The Portland Timbers, and The Fall Into 2019

The Seattle Super Junior Sounders!!

If you’ve followed my thoughts through the Portland Timbers’ 2019 preseason, you have seen the kinds of mood swings that get people talking about medication. This post will attempt to take all those disparate threads and tie them together into a coherent baseline understanding of where the Timbers seem to be going into the season. I’ll close out by identifying key mysteries and then wrap up by looking at Portland’s first 10 games – all of them on the road, of course - and projecting what I’d count as a good start to the 2019 season.

Preseason (domestic teams, only, and games that I watched): 2-1-1
The Timbers faced a useful collection of teams – e.g. (and in order), Seattle Sounders, the New York Red Bulls…Phoenix Rising (ah, the locus of my unhinging), and Real Salt Lake. Until that final, fluid win over RSL, where they played their starting set, Portland both played and faced some novel constructions for line-ups. There was the 60/30 split that faced The Seattle Super Junior Sounders!, the three-headed (fucked up) mutation that lost to Phoenix, and, again, something like the starting set against a baby Red Bulls line-up. Looking back on them now, all those make more or less sense – as in, I’m starting to really like Giovanni Savarese as a coach – but I’m less interested in the results than I am in the ultimate return of a familiar sensation.

If you take out the Phoenix game (see: “the locus of my unhinging”), I kept repeating the same big picture thought: with some complicated exceptions – e.g., Julio Cascante and David Guzman (and a strong, present desire to never see Renzo Zambrano again) - most Timbers played well. By the RSL game, they looked loose and confident. No, better than that: they looked saucy, and with a healthy helping of the right kind of back-heels. Because those thoughts line up with my notes from the earliest games last season, I’m going into 2019 feeling pretty good. Here’s why:

Overall

The three Portland players listed in Bobby Warshaw’s article on the best five players in every position answer the question: so long as they have Diego Valeri, Sebastian Blanco and Diego Chara healthy and playing well, Portland will remain competitive. All three are league elite, they know one another very well, as well as how to make the most of the pieces around them. If any one of those three goes down, though…well, that’s when the pants fill up in all the wrong ways. Roster continuity papered over some cracks last year, no question, but I’d also argue that some pieces around them don’t get their portion of propers – e.g., Jeff Attinella, certainly, but also Larrys Mabiala, Zarek Valentin and Jorge Villafana. The bones are good, as they say. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions.

There Are Questions. In No Particular Order:

Who’s the Forward? Probably Jeremy Ebobisse, until either he shuts his own door, or the Timbers bring in a guy they have to play, for either talent or money. I think that’ll be enough for the regular season grind, but it’s also probably not decisive. After that, there’s Lucas Melano. However you feel about that.

Andy Polo? (He’s a man, dammit! Not a question!) Lifting him to the third guy in Portland’s 4-2-3-1 suits him (And I think he actively resented playing deeper.) His play grew on me all preseason and, if it continues, he could pay off. Like, now.

When You Fix One Problem? I had this delightful typo in my most read post of the preseason – the write-up on the loss to Phoenix, for the curious – where I said that Guzman “doesn’t work with Chara” in the midfield, when I probably less-than-obviously meant Guzman “doesn’t work without Chara.” Goddamn it. Guzman is something of a luxury player – or, worse, he’s hard to leave off the roster, but you still have to plan around him. As alluded to above, Polo wasn’t a great fix during Guzman’s absence and, whatever I think of Paredes, he really doesn’t have Guzman’s range of passing and/or vision. I don’t think he’s gonna get them either; he looks different, more efficient and better with short, quick distribution (and if he could develop a shot…).

What to Do With David? Honestly, if Portland could trade Guzman for an upgrade at forward, they should take it. He has value – and a fair amount in the right set up (again, with Chara) – and the Timbers would have to re-engineer a thing or two if he left. I think it’s doable, but I’m also OK with Plan A.

Larrys’ New Hutch (I was always partial to Starsky) This year could settle the old argument of what Liam Ridgewell meant to Portland (even if I don’t think there’s a chance in Hell anyone will let it), but the fact remains that the Timbers need a partner for Mabiala. As much as I like Dielna’s “presence” (look, it’s intangible), I’d start with…Tuiloma(?). I’m not seeing what the staff sees on the practice pitch, so I’ll defer. This strikes me less as a terrible problem, than something that needs the best available solution.

What About the Depth? Beyond hoping they’re ready when called, I have no real opinion.

What About Jorge Moreira? Fun fact: I remember how to spell that by thinking “more Ira” every time I type it. Also, nothing there.

And that’s enough more or less open-ended questions. Based on the suppositions laced in and out of the above, how do I think the Portland Timbers should (not will, should) do in their first 10 games? And, here those are:

@ Colorado Rapids
@ LAFC
@ FC Cincinnati
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
@ San Jose Earthquakes
@ FC Dallas
@ Columbus Crew SC
@ Toronto FC
@ Real Salt Lake
@ Vancouver Whitecaps

Projections
I handicapped those games on two scenarios, one aggressive, the other realist, but both with a(n allegedly) decent grip on what’s possible. The fact that I ended up between 16 and 22 points tells you how that went. On a basis of opposition alone (and with their changes and upgrades not yet baked in; I mean how?), that’s not a hard schedule. Unfortunately, a bunch of other things come in, including Portland’s various reputations – e.g., they suck in March (maybe just a Porter thing), they suck on the road (they drove the road to MLS Cup), every single fucking line in Providence Park is too goddamn long, and most of them smell (I got nothin’) – and taking over half the available points, and with that many road games. Put it this way: I’d be delighted with 16 and you wouldn’t hear me shut up about the Supporters’ Shield if Portland picked up 22, but, no, I don’t see it. With that in mind, here is my…

Real Projection for Minimal Satisfaction: 12-13 points earned in the first 10 games. And, honestly, I think it’ll be between 12-15 points in the end.