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Seeing just one (1!)MLS in 15 video from the past week makes me question the entire concept of global, amateur punditry when it comes to Major League Soccer as a whole. I’d say throw me a fucking bone, but I’m not naïve, I know who I’m dealing with here. [Ed. - That said, I’m struggling to post down this congested stretch and would absolutely understand had the MLS interns who compile those videos went on strike two months ago, by which I mean, I get it.] As such, the end-run preview below relies on equal parts big-picture trends - i.e., results - and recency bias.
As for the frame, I look 10 games back before looking forward to what all the teams with something to either gain or lose will face over the final two or three games of the MLS regular season. To clear out some clutter (see above), I focused on teams operating in, by either numbers or circumstances, plausibly fluid situations - i.e., studiously ignoring all the teams already eliminated - which includes the all-but mathematically-eliminated, e.g., Inter Miami CF - but also the teams that don’t strike me as at risk. So, there goes the New England Revolution - who’ve already clinched top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Supporters’ Shield and the single-season record for points (thrilling for a guy who suffered with them through the aughts) - but also the Philadelphia Union who, because they host FC Cincinnati should escape the tussle ‘n’ tumult below them. Barring a curse, they'll stay in the Top 4 in the East, which means a hosting-at-home-in-Round-1 in the playoffs cream of the Eastern Conference playoffs. I’m pretty sure Nashville will wind up there, but my doubts also persuaded me to look at their end-run to be sure.
When it comes to the Western Conference, that meant pulling Sporting Kansas City, the Seattle Sounders and the Colorado Rapids out of the mix. I don't think a scenario exists where they won't be the Top 3 and I also don’t give a shit about seeding beyond that or which one of them wins the West. And yet, all three are deeply involved when it comes to where all the team below them finish. That’s to say, due to quirks in fate and scheduling, the West ends better than the East.
From here, I list wee data blocks for all the teams competing for either seeding or playoff spots, and organized them according to where I see them finishing the regular season. Also included, the last 10 results for each team, the number of points they’ve taken from that stretch, related notes on strength of schedule, the location and opposition for their final two (or three) games, and, based on that, some notes on their chances at making the playoffs or something better.
For what it's worth, I don’t see a lot of teams hitting the post-season hot. To hazard a sloppy, basically-unobserved guess, I’d give Atlanta, (maybe) DC, Portland, Real Salt Lake, LAFC and (maybe) Vancouver as the teams as the best bets for hitting the playoffs at a run. I can also see literally all of them cocking it up. Related, if the Sounders can't stop tripping over their own toes, maybe that's a global theme for 2021. Maybe we're all tired...
As for the frame, I look 10 games back before looking forward to what all the teams with something to either gain or lose will face over the final two or three games of the MLS regular season. To clear out some clutter (see above), I focused on teams operating in, by either numbers or circumstances, plausibly fluid situations - i.e., studiously ignoring all the teams already eliminated - which includes the all-but mathematically-eliminated, e.g., Inter Miami CF - but also the teams that don’t strike me as at risk. So, there goes the New England Revolution - who’ve already clinched top seed in the Eastern Conference, the Supporters’ Shield and the single-season record for points (thrilling for a guy who suffered with them through the aughts) - but also the Philadelphia Union who, because they host FC Cincinnati should escape the tussle ‘n’ tumult below them. Barring a curse, they'll stay in the Top 4 in the East, which means a hosting-at-home-in-Round-1 in the playoffs cream of the Eastern Conference playoffs. I’m pretty sure Nashville will wind up there, but my doubts also persuaded me to look at their end-run to be sure.
When it comes to the Western Conference, that meant pulling Sporting Kansas City, the Seattle Sounders and the Colorado Rapids out of the mix. I don't think a scenario exists where they won't be the Top 3 and I also don’t give a shit about seeding beyond that or which one of them wins the West. And yet, all three are deeply involved when it comes to where all the team below them finish. That’s to say, due to quirks in fate and scheduling, the West ends better than the East.
From here, I list wee data blocks for all the teams competing for either seeding or playoff spots, and organized them according to where I see them finishing the regular season. Also included, the last 10 results for each team, the number of points they’ve taken from that stretch, related notes on strength of schedule, the location and opposition for their final two (or three) games, and, based on that, some notes on their chances at making the playoffs or something better.
For what it's worth, I don’t see a lot of teams hitting the post-season hot. To hazard a sloppy, basically-unobserved guess, I’d give Atlanta, (maybe) DC, Portland, Real Salt Lake, LAFC and (maybe) Vancouver as the teams as the best bets for hitting the playoffs at a run. I can also see literally all of them cocking it up. Related, if the Sounders can't stop tripping over their own toes, maybe that's a global theme for 2021. Maybe we're all tired...
With that traditionally overlong preamble out of the way (and, oh, the stuff I'm bitting my tongue to keep from adding), here is the official Conifers & Citrus (STILL KICKIN’!) End-Run Preview!
The Eastern Conference
Nashville SC
Last 10: WLWDDDDDLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hard - e.g., eight of ten on the road, four against playoff teams - but they got two blowouts out of those too (a 5-1 win over Miami, and 6-3 over Cincy). They also pissed away the two home games (draws v Orlando and Columbus).
Next 2: v ORL, v RBNY
The only question here is whether they’ll drop out of hosting a first-round playoff game. Based on everything, I can’t see that happening. I’d call ‘em a lock for 2nd if they hadn’t dropped the home games mentioned above. That said, Philly has a great chance of stalling at 53 (they play NYCFC on the road on Decision Day (TM)), and that should keep Nashville at the No. 2 seed.
Atlanta United FC
Last 10: LWWWLWLWDW (19 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Likely benefitted from playing Miami twice, and they had Cincy and Toronto in there, but the rest are Eastern Conference competitive; they had two narrow losses at Philly and Montreal.
Last 3: v TFC, at RBNY, at CIN
With that schedule, I’d say they have a positive duty to kick themselves if they don’t get six points out of those three; seven seems entirely plausible and nine far from out of the question. For perspective, that’d put ‘em on 54 points - which I’d call good for third place.
New York City FC
Last 10: DWDLLDLDWW (13 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn weak - e.g., Dallas, Cincinnati, Chicago twice. They had the misfortune of catching Red Bull on their upswing and got one point from three games out of it.
Next 2: at MIA, v PHI
It depends on how much “the Red Bull Factor” defined their skid - one point from nine hurts - but I see them getting four points at most from their last two games.
Orlando City SC
Last 10: LLLLDWWDDL (9 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty stout - e.g., much of the improved East (e.g., Atlanta and Montreal) and the Revs twice. Their two wins came at home versus DC and away at Cincinnati.
Next 2: v NSH, at MTL
Based on everything, the Lions have a better than fair chance of stalling on 48 points; and I’d call 51 points a hard ceiling. I'd call cracking the Top 4 out of the question and missing the playoffs a possibility.
DC United
Last 10: DWLWWLDLLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: A couple soft spots - e.g., Chicago and Cincy at home - and they got mauled pretty reliably by the East’s fancier teams, but they got some solid home wins - e.g., Philly, Minnesota and, last weekend, a rolling Red Bull.
Last 2: v CLB, at TFC
Some of it will turn on how injuries, but, since they’re not playing the East’s fancier teams, I’d give DC a fair crack at 48 points from that. I feel comfortable calling them playoff-safe, but breaking into the Top 4 feels like a damned long stretch.
Red Bull New York
Last 10: LWDWDWWWWL (20 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Having NYC’s number helped, but, aside from beating Columbus on the road a couple weeks ago, it’s mostly punching down.
Last 3: v MTL, v ATL, at NSH
With a nod to my notes on Atlanta, neither Montreal nor Atlanta are great on the road (so that’s six points for Atlanta?), I’d put money on them getting at least four points - and probably five with the way Nashville ties games. That’s get ‘em to 48 points, a number that looks more precarious with every team I cover.
Club du Foot Montreal
Last 10: WLWWLLWDDD (15 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Dropping points at home versus Nashville and New England isn’t good, but it also forgivable. They’ve got some good wins (e.g., Orlando away, Atlanta at home) and their losses make sense.
Last 3: at RBNY, v HOU, v ORL
The scramble at the bottom of the East will be tight, but my gut says Montreal will have to over-perform more than the rest to make the playoffs.
Columbus Crew SC
Last 10: LLWDWLWDLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Getting it done at home, and against decent teams, but, despite a little moxie here and there (draws at New England and Nashville), they've been pretty shit on the road.
Last 2: at DC, v CHI
Pfft. Don’t know why I put them in here. Winning out only gets them to 47 points and it’d take a fuck-up for the ages from all three teams above them for Columbus to make it. The road game at DC will probably decide it - i.e., they're done if they don't get all three points.
The Western Conference
Portland Timbers
Last 10: WDWWWWLLLW (19 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than I appreciated, honestly. Take out Miami and, last weekend, San Jose, they played playoff-competitive teams throughout. In context, it’s less surprising they ran out of gas.
Last 2: at RSL, v ATX
If the Timbers don’t reach 52 points, I’m gonna fight somebody (leaving the unlikely soul very likely confused as to what’s going on, but also likely the victor). As noted in the last post, they have enough fuck-up space that to make the playoffs. And, based on everything below, it would take fucking up serially and colossally for Portland to fall out of fourth place. That said, there is one clear and present danger…
Real Salt Lake
Last 10: WLWWLWLWLW (18 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Apart from Chicago and Austin, once each, and Dallas twice, pretty stout - and they still got half the points from those (thank you, Dallas). They’re kind of on, “we can beat everybody,” but that collapse against Portland…damn…
Next 3: v SJ, v POR, at SKC
It all depends on the little red wheelbarrow…sorry, it mostly turns on what RSL does against San Jose tomorrow. Winning that puts them in the thick of every team above them…and this is the clear and present danger to the Timbers. If they beat San Jose and then Portland, they’ve got a real crack at climbing into fourth on Portland’s back.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Last 10: LDWDWLWWDW (18 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than average, and they’re still perfect at home (if with some comparative gimmes, e.g., Dallas and San Jose) since the loss to Portland ten weeks ago - and they’ve dug out some key wins down the stretch (e.g., SKC and Minnesota at home, Portland on the road).
Last 2: at LAFC, v SEA
Damn, is that end-run unenviable. It’s enough to make stalling on 47 a real possibility, something that could kill their season early. Based on recent form, and with their 47 points on hand, I feel safe pegging them at 49 or 50.
Los Angeles FC
Last 10: WWLLLDWWDW (17 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Not a ton of softness - i.e., just four teams tripping on their way to the playoffs (San Jose twice), but Portland having their number hurt them, and perhaps specifically.
Last 2: v VAN, at COL
Their recent form makes them feel like a good bet for 48 points and a reasonable bet for 50.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Last 10: DDLLLDWWDL (10 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: They got five points out of 12 from the Texas teams - i.e., hardly impressive - but they did get two decent wins at home to Portland and away to Houston. It’s hard to take them seriously, honestly.
Last 2: at SEA, v MIN
As bad and as wobbly as Minnesota have been lately, neither of those are easy games. Their Decision Day (TM) game against Minnesota already looks pivotal.
Minnesota United FC
Last 10: LWWLDLWWDL (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hard - e.g., when they played middling teams (e.g., Vancouver, DC, even Dallas), they played them on the road. Getting decent wins when they should too.
Next 2: v SKC, at LAG
I can see them fucking up both games, but I can also see them getting four points. While they’re stronger than they’ve looked by results alone, both those games suck and 48 points - my most optimistic finish for them - doesn’t feel likely.
The Eastern Conference
Nashville SC
Last 10: WLWDDDDDLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hard - e.g., eight of ten on the road, four against playoff teams - but they got two blowouts out of those too (a 5-1 win over Miami, and 6-3 over Cincy). They also pissed away the two home games (draws v Orlando and Columbus).
Next 2: v ORL, v RBNY
The only question here is whether they’ll drop out of hosting a first-round playoff game. Based on everything, I can’t see that happening. I’d call ‘em a lock for 2nd if they hadn’t dropped the home games mentioned above. That said, Philly has a great chance of stalling at 53 (they play NYCFC on the road on Decision Day (TM)), and that should keep Nashville at the No. 2 seed.
Atlanta United FC
Last 10: LWWWLWLWDW (19 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Likely benefitted from playing Miami twice, and they had Cincy and Toronto in there, but the rest are Eastern Conference competitive; they had two narrow losses at Philly and Montreal.
Last 3: v TFC, at RBNY, at CIN
With that schedule, I’d say they have a positive duty to kick themselves if they don’t get six points out of those three; seven seems entirely plausible and nine far from out of the question. For perspective, that’d put ‘em on 54 points - which I’d call good for third place.
New York City FC
Last 10: DWDLLDLDWW (13 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn weak - e.g., Dallas, Cincinnati, Chicago twice. They had the misfortune of catching Red Bull on their upswing and got one point from three games out of it.
Next 2: at MIA, v PHI
It depends on how much “the Red Bull Factor” defined their skid - one point from nine hurts - but I see them getting four points at most from their last two games.
Orlando City SC
Last 10: LLLLDWWDDL (9 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty stout - e.g., much of the improved East (e.g., Atlanta and Montreal) and the Revs twice. Their two wins came at home versus DC and away at Cincinnati.
Next 2: v NSH, at MTL
Based on everything, the Lions have a better than fair chance of stalling on 48 points; and I’d call 51 points a hard ceiling. I'd call cracking the Top 4 out of the question and missing the playoffs a possibility.
DC United
Last 10: DWLWWLDLLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: A couple soft spots - e.g., Chicago and Cincy at home - and they got mauled pretty reliably by the East’s fancier teams, but they got some solid home wins - e.g., Philly, Minnesota and, last weekend, a rolling Red Bull.
Last 2: v CLB, at TFC
Some of it will turn on how injuries, but, since they’re not playing the East’s fancier teams, I’d give DC a fair crack at 48 points from that. I feel comfortable calling them playoff-safe, but breaking into the Top 4 feels like a damned long stretch.
Red Bull New York
Last 10: LWDWDWWWWL (20 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Having NYC’s number helped, but, aside from beating Columbus on the road a couple weeks ago, it’s mostly punching down.
Last 3: v MTL, v ATL, at NSH
With a nod to my notes on Atlanta, neither Montreal nor Atlanta are great on the road (so that’s six points for Atlanta?), I’d put money on them getting at least four points - and probably five with the way Nashville ties games. That’s get ‘em to 48 points, a number that looks more precarious with every team I cover.
Club du Foot Montreal
Last 10: WLWWLLWDDD (15 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Dropping points at home versus Nashville and New England isn’t good, but it also forgivable. They’ve got some good wins (e.g., Orlando away, Atlanta at home) and their losses make sense.
Last 3: at RBNY, v HOU, v ORL
The scramble at the bottom of the East will be tight, but my gut says Montreal will have to over-perform more than the rest to make the playoffs.
Columbus Crew SC
Last 10: LLWDWLWDLW (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Getting it done at home, and against decent teams, but, despite a little moxie here and there (draws at New England and Nashville), they've been pretty shit on the road.
Last 2: at DC, v CHI
Pfft. Don’t know why I put them in here. Winning out only gets them to 47 points and it’d take a fuck-up for the ages from all three teams above them for Columbus to make it. The road game at DC will probably decide it - i.e., they're done if they don't get all three points.
The Western Conference
Portland Timbers
Last 10: WDWWWWLLLW (19 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than I appreciated, honestly. Take out Miami and, last weekend, San Jose, they played playoff-competitive teams throughout. In context, it’s less surprising they ran out of gas.
Last 2: at RSL, v ATX
If the Timbers don’t reach 52 points, I’m gonna fight somebody (leaving the unlikely soul very likely confused as to what’s going on, but also likely the victor). As noted in the last post, they have enough fuck-up space that to make the playoffs. And, based on everything below, it would take fucking up serially and colossally for Portland to fall out of fourth place. That said, there is one clear and present danger…
Real Salt Lake
Last 10: WLWWLWLWLW (18 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Apart from Chicago and Austin, once each, and Dallas twice, pretty stout - and they still got half the points from those (thank you, Dallas). They’re kind of on, “we can beat everybody,” but that collapse against Portland…damn…
Next 3: v SJ, v POR, at SKC
It all depends on the little red wheelbarrow…sorry, it mostly turns on what RSL does against San Jose tomorrow. Winning that puts them in the thick of every team above them…and this is the clear and present danger to the Timbers. If they beat San Jose and then Portland, they’ve got a real crack at climbing into fourth on Portland’s back.
Vancouver Whitecaps
Last 10: LDWDWLWWDW (18 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Tougher than average, and they’re still perfect at home (if with some comparative gimmes, e.g., Dallas and San Jose) since the loss to Portland ten weeks ago - and they’ve dug out some key wins down the stretch (e.g., SKC and Minnesota at home, Portland on the road).
Last 2: at LAFC, v SEA
Damn, is that end-run unenviable. It’s enough to make stalling on 47 a real possibility, something that could kill their season early. Based on recent form, and with their 47 points on hand, I feel safe pegging them at 49 or 50.
Los Angeles FC
Last 10: WWLLLDWWDW (17 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Not a ton of softness - i.e., just four teams tripping on their way to the playoffs (San Jose twice), but Portland having their number hurt them, and perhaps specifically.
Last 2: v VAN, at COL
Their recent form makes them feel like a good bet for 48 points and a reasonable bet for 50.
Los Angeles Galaxy
Last 10: DDLLLDWWDL (10 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: They got five points out of 12 from the Texas teams - i.e., hardly impressive - but they did get two decent wins at home to Portland and away to Houston. It’s hard to take them seriously, honestly.
Last 2: at SEA, v MIN
As bad and as wobbly as Minnesota have been lately, neither of those are easy games. Their Decision Day (TM) game against Minnesota already looks pivotal.
Minnesota United FC
Last 10: LWWLDLWWDL (14 pts. from 30)
Strength of Schedule: Pretty damn hard - e.g., when they played middling teams (e.g., Vancouver, DC, even Dallas), they played them on the road. Getting decent wins when they should too.
Next 2: v SKC, at LAG
I can see them fucking up both games, but I can also see them getting four points. While they’re stronger than they’ve looked by results alone, both those games suck and 48 points - my most optimistic finish for them - doesn’t feel likely.
Well, that covers it. We'll see how it all shakes out between here and next Sunday. Looking forward to the playoffs. And who will make it.
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