Austin FC Scouting Report: Eating the Sandwich

EAT IT, WUSS! (...and never shit again)

The Portland Timbers hosted Austin FC in Week 2 of the 2025 season, so who knew the Texans would be returning the favor so soon? Portland won the game on a late, weird goal and a wrote a whole damn match report that more or less dismissed Austin’s chances for the season…and what do they do but win three straight?

In other news, I can't get the video on the Mothership to fly and that is scrambling all of my shit. Not that this is immediately relevant…

Austin FC
4-2-0, 12 pts., 5 gf, 3 ga (+2); home 2-1-0, away 2-1-0
Last 6 Results: WLLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v SKC (1-0 W); @ POR (0-1 L); v COL (0-1 L); @ LAFC (1-0 W); v SD (2-1 W); @ STL (1-0 W)

Notes from the Field
Both teams have little streaks going, of course, but Austin has three games to Portland’s two and they smuggled six points out of tough venues – e.g., Los Angeles FC’s BMO Stadium and St. Louis CITY FC’s Energizer Park. Slide the win versus the theretofore unbeaten San Diego FC as a nice slice of well-cured pastrami between those two and you have yourself one hell of a sandwich. New head coach Nico Estevez has them grinding out every result they earn – show me a multi-goal win in the above list of results – and the secret to Austin’s early rise to second MLS’s Western Conference owes something like 60% of its success to its defense (i.e., five goals scored, three goals allowed; don’t call it stupid, a major economy just adopted the same logic). After sitting through about 30 minutes of Austin’s win at St. Louis and around 45 minutes of that home win over San Diego, two big-picture details stood out: a broad aversion to risk and the absence of a player that presented and played like a No. 10.

Notes on Formation & Personnel
Estevez has played a 4-3-3 and a pair of 4-4-2s (par example), but he has so far only tinkered with the personnel. The back four typically starts with Brendan Hines-Ike paired with Oleksandr Swatok as center backs and Guilherme Biro and Jon Gallagher to their left and right, respectively. Both fullbacks get forward quite a bit, but Gallagher gets way the fuck up there, more like a wingback. Owen “Son of the Prior Coach” Wolf and new kid Besard Sabovic have been the constants in midfield and, for what it’s worth, I’d call Wolff the closest thing they have to a playmaker. Ilie Sanchez generally starts and/or provides a composed, deep-lying passing hub and I think they like to get their live-wire No. 8, Daniel Pereira, out there often as they can (he missed the road win at LAFC, don’t know why). I suspect a 4-3-3 suits them better because it allows them to start a midfield three of Pereira, Sabovic and Wolff and to push Osman Bukari into a pure attacking/winger role – a choice that pressured St. Louis’ left just long enough for Austin to go ahead through Albanian striker Myrto Uzuni. I haven’t seen much of Uzuni – he didn’t play versus San Diego – but he presents as a poacher, i.e., I didn’t see a ton of him coming back for the ball or combining. Brandon Vazquez leads Austin’s line in just about every way you can think of. He finally broke his duck against San Diego, but a sterling season for FC Cincinnati aside, he appears to have reverted to his hard-working, low(ish) scoring roots as a forward.

New England Revolution Scouting Report: Where Improvement Meets Failure

Builder of dreams? Master of delusions?

Their fortunes haven’t been so good and for some time. After showing up in 2023, the New England Revolution damn near fell off the map in 2024 – only the San Jose Earthquakes strayed into “Thar Be Dragons” – finishing 16 points out of the real playoffs (and nine points below the play-in round) and one slim point above Chicago Fire FC/the abyss. Caleb Porter and The Organization overhauled the roster over the off-season – see the line up /subs in last week’s 2-1 win over Red Bull New York versus the Decision Day line up/subs that handed Inter Miami CF the all-time single-season points record – which brings things current.

New England Revolution
1-3-1, 4 pts., 3 gf, 6 ga (-3); home 1-2-0, away 0-1-1
Last Results: DLLLW (yep, just five games played so far)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ NSH (0-0 D); v CLB (0-1 L); v PHI (0-2 L); @ NYC (1-2 L); v RBNY (2-1 W)

Notes from the Field
Toward the beginning of last weekend’s broadcast, the color commentary guy announced New England had fired just 5 shots on goal in 2025. This has been confirmed. Their first goal of 2025 was an own-goal scored by New York City FC’s Thiago Martins (who, just to note it, had the audacity to lose his shit at his back-line colleagues after last weekend’s collapse at Atlanta United FC after that). How many shots did the Revs fire on goal in that one? Just one. Out of six total. Having sat through about 40 minutes of that game, I’d note a few things: 1) the Revolution didn’t look as incompetent as those top-line numbers suggest, you could see the green shoots, etc., and 2) as suggested by their other top-line numbers (e.g., 6 goals allowed), they can defend. The latter gets a bit sloppy in transition – and NYC took advantage, if just once – but it’s not defense that’s killing them. Also of note, the Revs started 2025 against taller opposition than some, maybe even many. That can be looked at two ways, of course – i.e., are those teams good, or does New England make them so by being bad? – and that’s where recent trends come in. The win over the Red Bulls – which came fucking late, by the way, and after a build-up held together by spit and the gospel according to Norman Vincent Peale (see full highlights?) – was the first time they’d won the xG battle all season (and they posted some harrowing numbers prior). They looked good for it too – had a couple things going on – e.g., Carles Gil feeding Luca Langoni through the right-side channel and playing to a late run by Ignatius Ganago – and that allowed them to more than double their shots on goal on the season. A multitude of questions hang over the win – e.g., how good are the New York teams this season, or just right now? (Red Bull has looked a little baffled every time I’ve watched them, fwiw); is the new Revs roster coming together? – and that points to the main question FC Cincinnati has to answer: are they one of the “good teams” this season?

Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo FC: Goal, Assist, Yellow Card

Closest I could get given the search...

A referee has to fuck up a lot to get a nod in any post I put up, res ipso loquitur, etc.. Also, congrats to the handful of people outside the greater Portland and Houston metro areas who saw the Timbers v the Dynamo and thought, “yeah, I guess I don’t have anything better tonight” because that was a pretty fun game to watch. Right? That was fun, right? What, you’re too big for salt water taffy now? Okay, big shot. Fine. (No, I’m not. You're the one going through separation anxiety!)

The point is, the game wasn’t boring, predictions of an incompetent Portland attack slap-fighting a dour Houston defense that barely noticed them held their own sad disco in my head as opposed to crossing over into and ruining the real world. I got a couple things wrong in my Scouting Report on Houston and I couldn’t be happier about it. Time to pick through the guts!

About the Game
The Portland Timbers got off to an electric start on their way to a 3-1 home win that looked like it could have ended 5-1 before the halftime whistle. After a ball squirted forward out of a tackle on Antony (probably) Jimer Fory broke down Houston’s right with everyone in orange furiously back-pedaling in time; his cross to Santiago Moreno actually found Daniel Steres first, but, per one of several themes that repeated/rhymed across the first half, he poked his clearance to Moreno, who fed Felipe Mora, who (probably) announced his wife was pregnant (everyone seemed happier than usual) after scoring Portland’s first goal. I know I wasn’t the only Timbers fan with dreams of jelly drops and a blow-out win dancing in my head over the next (literally) six minutes because Houston handed Portland at least two more tantalizing transition opportunities between the opener and Houston’s equalizer. There’s not much to say about the latter than why is Fory (barely) defending two players and great cross by Jack McGlynn (which means I got some things right in the Scouting Report), but it didn’t take long for the game to revert back to the Dynamo panicking and Portland taking advantage. Once Antony started and finished his run up the right for the Timbers’ second goal – tied together by an inch-perfect pass by Mora – it felt like the only question left to ask was how many more Portland could score. As it happens, the answer to that question was one. The Timbers scored just one more goal between the halftime whistle and the one that called the game – it involved the same players too, Mora and Antony – and that made for a gently nervous start to the second half. Assuming I’m not mashing them into some kind of omni-clip, I counted at least four times over the second half where Houston meticulously played the ball to the edge of Portland’s 18, and even got their toe in it, before the last, desperate shot went wide or smacked into Kamal Miller, Fory, of (most likely) Finn Surman. Houston head coach, Ben Olsen, added Erik Sviatchenko at the beginning of the second half, prompting the first of several “wait, why not start him?” questions, and that got the Dynamo’s feet under them for almost 25…vaguely menacing minutes. If I oversold Houston’s competence in the Scouting Report (I did), this was the place: this team works the ball up the field as well as any team in MLS – particularly when they heed Olsen’s pleas for “CALM” – but the end-result amounts to driving a freshly-paved highway that dead-ends into some Houston neighborhood built off-code and well beneath a flood-plain. A result can be lost in one bad moment – I get it – and, by the same token, any of Houston’s long progressive possessions could have ended with a second equalizer. Back in the real world, they didn't. Moreover, at least eight of them ended with four to five Timbers running at three to four Houston players prioritizing getting back to their own goal, by necessity, because the onslaught didn’t give them the luxury of setting up the optimal match ups. Carrying the point forward…

Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati: To the Hungrier Hippo Go the Spoils

The scene from Geodis Park.

When your local team gets a game that demands about a half dozen gut-checks and they pass the majority of them. FC Cincinnati’s 2-1 road win at Nashville SC was a big one – probably the biggest of 2025 so far.

About the Game
It played out as a test of wills, honestly, an occasion where either team could have walked away with three points or both could have left with one. The momentum went back and forth throughout – e.g., I thought Nashville held the advantage from the 15th minute to the upper-mid 20s, before Cincy yanked it back over the next 5-10 minutes – and, when the goals came, it didn’t have much to do with which house was ascendant. Cincinnati had the better opening shots (one each for Evander and Luca Orellano) and a nose ahead in the game state, only to see Nashville push them back with counter-raids over the following minutes (I think Hany Mukhtar's near-miss was the first in the full highlights). That threw a wobble into Cincy’s step for a while – for what it’s worth, I don’t think Obinna Nwobodo and Pavel Bucha ever got a firm handle in the middle – but they managed to settle and clamp things down…until Nashville broke the deadlock in the late 30s. Even after Edvard “Eddi” Tagseth got behind Cincy’s (over-committed) left, the set up didn’t look like much. Nick Hagglund (literally) threw himself at the cross (sacrifice the body!), but could only lean it out of danger and accidentally teed up Jack Bauer for a short-range blast from the right side of the area. With the dread prickling up – what would a third winless game mean for Cincy, never mind a defeat? – Evander stepped in to tamp it down as only he can – i.e., getting fouled within the same ZIP Code as the opposition goal and scoring saucily on the ensuing free kick. That sent the teams in the halftime locker room tied and raring to get back to it. Nashville came out the sharper and had multiple, early opportunities to get back on top. The first – and biggest – came when Kevin Denkey did the right thing – i.e., keep tabs on Walker Zimmerman in the area on a set piece – the wrong way – i.e., by wrapping him up not once, but twice. The ref called the penalty, rightly, before Roman Celentano smacked away the penalty kick, righteously. Celentano barely had the time to roll out of that headstand before he had to get back into position for a crazy sequence of saves that included 1) punching out the original cross, 2) kicking away a point-blank shot from the weak side, and 3 (maybe 4)) slapping away one or two follow-ups from still-closer range (maybe all those saves made the official snapshort? nope; MLS doesn't do justice by saves anymore). After that little heroic miracle, the second half settled into the game I expected: long periods of the ball getting tangled among flailing legs and rushing players all over the middle of the field - think Hungry Hungry Hippos where the ball keeps bouncing off the front of the snapping mouths. Here and there throughout that period, Cincinnati exposed themselves with nervous giveaways to Nashville players (more later). They contained most of them (again, more later), just as Nashville contained most of Cincy’s escapes from the midfield scrum. Given that frenzy in the middle, seeing Nwobodo limp off early felt like a potential game-breaker, but the gravity of that battling chaos sucked everything back into itself. To make what could track as a “homer” read, I thought Cincinnati got over Nashville a little over the last 15-20 minutes of the game. Orellano pinged the crossbar off a deflection in the middle of all that, but it was a semi-hopeful ball over the top to (substitute) Corey Baird that handed Cincinnati a golden opportunity to take all three points. After playing a damn near perfect game – it was his man-bunned head that knocked Orellano’s shot to the crossbar – Zimmerman flapped the ball away with his left arm and sent Denkey to the spot. I hate the stutter-step approach, to the extent I believe it should be banned (goalkeepers have enough disadvantages on penalty kicks), but I loved the goal: Denkey beat Joe Willis on the kick and Cincy beat Nashville on the day, the end.

Houston Dynamo FC Scouting Report: The Wrong Kind of Sleeper

This would be badass. Also, not what we're getting.

Won’t lie, I’m dreading this one more than a little. And it has less to do with fear of losing – which, to be clear, is very much on the table – than trepidation about what I believe we’re all about to sit through. Starting with the raw data…

Houston Dynamo FC
0-3-2, 2 pts., 3 gf, 8 ga (-5); home 0-3-0, away 0-0-2
Last 5 Results: LLDLD
Strength/Location of Schedule
v FCD (1-2 L); v MIA (1-4 L); @ CLB (0-0 D); v RSL (1-2 L); @ SEA (0-0 D)

Notes from the Field
The fact Houston has yet to win seems relevant. On a more specific level, I see two types of games in Houston’s recent past: games against strong (or strong-ish) defensive teams – e.g., Columbus Crew SC and the Seattle Sounders, where they fire only about a half dozen shots - and games against…let’s call them more average teams – e.g., FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake, where they post more or less normal numbers and, you know, score goals (see links). For anyone who didn’t see that the Dynamo have scored just three goals this season, please direct (or, more properly, redirect) your attention to the above Information Box. In short, no one’s really lighting it up for Houston in 2025 – all three of those goals were scored by different players, each with different limitations (Amin Bassi, small; Nico Lodeiro, near retirement; Ezequiel Ponce, basic lack of support). Against that, don’t get too carried away with those eight goals allowed because Inter Miami CF scored half of them. Without those four goals out of the equation, Houston is a 1.0 goals against/game team. If you know the names of their starting central defenders, either seek help or admit you have a problem. I kid, I kid (also, I hereby admit I have a problem). Those players are fine, but I don’t think see them as the key to what makes the Dynamo a hard lock to pick. Credit for that goes to a full-team commitment to the fundamentals. Houston plays definitionally competent soccer and that does all kinds of good and useful things for them, up to and including making them hard to beat – and, against what the numbers tell you, creating genuinely high-percentage chances on goal, even if they don't produce so many. Or, in fewer words, Benny-Ball, baby.

Nashville SC Scouting Report: Cincy's Third First Test of 2025

Walker Zimmerman, at pre-game meeting.

Over the weeks after it went up, Nashville SC seems to have made making me eat the somewhat dismissive Scouting Report I posted ahead of their Week 3 game against my Portland Timbers. They whooped the Timbers’ asses, of course, but some of the positives I flagged in my match report have come good. So, yeah, not totally useless. Let’s get into it…

Nashville SC
3-1-1, 10 pts., 8 gf, 3 ga (+5); home 2-0-1, away 1-1-0
Last Results: DLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v NE (0-0 D); @ RBNY (0-2 L); v POR (2-0 W); @ PHI (3-1 W); v MTL (3-0 W)

Notes from the Field
In my defense, between their 2024 season and their first two games of 2025, Nashville didn’t give much reason to believe in them. Moreover, I don’t think anyone would have any reason to talk about them, never mind talk them up, if it weren’t for their cool as you like Week 4 win over the then-unbeaten Philadelphia Union. Three straight wins never looks bad, obviously, but beating Montreal doesn’t impresses anyone (their “loose slots” vibe sent Laurent Courtois to the unemployment line) and trust me when I say Portland is going through some shit - or was it the time (c'mon, lemme have it). Watching far too much of that Montreal game didn’t give me much you haven’t heard before – e.g., losing Walker Zimmerman in the area is bad, Nashville’s a strong defensive team, etc. – but the main takeaway there was Sam Surridge continuing a strong run of minutes that started with wreaking havoc against the Union. If Nashville can get the assist he teed up against Montreal and the goal he scored at Philly once even one-third as often, they’ll be better; Surridge becoming a reliable foil for Hany Mukhtar and Ahmed Qasem could take them all the way to competitive. The only other thing that jumped out over the 35+ minutes of that first half at Philly was how well Nashville handled one of MLS's better presses. They looked comfortable on the ball, both individually and as a team, and even pushed back after going up. The defense looked strong in both games (and versus Portland), but Zimmerman looking whole and imposing at the back tasks FC Cincinnati with battling the soccer equivalent of an ogre.

Colorado Rapids 0-3 Portland Timbers: Comfortable in Commerce City

When you feel confident, you can do anything...

Think I mentioned this on Bluesky, but some dude on subreddit (who heard it from a friend of a friend’s co-worker, who heard it from her boss) floated the argument that the Portland Timbers were better than they earned after four games. Between Kamal Miller’s (stupid fucking) red card in Game 1 and the ref getting drunkenly novel with the concept of “advantage” in Game 4, they'd tripped themselves more than they'd been tripped, basically.

Did Timbers fans just get proof of concept with yesterday’s subtly lopsided 3-0 win at the Colorado Rapids, or…

About the Game
As happens more often than I’d like to admit, the Scouting Report I posted on…think it was Friday, but who cares because it went out the window within the first 20 minutes. The Colorado Rapids played like a constipated shadow of the team I’d watched from afar and the Portland Timbers looked – and, to be clear, this feels like a typo as I’m tapping it out…capable. We didn’t get seamless perfection by any means – see Jimer Fory at a dead sprint toward his own goal to corral an eighth-minute breakaway by Kevin Cabral (hold that thought*) and Finn Surman eating the entire fake Djordje Mihailovic baited him with at the edge of the fucking six – but the one, literally massive thing that stood out was how immediately calm and connected the Timbers looked playing out of the back. David Ayala offering himself as a first option and seeming to have a plan for his first pass went a long damn way with that; whether turning out of the pressure, dropping the ball to someone behind, who then played it forward to either Ayala or another option (Santiago Moreno, often as not), Portland had fewer problems playing out of back than they have so far in this young season. The defensive shape held up pretty well too, if with an assist from whatever the hell was going on with Rapids; I saw no evidence of the movement and connectivity I’d come to expect after watching 90 minutes of them for the Scouting Report. The Timbers looked, for lack of a better word, comfortable for the first time in 2025 – even when Colorado upped the pressure. The Rapids found a couple chances, here and there, mostly through Reggie “Grumpy” Cannon firing unchecked crosses from the right, but a state of disconnection plagued them through most of the game. With the game knotted on zeroes and the ref puckering up for the halftime whistle, the breakthrough finally came. After trying to play through the brick the Rapids dropped in front of their goal, someone hopefully played the ball wide to David Da Costa. When he kicked the ball back into the mixer, just as hopefully, it caught Josh Atencio’s ankle and bobbled into the Rapids’ goal. And thank gods for that, because, per the official statisticians (aka, the broadcast team) zero shots had been fired on goal, in anger or otherwise, to that point. That first goal opened the game, as goals by the road team often do, and the Rapids lost little time in making a second and worse mistake to allow Portland's second. For whatever reason, three defenders lumped around Felipe Mora like he was [Insert Global Star Name] and their left-sided defender drifting to cover Eric Miller (just…why, and hold that thought%) and that left Antony footloose and fancy-free up the middle of the field and, I assume, a little baffled at his good fortune before slotting home the insurance goal that the Timbers ultimately did not need. That goal arrived just prior to the 50th minute, but it effectively ended the game as a contest. With a nod to the final xG in the official stats – just to note/celebrate it, the Timbers broke the elusive 1.0 xG barrier for the first time in 2025 yesterday - Colorado’s stats aren’t wildly off the Timbers’. And yet the question of which was the better team isn’t so much as half open. The question is why?