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| Mixing the metaphors. |
With about a month gone in Major League Soccer’s 2022 season, teams are starting to develop the outlines to the forwards to the stories of their season. That might sound like a whole lotta ain’t shit, but even rough drafts have storylines.
I posted something a couple days ago, where I organized all 28 MLS teams into four broad groups with a medieval-inspired class system: Nobility, Gentry, Free Laborers and Serfs. I explain those terms below, but the work of pulling that together finally helped me finish a thought that’s been bumping against the inside of my skull for a couple years.
I don’t know where it came from and, honestly, I think the talking point has died down a bit, but MLS either had or handed itself a reputation for being “unpredictable.” Like…five years go, someone clipped that into the phrase, “that’s so MLS.” (Like that damn car commercial…gawd, is it Buick? Yes, Buick.) Because a lot of shit that doesn’t make sense happens in MLS, something like that flew well enough to get off the ground and, for a time, become a thing. But it was always kind of crap. MLS is, and always has been, unpredictable week to week. Some of that’s parity, some of it’s the league’s built-in ceiling on talent (we ain’t the Golden Shores of Europe), some of it’s just sports shit - e.g., travel, weather, hating the coach, hating one’s teammates, tummy aches, slumps, slump-brain, drama…so I guess that’s sports shit and/or life shit...and I'm resisting cheap shots at the Timbers F.O. fucking heroically, people.
But, once you sit still long enough to actually think about every team in the league, it becomes clear you have opinions on most, if not all of them. In other words, once you look past the fusillade of curveballs, sliders, and even those duds that just piddle across the plate during any given week of any given regular season, you see teams with histories and habits, good, bad and FC Cincinnati. That’s not to say you don’t still get ups and downs - e.g., how long has it been since one-time dynasties like DC United, the Houston Dynamo, or even the Los Angeles Galaxy have fielded a team that looked like it would get to see a trophy because they walked on to the field to play for it? - it’s more that the state of most teams follow arcs that last several seasons. Those long-term trends stick with you…and that’s because they’re pretty damn sticky at the end of the day. Now, back to the Nobility, Gentry, etc.
Just three games have adjusted my opinion on a handful of teams one way or the other - and I’ll mention them after the definitions and which teams fit where (and the prior post shows my math) - but here’s how my little class system translates to results:
Nobility
New England Revolution, New York City FC, Seattle Sounders, Colorado Rapids, Portland Timbers
As with the real thing, it takes a lot to dislodge this bunch from their elevated station, because, even when they drop stupid points, they have a history of making that a bad memory by going on a run. It takes a village/an avalanche of fuck-ups, in other words.
Gentry
Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC, Philadelphia Union, Red Bull New York, Atlanta United FC, Orlando City SC, Columbus Crew SC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake
Teams good enough to punch some points out of the nobility, but also a good bet to get more points than they lose against the lower orders. Good-to-reasonable bets for the playoffs, even if they all can’t make it.
Free Laborers
Sporting Kansas City, DC United, FC Dallas, Chicago Fire FC, Club du Foot Montreal
Somewhere between not bad and not good, capable on the odd day without being capable overall.
Serfs
Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Toronto FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo, Austin FC, Charlotte FC, Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati
Teams the rest of the league looks to when they need points.
I believe only one team went up so far: Real Salt Lake bought its way into the Gentry by getting six points any rational gambler would bet against them earning (wins over Seattle and away to the Revs). Going the other way, and I’m delighted to type the phrase “the Great White North went south,” I kicked Vancouver down to Serfdom and have Montreal hanging over that abyss by the thread of the CONCACAF Champions League and a tough opening schedule. Vancouver, meanwhile, has neither for an excuse and, tough as it’s been for everyone’s favorite French-Canadian team, zero points is zero points. And points are the measure of all things around here.
I posted something a couple days ago, where I organized all 28 MLS teams into four broad groups with a medieval-inspired class system: Nobility, Gentry, Free Laborers and Serfs. I explain those terms below, but the work of pulling that together finally helped me finish a thought that’s been bumping against the inside of my skull for a couple years.
I don’t know where it came from and, honestly, I think the talking point has died down a bit, but MLS either had or handed itself a reputation for being “unpredictable.” Like…five years go, someone clipped that into the phrase, “that’s so MLS.” (Like that damn car commercial…gawd, is it Buick? Yes, Buick.) Because a lot of shit that doesn’t make sense happens in MLS, something like that flew well enough to get off the ground and, for a time, become a thing. But it was always kind of crap. MLS is, and always has been, unpredictable week to week. Some of that’s parity, some of it’s the league’s built-in ceiling on talent (we ain’t the Golden Shores of Europe), some of it’s just sports shit - e.g., travel, weather, hating the coach, hating one’s teammates, tummy aches, slumps, slump-brain, drama…so I guess that’s sports shit and/or life shit...and I'm resisting cheap shots at the Timbers F.O. fucking heroically, people.
But, once you sit still long enough to actually think about every team in the league, it becomes clear you have opinions on most, if not all of them. In other words, once you look past the fusillade of curveballs, sliders, and even those duds that just piddle across the plate during any given week of any given regular season, you see teams with histories and habits, good, bad and FC Cincinnati. That’s not to say you don’t still get ups and downs - e.g., how long has it been since one-time dynasties like DC United, the Houston Dynamo, or even the Los Angeles Galaxy have fielded a team that looked like it would get to see a trophy because they walked on to the field to play for it? - it’s more that the state of most teams follow arcs that last several seasons. Those long-term trends stick with you…and that’s because they’re pretty damn sticky at the end of the day. Now, back to the Nobility, Gentry, etc.
Just three games have adjusted my opinion on a handful of teams one way or the other - and I’ll mention them after the definitions and which teams fit where (and the prior post shows my math) - but here’s how my little class system translates to results:
Nobility
New England Revolution, New York City FC, Seattle Sounders, Colorado Rapids, Portland Timbers
As with the real thing, it takes a lot to dislodge this bunch from their elevated station, because, even when they drop stupid points, they have a history of making that a bad memory by going on a run. It takes a village/an avalanche of fuck-ups, in other words.
Gentry
Nashville SC, Los Angeles FC, Philadelphia Union, Red Bull New York, Atlanta United FC, Orlando City SC, Columbus Crew SC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake
Teams good enough to punch some points out of the nobility, but also a good bet to get more points than they lose against the lower orders. Good-to-reasonable bets for the playoffs, even if they all can’t make it.
Free Laborers
Sporting Kansas City, DC United, FC Dallas, Chicago Fire FC, Club du Foot Montreal
Somewhere between not bad and not good, capable on the odd day without being capable overall.
Serfs
Vancouver Whitecaps FC, Toronto FC, San Jose Earthquakes, Houston Dynamo, Austin FC, Charlotte FC, Inter Miami CF, FC Cincinnati
Teams the rest of the league looks to when they need points.
I believe only one team went up so far: Real Salt Lake bought its way into the Gentry by getting six points any rational gambler would bet against them earning (wins over Seattle and away to the Revs). Going the other way, and I’m delighted to type the phrase “the Great White North went south,” I kicked Vancouver down to Serfdom and have Montreal hanging over that abyss by the thread of the CONCACAF Champions League and a tough opening schedule. Vancouver, meanwhile, has neither for an excuse and, tough as it’s been for everyone’s favorite French-Canadian team, zero points is zero points. And points are the measure of all things around here.
Soccer has been analogized to a lot of things, but I’d like to think I’m the first guy to compare it to Hungry Hungry Hippos. In the context of a league - even when with a playoff system that rewards failure, like MLS’s - the unspoken prime directive follows the same logic as the Hasbro classic: get all the things you can so that the other hippos can’t. Change the “hippos” to “teams” and “marbles” to “points,” you still get the same mad scramble. The key differences between league and board game are that some have longer necks, some shorter, and that the marbles roll into the feasting trough 34 times throughout the regular season. That makes for 34 bites at the marbles over the length of the game, and those longer and shorter necks never stop counting, even if the length of any given participant's neck changes between games. Answering the question how much per team is why I set up that Medieval Class sytem.
And that (finally, and sorry) brings me to Week 4. The best games feature duels amongst the Gentry, the worst involve serfs beating one another with leprotic arms, and a comparatively thin middle offers points of interest that will take time to either come good or mean much. Think the categories are self-explanatory. Here goes:
Tasty Treats
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake v Nashville SC
Red Bull New York v Columbus Crew SC
Los Angeles Galaxy v Orlando City SC
Each game presents different narratives, and there’s a member of nobility in the mix, but all go to the heart of the Hungry Hungry Hippos analogy - e.g., will a heretofore solid Philly squad see a better chance to poach all three points from a leg-drunk NYCFC this season? Another has more of a redemption-style arc - e.g., how many giants to RSL have to kill before people see them as one? - while three more - e.g., Columbus, LA, and Red Bull - need to start ditching peers and rivals three points at a time. Do it often enough and you wind up as one of those lucky teams with expectations. And that’s exactly where Orlando wants to be, same as Nashville, though I think more people would bet on the latter than the former.
Something for the Palate
This group’s a little more specific, so I’ll explain each in turn.
Atlanta United FC v Club du Foot Montreal
Because I don’t think we’ve seen peak-Montreal yet (e.g., third tricky road game in four total, plus the CCL), my eyes are on Atlanta. A good team gets all three points off a bunch of leg-drunk Quebecois on a layover home from Central America.
Chicago Fire FC v Sporting Kansas City
I’m guessing this match-up feels distressingly equal to SKC fans and players - shit; did I mentioned that I rather viciously downgraded them? - which gets to why this one interests me as much as any in Week 4. Both teams need it, if for different reasons: Chicago to see progress, SKC to get back in the foot-race with the Joneses.
Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes
The ‘Quakes feel like a good match-up for Minnesota, but they’re still a janky, under-resourced team. The Loons don’t want to piss away even two points here.
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
I see this game a good, early way for Dallas to build morale/momentum, while the Timbers can rationalize a loss at least half a dozen ways. One team will get more use out of three points in the here and now, in other words, and that’s Dallas.
Sidebar on Dallas v Timbers
I’ve tried to hype this game into something, but can’t drag the myth into reality. One thing I can say is Dallas first-year head coach, Nico Estevez, appears to a line-up/system he believes in - or at least he’s used (more or less) the same one over their first three games. And it has delivered decent results against a pair of good teams - e.g., a skinny loss at New England and last week’s impressive home draw versus Nashville. One thing that stands out in that line-up: a three-man frontline (e.g., Jader Obrian, Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola) that should make the Timbers center backs feel tall. I’m half-guessing here, but I expect the main challenge for Portland’s D will come with managing mobility and closing gaps on shots from range.
From Portland’s side, despite rumors that some of last year’s starters - e.g., Dario Zuparic, maybe even Eryk Williamson - could be ready to return, and that Sebastian Blanco might be ready for more minutes, I’d be fine if Gio trotted out the same line-up (or as much of it as he has on hand) from the first three games. I know neither more time nor more rest keep injuries from recurring on their own, but this year’s regular starting line-up has held up well enough and getting them more reps should have benefits later in the season in the event of injuries, whether new or recurring. So, yeah, roll the dice one more time, Gio. Unless I'm very wrong about the overall resilience of this team, they have the quality, depth and long hippo necks to gobbble up points later.
Houston Dynamo FC v Colorado Rapids
Austin FC v Seattle Sounders
These two go together, actually, and for the exact same reason: wins for either or both home teams would set up little what ifs for all concerned - e.g., will Houston get rolling (they did make some big signings this off-season)? was the loss at Portland a hiccup for Austin? - but a pair of draws or the “bigger teams” walking out with thin wins feel like safer bets.
Table Scraps
FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC v DC United
Charlotte FC v New England Revolution
Los Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
I don’t expect neutrals to pay any mind to those first two games - but I’ll have a couple notes on Cincy below - though I can see a DC win getting people chattering. One can defend that on the rawest of numbers - i.e., three wins in four games counts as a good handful of marbles - but a limping Toronto looks like DC’s greatest challenge of so far this season, which means they haven’t graduated to the big-kid rides in my mind.
And, yeah, I put LAFC v Vancouver down here because I expect a home win and, likely as I think it is (putting it at 35-40%), I don’t think anyone will care if Charlotte beats a winded New England team. Again, having the doctor’s note in hand (aka, the CCL) buys a team a little indulgence (even if that excuse expired Wednesday night after a three-goal margin proved too small to keep the Revs in the tourney).
Sidebar on FC Cincinnati v Miami
Cincy head coach, Pat Noonan, got two steady performances and three points out of his team over their past two games. I doubt choruses of “problem solved!” ring over the rooftops in the Queen City, but a home game against another team scrapping for survival very much counts as “proof of concept” moment. On the plus side, Cincinnati has finally built a functioning, if imperfect, two-way midfield - i.e., I don’t see it outright controlling the center of the field, the strides they made in being able to flip from defense to offense without taking up too much time or pissing away the opportunity should keep the opposing midfield honest.
As for Miami, because they’ve either played equals (i.e., your weaker teams) or their betters (e.g., LAFC), I haven’t put any time into them so far this season. Based on a glance at their starting XIs, the personnel and formation from their first two games (e.g., v CHI and @ ATX) strikes me as their best, current idea for competing. The horrors Austin visited upon them aside, they appear to defend well enough - notably, LAFC only scored their two goals last week after the ref directed make-shift center back Brek Shea to the locker room - but Miami have scored only half as many goals as Cincinnati, which is to say one. Cincy’s attack, meanwhile, has looked better with each game - i.e., from obstructed looks at Austin, to Dom Badji and Brandon Vazquez finding good positions/half-chances against DC, to Vazquez coming damn close to scoring a hat-trick off some squeaky-clean looks at Orlando.
Put it all together, and this comes as close to a must-win as a team can get just four weeks into the season. Their history makes Cincinnati a very short-necked hungry hungry hippo. As such, there's no present guarantee that necked will grow, they need to bank as many marbles as they can out of their fellow Serfs.
And that (finally, and sorry) brings me to Week 4. The best games feature duels amongst the Gentry, the worst involve serfs beating one another with leprotic arms, and a comparatively thin middle offers points of interest that will take time to either come good or mean much. Think the categories are self-explanatory. Here goes:
Tasty Treats
New York City FC v Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake v Nashville SC
Red Bull New York v Columbus Crew SC
Los Angeles Galaxy v Orlando City SC
Each game presents different narratives, and there’s a member of nobility in the mix, but all go to the heart of the Hungry Hungry Hippos analogy - e.g., will a heretofore solid Philly squad see a better chance to poach all three points from a leg-drunk NYCFC this season? Another has more of a redemption-style arc - e.g., how many giants to RSL have to kill before people see them as one? - while three more - e.g., Columbus, LA, and Red Bull - need to start ditching peers and rivals three points at a time. Do it often enough and you wind up as one of those lucky teams with expectations. And that’s exactly where Orlando wants to be, same as Nashville, though I think more people would bet on the latter than the former.
Something for the Palate
This group’s a little more specific, so I’ll explain each in turn.
Atlanta United FC v Club du Foot Montreal
Because I don’t think we’ve seen peak-Montreal yet (e.g., third tricky road game in four total, plus the CCL), my eyes are on Atlanta. A good team gets all three points off a bunch of leg-drunk Quebecois on a layover home from Central America.
Chicago Fire FC v Sporting Kansas City
I’m guessing this match-up feels distressingly equal to SKC fans and players - shit; did I mentioned that I rather viciously downgraded them? - which gets to why this one interests me as much as any in Week 4. Both teams need it, if for different reasons: Chicago to see progress, SKC to get back in the foot-race with the Joneses.
Minnesota United FC v San Jose Earthquakes
The ‘Quakes feel like a good match-up for Minnesota, but they’re still a janky, under-resourced team. The Loons don’t want to piss away even two points here.
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
I see this game a good, early way for Dallas to build morale/momentum, while the Timbers can rationalize a loss at least half a dozen ways. One team will get more use out of three points in the here and now, in other words, and that’s Dallas.
Sidebar on Dallas v Timbers
I’ve tried to hype this game into something, but can’t drag the myth into reality. One thing I can say is Dallas first-year head coach, Nico Estevez, appears to a line-up/system he believes in - or at least he’s used (more or less) the same one over their first three games. And it has delivered decent results against a pair of good teams - e.g., a skinny loss at New England and last week’s impressive home draw versus Nashville. One thing that stands out in that line-up: a three-man frontline (e.g., Jader Obrian, Jesus Ferreira and Paul Arriola) that should make the Timbers center backs feel tall. I’m half-guessing here, but I expect the main challenge for Portland’s D will come with managing mobility and closing gaps on shots from range.
From Portland’s side, despite rumors that some of last year’s starters - e.g., Dario Zuparic, maybe even Eryk Williamson - could be ready to return, and that Sebastian Blanco might be ready for more minutes, I’d be fine if Gio trotted out the same line-up (or as much of it as he has on hand) from the first three games. I know neither more time nor more rest keep injuries from recurring on their own, but this year’s regular starting line-up has held up well enough and getting them more reps should have benefits later in the season in the event of injuries, whether new or recurring. So, yeah, roll the dice one more time, Gio. Unless I'm very wrong about the overall resilience of this team, they have the quality, depth and long hippo necks to gobbble up points later.
Houston Dynamo FC v Colorado Rapids
Austin FC v Seattle Sounders
These two go together, actually, and for the exact same reason: wins for either or both home teams would set up little what ifs for all concerned - e.g., will Houston get rolling (they did make some big signings this off-season)? was the loss at Portland a hiccup for Austin? - but a pair of draws or the “bigger teams” walking out with thin wins feel like safer bets.
Table Scraps
FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC v DC United
Charlotte FC v New England Revolution
Los Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
I don’t expect neutrals to pay any mind to those first two games - but I’ll have a couple notes on Cincy below - though I can see a DC win getting people chattering. One can defend that on the rawest of numbers - i.e., three wins in four games counts as a good handful of marbles - but a limping Toronto looks like DC’s greatest challenge of so far this season, which means they haven’t graduated to the big-kid rides in my mind.
And, yeah, I put LAFC v Vancouver down here because I expect a home win and, likely as I think it is (putting it at 35-40%), I don’t think anyone will care if Charlotte beats a winded New England team. Again, having the doctor’s note in hand (aka, the CCL) buys a team a little indulgence (even if that excuse expired Wednesday night after a three-goal margin proved too small to keep the Revs in the tourney).
Sidebar on FC Cincinnati v Miami
Cincy head coach, Pat Noonan, got two steady performances and three points out of his team over their past two games. I doubt choruses of “problem solved!” ring over the rooftops in the Queen City, but a home game against another team scrapping for survival very much counts as “proof of concept” moment. On the plus side, Cincinnati has finally built a functioning, if imperfect, two-way midfield - i.e., I don’t see it outright controlling the center of the field, the strides they made in being able to flip from defense to offense without taking up too much time or pissing away the opportunity should keep the opposing midfield honest.
As for Miami, because they’ve either played equals (i.e., your weaker teams) or their betters (e.g., LAFC), I haven’t put any time into them so far this season. Based on a glance at their starting XIs, the personnel and formation from their first two games (e.g., v CHI and @ ATX) strikes me as their best, current idea for competing. The horrors Austin visited upon them aside, they appear to defend well enough - notably, LAFC only scored their two goals last week after the ref directed make-shift center back Brek Shea to the locker room - but Miami have scored only half as many goals as Cincinnati, which is to say one. Cincy’s attack, meanwhile, has looked better with each game - i.e., from obstructed looks at Austin, to Dom Badji and Brandon Vazquez finding good positions/half-chances against DC, to Vazquez coming damn close to scoring a hat-trick off some squeaky-clean looks at Orlando.
Put it all together, and this comes as close to a must-win as a team can get just four weeks into the season. Their history makes Cincinnati a very short-necked hungry hungry hippo. As such, there's no present guarantee that necked will grow, they need to bank as many marbles as they can out of their fellow Serfs.
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