 |
| Since when does a trapdoor open upward? What the hell is up with Google. |
Given the metric shit-ton of data below, and it’s late, so I’ll
keep this brief. First, here is the scale I use to “rank” each team in MLS. It’s
meant to be vague, and don’t pay too much attention to the order in which I
list them. It’s all very much contingent.
C – Contender: a team you can plausibly see winning every
time it takes the field.
M+ - Mid-Table-Plus: a team you expect to get results that
make sense, plus some strays.
M- - Mid-Table-Minus: they have a little something to them,
just not enough of it.
R – Road-Kill: can and will lose anytime and anywhere.
Those letters show up in the last row of the set of tables down
below, which I call the Info-Boxes (plus addenda). That’s meant to provide strength
of schedule for all the games each team has played, or least a shifting opinion
of it. I update (or try to) the letter rankings for every team each week, but
without touching the past weeks’ rankings; that’s meant to capture how I felt
at the time/fallibility. That feels sufficiently caveated so, moving on…
I went a little nuts with knocking teams off a pedestals in
Week 18. Most of the damage happened amongst the Contender class: there I knocked
the New York Red Bulls down to M+, despite their record (5-3-2, over their last 10 games), and on the grounds that
they no longer look like a team that can beat anyone anywhere. I kicked Atlanta
United FC’s ass all the way down to M- because their away record, along with the goal differential that kept them among the top, fell apart. Again, the defining trait of MLS's upper classes turns on beating anyone, anywhere. Down among the dreges, the Houston
Dynamo slipped from M+ to M- for a similar reason: they're terrible on the road, and patterns matter once
they become entrenched.
There’s trapdoors all over MLS as it turns out, because I
also put a bunch of teams on something not far off from an avalanche watch
(i.e., the conditions are right for something to fall downhill and fuck up all
kinds of things). That group includes: the Seattle Sounders, who have their
credibility on the line in real time over their next five games; meanwhile, between their
easy recent schedules and tougher times ahead, DC United and the Colorado
Rapids round the Avalanche Watch category. (Related, I’d file two teams under “precarious”
– as in, they’re fine so long as they can stay on top of the higher branches: FC Dallas
and the Chicago Fire).
Going the other way, a couple teams have the kind of near-term
schedules ahead that could make the chattering classes sing, maybe even prematurely: there, I’d
include the San Jose Earthquakes, the New England Revolution, and (not kidding)
Sporting Kansas City and (still not kidding) FC Cincinnati. If you hear talk about
any of those teams having one of those “mysterious turn-around” over the next
3-4 games, remember that they also have fairly playable schedules ahead of them in the near-term.
Last, but by no means least, one of the worst clichés that
circulates around MLS at some point close to Week 10 is the idea that teams “are
their record” by that point. That lazy bullshit gets proved wrong every goddamn
season, so tune it out. To give current examples, look at where the Portland
Timbers are now versus where nearly every commentator expects them to be by the
end of the season. Now, look at the Los Angeles Galaxy. C’mon.
That said, Toronto FC is exactly where they should be based
on every calculation I make, so…let’s get to those Info-Boxes.
CONTENDERS
LOS ANGELES FC, 13-2-4,
43 points, 50 gf, 16 ga, (8-0-1 home, 5-2-3 away)
Last 10 games: DDWWDWWLWW (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: DWWW
Last 10 away: DWDWLW
Strength of Schedule: Yeah, yeah, they’re (literally)
blowing through it (11-2 goal differential don’t lie), but it’s been soft
lately
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
|
a SEA
|
v CHI
|
a CLB
|
v FCD
|
a FCD
|
v MTL
|
a POR
|
a COL
|
a SKC
|
v VAN
|
|
1-1
|
0-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
4-2
|
3-2
|
0-1
|
5-1
|
6-1
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. Still practicing the art of downward momentum;
once they get rolling, teams just seem to melt away – or at least these last
two. I resist heaping praise on Carlos Vela (long line), but his goal against SKC’s Matt Besler shows how little time and space he needs. Also, I’d probably
give Diego Rossi GOTW. Also of note: Sporting KC very much gave them a better game; LAFC tore Vancouver to fucking pieces…might have to jiggle the handle down
there, clear up some leaks. All in all, I’d put normal closer to the FCD at
home to Portland away period.
Next Games: @ Houston (7/12), @ LA Galaxy (7/19), v
Atlanta (7/26), @ New England (8/3), v Red Bulls (8/11). With Houston and LA
away, that’s a pretty tough stretch. Looking forward to the Red Bulls…
PHILADELPHIA UNION, 10-5-6,
36 points, 39 gf, 28 ga, (6-2-3 home, 4-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: WDLDWWDLWD (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: DLDWD
Last 10 away: WWDLW
Strength of Schedule: Intermittently tough, but they’re not
dropping too many points; I’d call Colorado their last clear fuck-up.
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
|
a TFC
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
v COL
|
a MIN
|
v NYR
|
a NE
|
a NYC
|
a ORL
|
v ORL
|
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
1-3
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
2-4
|
3-1
|
2-2
|
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
Notes. The Union just went through a study and
fortune, good and bad; on the (loosely) good side (because risk of injury),
they benefited from Orlando imploding in Florida; on the bad side, Andre “Good
Hands (9/10)” Blake nearly cost them all the points with a comically awful save.
Kacper Przybylko bailed ‘em out just before they dragged the rubenesque beauty
on stage. He (especially), along with Fafa “Speed Kills” Picault were big
enough this week that I forgot about Ilsinho and them not having a reliable
forward (but Andrew Wooten’s new, yes?).
Next Games. @ RSL (7/13), v Chicago (7/20), @
Montreal (7/27) @ DC (8/4), v Houston (8/11). Some will be tougher than others
(gap between away to RSL and hosting Houston), but, as long as they stay about
1.5 ppg, they should be good enough for the bigger Cup competition.
NEW YORK CITY FC, 7-2-8,
29 points, 30 gf, 20 ga, (4-1-4 home, 3-1-4 away)
Last 10 games: WDWWDDWWWL (6-1-3)
Last 10 at home: WDWWWL
Last 10 away: WWDD
Strength of Schedule: Take out the soft-patch against Ohio’s
limping outfits, it’s been tough.
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
|
v CHI
|
v ORL
|
a MTL
|
a LAG
|
a CHI
|
a CLB
|
v CIN
|
v PHI
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
5-2
|
4-2
|
3-0
|
0-1
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. They faced two heavily-rotated Western
Conference teams, beat one – by the grace of bad defending – but at least
Ebenezer Ofori dropped a ba-bomb – and lost to the other, my Portland Timbers.
The Timbers forced ‘em into a tighter game and punished some particular stupid
set-piece defending (my notes on that), but they looked the better team. Still,
I don’t get the anti-hype I saw on MLS’s weekly review; they lost once over
their past 10 against a solid schedule…
Next Game: @ Red Bulls (7/14), @ Colorado (7/20), v
SKC (7/26) @ RSL (8/3), v Houston (8/11). Going into Week 18, I pegged nine
points over their next five games as a good sign. More to the point, they have helluva games in hand: two on
everyone in the Eastern Conference, but also three on DC, and four points on Philly and Montreal.
MID-TABLE PLUS
PORTLAND TIMBERS, 7-8-2,
23 points, 26 gf, 28 ga, (2-1-0 home, 5-7-2 away)
Last 10 games: WWLDWLWLWW (6-3-1)
Last 10 at home: LWW
Last 10 away: WWLDWLW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty tough, but also losing in your
dumber venues (Canada away seems tricky for this bunch).
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
|
a TFC
|
a RSL
|
a VAN
|
a HOU
|
a PHI
|
v LAF
|
v HOU
|
a MTL
|
v FCD
|
a NYC
|
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
4-0
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. Portland dropped some Rocky Balboa shit out
there (“harder, c’mon, hit me harder” (also, PSA: boxers don’t “get mad” when
they take clean blows to the head; they get brain damage). I wrote extended
notes on this battling, underdog story in an earlier post. (Read up!) That’s a
great three points, this team is showing fight to spare, and they’re pulling
everything over .500 ball.
Next Games. v Colorado (7/13), v Orlando (7/18), @
Seattle (7/21); v LA Galaxy (7/27), @ Minnesota (8/4). I’m standing pat on not
moving them up to Contenders, until I see those how they handle a congested
July, and whether their games at home move from the bush to their hands.
NEW YORK RED BULLS,
8-7-4, 28 points, 33 gf, 27 ga, (6-3-1 home, 2-4-3 away)
Last Ten: LWWDWWLWLD (5-3-2)
Last 10 at home: LWDWW
Last 10 away: WWLLD
Strength of Schedule: About 50% squishy, and they’ve mostly
handled it. Just not lately; 1/3 of the points on offer – and against weaker
teams – doesn’t augur well.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
|
v MTL
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
v VAN
|
a CIN
|
v RSL
|
a PHI
|
v CHI
|
a HOU
|
a ATL
|
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2-3
|
3-1
|
0-4
|
3-3
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Even if they got done in by a rare (in 2019) great game for Alberth Elis (and it wasn’t always elegant, either), their habit
of dropping senseless points necessarily yanks ‘em under and out of contender
status. They looked decent in both mini-games – especially against Atlanta,
where they looked the better team; the press worked, regular guys stepped up
(e.g., Daniel Royer), and their helpers (e.g., Alex Muyl) helped. The results,
though, have to return.
Next Games. v NYCFC (7/14), @ TFC (7/17), @ Orlando
(7/21), v Columbus (7/27), v TFC (8/3). And this run should test the theory
nicely – dense fucker too.
LOS ANGELES GALAXY,
11-7-1, 34 points, 26 gf, 22 ga, (7-3-0 home, 4-4-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLLWWLWLW (4-6-0)
Last 10 at home: LLLW
Last 10 away: LLWWWL
Strength of Schedule: Soft, of late, in particular. They’re
doing well enough with it, that I’m forced to swallow my doubts and keep them
up here.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a RB
|
a CLB
|
v NYC
|
v COL
|
a ORL
|
a SKC
|
v NE
|
a CIN
|
a SJ
|
v TFC
|
|
2-3
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
0-3
|
2-0
|
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Ibra’s height makes him uniquely dangerous,
and the Galaxy’s first goal against TFC gives a great demonstration as to why.
At the same, you’d have to sell damn low to make me buy this team. In my mind,
their recent history goes: a good team doesn’t lose to the Revs; FC Cincy
played ‘em even outside a 5-10 minute stretch; San Jose crawled up their asses
and started tearing, and it all ends with what little I saw told me was a far
from dominant on paper against a wounded animal of a TFC team. Between them,
the Galaxy and the Timbers are walking, playing counter-points to the phrase,
“at this point, you are your record.”
Next Games. v San Jose (7/12), v LAFC (7/19) @
Portland (7/27), @ Atlanta (8/3), @ DC (8/11). I’ll call them secure if they
take over half the points from that run. I won’t dismiss ‘em even if they only
get six points.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES,
8-7-4, 22 points, 30 gf, 30 ga, (7-3-1 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: WLWWDDWWLW (6-2-2)
Last 10 at home: WWDWWW
Last 10 away: LWDL
Strength of Schedule: Mostly playing teams on or around
their level, and they’re getting results, if with a little help from
home-field. (Wait…should all the blurbs read like that?)
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
v CIN
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
a DC
|
v FCD
|
v HOU
|
v LAG
|
a MIN
|
v RSL
|
|
1-0
|
1-3
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
3-0
|
1-3
|
1-0
|
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. The way the ran up the attacking stats against
Minnesota – the box scores show the numbers will the “MLS in 15” highlights
showed their quality, i.e., reasonably dangerous, but also hopeful (also, think
that video was closer to “MLS in 10”). Their key players keep looking good –
e.g., Magnus Eriksson most visibly – but sometimes, the breaks go against you.
Finally, full disclosure: I didn’t see anything about their home win over RSL
beyond Danny Hoesen's winner. I figure there’s nothing more normal than RSL
losing on the road.
Next Games: @ LA Galaxy (7/13), @ Vancouver (7/20); v
Colorado (7/27), v Columbus (8/3), @ Colorado (8/10). If the ‘Quakes continue
as above, there could be 9-12 in there for them.
FC DALLAS, 8-7-5, 29
points, 29 gf, 25 ga, (6-1-4 home, 2-6-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLDLWDWDLW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: LDWW
Last 10 away: LLLD
Strength of Schedule: Hell it first, then it resolved into a
solid block of middling. Take out the Vancouver draw (who I over-rated at the
time) and they’ve handled it reasonably well.
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
|
v RB
|
a LAF
|
v LAF
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SJ
|
v TFC
|
v VAN
|
a POR
|
v DC
|
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-2
|
2-1
|
2-2
|
3-0
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
2-0
|
|
C
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. If nothing else, take in CB Thomas Roberts’ epic defensive play on a near-breakaway for DC to see something weird and beautiful.
Overall, they won on two poachers’ goals (Mosquera’s especially; nah, both),
but it looked like a good performance and they kept Hamid busy. That equals
taking care of business…which they’ve been doing. Generally.
Next Games. @ Minnesota, @ SKC (7/20), v RSL (7/27),
@ Orlando (8/3), v Minnesota (8/10).
SEATTLE SOUNDERS,
9-5-5, 32 points, 29 gf, 25 ga, (7-0-2 home, 2-5-3 away)
Last 10 games: DWWDLLLWLW (4-4-2)
Last 10 at home: WWWW
Last 10 away: DDLLLL
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn soft, especially of late,
so that win over Columbus counts as bare minimum. If they don’t get a win, I
drop ‘em.
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
|
a MIN
|
v HOU
|
v ORL
|
a PHI
|
a SKC
|
a FCD
|
a MTL
|
v VAN
|
a NYC
|
a CLB
|
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
R
|
Notes. A little tough to track. In Columbus, the
played the reigning worst team in MLS (Cincy dished the crown), and didn’t do
much more than show the power of better personnel – e.g., Nico Lodeiro bailedthem out. Again. The loss to NYCFC is trickier, though, in that Seattle played
a clearly rotated squad; all the same, they had real defensive lapses and Kim
Kim-Hee reminded everyone, including himself that he’s no Chad Marshall. They
looked in both games, though, so screw it.
Next Games. v Atlanta (7/14), v Portland (7/21), @
Houston (7/27), v SKC (8/4), v New England (8/10). Seattle is much better at
home. The next five games put their credibility all the way on the line.
ATLANTA UNITED FC,
9-7-3, 30 points, 27 gf, 23 ga, (6-1-3 home, 3-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: WWLLWWLWLD (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: WWWWD
Last 10 away: WLLLL
Strength of Schedule: “…they’re good enough to get more than
six points out of that. Whether or not they do is the signal you’re watching,”
and the clock started ticking at Chicago. And it hasn’t been tough lately. It’s
something else.
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
|
v ORL
|
a VAN
|
a NYR
|
a RSL
|
v MIN
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
v MTL
|
a CHI
|
v NYR
|
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
2-3
|
2-1
|
1-5
|
3-3
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Nothing jumped out quite like the yawning gaps
in Zone 14 that both Chicago and the Red Bulls ran into all weekend. This team
built its early season ranking as a contender on defense, and that’s what
caused the precipitous drop, because their shit fell apart. The Chicago game
had already got away from them by the time Gonzalez-Pirez got sent off for a
penalty (hand-ball) that led to Chicago’s third goal. While nothing looked good
in that game, Atlanta showed real fight against the Red Bulls, Justin Meram has
listed them and Martinez still has his confidence. They still drew. And, golly,
does Pity Martinez look like a money-pit.
Next Game. @ Seattle (7/14), v Houston (7/17), v DC
(7/21), @ LAFC (7/26), v LA Galaxy (8/3). With the shift in their away record,
those games at home become must-wins. Especially those games.
MID-TABLE MINUS
HOUSTON DYNAMO,
8-7-3, 27 points, 28 gf, 25 ga, (7-0-3 home, 1-7-0 away)
Last 10 games: LDWLDLLLWL (2-6-2)
Last 10 at home: DWDW
Last 10 away: LLLLLL
Strength of Schedule: It’s been a reasonable schedule, even
in the context of the Gold Cup, the Dynamo are just fucking terrible on the
road. Like really, really bad.
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
|
a SEA
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a MIN
|
v SKC
|
a POR
|
a SJ
|
a NE
|
v NYR
|
a CIN
|
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
0-4
|
0-2
|
1-2
|
4-0
|
2-3
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. The score-line in the home win over the Red
Bulls flatters Houston a bit; Elis finally had a big game, and he and Romell
Quioto looked locked-in; add Tomas Martinez scoring a rare goal, and that’s all
your flash showing. Had New York got a toe-hold – and they had chances – I
don’t know what would’ve happened. I have a clearer read on their road loss to
Cincinnati. It’d be one thing to say, Houston can lose anywhere, but to come
out against the (then-) worst team in your league, and to look like the coach
told you to take your time and then gave you a couple shots to make sure you
did it…that’s…you just can’t.
Next. v LAFC (7/12), @ Atlanta (7/17), @ Toronto
(7/20), v Seattle (7/27), v Chicago (8/3). OK, right off the two road games.
Now, what do we have? Well, LAFC won’t be easy, and that could leave Houston in
a hole.
MINNESOTA UNITED FC, 9-7-3,
30 points, 36 gf, 29 ga, (5-1-3 home, 4-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: DLWWLLLWWW (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: DWWLWW
Last 10 away: LLLW
Strength of Schedule: These are good results. It’s that
middle run of Ls that I’d worry about, and whether the games mean the results
can be sustained.
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
|
v SEA
|
a CHI
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
v CIN
|
v SJ
|
a MTL
|
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-3
|
0-1
|
7-1
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Last week, I said the Loons had to win at
least two of its next four home games; well, they did that and picked up a road
point in Montreal. In terms of points, that’s fabulous. There are lots of good
stories – Kevin Molino’s return/goal, Ike Opara assisting on it, Mason Toye,
and Molino(‘s crazy) assisting on that one, Michael Boxhall’s DIY goal – and
six points for Minnesota, but San Jose looked dangerous in a way that should
prompt reflection. Oh, and they seem to give up a lot of shots from range, but
don’t seem to mind it either.
Next Games. v Dallas (7/13), v RSL (7/20), v
Vancouver (7/27), v Portland (8/4), @ FC Dallas (8/10). That’s very much a
“serve it up, let’s see what happens” scenario. I think the rest of the league
will know what’s up by that Vancouver game.
REAL SALT LAKE,
8-9-2, 26 points, 25 gf, 29 ga, (6-2-0 home, 2-7-2 away)
Last 10 games: LWWWLLDWWL (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: LWWWW
Last 10 away: WLLDL
Strength of Schedule: What should catch your eye here is the
strength of schedule between road opponents and home opponents.
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
|
v POR
|
a COL
|
v TFC
|
v ATL
|
a MTL
|
a NYR
|
a CHI
|
v SKC
|
v CLB
|
a SJ
|
|
1-2
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-4
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. Sometimes my notes are better than others,
sometimes they’re telling. The only thing I wrote for the win over Columbus
was, “[Sam] Johnson is fucking fast, RSL is fucking lucky.” And, as stated
above, there is nothing less interesting than RSL losing on the road. It is
their natural state. It’s the “fucking lucky” in Columbus that should cause
concern. Then again, the strength of schedule commentary feels compelling.
Next Games: v Philadelphia (7/13), v Minnesota
(7/20), @ Dallas (7/27), v NYC (8/3), @ SKC (8/10). If they get more than six
points out that stretch, I’d call them a good bet for the playoffs. Why?
Because the odds suck.
NEW ENGLAND REVS,
6-8-5, 23 points, 22 gf, 36 ga, (4-4-2 home, 2-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: DLLWDDWDWW (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: WDDWW
Last 10 away: DLLDW
Strength of Schedule: If you tick through those results one
at a time, it’s far more impressive than that 4-2-4 suggests.
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
|
a SKC
|
a PHI
|
a CHI
|
v SJ
|
a MTL
|
v DC
|
a LAG
|
v PHI
|
v HOU
|
a COL
|
|
4-4
|
1-6
|
0-5
|
3-1
|
0-0
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
Notes. If you’d told me
Teal Bunbury had scored 50 goals in his MLS career, I’d call you a liar (until
I checked and saw he’d been with New England since 2014). That’s a great win,
playing through distraction and all that, regardless. Carles Gil is one hell of
a player, Matt Turner (goalkeeper) impresses me more with every game, and this
is a team playing like it should’ve been from the start. They have to raise
their game to get out of the hole, and that makes it harder.
Next Games. @ DC (7/12), v Vancouver (7/17), @
Cincinnati (7/21); v Orlando (7/27), v LAFC (8/3). Between that first game
(then again, who knows? see below) and the last, the Revs could pull some serious
padding out of that stretch.
CHICAGO FIRE, 5-8-7,
22 points, 31 gf, 29 ga, (5-1-4 home, 0-7-3 away)
Last 10 games: WWLDDLDLWL (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: WWDDW
Last 10 away: LDLLL
Strength of Schedule: Call it a middling schedule, dominated
by peaks ‘n’ valleys, and how does the Fire handle it? Unevenly.
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
|
v NE
|
v MIN
|
a SJ
|
v NYC
|
a DC
|
a ATL
|
v RSL
|
a NYR
|
v ATL
|
a SKC
|
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
1-4
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-3
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. Between jumping on them out of the gate and the red card, they played Atlanta off the park – and that gave Chicago a great
chance to show off its talent. The deeper story showed up in the parade of
fuck-ups and dodged bullets that stitched together the narrow loss at SKC – and
it could have been a blow-out, but for Daniel Salloi’s penchant for missing
everything, showing up to school naked, etc. Also of very much note (and check
me on this), Chicago hasn’t won on the road in 24 (fucking) games.
Next Games. v Cincinnati (7/13) v Columbus (7/17), @
Philadelphia (7/20), v DC (7/27), @ Houston (8/3). Another case of writing off
the road games till further notice, so they’re fortunate to host Ohio plus a “who-knows?”
DC United team in Chicago.
DC UNITED, 8-5-7, 31
points, 25 gf, 21 ga, (5-2-4 home, 3-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: WWDLDDDWDL (3-2-5)
Last 10 at home: WWDDWD
Last 10 away: LDLD
Strength of Schedule: If memory serves, and my prediction
comes true, this was the easiest last 10 games in MLS. And look at that record –
with a preponderance of home games. Damn.
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
|
v CLB
|
v SKC
|
a TFC
|
a HOU
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v SJ
|
v ORL
|
v TFC
|
a FCD
|
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. “If they can’t get six points out of that
stretch, they’re dropping to road-kill.” The countdown started with the Dallas
game, so there goes some margin of error. They got their asses handed to them
in this one, and lost Acosta to boot for the next game to boot (deservedly, and
I wouldn’t be shocked by a spin on the DisCo floor; Rooney’s thing was a yellow; no controversy). They put a shot on goal, but I can’t recall it. Oof..
Next Game: v New England (7/12), @ Cincinnati (7/18),
@ Atlanta (7/21), @ Chicago (7/27), v Philly (8/4). I don’t expect a stronger
run ahead, but that’s what you’re watching for.
COLORADO RAPIDS,
5-10-4, 19 points, 29 gf, 38 ga, (4-5-2 home, 1-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLWWDWWDWL (5-3-2)
Last 10 at home: LLWWWWL
Last 10 away: WDD
Strength of Schedule: The biggest thing is, look who they beat
at home in the past (wheezin’ teams), and look who just beat them at home. Call
it a warning sign.
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
|
v VAN
|
v RSL
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
a PHI
|
v CIN
|
v MIN
|
a VAN
|
v LAF
|
v NE
|
|
2-3
|
2-3
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
1-0
|
1-2
|
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. “The Rapids got three of those five wins
against weaker teams, and at home. Caveat Lector.” That was last week’s warning
sign, and leave it to the most-sneakily-resurgent team in MLS to flip on the
switch. They gave up the kinds of goals good defenses don’t, and they lost
Kelyn Acosta for the road game to Portland along the way. They have a long, highly encouraging run behind them, but this felt like Icarus falling to Earth.
Let’s see what’s next.
Next Game: @ Portland (7/14), v NYCFC (7/20), @ San
Jose (7/27), v Montreal (8/3), v San Jose (8/10). I’d call that four tough
games, plus a challenge. The state of my faith in the Rapids says they get 5 or
less out of it.
ORLANDO CITY SC,
6-9-4, 22 points, 27 gf, 27 ga, (3-5-1 home, 3-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWLWLWLD (3-6-1)
Last 10 at home: LWLL
Last 10 away: LLWLWD
Strength of Schedule: Guess that’s equally balanced between
contenders and road-kill, with a lean toward the lower end of mid-table, plus a
lot of games on the road. Res ipso loquitur.
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
|
v TFC
|
a ATL
|
a SEA
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
a MTL
|
a DC
|
a CLB
|
v PHI
|
a PHI
|
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
3-0
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
2-2
|
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
C
|
Notes. Credit Nani, Dom Dwyer and Andre Blake for
salvaging what could have (should have?) been a disastrous series against the
Union for Orlando. In something too typical of their stormy past, the Lions
picked up two deserved reds in their home game (and Kljestan should expect a pile-on from the DisCo in this one), and that ended those games as contests.
They gave a decent account of themselves, but they still look more scrappy than
competitive. That doesn’t fly anymore.
Next Games. v Columbus (7/13), @ Portland (7/18); v
Red Bulls (7/21), @ New England (7/27), v Dallas (8/3). The funny thing is,
scrappy matters at least three of those teams should look out (in this case,
not Portland and not the Red Bulls, because they scrap with the best of ‘em).
MONTREAL IMPACT, 9-9-3,
30 points, 26 gf, 34 ga, (5-3-1 home, 4-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: WLDLWLWWLL (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: DWLWWL
Last 10 away: WLLL
Strength of Schedule: Yeah, those 10 games lean to tougher
than most, but if Minnesota broke their voodoo on the Western Conference, look
out!
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
|
a RB
|
a CIN
|
v NE
|
a LAF
|
v RSL
|
v ORL
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
a ATL
|
v MIN
|
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
2-4
|
2-1
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
2-3
|
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. I put down six points
over five games as a marker for L’Impact going into the Minnesota game. Yeah. Once
the Loons truly turned the tide, it didn’t look like Montreal managed much
after that. More to the point, they padded their shots/on goal numbers with
hopeless bombers from range. Montreal will probably linger around the playoff
line, but they aren’t a good team.
Next Games. v TFC (7/13), @ Columbus (7/20), v
Philadelphia (7/27), @ Colorado (8/3), @ Chicago (8/10). Part of me thinks all
this depends on how the other teams are feeling on the day in question.
TORONTO FC, 6-8-5, 23
points, 30 gf, 33 ga, (4-3-3 home, 2-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: LDLLDDLWDL (1-5-4)
Last 10 at home: LDLDW
Last 10 away: LDLDL
Strength of Schedule: Shit. Does it matter? Remind me of why
I don’t have these guys under Road-Kill. They’re playing a relatively normal
schedule and dying whilst doing it.
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
|
v PHI
|
v DC
|
a RSL
|
v SJ
|
a VAN
|
v SKC
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
a DC
|
a LAG
|
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
0-3
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Cue the wacky line-up, cue Alejandro Pozuelo
at forward (and mourn for the season that might have been), and wait for TFC’s
regulars to come back – but also hold the questions on what it’ll all mean when
they do. This is the rare occasion when a team is its record. And Toronto fans
should be livid at that second goal. They gifted it to Zlatan. The Timbers once
benched a guy for that and it paid off…just sayin’.
Next Games. @ Montreal (7/13), v Red Bulls (7/17), v
Houston (7/20), v Cincinnati (7/27), @ Red Bulls (8/3). If their starters can’t
turn this team around during THAT stretch, they’re not making it this season.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS,
4-8-8, 20 points, 22 gf, 31 ga, (3-3-4 home, 1-5-4 away)
Last 10 games: WLDDWDDDLL (2-3-5)
Last 10 at home: WLWDD
Last 10 away: WDD
Strength of Schedule: I’d feel bad if I was Portland and
Dallas…the well has produced little since you’ve come around.
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
|
v POR
|
v ATL
|
a SKC
|
a NYR
|
v FCD
|
v TFC
|
v COL
|
a FCD
|
a SEA
|
a LAF
|
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
1-6
|
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. Jordy Reyna gave them their minute of
happiness. Was that not enough? Yeah, the heavens fell when this thing opened
up. Sadly, that matches the trends for this team: there’s no sign they know
what they’re doing out there; it’s more grasping, random effort than game-plan.
My best explanation, can you tell me how they find ways to win besides
something painfully close to that long ball to Reyna?
Next Games. v SKC (7/13), @ New England (7/17), v San
Jose (7/20), @ Minnesota (7/27), @ Cincinnati (8/3). I see no reason to be
over-optimistic. (Name that song!)
ROAD-KILL
SPORTING KC, 5-7-7, 22
points, 29 gf, 34 ga, (4-3-3 home, 1-4-4 away)
Last 10 games: LDWLDDWLLW (3-4-3)
Last 10 at home: DWLLW
Last 10 away: LDDWL
Strength of Schedule: God’s honest truth, that’s 50% soft.
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
|
a DC
|
v VAN
|
v SEA
|
v LAG
|
a HOU
|
a TFC
|
a CLB
|
a RSL
|
v LAF
|
v CHI
|
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
1-0
|
0-2
|
1-5
|
1-0
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. The biggest thing about Week 18 for SKC is
that they racked up the chances over two games in a row; the worst thing that
happened, was missing so, so very many of those chances. The difference between
2018 and 2019 could be summed up in the person of Salloi and the ghost of
Nemeth. In the plus column, a late collapse exaggerated those loss to LAFC,
Johnny Russell is back, and Gerso Fernandes looked like one of the most
dangerous players on the field this week. I kept them here because the promised
run may never come, but watch this space. A lot of the meteoric rises I’ve seen
over the years started underground.
Next Games. @ Vancouver (7/13), v Dallas (7/20), @
NYCFC (7/26), @ Seattle (8/4), v RSL (8/10). Sadly, that’s a brutal run. If
they get less than six points from that (at the bookends), write ‘em off.
FC CINCINNATI, 4-13-2,
14 points, 18 gf, 44 ga, (3-4-1 home, 1-9-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWLLLLLW (1-9-0)
Last 10 at home: WLLL
Last 10 away: LLLLLL
Strength of Schedule: For an expansion team in permanent
turmoil, that’s medieval brutal.
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
|
a PHI
|
a SJ
|
v MTL
|
a ORL
|
v NYR
|
a COL
|
a NYC
|
v LAG
|
a MIN
|
v HOU
|
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
1-5
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
2-5
|
0-2
|
1-7
|
3-2
|
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. I set four points as the low bar for success –
and decided to declare anything better than six points as a general positive.
Beating Houston was big – no matter how close Cincy came to blowing it. And,
for those who want more, I’ve got extended notes on this one.
Next Games. @ Chicago (7/13), v DC (7/18), v New
England (7/21), @ Toronto (7/27), v Vancouver (8/3). Given all the above
inputs, the three games at home feel winnable. Fuck it, re-write the script.
COLUMBUS CREW SC,
5-13-2, 17 points, 17 gf, 30 ga, (4-6-2 home, 1-7-0 away)
Last 10 games: LWLLLDLLLL (1-8-1)
Last 10 at home: WLDLLL
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule:
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
|
a DC
|
v LAG
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
a COL
|
v NYC
|
v SKC
|
v ORL
|
a RSL
|
v SEA
|
|
1-3
|
3-1
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. Disaster and embarrassment across two games,
and I think they had their best moments in Sandy, Utah (even if neither of
their best shots of Week 18 counted as shots on goal; see the Crognale and Sosa highlights). Alex Crognale had a
bad-to-inauspicious week, but David Guzman is terrible (twice over). And a
Ricardo Clark/Guzman midfield is like signing your own death warrant, even in
this league.
Next Games. @ Orlando (7/13), @ Chicago (7/17), v
Montreal (7/20), @ Red Bulls (7/27), @ San Jose (8/3). Sweet Jesus, that’s
gonna be hideous….
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