 |
| Better a filthy hermit than Peter the Hermit. |
Fucking terrible copy like that is exactly why I recommend
people skip The Mothership’s (aka, mlssoccer.com) recaps. Nuance aside (and
there is some), Houston came back “down to Earth” when they stopped playing at
home. That talking point’s got whiskers, and a dead man’s face is wearing them.
I skip most of The Mothership’s content because it combines two things I hate:
a dog-pile of hot-takes and treating everything like it’s a mystery. Those
problems feed one another, and that’s why I become a filthy hermit once every
week to compile the monument to context that I’ve called the Form Guide ULTRA,
aka, Why I Started Wearing a Catheter.
In…the post before the Gold Cup break (right?), I introduced a loose scale for
ranking teams. In a post some weeks later (last week, in fact), I moved around some of those original rankings and, golly, did I misread some of those. It only looks like I took bribes, honestly, but I’m going to revisit those rankings tonight, and also entertain
another delegation from The Department of Corrections. Before getting into
that, here are the four categories in my loose scale:
C – Contender: a team you can plausibly see winning every
time it takes the field.
M+ - Mid-Table-Plus: a team you expect to get results that
make sense, plus some strays.
M- - Mid-Table-Minus: they have a little something to them,
just not enough of it.
R – Road-Kill: can and will lose anytime and anywhere.
I’ll start by making one general thought clear: teams will
slip between those categories going forward, and how I rate each team
week-to-week indicates where I think they fit into the scale above at time of writing. In other words, I can (and will) call a team an M- one week, then
bump them down to, say, an R the next week (or vice versa). Next, I will not go back and retroactively
update past ratings to reflect current ones, even when in the case of bad
calls. If I screwed up and rated a team higher or lower than I should have, I’ll
note it and apologize for the same way too many times. Like right now…
I made a lot of calls that withered under scrutiny, and I
want to stop doing that. To name names and sob gently as I mention each one of them,
none of Minnesota United FC, Orlando City SC, and the Colorado Rapids deserved
a place among the M+ teams; as noted below, they all picked points out of a
soft schedule. Toronto FC and the San Jose Earthquakes have built more recent
cases that they belong in better places – M- and M+, respectively – while I can
only assume I was hammered when I called the Vancouver Whitecaps M+ material. (All
the booze in Skagway…). Yet another team – in this case, the Los Angeles Galaxy
– begs a smart question of my methodology.
Is there some ideal “middling” team I have in mind when I
talk about what the “normal” MLS team should expect to do against the
middlingest of middling teams in MLS? Basically, what’s my standard? When I chastise LA for failing to live up to some arbitrary standard that I never identify, that’s not really helpful. If the Galaxy has a defining trait,
it’s the dubious quality of being erratic. That basically means you never know
what they’ll do, but that doesn’t mean odds aren’t involved. For instance, the
Montreal Impact somehow gets third place in the Eastern Conference out of
playing erratically, while the Chicago Fire, the Colorado Rapids and the
Vancouver Whitecaps don’t. The difference is, one team is good for the odd positive result (Montreal, and against Portland, Seattle and RSL), while the rest are good for the opposite.
That is way too much preamble, but that’s also everything.
Before moving onto the Info-Boxes, I have one more detail to float. I expect
good, meaningful data out of the following teams over their next five games:
New York City FC; San Jose; Minnesota. Going the other way, I’d ignore most of
what you see in the near-term from the Houston Dynamo and the New England
Revolution. I may or may not explain below, but the very short version of that
is there’s too much weird shit around both of them. All right, all right, let’s
look at the Info-Boxes.
CONTENDERS
LOS ANGELES FC, 11-2-4,
37 points, 39 gf, 14 ga, (7-0-1 home, 4-2-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWDDWWDWWL (5-2-3)
Last 10 at home: WDWW
Last 10 away: LDWDWL
Strength of Schedule: Even after this loss, they remain the team
against which all others are measured.
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SEA
|
v CHI
|
a CLB
|
v FCD
|
a FCD
|
v MTL
|
a POR
|
a COL
|
0-1
|
4-1
|
1-1
|
0-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
4-2
|
3-2
|
0-1
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. Yeah, yeah, shocking loss, but they had enough
pieces missing (e.g., Walker Zimmerman, Eduardo Atuesta, Mark-Anthony Kaye) to make
this usable data. To repeat a theory/bang a drum, Kaye and Atuesta are every
bit as important to LAFC’s success as Vela.
Next Games: @ SKC (7/3), v Vancouver (7/6), @ Houston
(7/12), @ LA Galaxy (7/19), v Atlanta (7/26). Serve it up, and tell us what happens.
PHILADELPHIA UNION, 9-5-5,
32 points, 34 gf, 25 ga, (6-2-2 home, 3-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: WWWDLDWWDL (5-2-3)
Last 10 at home: WWDLDW
Last 10 away: WWDL
Strength of Schedule: It’s been up and down – and more so
recently – but they’re getting respectable results out of respectable games,
and they show up enough.
W
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
v CIN
|
v NE
|
a TFC
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
v COL
|
a MIN
|
v NYR
|
a NE
|
a NYC
|
3-0
|
6-1
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
1-3
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
2-4
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
Notes. They looked more like themselves against the
Revs (see the passing stuff), but NYCFC flat-out played ‘em off the field and their game. It’s a shame
because two really good goals went to waste – and from players who could use to
feel rewarded (thinking Przybylko more than Picault).
Next Games. @ Orlando (7/3), v Orlando (7/6), @ RSL
(7/13), v Chicago (7/20), @ Montreal (7/27). The worst of a road-heavy stretch
is over. Winnable as those next three look, expect two of ‘em to be real work.
ATLANTA UNITED FC, 9-6-2,
29 points, 23 gf, 15 ga, (6-1-2 home, 3-5-0 away)
Last 10 games: WWWWLLWWLW (7-3-0)
Last 10 at home: WWWWW
Last 10 away: WWLLL
Strength of Schedule: I’ll start by noting that TFC scraped
itself off the road and left the “road-kill” group. But they’re having a good
run against decent teams.
W
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
a SKC
|
v TFC
|
v ORL
|
a VAN
|
a NYR
|
a RSL
|
v MIN
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
v MTL
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
2-3
|
2-1
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. To start with a happy story, Justin Meram had himself an evening on Saturday, and at Montreal’s expense. It looked like they
played TFC even enough for the whole thing come down to penalty kicks and
having icy danglers. Pozuelo gave ‘em hell, and Pity killed their chances.
Those are decent, normal-good-team results. Keep an eye on the road losses.
Next Game. @ Chicago (7/3), v Red Bulls (7/7), @
Seattle (7/14), v Houston (7/17), v DC (7/21). Tough run. I’d only guess Ws
against Houston and DC, but they’re good enough to get more than six points out
of that. Whether or not they do is the signal you’re watching.
NEW YORK RED BULLS, 8-6-3,
27 points, 30 gf, 20 ga, (6-3-1 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last Ten: WWLWWDWWLW (7-2-1)
Last 10 at home: WWLWDWW
Last 10 away: WWL
Strength of Schedule: Cincinnati twice pads the account, but
not terribly. It’s still to 5-2-1 outside of that…and do they struggle
unusually against Canadian teams?
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
v MTL
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
v VAN
|
a CIN
|
v RSL
|
a PHI
|
v CHI
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2-3
|
3-1
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. The same old story, or a regular twist on it: fewchances, many goals (sometimes). The Red Bulls finish the chances they create,
and that’s why they win; it’s that simple. And Daniel Royer deserves a helluva
lot more credit; he’s been efficient in 2019. Bradley WP came back and I’m
happy because I like that guy.
Next Games. @ Houston (7/3), @ Atlanta (7/7), v NYCFC
(7/14), @ TFC (7/17), @ Orlando (7/21). If New York gets more than eight points
out of these five games, the word “contender” will fit quite smartly.
NEW YORK CITY FC, 6-1-8,
26 points, 27 gf, 19 ga, (3-0-4 home, 3-1-4 away)
Last 10 games: DWWDWWDDWW (6-0-4)
Last 10 at home: WDWW
Last 10 away: DWWWDD
Strength of Schedule: I’d call that run respectable, but not
difficult; that’s why beating Philly matters; They’re coming together nicely.
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
a MIN
|
a DC
|
v CHI
|
v ORL
|
a MTL
|
a LAG
|
a CHI
|
a CLB
|
v CIN
|
v PHI
|
3-3
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
5-2
|
4-2
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
C
|
Notes. Big win against Philly, statement-sized and
all that. Worst case, balance two soft penalties (and Valentin Castellanos’
skullduggery) against the fact that NYCFC ran up the Union’s gut to score two more. They’re creating high-percentage chances (see the box score). The
“no-loss” thing is freaky.
Next Game: v Seattle (7/3), v Portland (7/6), @ Red
Bulls (7/14), @ Colorado (7/20), v SKC (7/26). They SHOULD get 9 points out of
that. They feel a good bet to get more. That’s the ruler for NYCFC.
MID-TABLE PLUS
PORTLAND TIMBERS, 6-7-2,
20 points, 24 gf, 26 ga, (2-1-0 home, 4-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: WWWLDWLWLW (6-3-1)
Last 10 at home: LWW
Last 10 away: WWWLDWL
Strength of Schedule: The Timbers took a little advantage to
get their earliest wins, but they carried that over to stiffer
competition…seriously, I can explain away any of these.
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
a CLB
|
a TFC
|
a RSL
|
a VAN
|
a HOU
|
a PHI
|
v LAF
|
v HOU
|
a MTL
|
v FCD
|
3-1
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2-3
|
4-0
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
Notes. They played their toddlers against Montreal on
Wednesday, and they did all right. (Also, see my extended notes on Portland’s bench players, aka, their “toddlers” from that game.) If nothing else, they
showed, 1) they can battle, and 2) that Brian Fernandez has a knack for making the battle stand up (My extended notes on that.). And yet, this was Diego
Chara’s win.
Next Games. @NYCFC (7/7), v Colorado (7/13), v
Orlando (7/18), @ Seattle (7/21); v LA Galaxy (7/27). No offense to the
competition, but every one of those home games need to be wins. YES, I’m aware
I didn’t lift them into “Contender” status.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 8-4-5,
29 points, 27 gf, 21 ga, (7-0-2 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: DDDWWDLLLW (3-3-4)
Last 10 at home: DDWWW
Last 10 away: DDLLL
Strength of Schedule: Seattle’s sinking precisely because
that’s not a tough schedule, not for a team with Seattle’s ambition.
D
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
v SJ
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
v HOU
|
v ORL
|
a PHI
|
a SKC
|
a FCD
|
a MTL
|
v VAN
|
2-2
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
1-0
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
Notes. Probably a stronger win that it appears to be
(suggestive evidence) and, no less relevant, they started a clutch of toddlers
in this one. Speaking of, and couldn’t happen to a nicer team, but Danny Leyva
got screwed. (To raise another question: is it a shithead move to keep playing
with the opposing ‘keeper is down?) A big three points for the Sounders,
precisely because they were needed. With the opposition very much in mind,
their last ten games have them on a trajectory to limp into the playoffs, or
miss them all together.
Next Games. @ NYCFC (7/3), @ Columbus (7/6), v
Atlanta (7/14), v Portland (7/21), @ Houston (7/27). With two really tough road
games in that mix, the home games in their next five grow a little taller. It’s
a shame that both home games will be tough as hell. Anything less than six
points should catch attention.
REAL SALT LAKE, 7-8-2,
23 points, 24 gf, 28 ga, (5-2-0 home, 2-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: WLLWWWLLD (5-4-1)
Last 10 at home: WLWW
Last 10 away: LWLLD
Strength of Schedule: They’ve picked up some good wins in
tough games lately. Mostly not at home, but still. The wins versus at Atlanta
and at Colorado
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
a CIN
|
a LAG
|
v POR
|
a COL
|
v TFC
|
v ATL
|
a MTL
|
a NYR
|
a CHI
|
v SKC
|
3-0
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-4
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
Notes. Looked like a bigger rout than what shows up
on the box score, but it’s the way RSL got those shots on goal (lining up for turns) that should most
encourage them and worry SKC. SKC is a wounded animal – one that lost a leg
during the chase (Barath?) – but those are the games a team has to win.
Next Games: v Columbus (7/3), @ San Jose (7/6), v
Philadelphia (7/13), v Minnesota (7/20), @ Dallas (7/27). The first chapter of
RSL’s (potential) re-writing of its season started well – and they need at
least eight points out of their next five games - but I expect them to get a
little gas out of having some three home games in hand.
FC DALLAS, 7-6-5, 26
points, 27 gf, 24 ga, (5-1-4 home, 2-5-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLDLWDWDL (2-5-3)
Last 10 at home: LDWW
Last 10 away: LLLD
Strength of Schedule: They survived hell 6-10 days ago; I
suspect they’re showing the rest of the league where the fit right now.
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
a HOU
|
v RB
|
a LAF
|
v LAF
|
a VAN
|
v SEA
|
a SJ
|
v TFC
|
v VAN
|
a POR
|
1-2
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-2
|
2-1
|
2-2
|
3-0
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. Based on the sum of everything I’ve seen out
of Dallas this week, they have every reason to feel aggrieved at getting just
one point out of it. Then again, no one made them collapse at home against Vancouver
(and ruin a good goal by Hollingshead, and a better one by Ferreira). Dallas
died valiantly in Portland, but they still died. At some point – often around
losing half your last 10 games – that hurts your chances a little.
Next Games. v DC (7/4), @ Minnesota, @ SKC (7/20), v
RSL (7/27), @ Orlando (8/3). They’re good enough to win any of those games.
What? All of them? Good Lord, no. But that’s what you’re watching.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES,
6-6-4, 22 points, 25 gf, 27 ga, (5-3-1 home, 1-3-3 away)
Last 10 games: DDWLWWDDWW (5-1-4)
Last 10 at home: WWDW
Last 10 away: DDLWD
Strength of Schedule: What they've done recently underlines why they're succeeding.
D
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
a SEA
|
a FCD
|
v CIN
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
a TFC
|
a DC
|
v FCD
|
v HOU
|
v LAG
|
2-2
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-3
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
3-0
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
Notes. The Week of Vako (Vaco?), plus Tommy Thompson
scores the only way he knows how, and Shea Salinas takes off his shirt! Kicking
the Galaxy’s ass out of the Cali Classico ended a great week for the ‘Quakees.
They’ve picked up 17 of the past 24 available points and they’ve evolved into
what every team playing reasonably hates: a team that can beat you, especially
at home.
Next Games: @ Minnesota (7/3), v RSL (7/6), @ LA
Galaxy (7/13), @ Vancouver (7/20); v Colorado (7/27). Even every one of those
road teams to have its hands full, and RSL and Colorado will almost certainly
lose.
HOUSTON DYNAMO,
7-6-3, 24 points, 22 gf, 22 ga, (6-0-3 home, 1-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: WWLDWLDLLL (3-5-2)
Last 10 at home: WWDWD
Last 10 away: LLLLL
Strength of Schedule: The last 10 numbers say a lot, but
every one of their last five road games were tough. Just file that away.
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a SEA
|
v POR
|
v DC
|
a MIN
|
v SKC
|
a POR
|
a SJ
|
a NE
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
0-4
|
0-2
|
1-2
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. They had a stronger day against New England
than their evening against San Jose, but the Dynamo’s road-jinx is back. They
gave up everything except more goals (proof) against San Jose, but it’s tough
to read the result against the Revs. As much as they’ve improved since the
coaching change, That’s just a game you watch to see how Houston handles it.
Nope. Getting back Elis should help, at least for as long as he sticks around
(and Tomas Martinez and Memo Rodriguez).
Next. v Red Bulls (7/3), @ Cincinnati (7/6), v LAFC
(7/12), @ Atlanta (7/17), @ Toronto (7/20). The Cincinnati game just became a
must-win. And those are two absolutely fucking brutal home games. Shelve the
Dynamo for a bit. They’re below Dallas on strength of schedule alone, but that
should pass…eventually(?). The opposition has to soften up.
MID-TABLE MINUS
ORLANDO CITY SC,
6-8-3, 21 points, 24 gf, 22 ga, (3-4-1 home, 3-4-2 away)
Last 10 games: WDLLLWLWLW (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: WLWL
Last 10 away: DLLWLW
Strength of Schedule: Good on them for stealing points out
of Montreal – and…just HOW at NYCFC? – but the rest of those results tell a
clarifying story.
W
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
v VAN
|
a NYC
|
v TFC
|
a ATL
|
a SEA
|
v CIN
|
v LAG
|
a MTL
|
a DC
|
a CLB
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
5-1
|
0-1
|
3-0
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
R
|
Notes. My biggest take-away for Orlando this weekend:
when I look at their starting line-up against Columbus, I don’t know how they
don’t have a shot. They got three points from two games on the road – the loss
against its alleged “betters,” but DC won it on a fucking fluke (I regret nothing; he scores that annually), and they
played a very efficient game against Columbus (almost as many goals as shots). It helps when a guy like
Akindele delivers this. All the same, those results outline a level, and it’s
not a promising one.
Next Games. v Philadelphia (7/3), @ Philadelphia
(7/6), v Columbus (7/13), @ Portland (7/18); v Red Bulls (7/21). Ah, look.
Matching Eastern Conference six-pointers against Philly and Columbus. This
should be very, very educational all ‘round.
MINNESOTA UNITED FC,
7-7-3, 24 points, 30 gf, 26 ga, (4-1-3 home, 3-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: DWDLWWLLLW (4-4-2)
Last 10 at home: DWDWWLW
Last 10 away: LLL
Strength of Schedule: Take out the win over DC and they’re
really just winning when – and, crucially, where – they should.
D
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
v LAG
|
v DC
|
v SEA
|
a CHI
|
v CLB
|
v HOU
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
a COL
|
v CIN
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
1-0
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-3
|
0-1
|
7-1
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
R
|
Notes. I explained this one away by arguing that
Cincinnati’s dying confidence left them wilting on a boiling hot day, but I
still don’t begrudge Minnesota their fun…so much fun was had by all. My point
is, this was an outlier – especially on the goals-scored side – and the Loons
seem like a safe bet to revert to their norm.
Next Games. v San Jose (7/3), @ Montreal (7/6), v
Dallas (7/13), v RSL (7/20), v Vancouver (7/27). I made some strong statement
about “every home game needs to be a win” last weekend, but I just wanted
Minnesota to do something emphatic against Cincinnati, and they did. I’m
revising that to, if Minnesota wants to have even one slim chance in the
Western Conference, they have to win at two of their next four home games,
minimum.
MONTREAL IMPACT,
9-8-3, 30 points, 24 gf, 31 ga, (5-2-1 home, 4-6-2 away)
Last 10 games: LWLDLWLWWL (4-5-1)
Last 10 at home: LDWLWW
Last 10 away: WLLL
Strength of Schedule: Those aren’t terrible results – and
how many teams in the East have Western Conference teams’ numbers, as Montreal
seems to do. They’re kind of a nightmare, in that they’re the rare team that
can beat anyone, anywhere.
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
v NYC
|
a RB
|
a CIN
|
v NE
|
a LAF
|
v RSL
|
v ORL
|
v SEA
|
v POR
|
a ATL
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
2-4
|
2-1
|
0-3
|
2-1
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
C
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. It took Orji Okwonkwo, a bad defensive scheme,
and a green Portland team for Montreal to win the mid-week fixture against
Portland. They looked pretty goddamn feeble against Atlanta, which sure sounded
mostly like them waiting to expire out there.
Next Games. v Minnesota (7/6), v TFC (7/13), @
Columbus (7/20), v Philadelphia (7/27), @ Colorado (8/3). God knows what they
get out of that, but I’m putting my marker down on at least six points. Because
Montreal. They’re among the most borderline of the M- teams.
CHICAGO FIRE, 4-7-7,
19 points, 26 gf, 27 ga, (4-1-4 home, 0-6-3 away)
Last 10 games: LDWWLDDLDL (2-4-4)
Last 10 at home: WWDD
Last 10 away: LDLDLL
Strength of Schedule: They’re playing a really dense
schedule – honestly – but they’re also not doing much against it. I’m guessing
Chicago isn’t aiming to JUST miss the playoffs.
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
a MTL
|
a LAF
|
v NE
|
v MIN
|
a SJ
|
v NYC
|
a DC
|
a ATL
|
v RSL
|
a NYR
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
1-4
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-3
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. They won the numbers game and the flashes I
saw from Nico Gaitan gave tantalizing tastes of how much better he can make
them, but they haven’t won in six games, and the Red Bulls conjured clean
openings on all of those goals. Also, the road record. Oof.
Next Games. v Atlanta (7/3), @ SKC (7/6), v
Cincinnati (7/13) v Columbus (7/17), @ Philadelphia (7/20). “They need six
points minimum out of that (RSL and Cincy).” While I give them slim chances of
getting anything out of their next three, the State of Ohio has very much
giveth in 2019. I don’t think that’s enough for the Fire, though, not if they
want trophies.
COLORADO RAPIDS, 5-9-4,
19 points, 28 gf, 36 ga, (4-4-2 home, 1-5-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWWDWWDW (5-3-2)
Last 10 at home: LLWWWW
Last 10 away: LWDD
Strength of Schedule: Take out three of those games, and the
Rapids have played teams that, at the time the whistle blew, most people agreed
were/are better teams. Going the other way, the Rapids got three of those five
wins against weaker teams, and at home. Caveat Lector.
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
a ATL
|
v VAN
|
v RSL
|
a LAG
|
v CLB
|
a PHI
|
v CIN
|
v MIN
|
a VAN
|
v LAF
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-3
|
1-0
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
1-0
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
Notes. Colorado didn’t do a lot but they did enough,
and this remains a big scalp for them; 3 unexpected points. The win doesn’t
look all that exciting for them on paper either, so it is really fair to
question my judgment on elevating the Rapids last weekend. I’m downgrading them
this week, but will memorialize my mistake, and try to avoid similar (drunken)
mistakes in the future.
Next Game: v New England (7/4), @ Portland (7/14), v
NYCFC (7/20), @ San Jose (7/27), v Montreal (8/3). We are about to learn a lot
about Colorado…if only at the home games. I give them no chance in either road
game…another vague, yet intended statement to file away.
NEW ENGLAND REVS,
5-8-5, 20 points, 20 gf, 35 ga, (4-4-2 home, 1-4-3 away)
Last 10 games: LDLLWDDWDW (3-3-4)
Last 10 at home: LWDDW
Last 10 away: DLLDW
Strength of Schedule: While that schedule is far from
brutal, the Revs are getting good wins. They’re quietly becoming worth
watching.
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
v MTL
|
a SKC
|
a PHI
|
a CHI
|
v SJ
|
a MTL
|
v DC
|
a LAG
|
v PHI
|
v HOU
|
0-3-
|
4-4
|
1-6
|
0-5
|
3-1
|
0-0
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
M-
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M+
|
Notes. The Revs deserve
full credit for making a home-stand count – especially against that opposition.
But for a garbage goal, they would have beat Philly (even if the game did look
pretty counter-attack, which has its implications, but, between Delamea’s
muscular header and Penilla and Saucedo combining dangerously, the Revs have
some positivity in their wake.
Next Games. @ Colorado (7/4), @ DC (7/12), v
Vancouver (7/17), @ Cincinnati (7/21); v Orlando (7/27). Let’s give them some
space during the transition from not-great-anywhere to good in some places (Los
Angeles, among them).
LOS ANGELES GALAXY,
10-7-1, 31 points, 24 gf, 19 ga, (6-3-0 home, 4-4-1 away)
Last 10 games: WLLLLWWLWL (4-6-0)
Last 10 at home: WLLL
Last 10 away: LLWWWL
Strength of Schedule: That win in Orlando feels like LA’s
last good moment. And that’s not a tough schedule for a team of LA’s history
and resources. Hence the harsh downgrade.
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
v RSL
|
a RB
|
a CLB
|
v NYC
|
v COL
|
a ORL
|
a SKC
|
v NE
|
a CIN
|
a SJ
|
2-1
|
2-3
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
1-0
|
2-0
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
0-3
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. Got run over in the one game they played over
the weekend (confirmation), and the patterns have turned from weird to ugly;
the Galaxy can lose anywhere, and at random. It gets a good deal worse when you
look at where they’re finding wins. Back to the “resources” question: is LA
stuck back in MLS 2.0?
Next Games. v TFC (7/4), v San Jose (7/12), v LAFC
(7/19) @ Portland (7/27), @ Atlanta (8/3). Their road warrior days continue,
but I’m watching that (nearly back-to-back) double against San Jose as a solid
way to take their temperature.
TORONTO FC, 6-7-5, 23
points, 30 gf, 31 ga, (4-3-3 home, 2-4-2 away)
Last 10 games: LLDLLDDLWD (1-5-4)
Last 10 at home: LDLDW
Last 10 away: LLDLD
Strength of Schedule:
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
a ATL
|
v PHI
|
v DC
|
a RSL
|
v SJ
|
a VAN
|
v SKC
|
a FCD
|
v ATL
|
a DC
|
0-2
|
1-2
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
0-3
|
3-2
|
1-1
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
R
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
Notes. The marquee names for TFC’s week include
Alejandro Pozeulo and Richie Laryea, both of whom came up in contexts both good
and bad for Canada’s flashiest team. Within the nexus of opposition and
location, these count as four big points for Toronto – even more so, given that
their big guns were away at a tournament. Does that make you wonder…?
Next Games. @ LA Galaxy (7/4), @ Montreal (7/13), v
Red Bulls (7/17), v Houston (7/20), v Cincinnati (7/27). “If they’re gonna flip
the script, they need to start doing it now.” They actually made a good start –
hence the upgrade. Assuming basic competence, four of those games feel
winnable. If Toronto comes good, expect to see a rash of “Toronto is back”
stories; remember who they played.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS,
4-6-8, 20 points, 21 gf, 24 ga, (3-3-4 home, 1-3-4 away)
Last 10 games: WWLDDWDDD (3-2-5)
Last 10 at home: WLWDD
Last 10 away: WDD
Strength of Schedule: Call it reasonably tough, but what
have the ‘Caps made out of it? To give a simple accounting, nearly half the
points. Huh.
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
a COL
|
v POR
|
v ATL
|
a SKC
|
a NYR
|
v FCD
|
v TFC
|
v COL
|
a FCD
|
a SEA
|
3-2
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
C
|
M+
|
R
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. They deserve full credit for rescuing the
result in Dallas (and is Venuto’s goal GOTW material?), and Yordy Reyna has
changed his share of games lately. Given how hard Dallas made them work, that’s
a great, fighting result for a team that needs that and more. As much as
Seattle’s (basically) back-up squad labored, Vancouver strikes me as a project
almost as big as Cincinnati’s. I said almost, because at least they have the
foundation.
Next Games. @ LAFC (7/6), v SKC (7/13), @ New England
(7/17), v San Jose (7/20), @ Minnesota (7/27). Against that run of games,
Vancouver’s growing habit of playing for draws looks like a prelude to doom.
DC UNITED, 8-4-7, 31
points, 25 gf, 19 ga, (5-2-4 home, 3-2-3 away)
Last 10 games: LWWDLDDDWD (4-2-4)
Last 10 at home: WWDDWD
Last 10 away: LDLD
Strength of Schedule: Half of those games game against bad
and/or struggling teams (yeah, yeah, Toronto got an upgrade), and they
absolutely threw away their last four home games. I’m sticking with stock down.
L
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
a MIN
|
v CLB
|
v SKC
|
a TFC
|
a HOU
|
a NE
|
v CHI
|
v SJ
|
v ORL
|
v TFC
|
0-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
3-3
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
1-1
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M-
|
M-
|
Notes. The most important positive DC got from this
past week was Wayne Rooney busting his ass and saving games for them. But I
found this key note in the unlikeliest of places (one of The Mothership’s
recaps, probably): “From there, however, D.C. United labored.” I suppose they
can be happy about the draw against Toronto, and I suppose they’ve stabilized
the ship, but…do you believe in DC United right now? The team that hasn’t beat
a good team in 10 games?
Next Game: @ Dallas (7/4), v New England (7/12), @ Cincinnati
(7/18), @ Atlanta (7/21), @ Chicago (7/27). [NOTE: I fucked up their future
games real bad. Sorry. Fixed now.] If they can’t get six points out of that
stretch, they’re dropping to road-kill.
ROAD-KILL
SPORTING KC, 4-6-7, 19
points, 27 gf, 29 ga, (3-2-3 home, 1-4-4 away)
Last 10 games: DLLDWLDDWL (2-4-4) [Ed. Sorry I had this
wrong last week.]
Last 10 at home: DLDWL
Last 10 away: LDDWL
Strength of Schedule: Nothing special, not for a team that
came into 2019 with the word “contender” floating around it.
D
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
D
|
W
|
L
|
v NE
|
v ATL
|
a DC
|
v VAN
|
v SEA
|
v LAG
|
a HOU
|
a TFC
|
a CLB
|
a RSL
|
4-4
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-2
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
1-0
|
0-2
|
M-
|
C
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
M+
|
R
|
R
|
M+
|
Notes. Even if the game was tighter than it looked,
the fact remains that Sports are dying. Or, rather Sporting is dying. The
damage had been done (twice over) by the time centerback Botond Barath became
the next guy to limp off for this team, but RSL get wide, wailing shots on goal
in this. That shit’s unsustainable.
Next Games. v LAFC (7/3), v Chicago (7/3), @
Vancouver (7/13), v Dallas (7/20), @ NYCFC (7/26). I’d say they need three wins
out of that stretch if they want to have any hope of turning around 2019. It’s
INSANE they’re only five points outside the playoffs, so they COULD turn it
around…I just don’t see how, not even in the near-term.
COLUMBUS CREW SC, 5-11-2,
17 points, 16 gf, 27 ga, (4-5-2 home, 1-6-0 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWLLLDLL (1-8-1)
Last 10 at home: LWLDLL
Last 10 away: LLLL
Strength of Schedule: Not too easy, but the losses to…I was
about to list them, but it’s just WAY too many other teams, and from across the
talent/preparedness spectrum.
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
v DC
|
a HOU
|
a DC
|
v LAG
|
v LAF
|
a MIN
|
a COL
|
v NYC
|
v SKC
|
v ORL
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
3-1
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
2-2
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
M-
|
M+
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
C
|
R
|
M-
|
Notes. Labeling them “road-kill” feels more justified
every time they do something like sit back and let, say, Tesho Akindele score.
Either the transition from Berhalter to Porter will take more time – it’s not
like both guys DON’T have strong opinions – or there’s something toxic floating
in the proverbial swimming pool.
Next Games. @ RSL (7/3), v Seattle (7/6), @ Orlando
(7/13), @ Chicago (7/17), v Montreal (7/20). Leg 1 versus RSL went rather
poorly and that was probably one of Columbus’ two easiest games over this
period. Dying everywhere, and out of excuses.
FC CINCINNATI, 3-13-2,
11 points, 15 gf, 42 ga, (2-4-1 home, 1-9-1 away)
Last 10 games: LLLWLLLLLL (1-9-0)
Last 10 at home: WLLL
Last 10 away: LLLLLL
Strength of Schedule:
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
a NYR
|
a PHI
|
a SJ
|
v MTL
|
a ORL
|
v NYR
|
a COL
|
a NYC
|
v LAG
|
a MIN
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
1-5
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
2-5
|
0-2
|
1-7
|
C
|
C
|
M-
|
M-
|
M+
|
C
|
M-
|
C
|
M+
|
M+
|
Notes. After enjoying a decent spell – one that,
incidentally, extended back through most of their prior game against the Galaxy
– Cincinnati took one hit to the nose and went abjectly fetal against
Minnesota. (As detailed in my extended notes.) They’ll get players back – and
that can’t hurt – but I don’t know how the current roster fits into anything
that’s good enough for the post-season.
Next Games. v Houston (7/6), @ Chicago (7/13), v DC
(7/18), v New England (7/21), @ Toronto (7/27). Damn the odds, I want them to
get more than four points out of this stretch, even if I’m not sure where they
do it. Anything above six points indicates they’ve figured something out.
All right, that’s everything. This feature will return when
league play does...after the first group stage game of the Gold Cup, which,
again, raises questions of competence from those in charge.
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