Level Set 16, Orlando City SC: Life After Breaking a Bad Model

A ringer. Not pictured: Kaka or Nani.

What follows is a brief history of Orlando City SC, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed on both sides of that and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., before First Kick 2026. You should count on things happening between here and there.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

Thumbnail History
Orlando City SC’s history follows the redemption variety of the expansion team narrative: eating shit for several seasons before finding their feet and running with the rest of the league. Ever the ambitious organization, they sought to avoid that fate on Day 1, if with a fatal flaw – e.g., bringing in (aging) Brazilian great Kaka on joining MLS in 2015 and, after he moved on, trying an updated version of the same thing luring (aging) Portuguese great Nani to Orlando in 2019. MLS broadcasters dutifully hyped both players, but Kaka never carried them to the playoffs and Nani would burn one season he could barely afford to (because, again, old) before Orlando finally built a roster equal to the work of pushing the team higher. It wasn’t for lack of trying, either: Orlando’s all-time roster (these things vary widely btw, but this is one of the good ones) amounts to a casting call of the good, the great and the reliable from teams all over MLS, maybe even yours. Unfortunately, few of them lasted long and even fewer of them delivered the goods. Orlando’s turning point came in the Weird Year, aka, 2020, aka, the COVID season, when they not only made the “real” playoffs for the first time (quarterfinals, baby!), but also reached their first final in the MLS Is Back tournament (won by my Portland Timbers!). That run could have been written off as Orlando enjoying homefield advantage throughout that tournament, but that argument never went far - it's not like they had fans cheering them on where other teams didn’t (no one did) – and they’ve (broadly) proved themselves a better organization season on season from there. Even if the Joy Points Scale doesn’t pick it up*, the Lions have qualified for the playoffs, if only as a wild-card team, from 2020 forward. More significantly, Orlando has found 1) reliable, if limited, consistency and 2) made improved showings in each of the 2023 and 2024 post-seasons. They bowed out to the eventual champs in both years and pushed (a damn good) Columbus to the wall and/or extra-time in the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2023 (2024 Red Bull was the other team; reached the Eastern Conference final that season). That’s something the, say, 2017 and 2018 teams could hardly imagine. The “Sign Famous Old Guy” model died a righteous and deserved death, which is good, but that takes us to…

Getting Reacquainted with Orlando City SC, MLS's Solid B Students

My man, bringing all the good not great.

Thumbnail History
Orlando City SC’s history follows the redemption variety of the expansion team narrative: eating shit for several seasons before finding their feet and running with the rest of the league. Ever the ambitious organization, they signed to avoid that fate on Day 1, if with a fatal flaw – e.g., bringing in (aging) Brazilian great Kaka on joining MLS in 2015 and, after he moved on, trying an updated version of the same thing luring (aging) Portuguese great Nani to Orlando in 2019. MLS broadcasters dutifully hyped both players, but Kaka never carried them to the playoffs and Nani would burn one season he could barely afford to (because, again, old) before Orlando finally built a roster equal to the work of pushing the team higher. It wasn’t for lack of trying, either: Orlando’s all-time roster (these things vary widely, but that's one of the good ones, btw) amounts to a casting call of the good, the great and the reliable from teams all over MLS, maybe even yours. Unfortunately, few of them lasted long and even fewer of them delivered the goods. Orlando’s turning point came in the Weird Year, aka, 2020, aka, the COVID season, when they not only made the “real” playoffs for the first time (quarterfinals, baby!), but also reached their first final in the MLS Is Back tournament (won by my Portland Timbers!). The near term could have been written off as Orlando enjoying homefield advantage throughout that tournament, but that argument never went far - it's not like they had fans cheering them on where other teams didn’t (no one did) – and they’ve (broadly) proved themselves a better organization season on season. Even if the Joy Points Scale doesn’t pick it up*, the Lions have qualified for the playoffs, if only as a wild-card team (and on a regrettably bloated invitation list), from 2020 forward. More significantly, Orlando has found 1) a reliable, if limited, consistency and 2) have clawed a little higher in each of the past two post-seasons. I speak to the 2024 season below, and finally start naming names, but they also pushed eventual champs (and damn good team) Columbus Crew SC to extra-time in the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2023. That’s something the, say, 2017 and 2018 teams could hardly imagine. The “Sign Famous Old Guy” model died a righteous and deserved death.

Total Joy Points: 2

How They Earned Them (& *How This Is Calculated, for Reference)
MLS Is Back Runner-Up: 2020
MLS Playoffs Semifinals: 2024
MLS Playoffs/Quarterfinals: 2020, 2023
U.S. Open Cup: 2021

New York City FC 1-3 Portland Timbers: Good as Advertized

C'mon on in to The Church of Happy, MFs!

Turns out it takes just one goal to improve one’s opinion on a team’s chances.

I expected a close game tonight. I even expected one team or the other to go up a goal during regulation. To clarify the thought, given the quality in both teams’ attacking personnel and/or general capabilities, no universe exists in which either the Portland Timbers or New York City FC does not score during regulation. Tonight, it was NYCFC, and through a penalty kick they earned more in spirit than the moment - i.e., New York was applying most the pressure, but most refs wouldn’t call what Larrys Mabiala did to Jesus Medina (right?) a foul in the middle of the field, never mind the area. Doesn’t matter, Medina buries the penalty kick and NYCFC goes up 1-0 at the 27th minute. So that’s that, they scored the inevitable, in-regulation goal…the real question was how the team that gave up that first goal would respond.

The Timbers answered inside the first half, building a goal from the back and out of trouble, more or less totally in control from their defensive third into NYCFC’s. The one time they lost control saw Jorge Villafana’s cross ping off some body part or another from a New York defender and into the path of Sebastian Blanco, who only had to feint and fire just so to put the Timbers back on level terms; the move as a whole, however, put NYC on notice. Full credit to New York, because they had Portland chasing from…something like the 10th minute to something like the 30th. Still, the Timbers showed they could break NYCFC’s lines nearly every time they could get their heads up; New York just made that hard for a while. This was a fun game to watch, full stop, a chess-match built of positives, where both teams left space for the game to move in either direction. There are few pleasures greater in soccer, perhaps even in sports generally, than watching two teams that believe they’re the better one. Both teams underlined that claim with scattered incidents of minor violence. No soccer players were injured in the filming of this documentary, etc.

I expected something from NYCFC tonight, something I’d expected from earlier games in the MLS Is Back tournament, but, point of interest, did not see: they tend to out-pass teams, pace the game, and generally manage possession. Here’s the thing: after failing to do that against Orlando City SC and Inter Miami CF (wait a tic…both Florida teams), NYC reverted to their familiar “high-usage” formula, where they boot around the ball probing for openings…at least that’s what 200 more passes and lots of aimless television told me. All that time got wasted because the Timbers also reverted to type: give them the ball and space to play in, they will string you like a dazed fish. And that brings us to Portland’s second goal…

FC Cincinnati 2-0 New York Red Bulls: The Incredible Power of Being Under-Estimated

Stunningly, this is not an oft-used phrase...

When I first started writing about the Portland Timbers the second time around, there was a guy in the blogging community who named his site Possession with Purpose. Before going on, I want to make one thing very clear, he was a good guy (met him once or twice), I had no beef with his content, etc. etc. It was the name of his site that got to me, specifically, the implication of possession itself as an objective good. I found that unbelievably distracting, and with the emphasis on unbelievably. Possession is fine when, obviously…when it works.

Before I start obsessing about the New York Red Bulls, I want to make one more thing very clear, clearer even than the point above: FC Cincinnati deserved its sleepwalk-of-2-0 win over New York. More than that, I want to talk about what they’ve accomplished over…two short games (I mean, obviously, what happened against Columbus, 1) stands tall against the point I’m making and, 2) was extraordinarily agonizing to watch…like a bully beating his victim, I tell you.). The 2019 season saw (for those who need reminding, aka, no one) Cincinnati post the record for the most goals allowed in Major League Soccer history; they turned in the worst-ever goal differential, and by a wider margin. Cincy’s defense was fucking horrific last season - and yet they’re headed into the knockout rounds of MLS Is Back with just a -1 goal differential. Yes, both Atlanta United FC and the Red Bulls sucked far, far worse than anyone (or most people) expected and that’s part of it. I’ll get to that, trust me. Sticking with Cincinnati…

My wife came down mid-way through the second half and, things being as they were by that time, of course I drifted out of the game now and again (and again) talking to her, sometimes about completely different subjects. When I looked up, though, the same broad plot-lines stood out. First, Cincinnati rarely had possession, but they always looked sharper and, this is big, more certain in possession when they had it. I wouldn’t even call it counter-attacking soccer, either, and that’s as a good thing. Once Cincy established possession and got their heads up, they started moving forward, creating passing options and looking for them. By the time went up two goals (56th minute), and forgot all about the trap-door they’d stood on going into the game, I’d even say that got a little jiggy with it, e.g., throwing in the odd back-heel, stepping over the ball to dummy it to another player; they looked like a team having fun, and why not? I’m not arguing it was random, or that it came from nothing, so much as I’m praising its composure.

The Magical World of Major League Soccer: Preseason 2.0, Round 2, The Narrowing Field

For your nightmares...

With the Magic World of Major League Soccer bubble keeping the COVID at bay, the MLS Is Back tournament has given fans the guilty pleasure they want, but without the guilt (so far). And, since it looks like we’re dealing with a regular tournament, let’s dig into the second game of Preseason 2.0 for…most concerned.

Like last week, I listed results and notes below according to group, with a note about how long a look I got at the game - e.g., “baby highlights,” (the four minute jobbers on MLS site), MLS in 15 (from the MLS App), a half a game, or the full 90. Only the two teams I track, the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati, got the full 90 treatment this week. Life, man…here goes.

Group A
New York City FC 1-3 Orlando City (MLS in 15)
Philadelphia Union 2-1 Inter Miami CF (MLS in 15)
NYCFC scored the better goal, but Orlando got three of ‘em – even if the first should have been offside. New York created more (general) chances (but Orlando put as many on goal), so the final score flatters Orlando a bit, but Orlando’s ‘keeper, Pedro Gallese, kept out a lot of shots and Valentin Castellanos missed the rest (not really, but it totally looked that way). Another take could be that Orlando got started before NYCFC got their shoes on – both of Chris Mueller’s goals came in the first 10 minutes (I think) – and that’s the real story of what looked like an otherwise balanced game. Group A’s other second game saw Philly slip past a Miami team that, just found out, hasn’t earned a point in MLS yet (and…still waiting), in a game that, by everything I’ve looked at, looked too close for Philly’s comfort. Brenden Aaronson continues to impress (didn’t know he had those wheels) and he had a hand in both Union goals, but this looked more like Philly punishing Miami’s breakdowns that dominating the game. (That said, the Union showed what they can do by putting together a little move that almost earned them a late goal; fun). My own personal Rodolfo Pizarro watch continues, and his inter-play to creating the goal promises fun things ahead, if not always good ones. As noted in last week’s recap, these results put both Orlando and Philly through to the knockout round, and the two teams will square off for bragging rights in the final Group A game. As for Miami, I thought NYCFC looked good enough to beat them, and they did, so…still waiting on that first point. For what it’s worth, this looks like one of the likeliest groups to send just two teams to the knockout rounds.

Atlanta United FC 0-1 FC Cincinnati: Frankie Learns to Ride a Bike

Frankie Amaya, just a couple weeks ago...

With the second yellow/sending off of Atlanta United FC’s Jake Mulraney, a game that started as a salvage operation for FC Cincinnati evolved into something else. And I’m not even going to attempt to describe what that is because a dog-pile of weirdness surrounds FC Cincy’s 1-0 win over Atlanta this morning. Where to begin…

If you’re a parent, especially of a very young kid, you’ve had that moment where you can’t talk your kid into something you know they’re gonna love – think, say, riding a bike. To carry the analogy one step further, think of Mulraney’s sending off as training wheels. To set the scene: there you are, your kid is propped up on a bike that’s basically arranged to not fall down. All your son or daughter needs to do is pedal.

The question that lingers about this game for me was the extent to which Cincinnati’s still-brand-new head coach, Jaap Stam, encouraged his charges to starting pushing the pedals. Prior to Mulraney’s secondyellow, Cincinnati clearly lined up and played with avoiding a loss as the highest priority…which made sense after the searing blow-out against Columbus Crew SC a few days back. It’s after the red card where the questions came in. I didn’t expect them to fly forward the second Victor Rivas (the ref) flashed the red – as made plain today, Cincinnati has only vague theories about how to get to goal at this point – but as, it grew increasingly obvious that Atlanta shares the same weakness, I expected a little more urgency out of the Orange and Blue.

The one player to consistently provide it was Joe Gyau, who figured out early, and then again later, that he could play around whoever Atlanta played at left back. In fact, the duel between Gyau and Atlanta’s Edgar Castillo (subbed on to replace the absent Mulraney) provided the only fireworks worth watching in what otherwise played out as one dull, aimless fucking game. Cincy bunkered from the start, but the whole thing devolved into wayward crosses over dueling sets of low-blocks and general flailing.

In an attempt to conjure up a frame for the game, Taylor Twellman and Jon Champion floated the question of how large/long this win will linger in Cincinnati fans’ shared history. Speaking solely for myself, I’ll strive mightily to forget it after this post goes up. I don’t intend that to take anything away from the man of the hour, Frankie Amaya, who scored an absolutely cracking first professional goal; that the team made it stay up (assist by Atlanta) will leave him with a memory he’ll carry around for life. I’m not even going to fart around with my usual theories of replicability (i.e., did Cincy find a reliable route to goal) on the grounds that, when a player hits the ball that beautifully, it is good and right to take off your hat and say, “well done, son!”

The Magical World of Major League Soccer: Preseason 2.0, Round 1

I'm the guy in yellow...the second one.

To answer the obvious question, yes, I took varieties of long looks at all the games played during the first round of the Magical World of Major League Soccer. I watched all of some games, the MLS in 15 edits of the ones I didn’t get to, plus the very, very short highlights for Sporting Kansas City’s tournament-opening mystery collapse against Minnesota United FC because, two whole goddamn days later, the MLS in 15 edit for that remains pending. With that, welcome to my ongoing compulsion with staying over-informed; gods be praised that it doesn’t carry over to being either timely.

Like a defender marking up on a set-piece (only the set-piece never, never ends), I use these posts and process of writing them mainly to keep touch with what’s happening; they aren’t comprehensive – I let the professionals handle that - but more along the lines of, “wait, Chicago just did what now?,” “when did Pipa Higuain start playing for DC?,” and “maybe this isn’t the season when SKC turns it around?” All that becomes context for what comes next…even if, “in these unprecedented times,” no one knows what will come even two months from them. Still, some thoughts on that…

First, I’m starting to believe they might pull the damn thing off – maybe even without casualties. More to the point, so long as they keep venues at (very) reduced capacity (e.g., 25%, maybe 33%, and in masks and clusters, plus no drinking/eating), plus sufficiently-rigid protocols to preserve them, MLS could maybe even get away with moving players from bubble to bubble (also, via bubbles, aka, chartered flights only) to play out the rest of the…or, rather, a season. I understand how crazy that sounds, but I spend a lot of time thinking about COVID-safe bubbles and with enough thought and expense, plus damn-near total commitment among players, staffs, and the support systems around the teams, I think it’s possible to build functioning bubbles. Which is a long way of admitting that, the likelihood of continuing after the Magical World of Major League Soccer…sorry, Is Back, without infections relies on enough variables as to approach 0%...

…but I'm still guessing they'll try it. And I know I’ll watch it, if up to a point. I don’t know the threshold for infections, or even career-ending disability for a player, that would compel me to whimper enough and do my part to deny the monster life, but think a mass of continued, regular infections and more than one player losing a career would move me to turn it off and condemn the whole affair. Individual beliefs/comfort levels may vary, as they should.

FC Cincinnati 0-4 Columbus Crew SC: The Art of Massage

Sometimes you use it to break your opponent...

I can tell you the exact moment my spirit broke – and it came well after Columbus Crew SC’s two goals in stupid-quick succession in the first half. That…long, long moment came immediately before Columbus scored its third goal on the night in the form of a three-to-four-minute span of baby-seal-in-a-pod-of-orcas collective helplessness from FC Cincinnati as they strained…horrifically to pass the ball out of their defensive third without giving in to despair and/or the hapless long ball. This game ended the second Columbus understood they could give Cincinnati the collective vapors with a little aggressive man-marking in Cincy’s defensive third. It also ended 4-0 in Columbus’ favor.

In the bigger picture, with literally everything in the starting line-ups breathily hinting toward a Columbus win, what reason did anyone have beyond COVID-layoff-and-a-prayer to think that Cincinnati would win this game? Columbus hardly shined in 2019 (no playoffs, 10th in the East), but they had a better foundation on which to build and they added better-pedigreed pieces – e.g., Lucas Zelarayan, who, incidentally, came more than a little good last night. More than anything else, Columbus added pieces between 2019 and 20 to make a midfield that looks coherent. Artur with Darlington Nagbe behind Youness Mohktar, Zelarayan and Luis Diaz made sense on paper – and even more sense when you saw it work in practice, e.g., a 5-7 minute of terror by Diaz in Cincy’s left channel. The point is, Columbus has a well-constructed midfield scheme, a system where every player makes some sense where you see them, even if only conceptually.

Going the other way, every theory I saw on the midfield that FC Cincinnati threw (up) onto the field tonight just did not make sense. The 4-1-4-1 line-up MLS’s site shows for the line-up wasn’t miles off, but the scheme that worked…at least for as long as it did – and that’s 15 minutes, maybe 20 – looked more like a 4-3-3, and I say that admitting I had a hell of a time finding Haris Medunjanin out there. That said, even if you allow for a line-up that had Frankie Amaya, Siem de Jong and Medunjanin playing behind Yuya Kubo, Kekuta Manneh, and Adrien Regattin, that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense either. Call me crazy, but it’s like Cincinnati built a bad roster at some point and still haven’t recovered from that original sin…

To touch on Columbus one more time, while there’s some dispute as to whether it took 10 or 20 minutes, most observers seems to agree that both teams spent some time feeling the other out. After Zelarayan broke the spell by curling a free kick into Przemyslaw Tyton’s net, the story of this game was Columbus finding Cincy’s like a psychic masseuse and exploiting every breakdown. They pinned Cincinnati from that point forward, whether by holding possession and passing around and (way too often) through them, or through a man-marking high-press that visibly panicked a Cincy team that’s learning a new system, a new coach, and navigating a pandemic. Nagbe and Artur look like a league-elite deep midfield and, with Zelarayan, Diaz and Mohktar showing flashes of what they can do and players like Pedro Santos and Fanendo Adi waiting in the wings, Columbus’ ceiling keeps pushing up. That said, Vito Wormgoor, new addition for 2020 and heavy-metal icon (obviously), limped off in the first half and he seemed important to Columbus’ plans for 2020. Cincinnati couldn’t test that (can we rewrite the rules to that a team can get points for reaching the midfield stripe?), but who’s to say that Atlanta United FC and the New York Red Bulls won’t, because my guess is they will...

As for FC Cincinnati…Jesus Christ…