Wednesday, July 22, 2020

FC Cincinnati 2-0 New York Red Bulls: The Incredible Power of Being Under-Estimated

Stunningly, this is not an oft-used phrase...
When I first started writing about the Portland Timbers the second time around, there was a guy in the blogging community who named his site Possession with Purpose. Before going on, I want to make one thing very clear, he was a good guy (met him once or twice), I had no beef with his content, etc. etc. It was the name of his site that got to me, specifically, the implication of possession itself as an objective good. I found that unbelievably distracting, and with the emphasis on unbelievably. Possession is fine when, obviously…when it works.

Before I start obsessing about the New York Red Bulls, I want to make one more thing very clear, clearer even than the point above: FC Cincinnati deserved its sleepwalk-of-2-0 win over New York. More than that, I want to talk about what they’ve accomplished over…two short games (I mean, obviously, what happened against Columbus, 1) stands tall against the point I’m making and, 2) was extraordinarily agonizing to watch…like a bully beating his victim, I tell you.). The 2019 season saw (for those who need reminding, aka, no one) Cincinnati post the record for the most goals allowed in Major League Soccer history; they turned in the worst-ever goal differential, and by a wider margin. Cincy’s defense was fucking horrific last season - and yet they’re headed into the knockout rounds of MLS Is Back with just a -1 goal differential. Yes, both Atlanta United FC and the Red Bulls sucked far, far worse than anyone (or most people) expected and that’s part of it. I’ll get to that, trust me. Sticking with Cincinnati…

My wife came down mid-way through the second half and, things being as they were by that time, of course I drifted out of the game now and again (and again) talking to her, sometimes about completely different subjects. When I looked up, though, the same broad plot-lines stood out. First, Cincinnati rarely had possession, but they always looked sharper and, this is big, more certain in possession when they had it. I wouldn’t even call it counter-attacking soccer, either, and that’s as a good thing. Once Cincy established possession and got their heads up, they started moving forward, creating passing options and looking for them. By the time went up two goals (56th minute), and forgot all about the trap-door they’d stood on going into the game, I’d even say that got a little jiggy with it, e.g., throwing in the odd back-heel, stepping over the ball to dummy it to another player; they looked like a team having fun, and why not? I’m not arguing it was random, or that it came from nothing, so much as I’m praising its composure.

As for the second plot-point, the Red Bulls ended the game on 67.9% for possession; I’m also highly confident they pushed that well over 70% during the first half, and that closes the thought about possession and purpose: what did that get them? New York only appeared to wake up after they went down two goals - I had a chance in the 68th minute as their first good one - when they committed to the kind of speed and movement that had even one sweaty chance in hell of playing through the two banks of four Cincinnati dropped in front of them and dared them to play around. The box score tells me the Red Bulls had 19 shots, four of them on goal (and Przemyslaw Tyton was the equalof allfour), but the proper response is, did they really?

To skewer one prediction I laid down, the New York Red Bulls looked the polar opposite of a team who “knows what they’re doing” (see penultimate paragraph, point, then laugh). Turns out they’re more like Frank de Boer’s shambling Atlanta team than anyone expected. More to the point, New York got stumbled into the same narrative - specifically, that they had to attack Cincinnati because, of course they’d beat points out of them. And that’s the story of a down-fall. Or, rather, two of them…

The Red Bulls turned in the second worst half of soccer that I’ve so far endured during the Magical World of Major League Soccer ("MWoMLS"). The worst was Cincinnati’s second half against Columbus, a half so wretched that you wanted to run onto the field and shield their bodies before they suffered more. The Red Bulls first half matched Cincinnati’s nightmare for futility; the fact they were the aggressors was the only thing to raises it above. The aimlessness and incompetence, on the other hand, took the same psychic toll when you watched it. The only thing worse than the game-plan was the execution and the latter contained multitudes, passes both horribly-advised and consistently off-target, and nearly all of them low percentage, and with more ball watching than movement off the ball; even if (shitty) pass went to the player (it didn’t), he had nowhere to play except back to the guy who passed it to him or wide where Cincinnati could defend a cross. And I want to pause here to highlight the worst, the most maddening failing of New York’s first half…conceptualization, or what have you. The Red Bulls, collectively, didn’t do shit every time they played the ball wide; there was still (literally) one guy parked at the top of the box with two FC Cincy defenders in front of him; there was still a player on the opposite side of that wide player, still disconnected from the play, and there were still three or four players staked out on or around Cincy’s advance bank (the “midfield” in a two-banks-of-four low-block): it was so static, I swear to God that not one of those players would have moved if a fucking tsunami washed through the other side of the stadium. I’ve never seen a team do so little on the way to doing nothing.

This is where I pick up the title: the Red Bulls attacked FC Cincinnati and Cincinnati let them do it because that’s what the narrative suggested. The Red Bulls were "the better team," and that left them pushing for three points while Cincinnati “hung on for dear life.” The trouble is, the Red Bulls, as currently constructed, forces and feasts on mistakes by teams when they try to go forward; they rush the other team’s goal from there and, 3-5 passes later, they get a shot on goal. Tonight, Cincinnati showed what happens when they opposing team makes no effort to go forward. Trust me, it’s a tactic a know well, courtesy of a bunch of shitty teams who played the Timbers the same way throughout 2019. Presuming they were the better team lead New York to play away from their strength and, between Cincinnati’s defense improving and the Red Bulls just sort of sucking at breaking teams down, that proved fatal. End of story, game, set, match, and the kind of “upset” you get when you’re thinking about last season’s wars.

In case it’s not clear by now, I’m not about to start mapping FC Cincinnati’s path to the final and the coveted MWoMLS crown. (Don’t laugh; it could very well be the only crown to rest on anyone’s head by the end of 2020.) A peak at the (current) bracket reveals they’ll face either the Timbers or Los Angeles FC in the knockout round and, at best, it’ll be a slightly weaker Western Conference team from there (e.g., Minnesota United FC or Real Salt Lake, depending on what happens in 3…2…1…). They’ll have to cross that bridge when they get to it and, unless they’re playing Portland (in which case, fuck all ‘yall! [hug emoji]), I’m pulling for Cincinnati. I just doubt their chances. Which still feels rational.

Those paying attention at home might have noticed that I haven’t mentioned either of Cincinnati's goals to this point, so, yeah. Look, the cross on the first goal not only fell short, it required Amro Tarek to fuck up twice; full credit to Yuya Kubo for scoring it, but Tarek did hand it to him. Florian Valot scored the second (own) goal, of course, and credit Haris Medunjanin for playing what might have been an Olimpico, and that’s all she wrote…

...but, that misses the entire goddamn point, and this is something for any and all FC Cincinnati fans to hang their hat on, along with a few very loud bells and whistles: they are no longer the worst team in MLS, full-stop. At the very least, they can point to both Atlanta and the Red Bulls and say, “yeah, well, what about those guys?” The point is, enjoy it, especially any Cincy fan who suffered through 2019, because you’ve earned it, dammit.

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