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| A comment on the methodology |
The bastards squeezed me again (three days, Garber?!), so this Week 16 Major League Soccer Weakly will, 1) go up earlier than I like, and 2) I’ll have to do (yet another) combined Week 17 & 18 Weakly after Sunday’s games wrap up.
In other news…yeah, auditioning a new format. It uses last week’s Super Standings post as a point of (very loose) point of reference, but, due to time constraints, I’ll be keeping the format simple, bordering on stupid, yet with some hope it’ll offer some good information - particularly as one week progresses to the next and this trend or that either gets confirmed or crumbles - of which this week has some solid candidates. I think that’s all the explanation it needs, so, moving on…
I didn’t give every match the Silver Service Review (e.g., sitting through the MLS-in-15 video plus diving into the stats) due to, again, time restraints. Happily, every game of some interest played before midnight Saturday, which allowed for some borrowed time on the other side, and I sat through the full 90 of both teams I cover, the Portland Timbers (who died against the Los Angeles Galaxy) and FC Cincinnati (who continued a distressing streak of futility against half of DC United). For the record, those games are (and a link to the Match Center thing is embedded in each score):
Los Angeles FC 2-2 Minnesota United FC
New York City FC 4-1 Columbus Crew SC
Orlando City SC 3-2 Atlanta United FC
Seattle Sounders 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Red Bull New York 2-3 New England Revolution
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 FC Dallas
I’ll put what I saw from those Silver Service Reviews into the “This Week” section of each entry below - which entries include every team in the league - but I based everything else on patterns - most of which seem to be holding up nicely, thanks. The second part of each is titled “Trends/Questions,” which is where I’ll note either theories or questions about each team based on the same stuff that informed the Super Standings - e.g., form, strength of schedule, and meaningful trends (e.g., said team struggles to score (e.g., FC Cincinnati), or struggles to avoid avalanches (e.g., the Portland Timbers; the fact they fit those categories so well is my only solace after a weekend of shit spectator sports viewing). With that, here are some notes and theories about where all the teams in MLS are after Week 16, and where they might go from there.
Los Angeles FC
This Week: Week 16 saw LAFC play a very typical game against Minnesota - e.g., they created nearly triple the chances, only to squander them; to name names, Jose Cifuentes owes the team a beer for missing a late sitter. All in all, it falls into the Gold ‘n’ Black’s defining trait of excelling to futility.
Trends/Questions: I saw they signed a Colombian forward named Cristian Arango this morning, and we’ll see what that does. Doubt all you want (doubt even Carlos Vela, but…why?), they defend well enough - 19 goals against, and they have yet to give up more than two goals in one game, and they still create enough pretty damn good chances, which means they keep their potential to take off.
Week 17/18: v SKC, @ SJ...tricky and trickier.
Minnesota United FC
This Week: Reports from Adrian Heath’s bunched undies notwithstanding (something about a late PK for Vancouver), Minnesota had an…eh week - e.g., two road games, two points of six, and so on. I skipped the Vancouver draw (but…noted), but, per the above, Minnesota was a little fortunate to take points out of LA; in a phrase, they drew on a shot and a flail. In their defense, they posted a decent xG against LAFC; honestly, nothing about that game looked awful, but…still lucky.
Trends/Questions: Hey…Vancouver finally broke the Loons 2021 Cascadia winning streak, something they’d had going since Week 1 against Seattle. Point of curiosity: Minnesota have six wins in 2021, all of which came against either Cascadia teams or teams from Texas. It’s possible, in other words, that match-ups will decide their fate - e.g., they have the Timbers’ number, while Colorado has theirs.
Week 17/18: v HOU…which they have to win, yeah?
New York City FC
This Week: NYC straight up ran over Columbus; based on what I saw, 5-0 was the “real” score (based on probability, maybe even aesthetics). In other news, Thiago Andrade looked pretty damn good; they all did. Moreover…
Trends/Questions: This team is rolling. They reside quite comfortably among the league’s better teams in goals against and the scoring has been free, free, free over the past two games. More ominously, they’re not flattening minnows: they went 8-to-1 goals against Orlando and Columbus - and the latter is still one goal against better than them after losing 1-3 at NYCFC.
Week 17/18: @ CHI, @ TFC…they lost to Montreal on the road not so long ago, so…
Columbus Crew SC
This Week: As noted above, Columbus was just flat last week - the defensive rotations sucked and they left guys open. That ain’t like ‘em - they hadn’t allowed two goals in any game prior - struggles with scoring goals still weigh them down…and quite a bit. They’re 12 points behind East-leading New England.
Trends/Questions: I caught wind Caleb Porter mocking the doubters, but, as a Timbers fan, that’s old hat for me; the man talks, even when he doesn’t back it up. The fact remains that the MLS champs have dropped points all over, they have two wins in their last eight, and against a middling schedule. They have things to get right, but they’re lucky they had a foundation under it…well, until New York invited ‘em over to kick the shit out of ‘em.
Week 17/18: v DC, v ATL…ask, and the gods will provide a chance to put up or shut up. Hallelujah.
Orlando City SC
This Week: Credit to them, Orlando pushed back, and with enough weight, to overcome an opening and go-head goal by Atlanta - good ones too. They forced saves out of Alec Cann (two in a row, sometimes) throughout, but the air of inevitability was thick.
Trends/Questions: I probably question them more often than I ought, because they win most of the ones they should and don’t drop all that many…except to Red Bull, a riddle/brand they can't solve.
Week 17/18: v MIA, @ CIN…based on past performance(s; looking at FC Cincy in sum), they could go into Week 18 smelling like a rose.
Atlanta United FC
This Week: The box score tells me the video flattered Atlanta, but they pulled enough quality attacking moves to see why they stabilized and how they might go places.
Trends/Questions: There’s also no getting around just two wins in 16 games - and they haven’t seen one in 11 games. Opposition and circumstances have hurt ‘em, no question, but it’s mostly a scoring problem. It wouldn’t surprise me if they put together a run, but that has to come from something other than possibility and belief and some point.
Week 17/18: @ MTL, @ CLB…despite the challenges, I’m watching for three points. If not…
Los Angeles Galaxy
This Week: I didn’t flag this in my extended notes on their painful (depends on where you live) 4-1 trouncing of the Timbers, but the Galaxy might have looked more terrifying after they scored four than they did to that point. This should improve how people see them, with the state of Portland’s reputation duly noted. Not to take anything away - again, they had several opportunities to run up the score - but Portland handed them at least two of those goals.
Trends/Questions: Between their recent record - i.e, let’s go back…seven games, WLWLDLW - and the Timbers’ knack for falling all the way apart on a bad day, it’s hard to read this game into a narrative. What I can say is that the Galaxy has a decent record of getting points wherever they show up. Nine wins in 16 games doesn’t happen by accident.
Week 17/18: v RSL, v VAN…six points possible…that is all…
Portland Timbers
This Week: Pretty goddamn bad, thanks for asking. Most of this loss came from absurdist defensive collapses - at least three of ‘em, all quite shocking - all of which put me in an existential frame of mind in my extended notes.
Trends/Questions: The Timbers have one more loss than they do wins (five versus four) over the past 10 games, a period that seethes with dark portents - e.g., three three-goal losses, dumb points dropped (away to Houston and home against Minnesota), a problem with road games, etc.
Week 17/18: v SJ, v RSL…anything less than six, I’m punching the panic button till it starts runnning around figuring out what to do next.
Seattle Sounders
This Week: Had Seattle’s three first-half chances fallen to another player besides Reed Baker-Whiting (soap opera name!), maybe Seattle wins this; then again, vague recollections of Raul Ruidiaz pissing away chances says some did. Credit to J. T. Marcinowski where it’s due, Seattle didn’t look so great - and with a decently-experienced roster. No excuses….
Trends/Questions: Seattle has three wins in their last eight, none of them all that impressive (v RSL, v HOU, @ ATX), and they have as many losses besides, few of them glorious. Welcome to the doldrums, Seattle, but I expect you’ll get out of it….now, prove me wrong.
Week 17/18: v FCD…just the one. And if that’s not all three points…things might get interesting.
San Jose Earthquakes
This Week: Hats off to San Jose, they kept a weakened Seattle from lighting it up; moreover, Cristian Espinoza put away the one they had to. On a bad note, Javier Eduardo Lopez, aka, Chofis, has looked short of his billing every time I’ve watched him.
Trends/Questions: Slow - i.e., it’s mostly turning a strong of losses into a string of draws - including three in tough venues (e.g., @ COL, @ MIN, @ SKC) - but, with a win at an even tougher venue, it looks promising. Fact is, they’re only four points behind RSL, the last team over the playoff line in the West. (And, for those following along, two points behind Portland).
Week 17/18: @ POR, v LAFC…I expect a pair of draws; anything more counts as a singal.
Red Bull New York
This Week: On a pure numbers level (i.e., the box score), it didn’t look so bad, but the Revs rolled up their press, they were lucky to get a second goal (scored by Fabio, it was pressure-slop), and the Revs’ Adam Buksa might have got as many chances as Red Bull did. (Fact-check: No, he did not.) They gave up bad goals, New England spread ‘em apart, let the credit fall where you will, etc.
Trends/Questions: I don’t know why I always think this team is better than it is, but the evidence doesn’t support it. The road win over Orlando aside - a team they seem to match up well with, btw - it’s all draws and losses for New Jersey’s finest over their last seven. Chin-ups on the playoff line looks like their future, in contrast with…that is, the next team, not the next sentence.
Week 17/18: v CIN, @ CHI…watching this one closely. Should be telling.
New England Revolution
This Week: Against the larger record, how much does it matter which team made the other look better or worse, and vice versa? Sure it came late, but Buksa’s goal had enough company to make the win feel like an honest shift.
Trends/Questions: Here’s a fun story: the Revolution have five wins plus four more on either side of a puzzling three-game stumble (@ FCD, @ CLB, v TFC). Moreover, they’re bagging those in too many places to make it look like luck. The team to beat for now.
Week 17/18: v NSH, v PHI…a massive couple “weeks,” honestly. Watch what they get outta this.
FC Cincinnati
This Week: In a word, painful. As elaborated here. Very painful.
Trends/Questions: The road hasn’t been all even and down hill, but Cincy still have zero wins over their last six games. Again, that’s six. And they had nearly 40 minutes with an extra player(s). Given all that, how much can any kind of “almost” matter. There is no try. Only do.
Week 17/18: @ RBNY, v ORL…the first one’s on the road, so they have a chance. Composure…
DC United
This Week: A full 90 minutes with the lower end of their roster didn’t change much for me - and that’s despite a healthy soccer-man-crush on Kevin Paredes. Going the other way, they looked plenty sturdy and equally active.
Trends/Questions: Here’s DC’s record over their first eight games: WLLLWLLW. Now, their second eight games: WDLWLDWD. The biggest improvement came with turning losses into draws (a useful form of theft), but the bigger point is, they’re getting points where they should, and dropping them where you’d expect. Another team echo-locating toward the meat of the playoff line.
Week 17/18: @ CLB, v MTL…three points would uphold the pattern, so look for more or less.
Inter Miami CF
This Week: Don’t look now, but Miami’s on a little streak: first they draw Philly at home, then they beat Montreal? Their home record still blows (3-8-3), but most teams in the East would take those two results in a heartbeat.
Trends/Questions: In case it’s not clear, I didn’t even glance at this game. This will happen more often for the rest of the post…
Week 17/18: @ ORL, v NSH…not good…very bad. I’d call one point impressive, two points a triumph, and every point above that worth nothing and/or a miracle.
Club de Foot Montreal
This Week: I mean, you lost to Montreal. No matter how it happened (again, didn’t see it), and best case, it’s a bad day at the office. Going the other way, if this tracks a pattern…
Trends/Questions: If three straight losses on the road counts, then yes. The first two made perfect sense - e.g., @ NYC and @ NE - but dropping points to Miami…well, that crosses a line.
Week 17/18: v ATL, @ DC…they’re not great anywhere, but they’ve played fewer at home. And even fewer at “home” home, i.e., Montreal. I’d call four points over the next two good.
Houston Dynamo FC
This Week: A goal-less draw between two nowhere teams isn’t news anywhere, ever. Which is why don’t feel bad about not watching or reading even damn thing about this one.
Trends/Questions: Fun fact: Houston posted seven draws over their last eight games (related, their last win came in Week 7 while hosting Vancouver). In other news, they’ve been on the road in six of their last 10 games, and in four games out of their last six. And all those draws…
Week 17/18: @ ATX, @ MIN…wonder what Houston will be like on the back nine…especially with that undefeated home record.
Real Salt Lake
This Week: In general, see above. In terms of specifics….eh.
Trends/Questions: They’re thin on wins over their past 10 games - just three with two coming against Vancouver, who they can’t play every week. And yet they’re higher in the standings than Portland. If that don’t knock the stuff outta ya, and make you piss out the vinegar. In their defense, they’ve shown some fight.
Week 17/18: @ LAG, @ POR…a tough run for any team. Anything north of three points is worth noting.
Sporting Kansas City
This Week: And…they stumbled. SKC never looked the better team - an argument backed up by the numbers - and Dallas never had to work too hard for a good look. Hardly what West’s second-place team should get from a team with (literally) half of the points.
Trends/Questions: Just to note it, SKC has dropped weird points at home lately - e.g., draws against Austin and San Jose, plus this loss against Dallas, of all teams. The 5-1-3 home record says they’re fine…but call the drop off against dummies a possible comment on complacency.
Week 17/18: @ LAFC, @ COL…unenviable for most, but SKC is 4-3-0 on the road. I expect three points or more, but wouldn’t panic about fewer…unless the trend continues.
FC Dallas
This Week: Well, shit, they slayed another giant. More significantly, Dallas played one of the West’s best both well (defense) and more efficiently; they won the game for a reason, but two good goals hardly hurt.
Trends/Questions: They have two good wins in a row - a home thwomping of the Galaxy, followed by a road win over SKC - but they still have a lot left to overcome. And yet, they’re still just four points behind a playoff team (RSL) and six points behind 5th place (LAFC)
Week 17/18: @ SEA, v ATX…anything north of four points is worth noting.
Austin FC
This Week: It’s hard to get excited about much around Austin lately - they haven’t beat anyone except Portland since Week 3 (to their credit, but how!) - and I feel like one can safely ignore any team that takes just seven points from 36 on offer. Even if they got a new forward…
Trends/Questions: There aren’t any really, other than losing three straight at home after that Portland win, even if to your better teams (e.g., LAFC, Seattle and Colorado), and even if by close margins.
Week 17/18: v HOU, @ FCD…all Texas rivalries, and all a chance to show what they’ve got.
Colorado Rapids
This Week: See above - I mean, of course they beat Austin - but also below.
Trends/Questions: I think most people have some vague sense that the Rapids are doing all right, but check this out: they’re 5-1-2 at home and 3-3-1 away. And not against a cush schedule. Moreover, just five teams beat them on goals against, and they’ve scored more than 10 teams in the East and 8 teams in the West. The definition of better-than-average.
Week 17/18: v SKC…a classic win-win, honestly; no one will notice if they lose, but everyone will notice if they win.
Vancouver Whitecaps
This Week: I’d care more about Adrian Heath’s moaning about Vancouver’s late penalty if the result didn’t match a fairly broad pattern. Of which…
Trends/Questions: Here are the ‘Caps last 10 results: LLLDDLWDDD. They’ve played tough places and teams since the draws started coming - e.g., @ Seattle and LAFC, but also versus Minnesota and the Galaxy, who they beat. All four of those came in the last seven games, a tough stretch for any team in MLS, and it’s mostly draws and a freak (probably?) blowout home/road loss to RSL. Another team to watch in the West…especially if yours is tripping and dancing on the trapdoor.
Week 17/18: v LAG…would you look at that. Another chance to torment the Galaxy…
Philadelphia Union
This Week: Their only game saw them draw Chicago on the road. I don’t know the particulars…but I also think the particulars don’t matter so much against the backdrop.
Trends/Questions: I’ll save the real question for Chicago’s entry, but here are some recent facts about Philly: they have three home wins against (reasonably?) decent teams (POR, CLB, and DC), but they also have five draws and two losses against teams last year’s Supporters’ Shield winner should brush aside without panting. And yet they aren’t.
Week 17/18: v TFC, @ NE…could go anywhere, but I’m watching for zero points or six.
Chicago Fire FC
This Week: A 2-2 draw looks good on paper for Chicago, but it fails to resolve the key question: is Chicago getting better, or is Philly getting worse?
Trends/Questions: They’re 2-5-3 in their last 10 games, and with the Ws anchored firmly in the middle and, no matter how impressive those look (e.g., 3-0 over Atlanta and 3-1 over Orlando, both at home), the Fire still have just two points from the last 12 available.
Week 17/18: v NYC, v RBNY…at least they’re home games? (Also, holy shit. Anything above one point…)
Toronto FC
This Week: Nashville’s no great shakes on the road (0-1-4; also, so few?), but they’re a solid team, and a respectable result fits a decent pattern.
Trends/Questions: Toronto hasn’t lost in five games. Sure, it’s just two wins, but check out who they played: @ NE, v ORL, v RBNY, @ CHI, v NSH. That’s both gaining and taking points, and pretty damn impressive for a team that gave away everything at the start of the season.
Week 17/18: @ PHI, v NYC…a helluva test. If they pass, every middling team in the East better start boning up on video.
Nashville SC
This Week: I don’t know how it happened, but, no team with its legs decently under them (see below) wants to be the next chapter in a revival story.
Trends/Questions: Nashville hasn’t lost in eight games, and they have as many wins as draws over that period. For a team with eleven games at home, and just four on the road, the gazillion dollar question how well do they travel.
Week 17/18: @ NE, @ MIA…I wouldn’t put anything past them, but rolling double donuts on the road (what? where did YOU come up with that?...anyway, it means two losses) would count as a worrying sign in my mind.
And…I think that’s everyone, even if I can’t promise anything after missing Columbus last week, a team worth watching. We’ll see where the results go from here. Till some time after Week 18 (for the league-wide stuff, I mean; I expect to cover Portland v San Jose on Wednesday and Cincinnati v. Orlando…by Sunday).
In other news…yeah, auditioning a new format. It uses last week’s Super Standings post as a point of (very loose) point of reference, but, due to time constraints, I’ll be keeping the format simple, bordering on stupid, yet with some hope it’ll offer some good information - particularly as one week progresses to the next and this trend or that either gets confirmed or crumbles - of which this week has some solid candidates. I think that’s all the explanation it needs, so, moving on…
I didn’t give every match the Silver Service Review (e.g., sitting through the MLS-in-15 video plus diving into the stats) due to, again, time restraints. Happily, every game of some interest played before midnight Saturday, which allowed for some borrowed time on the other side, and I sat through the full 90 of both teams I cover, the Portland Timbers (who died against the Los Angeles Galaxy) and FC Cincinnati (who continued a distressing streak of futility against half of DC United). For the record, those games are (and a link to the Match Center thing is embedded in each score):
Los Angeles FC 2-2 Minnesota United FC
New York City FC 4-1 Columbus Crew SC
Orlando City SC 3-2 Atlanta United FC
Seattle Sounders 0-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Red Bull New York 2-3 New England Revolution
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 FC Dallas
I’ll put what I saw from those Silver Service Reviews into the “This Week” section of each entry below - which entries include every team in the league - but I based everything else on patterns - most of which seem to be holding up nicely, thanks. The second part of each is titled “Trends/Questions,” which is where I’ll note either theories or questions about each team based on the same stuff that informed the Super Standings - e.g., form, strength of schedule, and meaningful trends (e.g., said team struggles to score (e.g., FC Cincinnati), or struggles to avoid avalanches (e.g., the Portland Timbers; the fact they fit those categories so well is my only solace after a weekend of shit spectator sports viewing). With that, here are some notes and theories about where all the teams in MLS are after Week 16, and where they might go from there.
Los Angeles FC
This Week: Week 16 saw LAFC play a very typical game against Minnesota - e.g., they created nearly triple the chances, only to squander them; to name names, Jose Cifuentes owes the team a beer for missing a late sitter. All in all, it falls into the Gold ‘n’ Black’s defining trait of excelling to futility.
Trends/Questions: I saw they signed a Colombian forward named Cristian Arango this morning, and we’ll see what that does. Doubt all you want (doubt even Carlos Vela, but…why?), they defend well enough - 19 goals against, and they have yet to give up more than two goals in one game, and they still create enough pretty damn good chances, which means they keep their potential to take off.
Week 17/18: v SKC, @ SJ...tricky and trickier.
Minnesota United FC
This Week: Reports from Adrian Heath’s bunched undies notwithstanding (something about a late PK for Vancouver), Minnesota had an…eh week - e.g., two road games, two points of six, and so on. I skipped the Vancouver draw (but…noted), but, per the above, Minnesota was a little fortunate to take points out of LA; in a phrase, they drew on a shot and a flail. In their defense, they posted a decent xG against LAFC; honestly, nothing about that game looked awful, but…still lucky.
Trends/Questions: Hey…Vancouver finally broke the Loons 2021 Cascadia winning streak, something they’d had going since Week 1 against Seattle. Point of curiosity: Minnesota have six wins in 2021, all of which came against either Cascadia teams or teams from Texas. It’s possible, in other words, that match-ups will decide their fate - e.g., they have the Timbers’ number, while Colorado has theirs.
Week 17/18: v HOU…which they have to win, yeah?
New York City FC
This Week: NYC straight up ran over Columbus; based on what I saw, 5-0 was the “real” score (based on probability, maybe even aesthetics). In other news, Thiago Andrade looked pretty damn good; they all did. Moreover…
Trends/Questions: This team is rolling. They reside quite comfortably among the league’s better teams in goals against and the scoring has been free, free, free over the past two games. More ominously, they’re not flattening minnows: they went 8-to-1 goals against Orlando and Columbus - and the latter is still one goal against better than them after losing 1-3 at NYCFC.
Week 17/18: @ CHI, @ TFC…they lost to Montreal on the road not so long ago, so…
Columbus Crew SC
This Week: As noted above, Columbus was just flat last week - the defensive rotations sucked and they left guys open. That ain’t like ‘em - they hadn’t allowed two goals in any game prior - struggles with scoring goals still weigh them down…and quite a bit. They’re 12 points behind East-leading New England.
Trends/Questions: I caught wind Caleb Porter mocking the doubters, but, as a Timbers fan, that’s old hat for me; the man talks, even when he doesn’t back it up. The fact remains that the MLS champs have dropped points all over, they have two wins in their last eight, and against a middling schedule. They have things to get right, but they’re lucky they had a foundation under it…well, until New York invited ‘em over to kick the shit out of ‘em.
Week 17/18: v DC, v ATL…ask, and the gods will provide a chance to put up or shut up. Hallelujah.
Orlando City SC
This Week: Credit to them, Orlando pushed back, and with enough weight, to overcome an opening and go-head goal by Atlanta - good ones too. They forced saves out of Alec Cann (two in a row, sometimes) throughout, but the air of inevitability was thick.
Trends/Questions: I probably question them more often than I ought, because they win most of the ones they should and don’t drop all that many…except to Red Bull, a riddle/brand they can't solve.
Week 17/18: v MIA, @ CIN…based on past performance(s; looking at FC Cincy in sum), they could go into Week 18 smelling like a rose.
Atlanta United FC
This Week: The box score tells me the video flattered Atlanta, but they pulled enough quality attacking moves to see why they stabilized and how they might go places.
Trends/Questions: There’s also no getting around just two wins in 16 games - and they haven’t seen one in 11 games. Opposition and circumstances have hurt ‘em, no question, but it’s mostly a scoring problem. It wouldn’t surprise me if they put together a run, but that has to come from something other than possibility and belief and some point.
Week 17/18: @ MTL, @ CLB…despite the challenges, I’m watching for three points. If not…
Los Angeles Galaxy
This Week: I didn’t flag this in my extended notes on their painful (depends on where you live) 4-1 trouncing of the Timbers, but the Galaxy might have looked more terrifying after they scored four than they did to that point. This should improve how people see them, with the state of Portland’s reputation duly noted. Not to take anything away - again, they had several opportunities to run up the score - but Portland handed them at least two of those goals.
Trends/Questions: Between their recent record - i.e, let’s go back…seven games, WLWLDLW - and the Timbers’ knack for falling all the way apart on a bad day, it’s hard to read this game into a narrative. What I can say is that the Galaxy has a decent record of getting points wherever they show up. Nine wins in 16 games doesn’t happen by accident.
Week 17/18: v RSL, v VAN…six points possible…that is all…
Portland Timbers
This Week: Pretty goddamn bad, thanks for asking. Most of this loss came from absurdist defensive collapses - at least three of ‘em, all quite shocking - all of which put me in an existential frame of mind in my extended notes.
Trends/Questions: The Timbers have one more loss than they do wins (five versus four) over the past 10 games, a period that seethes with dark portents - e.g., three three-goal losses, dumb points dropped (away to Houston and home against Minnesota), a problem with road games, etc.
Week 17/18: v SJ, v RSL…anything less than six, I’m punching the panic button till it starts runnning around figuring out what to do next.
Seattle Sounders
This Week: Had Seattle’s three first-half chances fallen to another player besides Reed Baker-Whiting (soap opera name!), maybe Seattle wins this; then again, vague recollections of Raul Ruidiaz pissing away chances says some did. Credit to J. T. Marcinowski where it’s due, Seattle didn’t look so great - and with a decently-experienced roster. No excuses….
Trends/Questions: Seattle has three wins in their last eight, none of them all that impressive (v RSL, v HOU, @ ATX), and they have as many losses besides, few of them glorious. Welcome to the doldrums, Seattle, but I expect you’ll get out of it….now, prove me wrong.
Week 17/18: v FCD…just the one. And if that’s not all three points…things might get interesting.
San Jose Earthquakes
This Week: Hats off to San Jose, they kept a weakened Seattle from lighting it up; moreover, Cristian Espinoza put away the one they had to. On a bad note, Javier Eduardo Lopez, aka, Chofis, has looked short of his billing every time I’ve watched him.
Trends/Questions: Slow - i.e., it’s mostly turning a strong of losses into a string of draws - including three in tough venues (e.g., @ COL, @ MIN, @ SKC) - but, with a win at an even tougher venue, it looks promising. Fact is, they’re only four points behind RSL, the last team over the playoff line in the West. (And, for those following along, two points behind Portland).
Week 17/18: @ POR, v LAFC…I expect a pair of draws; anything more counts as a singal.
Red Bull New York
This Week: On a pure numbers level (i.e., the box score), it didn’t look so bad, but the Revs rolled up their press, they were lucky to get a second goal (scored by Fabio, it was pressure-slop), and the Revs’ Adam Buksa might have got as many chances as Red Bull did. (Fact-check: No, he did not.) They gave up bad goals, New England spread ‘em apart, let the credit fall where you will, etc.
Trends/Questions: I don’t know why I always think this team is better than it is, but the evidence doesn’t support it. The road win over Orlando aside - a team they seem to match up well with, btw - it’s all draws and losses for New Jersey’s finest over their last seven. Chin-ups on the playoff line looks like their future, in contrast with…that is, the next team, not the next sentence.
Week 17/18: v CIN, @ CHI…watching this one closely. Should be telling.
New England Revolution
This Week: Against the larger record, how much does it matter which team made the other look better or worse, and vice versa? Sure it came late, but Buksa’s goal had enough company to make the win feel like an honest shift.
Trends/Questions: Here’s a fun story: the Revolution have five wins plus four more on either side of a puzzling three-game stumble (@ FCD, @ CLB, v TFC). Moreover, they’re bagging those in too many places to make it look like luck. The team to beat for now.
Week 17/18: v NSH, v PHI…a massive couple “weeks,” honestly. Watch what they get outta this.
FC Cincinnati
This Week: In a word, painful. As elaborated here. Very painful.
Trends/Questions: The road hasn’t been all even and down hill, but Cincy still have zero wins over their last six games. Again, that’s six. And they had nearly 40 minutes with an extra player(s). Given all that, how much can any kind of “almost” matter. There is no try. Only do.
Week 17/18: @ RBNY, v ORL…the first one’s on the road, so they have a chance. Composure…
DC United
This Week: A full 90 minutes with the lower end of their roster didn’t change much for me - and that’s despite a healthy soccer-man-crush on Kevin Paredes. Going the other way, they looked plenty sturdy and equally active.
Trends/Questions: Here’s DC’s record over their first eight games: WLLLWLLW. Now, their second eight games: WDLWLDWD. The biggest improvement came with turning losses into draws (a useful form of theft), but the bigger point is, they’re getting points where they should, and dropping them where you’d expect. Another team echo-locating toward the meat of the playoff line.
Week 17/18: @ CLB, v MTL…three points would uphold the pattern, so look for more or less.
Inter Miami CF
This Week: Don’t look now, but Miami’s on a little streak: first they draw Philly at home, then they beat Montreal? Their home record still blows (3-8-3), but most teams in the East would take those two results in a heartbeat.
Trends/Questions: In case it’s not clear, I didn’t even glance at this game. This will happen more often for the rest of the post…
Week 17/18: @ ORL, v NSH…not good…very bad. I’d call one point impressive, two points a triumph, and every point above that worth nothing and/or a miracle.
Club de Foot Montreal
This Week: I mean, you lost to Montreal. No matter how it happened (again, didn’t see it), and best case, it’s a bad day at the office. Going the other way, if this tracks a pattern…
Trends/Questions: If three straight losses on the road counts, then yes. The first two made perfect sense - e.g., @ NYC and @ NE - but dropping points to Miami…well, that crosses a line.
Week 17/18: v ATL, @ DC…they’re not great anywhere, but they’ve played fewer at home. And even fewer at “home” home, i.e., Montreal. I’d call four points over the next two good.
Houston Dynamo FC
This Week: A goal-less draw between two nowhere teams isn’t news anywhere, ever. Which is why don’t feel bad about not watching or reading even damn thing about this one.
Trends/Questions: Fun fact: Houston posted seven draws over their last eight games (related, their last win came in Week 7 while hosting Vancouver). In other news, they’ve been on the road in six of their last 10 games, and in four games out of their last six. And all those draws…
Week 17/18: @ ATX, @ MIN…wonder what Houston will be like on the back nine…especially with that undefeated home record.
Real Salt Lake
This Week: In general, see above. In terms of specifics….eh.
Trends/Questions: They’re thin on wins over their past 10 games - just three with two coming against Vancouver, who they can’t play every week. And yet they’re higher in the standings than Portland. If that don’t knock the stuff outta ya, and make you piss out the vinegar. In their defense, they’ve shown some fight.
Week 17/18: @ LAG, @ POR…a tough run for any team. Anything north of three points is worth noting.
Sporting Kansas City
This Week: And…they stumbled. SKC never looked the better team - an argument backed up by the numbers - and Dallas never had to work too hard for a good look. Hardly what West’s second-place team should get from a team with (literally) half of the points.
Trends/Questions: Just to note it, SKC has dropped weird points at home lately - e.g., draws against Austin and San Jose, plus this loss against Dallas, of all teams. The 5-1-3 home record says they’re fine…but call the drop off against dummies a possible comment on complacency.
Week 17/18: @ LAFC, @ COL…unenviable for most, but SKC is 4-3-0 on the road. I expect three points or more, but wouldn’t panic about fewer…unless the trend continues.
FC Dallas
This Week: Well, shit, they slayed another giant. More significantly, Dallas played one of the West’s best both well (defense) and more efficiently; they won the game for a reason, but two good goals hardly hurt.
Trends/Questions: They have two good wins in a row - a home thwomping of the Galaxy, followed by a road win over SKC - but they still have a lot left to overcome. And yet, they’re still just four points behind a playoff team (RSL) and six points behind 5th place (LAFC)
Week 17/18: @ SEA, v ATX…anything north of four points is worth noting.
Austin FC
This Week: It’s hard to get excited about much around Austin lately - they haven’t beat anyone except Portland since Week 3 (to their credit, but how!) - and I feel like one can safely ignore any team that takes just seven points from 36 on offer. Even if they got a new forward…
Trends/Questions: There aren’t any really, other than losing three straight at home after that Portland win, even if to your better teams (e.g., LAFC, Seattle and Colorado), and even if by close margins.
Week 17/18: v HOU, @ FCD…all Texas rivalries, and all a chance to show what they’ve got.
Colorado Rapids
This Week: See above - I mean, of course they beat Austin - but also below.
Trends/Questions: I think most people have some vague sense that the Rapids are doing all right, but check this out: they’re 5-1-2 at home and 3-3-1 away. And not against a cush schedule. Moreover, just five teams beat them on goals against, and they’ve scored more than 10 teams in the East and 8 teams in the West. The definition of better-than-average.
Week 17/18: v SKC…a classic win-win, honestly; no one will notice if they lose, but everyone will notice if they win.
Vancouver Whitecaps
This Week: I’d care more about Adrian Heath’s moaning about Vancouver’s late penalty if the result didn’t match a fairly broad pattern. Of which…
Trends/Questions: Here are the ‘Caps last 10 results: LLLDDLWDDD. They’ve played tough places and teams since the draws started coming - e.g., @ Seattle and LAFC, but also versus Minnesota and the Galaxy, who they beat. All four of those came in the last seven games, a tough stretch for any team in MLS, and it’s mostly draws and a freak (probably?) blowout home/road loss to RSL. Another team to watch in the West…especially if yours is tripping and dancing on the trapdoor.
Week 17/18: v LAG…would you look at that. Another chance to torment the Galaxy…
Philadelphia Union
This Week: Their only game saw them draw Chicago on the road. I don’t know the particulars…but I also think the particulars don’t matter so much against the backdrop.
Trends/Questions: I’ll save the real question for Chicago’s entry, but here are some recent facts about Philly: they have three home wins against (reasonably?) decent teams (POR, CLB, and DC), but they also have five draws and two losses against teams last year’s Supporters’ Shield winner should brush aside without panting. And yet they aren’t.
Week 17/18: v TFC, @ NE…could go anywhere, but I’m watching for zero points or six.
Chicago Fire FC
This Week: A 2-2 draw looks good on paper for Chicago, but it fails to resolve the key question: is Chicago getting better, or is Philly getting worse?
Trends/Questions: They’re 2-5-3 in their last 10 games, and with the Ws anchored firmly in the middle and, no matter how impressive those look (e.g., 3-0 over Atlanta and 3-1 over Orlando, both at home), the Fire still have just two points from the last 12 available.
Week 17/18: v NYC, v RBNY…at least they’re home games? (Also, holy shit. Anything above one point…)
Toronto FC
This Week: Nashville’s no great shakes on the road (0-1-4; also, so few?), but they’re a solid team, and a respectable result fits a decent pattern.
Trends/Questions: Toronto hasn’t lost in five games. Sure, it’s just two wins, but check out who they played: @ NE, v ORL, v RBNY, @ CHI, v NSH. That’s both gaining and taking points, and pretty damn impressive for a team that gave away everything at the start of the season.
Week 17/18: @ PHI, v NYC…a helluva test. If they pass, every middling team in the East better start boning up on video.
Nashville SC
This Week: I don’t know how it happened, but, no team with its legs decently under them (see below) wants to be the next chapter in a revival story.
Trends/Questions: Nashville hasn’t lost in eight games, and they have as many wins as draws over that period. For a team with eleven games at home, and just four on the road, the gazillion dollar question how well do they travel.
Week 17/18: @ NE, @ MIA…I wouldn’t put anything past them, but rolling double donuts on the road (what? where did YOU come up with that?...anyway, it means two losses) would count as a worrying sign in my mind.
And…I think that’s everyone, even if I can’t promise anything after missing Columbus last week, a team worth watching. We’ll see where the results go from here. Till some time after Week 18 (for the league-wide stuff, I mean; I expect to cover Portland v San Jose on Wednesday and Cincinnati v. Orlando…by Sunday).
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