Monday, July 20, 2020

The Magical World of Major League Soccer: Preseason 2.0, Round 2, The Narrowing Field

For your nightmares...
With the Magic World of Major League Soccer bubble keeping the COVID at bay, the MLS Is Back tournament has given fans the guilty pleasure they want, but without the guilt (so far). And, since it looks like we’re dealing with a regular tournament, let’s dig into the second game of Preseason 2.0 for…most concerned.

Like last week, I listed results and notes below according to group, with a note about how long a look I got at the game - e.g., “baby highlights,” (the four minute jobbers on MLS site), MLS in 15 (from the MLS App), a half a game, or the full 90. Only the two teams I track, the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati, got the full 90 treatment this week. Life, man…here goes.

Group A
New York City FC 1-3 Orlando City (MLS in 15)
Philadelphia Union 2-1 Inter Miami CF (MLS in 15)
NYCFC scored the better goal, but Orlando got three of ‘em – even if the first should have been offside. New York created more (general) chances (but Orlando put as many on goal), so the final score flatters Orlando a bit, but Orlando’s ‘keeper, Pedro Gallese, kept out a lot of shots and Valentin Castellanos missed the rest (not really, but it totally looked that way). Another take could be that Orlando got started before NYCFC got their shoes on – both of Chris Mueller’s goals came in the first 10 minutes (I think) – and that’s the real story of what looked like an otherwise balanced game. Group A’s other second game saw Philly slip past a Miami team that, just found out, hasn’t earned a point in MLS yet (and…still waiting), in a game that, by everything I’ve looked at, looked too close for Philly’s comfort. Brenden Aaronson continues to impress (didn’t know he had those wheels) and he had a hand in both Union goals, but this looked more like Philly punishing Miami’s breakdowns that dominating the game. (That said, the Union showed what they can do by putting together a little move that almost earned them a late goal; fun). My own personal Rodolfo Pizarro watch continues, and his inter-play to creating the goal promises fun things ahead, if not always good ones. As noted in last week’s recap, these results put both Orlando and Philly through to the knockout round, and the two teams will square off for bragging rights in the final Group A game. As for Miami, I thought NYCFC looked good enough to beat them, and they did, so…still waiting on that first point. For what it’s worth, this looks like one of the likeliest groups to send just two teams to the knockout rounds.

Group B
Vancouver Whitecaps 3-4 San Jose Earthquakes (MLS in 15)
[Chicago Fire 2-1 Seattle Sounders] (MLS in 15)
Chicago Fire FC 0-2 San Jose Earthquakes (The final 50 minutes, give or take)
Seattle Sounders 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps (I couldn’t be bothered)
“This has been a strange game.”
- An understatement from the broadcast booth.

I covered Chicago’s win over Seattle in last week’s recap, which leaves more room to examine the freak game that had MWoMLS buzzing last week. The fact that some of Vancouver’s big names stayed home (e.g., Lucas Cavallini, Fredy Montero, Georges Mukumbilwa, Tosaint Ricketts and Andy Rose) made them a popular candidate for an early bounce outta Disneyworld, so seeing the ‘Quakes run up legit crazy numbers against them (30 shots, 11 on goal; close to 70% on possession) shouldn’t surprise anyone. The way the game played out, on the other hand… I’m pretty high on Ali Adnan, Jr., so I didn’t blink when he grabbed the opener, but the ‘Caps other two goals were masterpieces of absurdity: Vancouver would have fucked up one of the simplest counters you’ll ever see had Judson not capped it by bumbling in an own-goal; San Jose ‘keeper Daniel Vega gifted them another with a disastrous give-away in his own area. The ‘Quakes, in other words, did more on the sharp end of the game to keep Vancouver in it than Vancouver did. San Jose recovered via four goals, at least two of them just plain weird and three arguably fortunate. Shea Salinas won the game with one of those fortunate goals, barging his way through Vancouver’s right for the win in second half stoppage. Neither team came out looking good…until, that is, San Jose first bullied, then blanked Chicago last night. I was cooking as I watched (and talking to my wife, asking her if she thinks this or that player is cute), but my general impression was, Robert Beric looks like a good-to-very-good pick-up, but, because they’re still getting sorted, San Jose team knocked them off their stride and that gave them space to score two solid goals (and Wondo’s still freakin’ going, people). The ‘Quakes took the group with the win and, despite the slow start, Seattle’s win over Vancouver - which I skipped reviewing, because what else was gonna happen? (never fall for the slow start; Seattle’s like a fucking serial killer at the end of a slasher flick; they're never dead!) - lifted them to four points and a +2 goal differential, and that should see them through (and, it turns out, it does). The only question left in Group B: whether Chicago can pound three points out of the ‘Caps, aka, the lunch-money machine. My guess is they’ll do it, but they’ll need a win to pass into the knockouts without getting any mud on ‘em. We’re about to see what Chicago’s made of…I mean, if you can’t beat the ‘Caps with one hand tied behind your back, do you really have the Disney magic?

Group C
Montreal Impact 3-4 Toronto FC (MLS in 15)
DC United 1-1 New England Revolution (Baby highlights and a box score)
Montreal battled Toronto to the second 4-3 games in as many nights, only this time, a little competence came ‘round to bless the proceedings. Ayo Akinola’s hat trick stole the banner headlines (the kid has five (5) goals over MWoMLS), but the rest of the league should try to get ahead of what Pablo Piatti and Alejandro Pozuelo (who has five assists) look to be cooking up; those two had several silky moments and the latter made Akinola’s first goal a tap-in. Cutting against that, TFC has averaged a shaky 2.5 goals/game, something that surely has TFC fans feeling skittish - not least because I’m not seeing any notable absences in the line-up. Is it possible DC, Montreal or both is that smooth in the attack? Mmmabye. Romell Quioto looked real lively and Montreal created more chances than Toronto; Toronto responded with greater efficiency in the attack and it worked, but, unless you believe they’ve faced their worst, that’s a red flag. In the here and now, that result left L’Impact holding on by a finger tip; barring a miracle, they’re only around to give DC someone to play at this point. How’ll that go? Judging by Group C’s other second game, New England (like Toronto) gifted an equalizer to a DC United team that both the box score and (limited) video suggests they outplayed more than a little. Still, a win could see DC win the group - i.e., if TFC and New England draw and DC beats Montreal by two goals or more - but they look more like a tough out (often by the grace of Bill Hamid) than a competitive team. DC has needed too much help to look convincing, basically. I wouldn’t write-off a TFC/New England draw, not with both teams looking more than capable of scoring: seeing Gustavo Bou, Cristian Penilla, Adam Buksa, Carles Gil square off against Piatti, Pozuelo and - why not? - Akinole sets up as one of the better attacking battles of the group stages. Group C has lined up one hell of a finale, among the best in the tournament.

Group D
Sporting Kansas City 3-2 Colorado Rapids (MLS in 15)
Real Salt Lake 0-0 Minnesota United FC (MLS in 15, sadly)
Given the totality of events, the biggest surprise came with Colorado equalizing the game at 2-2 playing two men down (nice goal too, Jonathan Lewis!). From what I watched, Colorado started strong (and went up 1-0, great goal by Kellyn Acosta) only to fade chance-by-chance and, in the second half, player-by-player. The Rapids’ Danny Wilson should have just muttered, “yup,” and walked off for his red card, but I need to believe that Jack Price said something to curdle milk and make angels weep to see a straight red (also, in Price’s defense, the officiating did blow more than a little). Even if they had to strain for it, and that defense continues to bear watching, SKC looked good for the win. Better still, Alan Pulido looks both comfortable and good enough to hint that they might have ended their eternal star search for a killer forward; Khiry Shelton keeps popping up in highlights as well. As for Colorado, they’re dead in every sense but the mathematical, but Nicolas Benezet looks like a smart pick-up, I’ve seen more of Acosta this season than in seasons past and the kid they’ve got in goal, William Yarbrough, plays like a lunatic (in a good way; loves coming off his line). I think the word is “scrappy.” Group D’s other second round game ended even per the box score, but I still rate Minnesota’s chances a little higher going forward based on what looks like a brick-wall defense and promising flashes of leg from Robin Lod and Kevin Molino (who looked like the best attacking player on the field). I’m still sorting out RSL, and this didn’t convince me one way or the other any more than the win over Colorado. That same tenuous vibe could very well stick to RSL for a while; they’re close, RSL, but I think they’re staying off most people’s personal hype-train for a reason. Overall, I like SKC’s chances against RSL and I expect Minnesota to beat what looks like a decent - but entertaining, dammit! - Colorado team (once you know how rare that is…). Moreover, this group looks virtually certain to send three teams through, just not Colorado…

Group E
Atlanta United FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati (A baffling and full 90 minutes)
Columbus Crew SC 2-0 New York Red Bulls (Baby highlights and a box score)
I wrote separate notes for Cincy’s “surprise” win over Atlanta, and those should only surprise someone who missed the chatter about Atlanta’s very real struggles, which, now that MLS Is Back, went global. When a team can’t score, all it takes is a Frankie (or is it Frank?) Amaya wonder-goal to up-end assumptions…and look what just happened? As for the other game, the limited material I have suggests two things: 1) this was a close game (box score), and 2) when Columbus carved open the Red Bulls they made them freeway size. Both of Crew SC’s goals rate as a combination of elegant and menacing; if they can keep the other team at bay and create chances like this, and with players at that level on the end of it, they look to have a couple strong seasons ahead. Atlanta, incredibly, still has a chance - i.e., a negative goal differential that’s one slimmer than Cincy’s - but they still have to beat a Columbus team that the other two teams failed to score against. The question hanging over Cincinnati’s chances is pretty straightforward: how good (or bad) are the Red Bulls right now? In my write-up on their opening loss to Columbus, I fretted both mightily and reasonably about how Cincy would hold up against New York’s press, and I still see that as a greater, specific danger. New York is not a high-scoring team, at least not in constructive terms, so I figure Cincinnati’s chances hang on how well they hold their shit together.

Group F
Portland Timbers 2-1 Houston Dynamo (90 anxious minutes)
Los Angeles FC 6-2 Los Angeles Galaxy (Baby highlights and a box score)
Again, I wrote a separate post for the Timbers’ win over Houston, but, here’s the short version in three bullet points:

- Houston played the aggressor (though, as I later discovered, that didn’t show in the box score), but they struggled to mightily with the final ball;

- Portland turned in a calm, cool, collected performance and made the most of its best chances; and

- That felt like a fair representation of both teams - Houston, for the past five seasons, arguably.

Elsewhere, in a Los Angeles transplanted to Orlando, the fact that LAFC scored seven of the eight goals says a thing or three about the Galaxy, while the box score adds a critique or two. Again, I didn’t see enough of what LAFC did to the Galaxy to argue anything with confidence. I do know, however, that the Galaxy looked fuzzy AF against Portland, showing more incoherence than bright spots (it’s lonely, isn’t it, Cristian Pavon?), and very much doubt this result stunned the soccer world or anything. As for what happens next, it’s possible we’ll get something close to nothing out of LAFC v Portland. The former’s goal differential makes them look just as certain to go through as Portland’s six points - LAFC has a five goal advantage over Houston, the only team that can catch them, so even second place looks safe - and that makes it harder to know how either team will play this game. LA seems likelier to play for the win, but this tournament scrambled incentives in truly unique ways (e.g., when your players still need match fitness, how much sense does it make to rest any of them?), so…I dunno, serve it up, I guess. For what it’s worth, I want to see the Timbers go head-to-head against LAFC, and damn the consequences: worst-case, Portland loses the game, but players gain match fitness (no injuries, dammit!).

Well, that’s the lay of the land heading into the (rest of the) final games of the group stage. So, that’s six teams qualified: Orlando, Philly, Columbus, Portland, San Jose and Seattle. And, to get ‘em all in one place, here are the remaining match-ups, including dates:

Philly v Orlando (7/20)
TFC v New England (7/21)
Atlanta v Columbus (7/21)
Montreal v DC (7/21)
RSL v SKC (7/22)
Cincinnati v RBNY (7/22)
Colorado v Minnesota (7/22)
Chicago v Vancouver (7/23)
Galaxy v Houston (7/23)
LAFC v Portland (7/23)

I’m skipping the comprehensive review thing for this last set of games. Instead, I’ll focus on the matches the strike me as more important to future developments - e.g., the ones in bold type above - to fill in some blind-spots and see if I can’t build a better knockout round preview out of it. Close observers may note that neither Portland’s game nor Cincinnati’s are in bold and, yes, that’s deliberate. I’m not saying that nothing important can come out of either game - e.g., if Portland manages LAFC, people would be right to sit up and take notice - but it would take something just plain daffy to rewrite assumptions about either group or any given team’s chances. It’ll be a challenge to fit it all together, especially in time, but we’ll see how it goes.

Until the write-up on whatever happens between Cincy and the Red Bulls…

1 comment:

  1. I would love to see PTFC beat LAFC by 6 goals and bring Houston into the next round. It could be just 3 if Houston can do the same against LAG.

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