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| A glimpse at the top of the conferences. |
Yeah, yeah. I got tired of editing my phrasing three times just to get under 280 characters. That said, I still want to honor the concept of brevity, so I’ll keep things tidy or try to.
This is Major League Soccer Week 30, apparently, despite virtually the entire league having played 28 games. Damn new math. Wherever we are on our shared journey, the goal here is to provide a little context for Saturday and Sunday’s match-ups. As such, I’ve woven together a brief narrative (with helpful data in parentheses) to forecast the weekend’s action. First up, here are all of Week 30’s games, listed in the order in which they’ll be played:
L’Impact du Montreal v Philadelphia Union (whoops, already on)
Los Angeles FC v San Jose Earthquakes
Columbus Crew SC v Inter Miami CF
New England Revolution v Chicago Fire FC
FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC
DC United v Nashville SC
Toronto FC v Atlanta United
Houston Dynamo FC v Seattle Sounders
Austin FC v Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake v Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers
Red Bull New York v New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Sporting Kansas City
Now, to address them in completely different order, starting with the two teams on top of both conferences.
Given the opposition, Seattle and the Revs are like two warriors glaring at each other across a battle, each steadily moving toward the other, killing fodder (e.g., Houston and Chicago) on their way. I know New England’s chasing the single-season points record (just seven points to go!), but I wouldn’t blame either team for resting players. Seattle’s only five points clear in the West, but remain a solid bet to win it. That same separation speaks to a general truth about MLS’s Western Conference….hold on, I have to remind myself how this shit works again. OK, ready.
The Less Interesting West
If you accept the premise that Seattle will win the West, and look at the current standings, you’ll see that enough points (seven) separate teams 2-4 - i.e., the teams that host the first-round playoff games; at time of writing, SKC, Colorado, and Portland - from everything below them. Each of them might leap-frog the other, but the chances of any team below them jumping one of them into fourth place aren’t great. With RSL rolling at home (they’ve won six straight; including a 3-0 win over Colorado), the Rapids look to have the toughest weekend…only the five points between them and the Timbers means Portland won’t catch them regardless. Also, Colorado travels well enough and their stingy defensively (fourth best on goals against) that a draw wouldn’t surprise me. SKC arguably face the second greatest challenge, what with the ‘Caps at home and playing strong (6-2-2 in their last 10), but SKC has recovered its footing of late (four wins in their last five), and they travel well as Colorado.
At six points under the Rapids and seven points over RSL, Portland operates in sort of a dead-zone; they stay in fourth no matter what this weekend. As noted above, they play the Galaxy tonight, a team that has been paste-eating bad, but who remains the mix for the cheap seats in the MLS post-season, so let’s talk about that flailing scrum.
The main pack includes RSL and the Galaxy, both on 39 points, Minnesota on 38 points, the Whitecaps on 37, and (why not?), LAFC on 34 and San Jose on 33. The latter two play each other this weekend and they’ve both pissed away what momentum they’ve had - LAFC, in particular, the ‘Quakes have dropped some stupid points at home - making it hard to see either crashing the post-season at this point…unless, that is, one of the teams below them stalls. I covered RSL and Vancouver above- if from the flip-side, but the take-away is that both have a reasonable shot at three points - which leaves the Galaxy and Minnesota. The former have endured a very much “look out below!” back-nine to their season, but Minnesota’s taking serious aim at their feet as well. Portland could stall LA just by stopping them from scoring (where the Galaxy have struggled lately), and has a fair shot at beating them if Sebastian Blanco plays (or Jaroslaw Niezgoda plays, or Diego Valeri finally gets a full game). Minnesota plays at Austin, which looks easy on paper, but 1) Minnesota ain’t great on the road (2-6-6); 2) their last four wins anywhere came against the tail-spinning Galaxy at home, plus three wins over Houston; and 3) Austin has some nice, recent home wins (v RSL and, undercutting my own argument, the Galaxy). Bottom line, I’m not foreseeing any major shifts in the West - not this weekend, and maybe not in 2021 - but feel free to surprise me. Next…
The More Interesting East
Nearly all the games of any real interest - which, here, means they have stakes - play in the Eastern Conference this week. To set the scene: a grand total of ten points separate second-place Nashville from ninth-place Red Bull - and, with the exception Atlanta and Orlando, who play Toronto and Cincinnati, respectively - all those teams play one another. We’re looking at a feeding frenzy, in other words.
Montreal’s below Philly in the standings, but, for all that the Union has improved, Montreal’s playing well enough at home lately to make them look like a good bet to narrow that gap to two points. With how terrible NYC has been on the road (0-6-3 since the early season win over LAFC that had everyone cooing, if you take out Les Pigeons road recent win over Cincy), and the way each team’s goals for/goals against numbers pair up - NYC has a pitiable haul of three goals in their last five games, while the Red Bulls have just six goals allowed in their last 10 games - that gives Red Bull a fair shot at pulling even on 40 points with their crosstown rivals. them, not least because. That leaves DC v Nashville as the marquee match-up of Week 30. The data points to a DC win - they’re 10-3-0 in DC, and have a pair of confident, recent home wins (over Philly and Minnesota) - but Nashville answers back with a pair of recent, respectable road wins (at Montreal and Atlanta). The general trend there is that the three teams that sit lower in the standings have a fair chance of winning and, if they do, they’ll bind up the middle of the Eastern Conference harder than a five-pound brick of cheese.
Of the rest, Orlando has the best shot at getting a little separation - get this: Cincy has gone 2-11-7 over its last 20 games, and damn my eyes, I’ve seen nearly all of them - while, between being on the road and Toronto’s recent upward blip, Atlanta faces the tougher out. Atlanta needs it more, what with living under the playoff line, but let us pause to revel in the clusterfuck that will happen if Red Bull, Montreal, DC, and Atlanta all win and Orlando loses.
I think that leaves just Columbus v Miami, which looks for a nothing game, no matter how much it wounds Phil Neville and gets Caleb Porter chasing invisible upsides. Fin.
This is Major League Soccer Week 30, apparently, despite virtually the entire league having played 28 games. Damn new math. Wherever we are on our shared journey, the goal here is to provide a little context for Saturday and Sunday’s match-ups. As such, I’ve woven together a brief narrative (with helpful data in parentheses) to forecast the weekend’s action. First up, here are all of Week 30’s games, listed in the order in which they’ll be played:
L’Impact du Montreal v Philadelphia Union (whoops, already on)
Los Angeles FC v San Jose Earthquakes
Columbus Crew SC v Inter Miami CF
New England Revolution v Chicago Fire FC
FC Cincinnati v Orlando City SC
DC United v Nashville SC
Toronto FC v Atlanta United
Houston Dynamo FC v Seattle Sounders
Austin FC v Minnesota United FC
Real Salt Lake v Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers
Red Bull New York v New York City FC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC v Sporting Kansas City
Now, to address them in completely different order, starting with the two teams on top of both conferences.
Given the opposition, Seattle and the Revs are like two warriors glaring at each other across a battle, each steadily moving toward the other, killing fodder (e.g., Houston and Chicago) on their way. I know New England’s chasing the single-season points record (just seven points to go!), but I wouldn’t blame either team for resting players. Seattle’s only five points clear in the West, but remain a solid bet to win it. That same separation speaks to a general truth about MLS’s Western Conference….hold on, I have to remind myself how this shit works again. OK, ready.
The Less Interesting West
If you accept the premise that Seattle will win the West, and look at the current standings, you’ll see that enough points (seven) separate teams 2-4 - i.e., the teams that host the first-round playoff games; at time of writing, SKC, Colorado, and Portland - from everything below them. Each of them might leap-frog the other, but the chances of any team below them jumping one of them into fourth place aren’t great. With RSL rolling at home (they’ve won six straight; including a 3-0 win over Colorado), the Rapids look to have the toughest weekend…only the five points between them and the Timbers means Portland won’t catch them regardless. Also, Colorado travels well enough and their stingy defensively (fourth best on goals against) that a draw wouldn’t surprise me. SKC arguably face the second greatest challenge, what with the ‘Caps at home and playing strong (6-2-2 in their last 10), but SKC has recovered its footing of late (four wins in their last five), and they travel well as Colorado.
At six points under the Rapids and seven points over RSL, Portland operates in sort of a dead-zone; they stay in fourth no matter what this weekend. As noted above, they play the Galaxy tonight, a team that has been paste-eating bad, but who remains the mix for the cheap seats in the MLS post-season, so let’s talk about that flailing scrum.
The main pack includes RSL and the Galaxy, both on 39 points, Minnesota on 38 points, the Whitecaps on 37, and (why not?), LAFC on 34 and San Jose on 33. The latter two play each other this weekend and they’ve both pissed away what momentum they’ve had - LAFC, in particular, the ‘Quakes have dropped some stupid points at home - making it hard to see either crashing the post-season at this point…unless, that is, one of the teams below them stalls. I covered RSL and Vancouver above- if from the flip-side, but the take-away is that both have a reasonable shot at three points - which leaves the Galaxy and Minnesota. The former have endured a very much “look out below!” back-nine to their season, but Minnesota’s taking serious aim at their feet as well. Portland could stall LA just by stopping them from scoring (where the Galaxy have struggled lately), and has a fair shot at beating them if Sebastian Blanco plays (or Jaroslaw Niezgoda plays, or Diego Valeri finally gets a full game). Minnesota plays at Austin, which looks easy on paper, but 1) Minnesota ain’t great on the road (2-6-6); 2) their last four wins anywhere came against the tail-spinning Galaxy at home, plus three wins over Houston; and 3) Austin has some nice, recent home wins (v RSL and, undercutting my own argument, the Galaxy). Bottom line, I’m not foreseeing any major shifts in the West - not this weekend, and maybe not in 2021 - but feel free to surprise me. Next…
The More Interesting East
Nearly all the games of any real interest - which, here, means they have stakes - play in the Eastern Conference this week. To set the scene: a grand total of ten points separate second-place Nashville from ninth-place Red Bull - and, with the exception Atlanta and Orlando, who play Toronto and Cincinnati, respectively - all those teams play one another. We’re looking at a feeding frenzy, in other words.
Montreal’s below Philly in the standings, but, for all that the Union has improved, Montreal’s playing well enough at home lately to make them look like a good bet to narrow that gap to two points. With how terrible NYC has been on the road (0-6-3 since the early season win over LAFC that had everyone cooing, if you take out Les Pigeons road recent win over Cincy), and the way each team’s goals for/goals against numbers pair up - NYC has a pitiable haul of three goals in their last five games, while the Red Bulls have just six goals allowed in their last 10 games - that gives Red Bull a fair shot at pulling even on 40 points with their crosstown rivals. them, not least because. That leaves DC v Nashville as the marquee match-up of Week 30. The data points to a DC win - they’re 10-3-0 in DC, and have a pair of confident, recent home wins (over Philly and Minnesota) - but Nashville answers back with a pair of recent, respectable road wins (at Montreal and Atlanta). The general trend there is that the three teams that sit lower in the standings have a fair chance of winning and, if they do, they’ll bind up the middle of the Eastern Conference harder than a five-pound brick of cheese.
Of the rest, Orlando has the best shot at getting a little separation - get this: Cincy has gone 2-11-7 over its last 20 games, and damn my eyes, I’ve seen nearly all of them - while, between being on the road and Toronto’s recent upward blip, Atlanta faces the tougher out. Atlanta needs it more, what with living under the playoff line, but let us pause to revel in the clusterfuck that will happen if Red Bull, Montreal, DC, and Atlanta all win and Orlando loses.
I think that leaves just Columbus v Miami, which looks for a nothing game, no matter how much it wounds Phil Neville and gets Caleb Porter chasing invisible upsides. Fin.
Because I'm research-lazy and uninterested most of the time about them, I shake my head as the Revs top the East. The unfairness of the most uninterested owners in the East - the Krafts - having a very good team on their hands rankles. Of course they do have Bruce Arena and Curt Onalfo running the technical side. So, maybe it pays off to just hand things to Bruce and get back to your real love - pointy ball. And their Argentine and Polish DP's have really shined for them.
ReplyDeleteGood to have you break your self-imposed blog silence!
Bob Kraft sucks, let me count the ways. Im mostly amazed at how consistently successful Bruce Arena continues to be as a coach. I mean, on an eye-test, on-paper level, there's nothing special about the Revs' DPs...at least not beyond on-field production. Since they were my team from the late 1990s until the Timbers came along, I would LOVE to see them finally win the Shield and Cup, but I've touched the same stove, what is it, four times now?
ReplyDeleteThanks! Feels good having room to elaborate again!