Wednesday, July 15, 2020

The Magical World of Major League Soccer: Preseason 2.0, Round 1

I'm the guy in yellow...the second one.
To answer the obvious question, yes, I took varieties of long looks at all the games played during the first round of the Magical World of Major League Soccer. I watched all of some games, the MLS in 15 edits of the ones I didn’t get to, plus the very, very short highlights for Sporting Kansas City’s tournament-opening mystery collapse against Minnesota United FC because, two whole goddamn days later, the MLS in 15 edit for that remains pending. With that, welcome to my ongoing compulsion with staying over-informed; gods be praised that it doesn’t carry over to being either timely.

Like a defender marking up on a set-piece (only the set-piece never, never ends), I use these posts and process of writing them mainly to keep touch with what’s happening; they aren’t comprehensive – I let the professionals handle that - but more along the lines of, “wait, Chicago just did what now?,” “when did Pipa Higuain start playing for DC?,” and “maybe this isn’t the season when SKC turns it around?” All that becomes context for what comes next…even if, “in these unprecedented times,” no one knows what will come even two months from them. Still, some thoughts on that…

First, I’m starting to believe they might pull the damn thing off – maybe even without casualties. More to the point, so long as they keep venues at (very) reduced capacity (e.g., 25%, maybe 33%, and in masks and clusters, plus no drinking/eating), plus sufficiently-rigid protocols to preserve them, MLS could maybe even get away with moving players from bubble to bubble (also, via bubbles, aka, chartered flights only) to play out the rest of the…or, rather, a season. I understand how crazy that sounds, but I spend a lot of time thinking about COVID-safe bubbles and with enough thought and expense, plus damn-near total commitment among players, staffs, and the support systems around the teams, I think it’s possible to build functioning bubbles. Which is a long way of admitting that, the likelihood of continuing after the Magical World of Major League Soccer…sorry, Is Back, without infections relies on enough variables as to approach 0%...

…but I'm still guessing they'll try it. And I know I’ll watch it, if up to a point. I don’t know the threshold for infections, or even career-ending disability for a player, that would compel me to whimper enough and do my part to deny the monster life, but think a mass of continued, regular infections and more than one player losing a career would move me to turn it off and condemn the whole affair. Individual beliefs/comfort levels may vary, as they should.

Right, no more madness, let’s get to matches. Below are results and notes on all the results in the first round of the Magical World of Major League Soccer Is Back tournament, listed according to group. I’ll be the first to admit the analysis side is pretty soft, but, given that we’re watching the equivalent of a second preseason, only in a tournament format played in America’s armpit (Florida!) during its swampy season, handicapping the bugger feels impossible; the several surprises that happened – e.g., thanks to tonight’s result, Orlando City SC heard, “you’re going through!” instead of “you are through” for the first time in their MLS lives, and I’m delighted for them – only reinforces the “it’s MLS” within the omnipresent “it’s MLS” we’ve come to expect/rue.

Caveats notwithstanding, the first round results dropped credible hints about which teams look safer than others. I’ll start by pulling Group A out of the sample because, as teased above, Orlando and Philadelphia went through tonight on the back of their Round 2 results (LINK, LINK, and I haven't reviewed either yet). To tick through the rest: I already like the Chicago Fire FC’s shot at the knockout rounds based on how they played the Seattle Sounders today and Robert Beric; Group B also presents as a likely two-team group (as in the third-place team won’t qualify). For Group C, the only thing I’d wager on would be $10 on the New England Revolution getting through; the rest looks too even/messy. With Group D, Colorado strikes me as the odd team out – but I also think that follows from not quite trusting RSL. And yet…

Columbus feels like the safe bet out of Group E, but the likelihood that the two other teams will pummel FC Cincinnati for points simultaneously lowers and raises the stakes for Columbus Crew SC versus Red Bull New York: a win puts either through, but a draw still leaves both with a tangible advantage. Finally, I’d be shocked (also pissed…and a little hurt at this point) if the Portland Timbers don’t qualify out of Group F (here, “qualify” means the automatic spots), but I’d also rather be a fan of the Houston Dynamo and Los Angeles FC than a fan of the Los Angeles Galaxy.

Anyway, that’s the big picture. All the results and notes are listed below, with links to the MLSSoccer.com post-game capsules for each. For anyone who has the time/interest, you can get a fair amount out of those things.

Group A
Orlando City SC 2-1 Inter Miami CF
New York City FC 0-1 Philadelphia Union
I’ll be damned if Orlando and Nani, didn’t both show up. Orlando’s OG-DP created their first goal with a beauty pass to Chris Mueller beauty run, then started and (with The Gods blessing him) finished their second. Miami’s most exciting difference-maker, Pizarro, came on too late to do anything more than give me the vapors, so they relied on Juan Agudelo, that well of ever-diminishing promise (he’s still just 27), for their one goal. It wasn’t terrible or anything, even if the over-load that produced it looked cluttered and accidental, but there’s something “almost-there” about too many of Miami’s players – e.g., Victor Ulloa (who assisted on the goal, and nicely, btw), Wil Trapp, Agudelo, obviously, but maybe even Ben Sweat and Mikey Ambrose. I mean, we’ll see where Miami goes from here, but they look a season away from ready…something that came into sharper focus while reviewing Philly’s 1-0 win over an aimless NYCFC team. NYC cleaned up on the attacking stats and they had the game’s artful moment when they finally gave Heber a clear shot on goal. Philly’s Andre Blake palmed away his far-post bid in style, but one good set-up promises more of them (right?!)…but then you read that NYCFC will be without Maxi Moralez for “many weeks,” and you have to think their floor just fell out. Alejandro Bedoya’s goal came “v/m v r.o.p.” per my notes (“very much against the run of play”), but Philly looked more the part overall and their new kid in the middle, Jose Martinez, caught the eye almost as much as the Black Lives Matter tribute on their jerseys.

Group B
Seattle Sounders 0-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Chicago Fire FC 2-1 Seattle Sounders
Seattle v. San Jose was a game to make you hate soccer. Yeah, I see the teams combined for 28 shots – 14 of them on goal – but none were memorable. The ‘Quakes looked the better team until just about everyone’s legs gave out, at which point the game devolved into 22 marathoners cramping and staggering toward the finish line, a 90-minute visual of a lack of match fitness. Also, and damn the COVID-driven group realignments, because this group is all kinds of out-of-fucked-up-order; Vancouver has yet to play, and that leaves the second group playing last…so far (I haven’t looked that far ahead). Seattle’s second game in the tournament saw them hand all three points to…a Chicago team that, by every measure, plus the eye test, looked good for the win. Besides looking like the best player on the field, Chicago’s Robert Beric scored a beauty (my Goal of the Round (“GotR”), fwiw). Seattle has a history of slow starts that don’t seem to matter and, with a depleted Vancouver team looking primed to hand them 3 points, they’ll land on four points total and they could go through on that because, 1) dumber things have happened, and 2) that kind of assholery is 100% on brand for Seattle. To float a personal theory as to why it might not: Seattle’s successes have reliably followed from a strong defense, and this could be the first season they don’t have one. Moreover, they need to get it right right now, instead of taking their usual four months to get their shit together.

Group C
Montreal Impact 0-1 New England Revolution
Toronto FC 2-2 DC United
The group opened with the Revolution menacing Montreal and Montreal (more or less) firing back at the death through Ballou Tabla (Matt Turner is a very good shot-stopper, btw). Montreal might have out-possessed the Revs, but the balance of potentiality favored New England. Gustavo Bou put shot after promising shot on, near and/or towards Montreal’s goal; Carles Gil pitched in a couple, and Carlos Penilla skipped a beauty past the far post in the first half: the whole thing looked (in 15 minute highlights) like a clinic that Montreal neither wanted nor paid for. Related, I see real potential in a Scott Caldwell/Kelyn Rowe central midfield – especially with all that quality running around in front of it, and Bruce Arena giving direction. As for TFC v DC, how the hell did Toronto blow this one? Two goals and one man up at the half (Junior Moreno got sent off for DC, deservedly), and they pissed that away? DC fought for it, to their credit, even if they fought like angry drunks (hello, clumsy fouls!), and having a little bit of class in the form of Federico Higuain helped, but all the questions from this one surround TFC. Toronto’s Ayo Akinola ate up a lot of the commentary, and he did look good/like a very fast tank, and gods know they have good creative players around him (e.g., Alejandro Pozuelo for sure, Pablo Piatti, aspirationally), but, given the circumstances, they laid an egg. As much as anything else, it leaves a lot of open questions about the group.

Group D
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake 2-0 Colorado Rapids
I caught most of RSL’s win over the Rapids and, honestly, I’m not sure what and/or how much to take outta that one. On the one hand, the Rapids looked the better team over 2/3 of the field – e.g., the middle third and, at least in one direction (facing forward), their defensive third – while RSL looked better on a different 2/3 – e.g., the attacking third, often as they could find it, and their defensive third where they stymied Colorado, who…what? They never shot 11. At any rate, and despite their strong start to the regular 2020 regular season, the Rapids didn’t give an impression of a dangerous team; RSL, meanwhile, managed only one lucky goal (the first) and one soft one (the second). Moving on to SKC v MIN, and only very short highlights and a box score to read it, I don’t have a clear enough sense of Kansas City’s collapse. I’ll start by disagreeing about Tim Melia’s sending off (I found the “defenders behind him” logic defensible), but that didn’t (appear to) lead directly to Minnesota’s late goals. They got both in the end and Kevin Molino did several good things in this game. Also, the Loons are rolling, no matter what the wheels look like, and confidence (and its opposite) are contagious. So…who gets out from here? I like Minnesota’s chances, obviously, but the rest looks pretty open to me.

Group E
Atlanta United FC 0-1 New York Red Bulls
FC Cincinnati 0-4 Columbus Crew SC
Even with people on twitter making a credible case that a couple of their goals shouldn’t have counted, Cincy fans will talk with psychiatric professionals about what Columbus did to their team for a year or two. (I elaborated on the doses of pain and humiliation in a separate post.) I tuned in late to Atlanta’s loss to New York and, golly, I should try phrasing like that more often, because that’s exactly what happened: Red Bulls frustrated Atlanta’s passing here and there, but the real failure followed from Atlanta’s inability to get much going. While I don’t see great things in Cincy’s near-future, I am glad they’ll play Atlanta before New York because, as noted in that separate post, if Columbus could fluster Cincy to paralysis, they’ll need all the practice they can get before coping with New York’s. To address the one team I left hanging above, I don’t see Atlanta beating Cincinnati as necessarily automatic, but I can’t imagine they want to go into the final group game needing a result against Columbus. Just to note it, the coffee will pour early Thursday. I’ll be taking in Atlanta v Cincy live. While I’m sure it can’t be worse, I’m still terrified.

Group F
Houston Dynamo 3-3 Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 Portland Timbers
Houston might have played a couple miles over the raw numbers (and what’s with the near-post goals in this tourney?), but the fact remains that LAFC allowed the goals and, for those counting at home, that’s the second 3-3 (competitive) draw of 2020 for them (the other was the Union back in March). Tempting fate by flying forward – and, related thereto, the box score looks like murder in numbers form – doesn’t always give the best returns and that’s something for teams adept at countering to keep in mind. Speaking of, and despite a long reputation for exactly that, Portland didn’t take that route in their win over the Galaxy. I have extended (and happy!) notes on that game. Shaky moments here and there aside, the Timbers made consistent efforts to pace the game and looked four-to-five games ahead of the Galaxy for cohesion while doing it. The results put Portland in the driver’s seat and with the least complicated out of the group for their next game. To be clear, I have no idea how Portland stacks up against Houston, but I suspect and believe they’ll neither hand them opportunities to counter nor run them over the way LAFC did. It’s possible they’re committing (re-committing?) to a methodical approach (also, please don’t against LAFC), but I also think that could force Houston to go toe-to-toe, a contest I don’t think they win. Also, the Galaxy looks less prepared than Houston to punish LAFC’s recklessness, and that makes me like LAFC’s chance in that game, and therefore Portland’s chances overall.

Right, that’s it for this stuff until the match reports and the end of Round 2, which happens…

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