Portland Timbers 2-2 New York Red Bulls: Choice Paradox

Much as I wouldn't know what to do with all those arms...

It took 70 minutes for Sebastian Blanco to get deep enough in Kyle Duncan’s head to take advantage. In that sense, I came away from this game more impressed by the New York Red Bulls youth than anything else. At the same time…Blanco is my favorite Timber for a reason.

From a Portland Timbers perspective, last night’s 2-2 draw against the Red Bulls coughs up too many variables to manage: too many dudes to assess, an opposing team that played a familiar system with different parts, and that’s on top of a state of play that only raised more questions. I blame preseason, and to the extent that I can’t decide whether the uneasy feeling from Wednesday’s win over the Seattle Sounders carries over. Not all B-teams are created equal, for starters, but New York has the power of their surprisingly reliable plug-‘n’-play system that goes quite a ways toward erasing that distinction. They don’t have an MLS Cup to show for it, but the Red Bulls have been the most reliably “money” team in MLS for nearly half a decade now – so says three of the last six Supporters’ Shields, so says last year’s league-leading goal differential.

Given all that, call this a good test for the Timbers. The result doesn’t mean anything, obviously, and ending in a tie makes it mean a little less, but, outside a whack at someone’s knuckles here and sharper questions there, just about every player performed well. Because the recap posted to MLSSoccer.com doesn’t provide the full treatment (e.g., no box score), I can’t say whether New York out-shot the Timbers. I suspect they generated more chances, and better ones, and that’s where my personal threat level tops out. Your feelings may vary – thanks in no small part to all the variables – so long as you rate the resilience of New York’s system (as I do), seeing Portland come back from two goals down against them felt like a decent evening’s work.

Most of the negatives I saw showed up on the defensive side and a lot of those showed up in the vicinity of Julio Cascante. The lowlight came when Cascante’s misplayed of a ball over the top that forced Larrys Mabiala into a tackle dicey enough for the ref to call it a penalty kick at first glance (it wasn’t; good call), but he also struggled more under the Red Bulls’ pressure than any Timbers this side of David Guzman. And, as alluded to, I don’t think Guzman looked all that sharp yesterday, and on either side of the ball, but he had more good moments than bad ones on balance, just like everyone else in Timbers green. That said, both goals were regrettable – the first for the way Villafana got caught forward and for the way Mabiala and Zarek Valentin lost Brian White between them, the second because that’s shit defending on a corner – and, again, you just don’t want to see that, even in preseason. Mistakes are one way to lose a game, so the fewer the better.

To switch to positives (that’s before closing with some questions), a few players didn’t put a foot wrong. I’d put Blanco in that category, certainly, and also Diego Chara (the man made a play, and a squeaky-clean one, after falling down); the worst charge you could put to Diego Valeri was failing to execute the odd perfect idea, but his service was good on set-pieces (and Mabiala should have done better how many times?) and he circulated the ball nicely in the attack. I thought Dairon Asprilla showed well to the best of his ability – a phrase I’m using literally and deliberately in this context – and I thought he looked fairly useful…at least until Andy Polo stepped into the same role for the second shift.

People keep telling me Polo is fast, and I wish they’d stop because it feels like everyone is conspiring to tell me something that isn’t true (no, you’re paranoid), but he does make a useful segue to the pleasant surprise that was the Timbers’ second shift. Seeing Lucas Melano make the most of his yellow card (knowing he was going to get the yellow for slamming the ball, he got everything off his chest to the referee) was a personal highlight (and to wrap up an earlier thought, I can see Melano’s speed, not Polo’s), but all the guys who came on did well when the game opened up after the 75th minute. If the Timbers caught up on shots, I’d credit this period courtesy of shots by Melano, a header that Andres Flores absolutely should have buried, as well as Marvin Loria’s screamer to and off the back post. Maybe they deserve credit for opening it up, but this was the only period of the game where a plausible case can be made that the Timbers dominated. And that returns to the idea of too many variables.

If you asked me for a starting eleven at this point, I’d try to come back with a starting fifteen. I understand that’s not a thing, but hear me out. This isn’t an argument that Portland has 15 great players that I can’t decide between; it’s a case of resisting the trade-offs. For instance, if forced to choose between Jeremy Ebobisse – who combined well all evening and scored Portland’s first by sheer force of will – and Melano, I’d be loathe to give up the latter’s speed; hints that Melano’s head is (finally) screwed on closer to right only makes the decision harder. The same applies across a lot of positions, and for similar reasons: Guzman might be leaving me flat, but sitting him means losing his wider range of passing; starting Polo over Asprilla means losing all of Asprilla’s lung-busting effort; in so many words, sticking with any known quantity means giving up on some quality, or on some as yet undeveloped resource. To hang some names on that, does it do us any good to see Tomas Conechny looking better, or to know that Loria has that shot?

It’s the illusion of choice that I’m resisting in all this. Portland has a lot of dudes available, but I count only…five(?) truly open spots in the regular starting eleven. I put those at forward (though perhaps not for long), right back (though perhaps not for long), the player who pairs with Chara, the player who rounds out the rest of midfield after Valeri and Blanco, and the player who ultimately pairs with Mabiala. When push comes to shove, though, I find it hard to believe that Timbers fans won’t get most of the same answers they get last season. As in, I bet Ebobisse will start at forward unless or until a new (potentially quite expensive) forward arrives, and that Melano will come on for a change of pace.

And yet, last night’s game leaves me more than a little hung up on how to best utilize all the talent the team does have. The idea follows from a theory that you’d get a different starting eleven if you asked someone to make it after only watching last night’s game than you would if you asked a long-time Timbers fan to do the same. Hopefully, there’s a plan in place to do this – or, failing that, enough flexibility in how Giovanni Savarese and the rest of his staff manages the roster, minutes and, if it comes to it, egos. There’s also a case where the competition for a spot in the eleven doesn’t mean much to the final product. To give an example, how much does the Timbers’ overall health turn on who wins the starting spot between Asprilla and Polo, or even Guzman versus Paredes?

All in all, though, I feel good about last night’s draw. And the chances that I’m getting more out of it than I should are very real.