A Major League Soccer Week 31 (probably) Forecast: Binding and Separation

The opposite of a visual for MLS Week 30.

If I had to give myself a grade for prognostication for my last Major League Soccer preview, I’d give myself a C – plus or minus, your call on the math. From the highest of altitudes (generally where I operate on this stuff), I’d call six of the results unexpected, or maybe just noteworthy, though not wildly so. On the competitive side, it’s probably more significant to note that most of the teams who needed results got them. There, I’d include Orlando City SC beating FC Cincinnati*, Atlanta United beating Toronto FC*, and Minnesota beating Austin FC, all on the road, while Real Salt Lake beat the Colorado Rapids and the Vancouver Whitecaps beat Sporting Kansas City, both of those at home.

(* For the record, these wins were both reasonable and largely expected. The ones with asterisk also made enough sense.)

None of those results flipped the furniture or anything – I’d call the big wins for Los Angeles FC and Columbus Crew SC (over the San Jose Earthquakes and Inter Miami CF, respectively), as well as the Philadelphia Union holding serve at Club du Foot Montreal the more meaningful results from the weekend – but they did some fun things to the narrative. Going the other way, two of the weekend’s most eye-popping surprises – the Houston Dynamo beating the Seattle Sounders (anywhere, really, but that one happened in Houston) and Chicago Fire FC (of all teams) forcing the New England Revolution to a draw in New England – don’t add up to much more than blushes for the better teams. Now, about those wee narrative shifts…

Atlanta’s win finally completed their long trek over the playoff line – something that seemed inevitable given their recent form (7-3-0 in their last 10) – which probably counts as the biggest story in the Eastern Conference. [Ed. – If this wasn’t Atlanta’s first week over the playoff line, I barely regret the error, because the narrative still works.] Elsewhere, Orlando, who haven’t been great lately, gave themselves some space over the playoff line – space that looks good to hold up, fwiw – while both Nashville and Philly maintained their breathing room over DC United and Montreal, respectively. Red Bull New York drew level with New York City FC, but the bigger story (maybe) could be Columbus getting within three points of both of them.

As for the West, losses for Colorado, SKC and Portland all count as noteworthy, but the first two didn’t surprise me (both RSL and Vancouver have been good at home lately) and something in the air primed me for the Portland Timbers’ road loss at the Los Angeles Galaxy. All those results didn’t do much more than tighten up the Western Conference standings – the same goes for Minnesota’s win over Austin – but the Timbers still have four points of breathing room between them and RSL (who are idle this weekend, along with SKC and Red Bull), while Colorado and SKC have even more. Still, Minnesota’s win kept them ahead of the lately surging Whitecaps, but there’s also LAFC, who are in a boat of similar shape and circumstances to Columbus’ in the East…and that’s where I’ll start the previews for tonight’s games. But, first, here are all of tonight’s match-ups:

Atlanta United v New York City FC

FC Cincinnati v Chicago Fire FC

DC United v New England Revolution

Inter Miami CF v Toronto FC

Orlando City SC v Club du Foot Montreal

FC Dallas v Los Angeles FC

Minnesota United v Philadelphia Union

Houston Dynamo v Los Angeles Galaxy

Nashville SC v Columbus Crew SC

Colorado Rapids v Seattle Sounders

Portland Timbers v Vancouver Whitecaps

San Jose Earthquakes v Austin FC

The games not bolded above can be thrown straight out, because I doubt even the locals give a shit at this point – though it bears noting that the home game against Chicago gives Cincy a slim, yet reasonable chance to escape another round with the wooden-spoon paddle wheel (I’ll be missing that one, sadly/dammit), though that depends on results elsewhere (c'mon, TFC, fuck up). As for the rest…

In a fun twist, both LAFC and Columbus sit on 37 points and four points below their respective playoff lines. The question for tonight surrounds their chances of closing that gap in their games tonight. They’re both on the road and, while LAFC looks to have the better chance – because Dallas – though LAFC have found six ways to lose on the road in their last eight games, including to San Jose twice, which means an LAFC win fall short of a given. That said, Dallas has been bad both globally and at home, with just two points taken from their last four home games. It’s other games – specifically, Vancouver at Portland and Minnesota v Philly – that should lend a little urgency to their effort. Portland was rolling prior to the road loss at the Galaxy (or lucky, according to the underlying numbers) and Vancouver sucks on the road (1-5-8 on the season); going the other way, they’ve excelled at forcing draws lately (results for the last seven road games: DDDWDDL), which makes another draw seem the likeliest result. On the other hand, I watched the MLS in 15 of their win over SKC and the ‘Caps didn’t create much and got some bounces, so, to draw in yet another match-up, this gives Portland a decent shot at a win/getting to within three points of the third place Rapids, who host Seattle. If Vancouver does happen to lose and LAFC wins – both reasonable outcomes - they should leap-frog the ‘Caps in the standings.

That leaves what happens in Minnesota and Houston tonight. Minnesota v Philly is hell to handicap, something that’s mostly down to Minnesota. As noted in the last post, the only teams they’ve managed to beat lately are Houston, the Galaxy, and now Austin. The Union aren’t great on the road (3-4-7), but they’ve taken five out of the last nine points available on the road, if against marginal teams (Red Bull, Montreal; they got their W at Cincy) and they’ve gone 4-0-2 over their last six games, so the confidence could be there. Elsewhere, I don’t like the Galaxy’s chances in Houston, because LA have lost three straight on the road (and weren’t much better before that) while Houston has kicked a couple asses at home in recent weeks, taking 10 points from 12.

Put all that together, and I’d put my money on the gap between fourth and fifth in the West widening (and fourth getting closer to third), and some very real congestion among fifth and ninth getting place.

Back to Columbus, and the East in general, I suspect they’ll struggle to get anything out of Nashville. The latter are unbeaten at home (8-0-7), for one, and a draw won’t do much for Columbus in the big picture. And that’s even acknowledging that both Montreal and NYC look like good bets to either lose or draw tonight – e.g., Orlando has been strong at home lately (5-1-2 in their last eight home games) and NYCFC really sucks on the road. Related, if NYCFC does lose tonight, that’ll put Atlanta on 45 points – i.e., where Orlando is as I write – and with a better goal-differential. As such, an Atlanta win and an Orlando loss would lift Atlanta over Orlando – something that should motivate the latter.

I think that leaves only DC v New England, a game that gives the Revs a tricky shot at redemption after stalling against Chicago; with DC posting four straight home wins before Nashville forced last weekend’s draw, and sitting on 10-3-1 at home for the season, a win won’t come easy. The Revs remain odds-on favorites for the Supporters’ Shield, of course, but a win or a loss tonight would shrink their margin of error for landing the single-season points record. And, as implied above, I think Nashville will break into the 50s tonight, thereby all but guaranteeing they’ll host a first-round playoff game – very likely as the 2nd-place seed.

All in all, I see Philly, Atlanta and maybe DC clumping around the mid-40-point range by night’s end, while Montreal and both New York teams will form a second lump on either 41 or 40 points, with Columbus still three points below. Orlando feels like a good bet to climb to 48 points, thereby escaping the upper scrum, but DC strikes me as the biggest variable in the mix – New England is still New England – but that would just put them in the lower clump.

Hopefully, that dog-pile of words makes some kind of sense. Again, treat all the above more as expectations than predictions – i.e., outcomes that make more sense given the context. We’ll see how this next batch turns out, but I plan on coming back with another preview ahead of the weekend. Till then…