MLS Weakly, 04 03 2021: The Final Preseason Round-Up, with a Dash of Futures

I'm not rubbing my nipples, you are.

Against earlier promises, I’ve decided to take another run at organizing some general thoughts about the 2021 Major League Soccer regular season. Because The Mothership didn’t hire enough interns (or wake him/her up or something), the stand-alone “Preseason Schedule and Results” gets updated without due religiosity, this whole thing also doubles as a sleuthing mission for all the preseason results I can find. If they won’t do the work, etc.

As with the…oh, past three to five seasons, I’ll be leaning into trends in the results as the clearest instrument for picking up where the winds are blowing around MLS. I think I’ve got a plan for how to do that, if loosely, but that whole process starts with expectations of what should happen when Team A meets Team Z, say, in Team Z’s hometown. The end result won’t quite be “power rankings” - because fine-tune ranking in this league means nothing in any scheme, grand or otherwise - but to, again, create a broad set of assumptions of how the first two weeks of regular season games look likeliest to shake out. Oh, and expectations aren’t predictions. I don’t do predictions. I do, however, like it when a team surprises me…c’mon, FC Cincinnati. Do me like that…

One final preliminary, I have not yet organized any team’s preseason results into a formal preseason record - mostly because I thought someone would do it for me, but, no, of course they didn’t - and that’s going to be the main work of this post. (I’m out-of-pocket next weekend, so this is my last shot at this.) Once I get each team’s record to date fleshed out, I’ll organize all the teams in MLS into…let’s go with three categories: good, middling, and mystery meat. The latter means they could go just about any way (but with down being the more likely); also, I nixed “bad” as a category and on the grounds that I’ll let the season do the talking on that.

And, yeah, guess that’s the preamble. Once I put every team in the pretty little boxes I prepared for them, I’ll close out the post with a discussion of the first two weeks of games for the 2021 regular season.

Ready? Set? Go!

The Good
Atlanta United FC(a soft 4-0-0(?), and it looks like they’re done)
Atlanta did a tour de USL for their preseason and, between the actual recorded scores on The Mothership and half-glimpsedrumors on Dirty Soccer South, it looks like they swept all four games (against South Georgia’s Tormenta FC, the Charleston Battery, Chattanooga FC and Birmingham Legion). Near as I can tell, they scored 14 and might have given up just one goal - about what one would expect from a team in the American top-flight with Rocky-like ambition to rise back to the top. Fans should have a better idea where they are against real opposition by around 7 p.m. Tuesday (Pacific Time).
Overall: I expect Atlanta to compete in the East, and in general, in 2021.

Columbus Crew SC(0-4-0, and it’s the CCL against Real Esteli (4/8) next)
Since no one knocks Columbus at this point, losing all four preseason games - a couple, thanks to a couple lopsided scores, leading to a combined 4 gf, 13 ga - forces a default to “preseason means nothing.” To be fair (and, if you’ve ever watched Letterkenny, you hear the sound I’m making), those lopsided losses came against “real teams,” e.g., Minnesota and Toronto. Further, they are the champs (dammit) and they’ve added a couple fresh wrinkles to a formula that brought home said championship. And yet, noted…
Overall: They still have to rank among the favorites to repeat, so anything short of close to that will look like a fail. Given the above, a slow start wouldn’t throw me too much…

FC Dallas(4-0-0, but v USL-heavy opposition; they’ve got Austin (4/7) and Houston (4/10) ahead)
If nothing else, Dallas wins the preseason for transparency - i.e., it’s easy to find their results…such as they are. Credit where it’s due, Dallas has scored a total of 12 goals over four games and the only goals they’ve allowed came via penalty kicks (also, who does overtime in preseason?).
Overall: I’m a combination of high (as a sporting neutral) and worried (as a Timbers fan) about Dallas this season. I’m somewhat confident they’ll be hell to score against, so, if they get their own scoring on line…look out.

Los Angeles FC(0-1-0; and with just a return leg against the same team planned?)
LAFC drew New England 2-2 in their only preseason match so far and LAFC’s site gives a respectable write-up on that. Expectations remain big for this team…and I’m really trying to talk myself into them. When everyone says they’re contenders, but you don’t know enough…
Overall: They’ll compete, they’ll make the playoffs, they should even go deep, but I haven’t seen them do anything that signals they’ve moved the stuff they’ve tripped over in the past.

Minnesota United FC(3-0-0; and with just one closed-door scrimmage against Orlando to go)
I’m not sure how Charleston survived its preseason with any confidence left because Minnesota freakin’ slaughtered them. After that, they tore through Ohio (5-2 over Columbus, 3-1 over Cincinnati). For all that they’re aging in some spots (e.g., Ozzie Alonso) and that they’ve coughed up a unicorn for no discernable reason (Kevin Molino), I see the Loons as a well-built team that should do well.
Overall: I’d be stunned if they don’t make the playoffs, but less stunned if they make the semifinals.

New England Revolution(1-1-1; I guess Bruce still likes LA…)
Well, they stomped the messy LA club (Galaxy), and punched even with the big one (LAFC); all that’s left to the Revolution’s preseason is one more game against LAFC. Again, they returned a good squad and added some promising, appropriate pieces, which leaves only the question of how they’ll fit in open. The question is whether the Revs can take the next step.
Overall: I expect them to be in the mix at the top of the East…which suddenly seems tighter as I’m typing this out…

Orlando City SC (3-1-1, and why can’t I find the result against Cincy? They’ve got Miami left for public consumption)
The Lions have Philly’s number if nothing else, but Orlando has done well to carry over last season’s moxie to the 2021 preseason. They drew a surprisingly capable Chicago squad 2-2 in their latest, all of which taken together makes you think Orlando is ready to roll.
Overall: I’ve got four teams listed as “good” in the East so far and I’m not even done yet. Still, I expect Orlando will play at the top end of the mix.

Portland Timbers(2(?)-2-1(?); and with the CCL against Marathon on Tuesday to look forward to)
Look, I don’t know how to read mid-March, 45-minute scrimmages into the record, but that’s what I came up with for a record. As for preseason, Portland punched even with a pair of Western Conference heavies (Seattle and SKC), which is good, even if the circumstances ain’t exactly linear. Of them all, the SKC - a high-scoring draw - looks like the worrisome piece.
Overall: I see the 2021 Timbers as a very good team that’s living on borrowed time…which might weigh them down enough to render them simply good. Keep your own counsel, but I will not stop worrying about this till they give me reason not to.

Seattle Sounders(0-0-1, near as I can tell, but they have a near-future of pounding on minnows)
Seattle has only had one recorded preseason game - the 1-1 draw against Portland (and enjoy these meager takeaways) - but they represent the opposite case to some teams below, e.g., Chicago and DC, i.e., Seattle has never been bad, so why assume they will be. That goes double with a summer window in play.
Overall: That said, the hole left by Jordan Morris does bear watching. That and the fact they shed a couple key pieces in the off-season (see Miami, where Joevin Jones and Kelvin Leerdam landed, plus Gustav Svensson). Look, nobody would enjoy (and, curiously, celebrate) seeing Seattle suffer quite like me, but counting them out is like assuming a serial killer is dead just because you stabbed him (or her).

Sporting Kansas City(2-1-1, and that’s all there is)
It’s worth noting they’re 1-1-1 against MLS competition and with thin margins all around - e.g., they won and lost their preseason games to date by just one goal every time (while running over Phoenix Rising 4-0). I supposed the caveat here would be that Portland is the only “strong” team they played. Then again, SKC was good last year and they seemed to have plugged some weaknesses. As such, the long-term looks all right.
Overall: Whoops. See above…

The Middling
Chicago Fire FC(2-1-1; they’ve got Madison Forward (4/7) and Vancouver Whitecaps (4/10) left)
All those results came against MLS opposition, which is about as clear as a signal gets in preseason. That said, and due to Chicago’s…general history - i.e., they are masters of disappointment - I’m not overly inclined to project that pace (7 points from 10) across the season. Will the decision to (mostly) stand-pat on last season’s roster hold up?
Overall: While I’m very much on wait and see with Chicago, I’ll expect great things after they’ve condition me to do so.

Colorado Rapids(call it…3-1-0, and with the LA Galaxy (4/7) and Phoenix Rising (4/10) ahead)
The Rapids played a couple games in mid-March that I combined instead of counting, but they did squeak past SKC (respectable) and New Mexico United (meh). And then RSL rolled into the Tucson Cup and rocked ‘em 0-3. The Rapids have a couple things going for them - continuity and they can actually play - but I can’t shake the sense that the limit stops well short of the sky.
Overall: Probably playoff competitive and rarely an easy out but I’m certainly not expecting anything.

DC United(1-2-1, just RBNY (4/10) ahead)
After a notably shaky start against USL opposition, DC dropped two straight against MLS teams - Philadelphia, then NYCFC - if by narrow margins. Then again, that detail makes their 1-1 draw against Greenville United FC look…a certain way. I can’t think of many clubs who needed…something after another mediocre season, but they settled on a new head coach and I guess that’s enough something for now?
Overall: They’re a little like Chicago, in that I’ve got used to them being bad. As such, it’ll take some convincing for me to rate them again.

Los Angeles Galaxy(2-2-0; with Colorado (4/7) and RSL (4/10) ahead)
The Galaxy split results with New England (1-1-0), but not goal differential (2 gf, 4 ga). Also, they have a thing for photogalleries, which give more than their two-sentence “recaps.” The Galaxy is one of those teams I haven’t seen do enough to convince me they’ll pull out of their post-Zlatan slump.
Overall: I’m starting to wonder if they even have an operating front office…expectations are other than high.

Inter Miami CF(0-1-0, and God knows what else)
So…it looks like Miami canceled most of its preseason games "out of an abundance of caution for the health and safety of players and staff," a choice that doesn’t give me much to work with for a club I already know, like, half-a-dick about. As much as I like about the players they poached off of Seattle (Kelvin Leerdam and Joevin Jones), I didn’t see them do anything in the off-season that signaled a turn-around outside of signing Gregore.
Overall: This could be my primary candidate for giving FC Cincy a dead body to stand on. At long last.

Nashville SC(2-0-0, but against lower division teams, plus a lot of canceled games)
Looks like another team struggled with health ‘n’ safety protocols. They won a couple games, but see above. I don’t have a lot of data on Nashville, so they ended up in the most neutral, un-hyped place I can park them. My guess is next season will look like the last one: hard to beat, but equally hard to lose to.
Overall: They’re here because I don’t see greatness, but dour competence.

Red Bull New York(0-1-0, and I don’t know that it’ll ever get beyond that)
They had one game canceled against Nashville, then another canceled against Inter Miami, which just leaves a loss to a tiny team to fill in the preseason sample. Few teams have fallen so far from a recent prime and it’s hard enough to see them regaining that form absent someone (at this point, a player) or something (e.g., a run of form) that says they’ve recaptured the old magic - or even some kind of new magic.
Overall: I miss the glory days enough that I could be pegging them lower than they should go, but…I’m also not seeing a case for optimism.

Real Salt Lake(1-0-0, and with Phoenix Rising (4/7) and the Galaxy (4/10) ahead of them)
If I had more games to work with, seeing them run over Colorado 3-0 might have moved me to knock RSL as high as “mystery meat,” but that’s an impressive start for a troubled team regardless. Had they added flash beyond the long-pending arrival of Bobby Wood, maybe I could see some path to long-term (as in season-long) success, but, absent that…
Overall: I think they’ll struggle for another season at least. The question is, how hard?

Vancouver Whitecaps(left their preseason late for good reason, but upcoming: Real Monarch (4/6), Chicago (4/10), and Indy Eleven (uh…4/10)
I’ll be honest. I’m still working off last season. And the season before that. And, if I’m not mistaken, the season before that. Now add having to start the season on the road.
Overall: Given my overall thoughts about the Western Conference (scary), I think it’ll take something special to get Vancouver even into the playoff mix. Too many teams are too far ahead of them.

Mystery Meat
Austin FC(2-1-0, so far; they’ve got Dallas (4/7) and San Antonio FC (4/10) left)
They dropped pretty lopsided losses a couple lower-division teams (OKC Energy and Louisville City) before “mistakes” (apparently) undid them against Houston. New DP Tomas Pochettino scored a free-kick, which is nice, and I think they built a decent roster, but that still leaves a tall stack of unknowns.
Overall: I wouldn’t be surprised to see them lingering around the playoff line by season’s end, but, again, I’m expecting a war in the West in 2021.

FC Cincinnati(1-2-0 “in matches where the final score was revealed”; remaining Louisville (again) and the Pittsburgh Riverhounds)
If the third-hand chatter is to be believed, Minnesota benefitted from some generous calls on its way to a 3-1 win yesterday. That gets Cincinnati to my optimistic scenario for the preseason - i.e., three points of nine, but from a fairly challenging preseason schedule. Getting that one win (2-1 over Chicago) was the big one in my mind, now there’s nothing left but to play out the schedule.
Overall: Squeaking into the playoffs at the high-end, avoiding last place at the low-end. At this point, the bar’s low enough that I’ll cheer if they show up to games with their shirts and shorts on right.

Houston Dynamo(4-0-0, mostly against soft opposition; they’ve got OKC Energy (4/6) and FC Dallas (4/10) ahead)
As noted above Austin FC gave them a run, so it’s a positive that Houston persevered and won one against a(n arriviste) equal; the rest of their wins came against Austin Bold, FC Tulsa and Louisville City. Against that, the few people I read like Houston’s rebuild, and that’s why they’re mystery meat (anything can happen) instead of middling (which means I expect nothing major in any direction).
Overall: Whoops. See above. Honestly, I expect them to hang with Austin.

CF Montreal(0-0-0; va te faire foutre to the preseason)
Getting fit on the down-low, deepening the mystery…
Overall: I still think Montreal is going through some proverbial shit and, as such, I’m not terribly optimistic about their chances in 2021.

New York City FC(3-1-0, with one more game TBD)
It feels odd slotting a team this strong among the mystery teams, but they’re also in a particularly puzzling transition - e.g., you’ve got Maxi Moralez aging out on the one hand, against God knows who comes in on the other hand. It’s in that context that the strength of their preseason - they beat Columbus (but who hasn’t?) and Orlando and, less impressively DC before they’re even whole - that makes me think they could join the “Good” pack by halfway through the season.
Overall: It’s questions about onboarding new players that keeps them down here, but they’re likely the best of this bunch.

Philadelphia Union(1-3-0; and just the CCL against Saprissa on Wednesday ahead)
If Philly had a better preseason, I wouldn’t have buried them down here, but that feels like a carry-over from the way they wilted in the 2020 post-season. They’ve kept the games close so far, so credit to the defense, but they’ve also scored only three goals in four games. If there’s a silver lining in all that, two of those came from Anthony Fontana, a player I read they’re leaning on, in a clean sweep win over DC.
Overall: I don’t know why it “stopped working,” but sometimes a team gets in its own way.

San Jose Earthquakes, who had no preseason
Weird choice, but you do you, San Jose.
Overall: Personally, I’d be stunned if they don’t improve, but until they do…

Toronto FC(1-0-0, and with nothing but Leon in the CCL on Wednesday ahead)
Either Columbus did ‘em a solid as a send-off to their CCL tie against Mexico’s Leon by letting them win 4-2, or Toronto might still have enough things figured out to compete across a couple competitions. But I've already told you to not trust anything I write about TFC.
Overall: I think I’m mostly waiting to see what happens when Michael Bradley craps all the way out. On the other hand, they have a sound system - even if they’ve got another guy (Chris Armas) running it - and that should carry them through another season.

Right, now, with all that in one place or another, let’s look at the first two weeks of the MLS season and flag some broad themes, maybe name some marquee match-ups. Also, after giving it some thought, I’ve decided against listing every game and riffing off that, but here’s a link to the schedule. Finally, because the main point is to talk about early expectations over the first two weeks of the season, the best format I could come up with was to talk about tough and favorable starts for all involved. Here goes, starting with…

Tough Starts
Seattle, v MIN, @ LAFC (Then again, Seattle often drops points early, so…)
Montreal, v TFC, @ NSH (Anything above zero points from those two will be notable)
Cincinnati, @ NSH, @NYC (Fuck. And see above)
DC, v NYC, @ NE (I’d call one point the ceiling, zero the expectation)
Orlando, v ATL, @ SKC (Now, THESE are interesting games; Orlando say a lot in two weeks)
Chicago, v NE, @ ATL (see Orlando, expect DC, Montreal, and Cincy)
Vancouver, v POR, @ TFC (a pair of draws seems likely as it is insufferable, but less than that…)

As you can see, “tough start” means different things to different teams, but, at the same time, it seems wise to flag wins in any of the above games - big ones, especially. They could signal all kinds of things - e.g., weaknesses in the team they beat, a sign of brighter teams for the team that beat expectation, etc. And the same goes for the group below, only from a Bizarro perspective (i.e., reverse it…you get it).

Favorable Starts
New York City FC, @ DC, v CIN (With respect to a team I love, anything less than four points…)
New England, @ CHI, v DC (six points would be a statement, four a good haul, three adequate.)
Dallas, v COL, @ SJ (not easy, but a decent opening to start strong…and say something)
Colorado, @ FCD, v AUS (no, it’s not perfect, but even four points would lead strong)
Nashville, v CIN, v MTL (I’m guessing most odds-makers would expect 6 points from that)
Columbus, v PHI and a bye (A LOT depends on the CCL results/knock-ons, but that bye week…)
Portland, @ VAN (in Salt Lake), v HOU (call it an opportunity to start perfect….with CCL in the way)

Again, all of that follows from what I’d expect to happen given what I know about the teams involved. That’s it. The good stuff only starts happening after results from Week 1 and 2 force me to re-think my assumptions, expectations, biases and various pathologies. And, honestly, I can’t wait to see what happens. I’m more keyed up about the coming season than I have been for the past few to several. It could be something simple as getting excited to see something that even looks normal and follows a proper goddamn routine. The bar ain’t as high as it used to be, basically…

Okay, time to close up with what I see as the three marquee match-ups of the first two weeks of the 2021 MLS regular season.

Week 1
Orlando City SC v Atlanta United FC
Columbus Crew SC v Philadelphia Union
Seattle Sounders v Minnesota United FC

Because they all just seem long-term relevant.

Week 2
Los Angeles FC v Seattle Sounders
San Jose Earthquakes v FC Dallas
Los Angeles Galaxy v Red Bull New York

The first is just an important, early pissing match between two of the bigs in the West, but the other two games feel more big-picture important in terms of establishing who falls where on the outer reaches of competitiveness. It doesn’t matter whether a team is kicking up or down; it’s what they’re kicking toward.

And, fin. From here on out, posts on this site will only talk about something that’s actually happened and, my DEAR GOD, I can’t wait for that. Long term, I plan on covering all the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati games that I can and I hope my plan for an MLS Weekly holds up. Till…shit, Tuesday!