t bad.

I’m actually getting at a knot I’ll be pulling at all season – e.g., how to best look past all the predictions about what should happen to think more clearly about what is likely to happen, a subtle, probably false distinction, but I’m holding onto it with both hands for now. I’m not saying I’ll pull it off, but I feel like I took a baby step toward a better, clearer noise-versus-signal approach toward the end of 2016, and hope to take another step this year. And, like most babies, I will have my face-plants (hopefully, without any trips to the E.R.).

One thought I’ll be emphasizing, at least till the 2017 season kicks off, is that I will treat both Cup and Shield as separate but equal trophies – and, yes, your own opinions on that (and the dubiousness of that phrasing) be damned. Much, much more on this later (elsewhere, actually), but, broadly, of course every team in MLS will say they’re out to win all three (real) trophies (as in, if you care about the rivalry cups, you, sir or madam, are one cheap date), but a time will come when the Shield is out of reach and, as I see it, a team in that situation should shape their approach to the regular season with clear, cold eyes to winning the Cup.

What I want to do, here, today, with this post, is reset the conversation on all 20 MLS teams to what we know – e.g. to re-center to what happened last year. I’ll do that by posting links to whatever looking back/forward pieces (e.g. 2016 season reviews, plus any “Our List of Needs” posts) I found on some relatively easy-to-find soccer sites (SB Nation blogs and Last Word on Soccer, who turned out to be crazy easy to find). As for trades, transfers and acquisitions, I’ll be treating them as unknowns, even as I’ll be referencing The Armchair Analyst’s permanent floating roster construction article throughout. I’m relying more on links than my own commentary for the simple reason that all those fan sites watch their own team way closer than I do. I’ll add notes and arguments where appropriate.

As to the order of teams, there’s no significance to it. It happens to follow how I bookmarked each of SB Nation’s teams sites, when I did that last year. True story.

On Nagbe, and Rallying the Wounded

Klinsi v. Nagbe

A nice, very Will-Parchman-esque post went up yesterday asking whether the Portland Timbers Darlington Nagbe sabotaged his chances of playing for the U.S. Men’s National Team for so long as Jurgen Klinsmann may reign thereover by refusing an invite to the friendlies against Cuba and New Zealand. First, confession time: I totally missed this whole chain of events; honest, I thought Nagbe was not only in camp, but also on the roster; turns out he wasn’t and, factually, I still don’t care. Second, I think Nagbe made the right decision, because 1) bullshit friendlies; 2) he would have played chump minutes, assuming he played any minutes at all; 3) Nagbe’s club very much needed him more, trust me on this.

Parchman’s piece dwelt on the lose-lose nature of this dynamic – i.e., Nagbe screwed himself due to Klinsmann’s essentially vengeful (petty? let’s go with petty) nature, while Klinsmann hurt the National Team by losing a player of Nagbe’s…particular set of skills – but there was one phrase in the whole mess that, me being me, I zeroed in on:

“…it’s fair to say Klinsmann was still attempting to figure out where Nagbe fit in his ever-shifting tactical construct.”

Isn’t this universal, really? Or, to phrase this as an actual question, have the Timbers figured out where Nagbe fits, really?

In spite of playing one of his better attacking games of the season last weekend, this space has argued, and probably will always argue, that Nagbe isn’t a winger. There are multiple reasons for this (e.g. disposition, proclivity, where Nagbe makes the most difference, etc.), but, yes, I believe Nagbe’s best in the middle and I’m good sticking to that argument. Dissuade me if you wanna.

Timbers Top Columbus (Again), Through Distorted Lenses

When I look at the world, I only see the cracks.

I was told tonight – or, rather, I was reminded – that I tend to approach subjects from the negative. It's a fair point, all in all, especially seeing as how most of the thoughts I have about the Portland Timbers first-ever March win in the Caleb Porter Era (long may it last; or may it last so long as Caleb brings home the sweet, sweet bacon) do lean a little toward the negative – e.g. Dairon Asprilla is good, but is he good enough? Lucas Melano is fine, but at that price?

There are rose-tinted lenses, then there are whatever the fuck I wear. All I know is that I'm pretty sure the bastards aren't Ray-bans. In an attempt to go against that trend, I'll start with all the things about tonight's epic (in the context of past months of March) win over last year's final victims, Columbus Crew SC.

Jermaine Taylor Is Fine at Left Back
Yes, he's never going to transform Portland's attack from that position, but I think that anytime the Timbers have a game where they want a lock-down(-ish? –esque?) performance out of a left back, Taylor offers a pretty reasonable option. His speed is decent and, this is key, defending is his strength. So, there's one plus.

Alvas Powell Is a Fine Right Back (yes, that's right back)
Powell had a great defensive game today; the best bit came when he so powerfully shielded the ball from Columbus' Shaun Francis, that, in the grips of child-like enthusiasm, Francis could only show his appreciation by climbing on Powell's back for a piggy-back ride. Wheee!! In all seriousness, I would love to ship Powell to...mutually better pastures. Trouble is, I can't do that until Portland replaces Powell with an upgrade. Here, I'm talking about a right back who visibly upgrades Powell in the attack while defending, oh, 3/4 as well as Powell. Basically, I rate Powell pretty damn highly as a defender, while I'd argue he attacks...less well than he should.

Portland v. Houston Preview (Plus (some of) the Rest of Week 16)

Eat my cleats, bitches!!

Here's the thing: the last time I had big ideas about how the Portland Timbers can win against the Houston Dynamo, this happened (or, for a neutral interpretation, this). So, lick this salt lick (for your grain of salt) and keep reading.

I’ll keep this preview particularly brief. One of the biggest reasons for brevity? Houston's level generally floats around a line that reads "undefined." The other reason is equally straightforward: Portland played Houston just over a month ago. It's not like a ton has changed since then. Erick "Cubo" Torres still hasn't arrived, not that it's hurt Houston all that much. Then again, Giles Barnes will be gone Saturday, and for a while after besides. Barnes had arguably cooled off a little after a torrid late April/early May, but he's down toiling in the Copa America for this one. So, big plus: one less thing to worry about...wait, two less things. Houston is also down Jermaine Taylor (because, another Jamaican).

So, who does that leave for the...what do Houston call themselves? The day-glo Orange? Regardless, I'm guessing that their line-up for the last game, warts and all, comes pretty close to what they'll field Saturday night in Portland...or not. Turns out their June 5th game came before Barnes and Taylor's departure. That leads to the obvious question: who replaces both of them? First, I'm guessing that Raul Rodriguez goes back to central defense, while Kofi Sarkodie slots in at right back. As for Barnes' spot...in all honesty, they have a pair of interesting options: Rob Lovejoy, who, apart from having a name worthy of a 70s snuff film, scored at least one brilliant goal in 2015, but there's also Mauro Manotas, who...so far as I know, hasn't suited up for the sweaty Houston club this season.

I guess the point is, Houston will field a pretty comfortable back four and, while they'll miss some continuity up top, they're replacing all of one person, really. (Wait, really? Well, near as I can tell, yes.)

To turn this the other way, what do the Portland Timbers do about all the little of the above?