Vancouver v. Portland: One Game and A Whole Lotta Marbles

When life gives you grapefruit, make grapefruitade.

In my brief (won’t lie) researches for this post, I noticed the MLSSoccer.com’s injury page lists Diego Valeri as “OUT,” with an “undisclosed injury.” On reading that, I hit up twitter, where @KipKesgard helpfully informed me that Timbers Brass will decide Valeri’s fate/health on game day. Now, personally, I’m guessing that Brass’ll slip a little “happy, numb, numb” into Valeri’s veins, and pray his hamstring doesn’t explode during or after the match. After all, Sunday’s game, when the Portland Timbers will face the Vancouver Whitecaps in BC, will be that most exotic of creatures in Major League Soccer, a decisive game.

I think Valeri will make it, and it’s fairly important that he matters out there (so whatever drugs they use better include active ingredients that confer at least the belief in god-like strength and self-belief, e.g., whatever Tom Cruise is on). For the reasons why, I’m going to pass on @Shotboxer told me when I asked him for notes (because I didn't watch it) on the Timbers’ midweek draw-that-was-a-loss to Deportivo Saprissa (the bit I’m fixating on in bold):

“I think we played well enough given the circumstances. In the first half it felt like our passing was crisp and in form. I think part of that was Saprissa played like a team with a point lead on the road on a weird and wet pitch. It was fairly clear that we couldn’t break them down. Regardless petty good effort for a team with little depth and its two best players out.”

When you need to win, you need to score and Valeri sure seems like the guy most likely to make that happen (see: 13 goals, 7 assists; and, holy poop, how did Portland win 2015 with Valeri at those numbers?!). Aside from Fanendo Adi, not a lot of other Timbers have posted the kind of numbers to steel fans’ spines, but Adi will be busy bodying up against the ‘Caps Kendall Waston, one MLS’s bigger defenders, so, yeah, now would be a great time for Lucas Melano to come good on the investment. Or for Darlington Nagbe to channel his inner rage demons (think about all that time on the U.S. Men’s bench, darling, and let it make you powerful!) and post a hat-trick. Speaking of Waston. And Vancouver…

Previewing the Portland Timbers Most Winnable Road Game, and the Rest of MLS Week 30

This'll make sense by the end (Credit: 3dmetrius)

“This is MLS. The regular season breaks everyone, and afterward some are strong in the broken places. Those are the teams that figure out how to win titles.”
- Matt Doyle, The Armchair Analyst, September 19, 2016

I used to describe Major League Soccer’s regular season (or I did once) as an extended dress rehearsal that leads up to the playoffs. I think the quote above adds a wrinkle to the thought and a good one, in that it hits at some challenges that my shorter version understates. As each of MLS’s 20 teams work to become one of the two casts tapped for the final production (MLS Cup), circumstances force them to throw understudies onto the stage if their first-choice leads fall ill (or just start sucking) and, when both the lead and understudy fail, they suddenly have find entirely new actors, get them caught up on the script, the blocking, etc. As if that’s not complicated enough, some key players get to acting up on the set, so the, uh, money guys (? referees...look, it’s not a perfect analogy) send them off to rehab (fines/suspensions), and that just blows more holes in the cast, and so on. Next thing you know, the sets on fire, the director’s banging the producer, and someone forgot the goddamn breakfast spread.

Anyway, enjoying the MLS regular season is about enjoying that team-molding/team-building process, really, as opposed to the individual match results. It’s working those casts into shape, so they won’t melt under the spotlight when the competition to reach the final production really heats up.

Speaking of process, I’m working toward posting to this space only once a week. I’m not exactly growing the audience (I’d like to thank erratic posting and jumping between platforms for their contribution), and, to be open about it, so long as not all that many people are reading either of them, I’m just more interested in posting other stuff right now. I figure it’s my irrelevance, so I may as well enjoy it. Anyway, I plan on posting on Mondays and to lead with Portland Timbers stuff, while still going global as I reasonably/brief(ish)ly can on the rest. I’m less interested in total coverage than perspective and talking points. I’ll see how that pans out and go on from there. OK, turning now to a fairly regular (and final) preview-only post...

Open Letter to Darling: A Quiet Hit on a Quiet Man

When this man says, "let's tear it up," you do it.
(Strained reference to Something's Gotta Give")

Darling – can I call you, Darling? – look, we need to talk...

I’ll hang up the first-person open-letter gimmick. I doubt I could sustain it, for one, but there is something about Darlington Nagbe that begs for a reassessment – and this is borderline Come-to-Jesus-on-Judgment-Day - whether it’s his, um, too-subtle production or his approach to the game.

Before diving into...everything, let me pass on the necessary disclaimers. Yes, he’s talented, extravagantly so: the man pairs feet soft enough to polish bird-bone-brittle china with the strength, balance and durability to survive a half-dozen instances of naked assault and battery every single game and still keep the ball at his feet. And just about all season long, too. He has had his games - he carried the Portland Timbers through the early part of this injury-plagued 2015 campaign – and he has had his moments (ah, sweet, sweet #18). But has he had enough of either?

And, yet, for reasons I assume most people know and just about everyone can appreciate, Nagbe drives me fucking crazy. The short version comes in two parts: 1) while he’s fine attacking defenders with the ball, he’s maddeningly timid about attacking space without it; and 2) he’s under-achieving, obviously, one could even argue dramatically. All I can think when people enthuse about him joining the U.S. Men’s National Team is…why? Does he need another score-sheet to avoid, or something?

I don’t actually hate Nagbe; it’s like hating, I dunno, a cow or a chameleon or some other pleasant animal. He does, however, inspires me to call up a thesaurus to find some perfect word between “irk” and “hate,” one seasoned with a couple shakes of “resent.” “Scorn” feels like the best fit, due to its association with words like “reject” and “refuse.” (Let the record show that I was tempted by “discommode” and “incommode” – because, “commode,” because funny – and “discommode” comes pretty close, but, as with “irk,” it implies only mild exasperation).

Why is that? My argument is that, something’s gotta give. Whether it’s internal to Nagbe – on which I’ve stopped holding my breath for fear of suffocation – or doing something different with him. Three options lurk in that prior sentence:

Portland v. Houston Preview (Plus (some of) the Rest of Week 16)

Eat my cleats, bitches!!

Here's the thing: the last time I had big ideas about how the Portland Timbers can win against the Houston Dynamo, this happened (or, for a neutral interpretation, this). So, lick this salt lick (for your grain of salt) and keep reading.

I’ll keep this preview particularly brief. One of the biggest reasons for brevity? Houston's level generally floats around a line that reads "undefined." The other reason is equally straightforward: Portland played Houston just over a month ago. It's not like a ton has changed since then. Erick "Cubo" Torres still hasn't arrived, not that it's hurt Houston all that much. Then again, Giles Barnes will be gone Saturday, and for a while after besides. Barnes had arguably cooled off a little after a torrid late April/early May, but he's down toiling in the Copa America for this one. So, big plus: one less thing to worry about...wait, two less things. Houston is also down Jermaine Taylor (because, another Jamaican).

So, who does that leave for the...what do Houston call themselves? The day-glo Orange? Regardless, I'm guessing that their line-up for the last game, warts and all, comes pretty close to what they'll field Saturday night in Portland...or not. Turns out their June 5th game came before Barnes and Taylor's departure. That leads to the obvious question: who replaces both of them? First, I'm guessing that Raul Rodriguez goes back to central defense, while Kofi Sarkodie slots in at right back. As for Barnes' spot...in all honesty, they have a pair of interesting options: Rob Lovejoy, who, apart from having a name worthy of a 70s snuff film, scored at least one brilliant goal in 2015, but there's also Mauro Manotas, who...so far as I know, hasn't suited up for the sweaty Houston club this season.

I guess the point is, Houston will field a pretty comfortable back four and, while they'll miss some continuity up top, they're replacing all of one person, really. (Wait, really? Well, near as I can tell, yes.)

To turn this the other way, what do the Portland Timbers do about all the little of the above?

The Revolution Comes to Portland: A Preview (+ More MLS Week 14!)

Like New England, only with WAY better kits.

(Editor's NOTE: The rush of a week’s worth of new sights and sounds meant I never made time to circle back to the Portland Timbers' win over the Colorado Rapids. (Bad amateur pundit!!) As such, that will inform the preview below as...context, I guess? And only in the first paragraph.)

For those who haven't heard, this weekend's game against the New England Revolution affords the Timbers the opportunity to do something they've failed to do since ascending into the Major League Soccer orbit – i.e. win three games in a row. One would think that, surely, Portland managed this during the annus mirabilis that was 2013, but apparently not. It’s not inconceivable that trip-‘n’-sputter run goes all the way back to the Timbers USL days…not a ton of hot streaks come to mind (but, yes, in 2009; holy...they even managed a five-game streak!).

Will the visiting Revolution squad play a sufficiently pliable (Homecoming) victim? Tough to say. As I think everyone knows by now, neither Jermaine Jones nor Juan Agudelo will suit up for New England on Saturday (injury and international absence, respectively). Such details sweeten Portland's prospects a little given the Revolution's recent run of form. Let's just say that games 4-9 (5-0-1) treated New England a hell of a lot better than games 10-14 (0-1-4). Game-day opposition might have played a role - the clubs beat in their earlier, glory run (e.g. Colorado, the Philadelphia Union (at their worst), and Real Salt Lake) are on the opposite side of the standings from the clubs they faced in later, leaner games (e.g. DC United, Sporting Kansas City, and the Los Angeles Galaxy) – but there's something neither here nor there, and both here and there, about New England in 2015.

To clarify that last mess with clean numbers, the Revolution scores like Seattle, but defends like New York City FC (well...that's among others with the latter, honestly, but most clubs who come near their 18 goals-against aren't doing so hot).

Excited as I am about this one (and I get to go to (half-)watch it live!), this game, along with several others, let Week 14 shape up pretty nicely. I'll do little bullet/point-of-interest previews for those games after previewing the main event: Portland Timbers v. New England Revolution. Let's go with...five talking points this time.

Toronto FC v. Portland Timbers: A Clash of Fine China

Next-level Red Rover....

To shorten these preview posts a bit, I’m going listicle on the Portland Timbers’ previews and, when looking ahead to other games, I’ll stick to talking up (or down) only those with a good hook/angle. And, yes, this Wednesday game business is driving me goddamn nuts, because Sporting Kansas City v. New England Revolution? That there was a quality match-up, friends. It looked just as good on the menu as it did when it arrived on the table. (A missed penalty, a dubious penalty, big soccer players making big soccer plays; had it all, I tell ya!)

On to the main attraction: Toronto FC v. Portland Timbers. First, let’s set the stage...

Toronto FC. The buzz-boys of 2015. Major League Soccer’s big spenders. As Twitter announced yesterday, they spent over three times what the Timbers did to create their roster (just north of $20 million versus just short of $6 million). And what has all that scratch bought them? Three points fewer than Portland – though they can go even on points by winning this weekend and a keep a game in hand to boot.

Will they do it? The trends read better than the results, at least some of them. TFC started 2015 on a seven-game road-trip. Said trip started great and ended well, but a chasm yawned between in the form of five straight losses that surely reminded every Torontonian of a deeply-cursed former life (shudder to think of the atrocities committed by the former selves of every player who has ever pulled TFC’s red jersey over his shoulder). But two wins in their final road games (cough, Orlando, cough, in the bad days, cough, cough, Philly!) sent TFC rolling back to an embiggened BMO Field confident and hungry. The schedule handed TFC an opponent that looked entirely beatable, too, in the Houston Dynamo. A clear day broke. Toronto fans provided the theater, chanting and marching their way to the field. Promise swelled like the biggest, ripest fruit the club had ever seen...only to burst into a rancid puddle when Houston cut into the skin.

Toronto didn’t do so great against the New England Revolution last weekend, either; most reports I read said the draw flattered them, so there’s that, too. So, will Toronto make that big, beautiful stadium bounce when the Timbers come to town?

Portland Timbers v. Vancouver Whitecaps, Plus MLS Week 8 Previews

A fate to be avoided....

All the best stuff happens in Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference for Week 9: DC United hosting Columbus Crew SC; New England Revolution v. New York Red Bulls; hell, even Philadelphia Union v. Toronto FC, if only to see if either the Union can sink deeper than the ocean floor, or Toronto can’t revive any team’s dreams of a better season.

I’ll get into all that below (briefly*), but I have to start with my preview for the game that hits closest to me.

(* I’m sure I’m not the only person who reads some of what I post here and thinks, "Yes, yes, you’re very clever. Please kindly get on with it.")

Portland Timbers v. Vancouver Whitecaps! Part Dos!

I somehow got it in my head that the Timbers had its best outing of the season the last time they played Vancouver. A couple errors in thought, there: 1) the win over FC Dallas – i.e. the hopeful highlight of this worrisome 2015 – came the weekend after; and 2) it turns out I crapped all over everything and everyone except Nat Borchers and Liam Ridgewell up to and until they 70th minute. It appears Portland turned it around after.

Related note: my gods, I am a bitchy, bitchy man. Good thing I don’t coach the team...

At any rate, my review of Portland's loss to Vancouver makes for interesting reading – especially in light of the somewhat trying times between here and there. First, and I note this fully aware that he has generated a lot of what offense the Timbers have managed, I stand by comments on Darlington Nagbe (e.g. the stuff about how long he keeps the ball and why he should shake that up – and more than a little; see second talking point). Second, and most painfully and obviously, mind the persistent, recurrent defensive gaffes; further, note that if it’s not Borchers and Ridgewell, it’s Kwarasey (see; MLS Week 8, e.g. "The Playful Kitten Goal"). La plus ca change, etc.

This week, however, something will change. Timbers fans know neither when, nor for how long, but the Timbers brass have been talking up Diego Valeri's return for this Saturday's game. This is, unequivocally, good news. No one player has made Portland's attack better, or more coherent, than Valeri over the past couple seasons. And yet, it's very, very wise to temper near-term expectations. Not that I’m speaking from actual knowledge, but I don’t think he’ll start, or even go 60 minutes; moreover, I wouldn't want Valeri out there for all that long. Ease the man in, and for the love of Christ do absolutely nothing that even remotely risks aggravating his injury. Ahem. All I want just a taste of Diego, a little early-season, one-nibble appetizer that will assure me that I’ll enjoy, what will be, a five-course goddamn extravaganza served up by Chef Valeri for the rest of the goddamn season.

As such, the rest of this preview (not much to go; stay with me!) will assume no, or minimal Valeri. On to some bullet points:

1) How I Want The Timbers to Line Up

And, wow, I LITERALLY just changed my mind on this. I was about to advocate for the 4-4-2 with an eye to getting the Timbers' overall line of engagement higher up the field. Given that the 'Caps attack best when they attack in transition, this feels like the opposite of what Portland should do. To throw something out there, I believe that Portland's 4-2-3-1 is a 4-5-PR-Stunt-1 – that’s to say, I think the club lays that out to put an attacking line-up on paper, while the team functions in a fairly defensive shape. I’m OK with this. Albeit with a caveat...

2) What (Former) Captain Jack Said

"The reality is our main role is on the defensive side."

That comment came up in comments Jack Jewsbury made about Valeri's impending return. And there's something a little disturbing in it. Last weekend, especially, Portland punched even with an essentially punch-less Seattle Sounders squad; I read this as a failure to commit numbers forward. Even if you don't accept that particular premise, please assume it in service of the following point: if Portland wants to win – and this is until Valeri’s return – the team needs to send either FC Jack (new nickname for Jewsbury) or Diego Chara (nickname pending) forward with some regularity. This isn’t an easy call, by any means, because I feel both players suffer their own limitations, but I’d make it FC Jack; Chara covers ground and breaks up play more effectively, and I think his passing is safe to the point of being obvious. Bottom line, though: Portland needs another player closer to the attack and more often. Diego will provide this soon, but the club needs something in the now.

3) Scouting Vancouver

When I think of the 'Caps in the context of them facing Vancouver, one name sticks with me: Octavio Rivero. Yeah, his goals have dried up a little since his early-season days of stealing the 'Caps three points on the weekly, but his upside, and the challenge he poses, becomes immediately clear if you watch even what he did in a wild effort against DC United last weekend. In a word, the man is relentless. He's mobile to boot – which gets at the clammy, arrhythmically-beating heart of the matter. If there's a big weakness among all of Portland's defenders, it's tracking players. A slippery shit like Rivero requires a lot of attention. Worse, he's got a cast of great-to-rockstar midfielders feeding him. Key on him too much, another Canadian (actual, or honorary/temporary) gets free; go back to them, and suddenly you’ve lost Rivero again.

The second point is this: Vancouver's defense has exactly two weaknesses: Pa Modou Kah and Kendall Waston's temper. Both outside backs are really, really good – even their depth is sound. Basically, scoring on the 'Caps will be hard. Matias Laba being out does hurt them, but Gershon Koffie is a solid back-up. And Russell Teibert's a straight-up pest.

Bottom Line

I feel that patience is key. If the Timbers have to chase this game, it's going to be three-legged-race complicated. The advice I have reads like so: start in an honest 5-4-1 to feel out the game, but definitely shift that thing to that 4-2-3-1 before too much of the 90 is gone.

I have some faith in this one. Honest.

OK, on to the rest of the mess.

Houston Dynamo v. FC Dallas

I feel goals in this one. Houston ships 'em, Dallas scores 'em. But it's April/May, Dallas' Season of Suck. Plus, there's a cannon involved! Eeeeeee!

Real Salt Lake v. San Jose Earthquakes

The equation is a little ugly on this one: RSL struggles to score, but defend pretty well; same goes for San Jose (from what I gather: all I know for sure is that I’m honoring my personal pledge to sit through the full 90 of a San Jose game for the first time this season).

Philadelphia Union v. Toronto FC

Philly's desperate energy meets Toronto's capacity to genuinely ball when they want to...and to cough up back-breaking goals: throw this one in a box, shake it up, and dump the contents on the ground. More interesting than most games this weekend, if you ask me. If I'm the Union, I am absolutely keying on Nick Hagglund.

DC United v. Columbus Crew SC

Cold, calculating discipline (DC) against (intended) artistry (Columbus). Kei Kamara ability to win just about everything passed/lofted toward him helps even out the physicality a little, along with the Crew’s back of feisty Argentines. DC doesn't need the ball to beat anybody. Which makes them a little maddening.

New England Revolution v. New York Red Bulls

The next feature in what promises to be a fun 'n’' full weekend (exception: DC v. Columbus; and Portland v. Vancouver, probably; or if only for the locals). The thing to watch here: if Red Bull can't get their infamous/occasional roll-‘em-like-drunks press rolling, New England's going to take full measure of their defense. In other words, this sucker could get awfully revealing...

Los Angeles Galaxy v. Colorado Rapids

One injury-ravaged squad meets another injury-ravaged squad. Add heavy legs for the Rapids and a home game for the Galaxy and this one appears pretty straightforward: three points for LA, only without the valiant effort. I'm expecting 1-0. Sadly, there will be no grudge match for Marcelo Sarvas (not that he’s ever so much as hinted at that mind-set).

Sporting Kansas City v. Chicago Fire

Another one with promise. If you have not watched David Accam play for Chicago, do yourself a favor and watch David Accam play for Chicago. I'm guessing (and I totally mean that) that KC lives and dies in this one according to how well they boss the midfield. And I mean that in the negative sense. If they can keep Chicago in front of them, I think they get this one.

New York City FC v. Seattle Sounders

I simply cannot imagine this will go well for NYCFC...

All right. That's the weekend ahead. Savor this one, people. Then again, this is from the same guy who thought Week 8 would suck.

Portland Timbers Review/Preview, Week 4/Week 5: Little Things, When Big Things Are Needed

Portland needs this guy. He's pinning stuff down blind.

Caught in a crazy, busy week here at Conifers & Citrus, I don't have the time to do the usual Tour d'Agony through all that Portland Timbers-related commentary and speculation. Then again, is it really necessary? I mean, we all know happened, right, in that distasteful loss to the Vancouver Whitecaps? A mighty comeback, even a near-win via Fanendo Adi's second crack at damn, dirty David Ousted (there's yer twitter handle, son; I suggest you take it), undone when That Goddamn Pass met a Keystone Kops Kaper from Nat "Natty Bo" Borchers and Liam [Nickname Pending] Ridgewell ("Ridgey" is wholly inadequate). It's a sad song, but at least we all know the tune.

Even with Matthew "The Armchair Analyst" Doyle threatening to provide numbers that demonstrate that Darlington Nagbe roared like a lion through March (on Twitter; and then Doyle provided; well worth the read), I'm done looking back...Oh, all right!

I'll keep my over-arching point short and sweet. Sure, the second defensive collapse of the season is a big, glum cloud, but a silver lining surrounds it: the Timbers played decently last week, and are playing decently enough, despite the absence of two key players (arguably more once one throws in Ben Zemanski, who can help kill games, and Jack Jewsbury, who (I don't care what anyone else says), provides a range of passing in deep midfield that helps the team overall). Portland has been in every game, complete with good-to-great spells. It's just pinning down the result that causes the headaches and absence of points.

This week's brief Tour d'Agony supported that point and it didn't. Stumptown Footy's Chris Rifer put together what was, in all honesty, a compact, yet nutritious review of the season so far in service of arguing that coaching isn't the problem. And, yep. Chris Gluck compiled a bunch of stats for the same site, which revealed where the Timbers came short. Or didn't. That's the funny thing with numbers, when it comes to soccer: too many damn variables – e.g. possession against this team isn't possession against that team. Gluck notes the averages, though, which I'm sure communicates something. Uh...moving on to the familiar ground of naked speculation.

Portland Timbers v. Real Salt Lake, Week 1 Preview (Oh Yeah!)

Images for "sunken mattress" are surprisingly rare.

(Editor's Note: I doubt I'll do much for weekly previews this season. I plan on posting a look back/look forward piece on the Timbers every Wednesday (or Thursday), plus after-action reports. That's the plan, anyway. Moving on...)

I have now read, watched and digested every 2015 season preview for Real Salt Lake that I care to. I even sat through the (oddly, yet soothingly, casual) "Catching Up with Cassar" segment posted on RSL's website (the overall production vibe made me feel like I was talking to a high school guidance counselor – who wears a toque to the office for some damn reason). All those deal with what interested parties can expect from the Utah club this year. Today, I'm only thinking about is what to expect on opening weekend when RSL comes to play the Portland Timbers. Which arrived in spite of many labor-related obstacles. Hallelujah and Amen.

What I Expect...
A draw, possibly goal-less, and an emotionally-conflicted, hence needlessly-distracted, Nat Borchers.

And Why...
As noted in my own season preview for the Timbers, I have decent faith in the current squad. Going a little against standard practices, this post presumes a certain level of knowledge and currency about the Timbers – e.g. injuries/absences for Will Johnson and Diego Valeri; the absence of certain replacements and the resulting loss of their respective strengths; new playing pieces, etc. The idea is to look forward.