Tuesday, March 15, 2022

MLS Weakly, March 15, 2022: Results from Week 3 and the MLS Class System

Again, portrait of the author.
You know what I haven’t done yet for 2022? Lay down my markers. Shit, what the hell did I stop taking?

I had opinions going in, of course, teams I expected to do well, others I expected to struggle, and a handful I expected to stare at for 30 weeks before they made any kind of sense, and probably not even then. And, yes (be a drag), the season is very young, though, if you take the 34-week season and match it against the life expectancy for the thoroughly average American (as in, we’re all in this together (for once), and it looks like 77.3 across races and genders in 2020), the MLS Season is damn-near 7-years-old in human years. Young, sure, but it’s a pretty good bet it’s wiping his/her/their own ass.

Still, you don’t judge any kid based on what she’s done by age 7 (tap dance harder, Cassidy!) and, to be clear, this post passes absolutely zero hard and fast judgments on any team in Major League Soccer. The goal here tracks with my…more or less completely unobserved understanding of how the British documentary 7 Up works (and did I even do the title right? Nope!) - i.e., I’m going to organize all the teams in MLS according to how I see at seven in human years, and continue update my thoughts/judgments as the season progresses. Also, don’t worry: I won’t post something like this every three games; it’ll be more of a slow process of picking through “the bounty” The Mothership delivers for content every week. Now, if have nothing more to work with but the fully-abbreviated (e.g., the four-plus minute jobbers) and Matt Doyle recaps, it’ll be like looking out the wrong end of a spying glass. I’ll have more to work with if/when The Mothership ramps up production the MLS in 15 videos; those at least get you in the rhythm of the game and to where you catch stray snippets from the broadcast booth, so, please, hire more interns. And pay them. It’s not like I’m asking for your first-born, Don Garber…

With all the above in mind, I’m going to use the result from MLS Weeks 1-3 to show how what passes for my process works. Now, a week before the 2022 MLS regular started, I listed all the teams that interested me at that point in time. I didn’t nail the categories - made ‘em too broad for one and didn’t control for personal eccentricities - and that goes some distance to explaining the need to fine-tune, or even correct, how I think about all the teams in MLS, and a little early in the season. Now, to reorganize every team in the league based on what I wrote in that post, and to establish more functional categories. And, for the record, I’m doing my level best here to go back to where my head was before First Kick - and I’ll add brief little notes to explain my…let’s call them WTF choices. Finally, think I’ll go with a medieval theme this season - and, yes, these are loosely ranked:

Nobility
New England Revolution (see record-setting Shield season)
New York City FC (MLS Cup winners, lotsa talent, hell to score on)
Seattle Sounders (because it’s what they do, season after fucking season)
Colorado Rapids (good bones, won the West)
Portland Timbers (built solid streaks, hosted MLS Cup; still, I worried about a transition season)

As with the real thing, it takes a lot to dislodge this bunch from their elevated station, because, even when they drop stupid points, they have a history of making that a bad memory by going on a run. It takes a village/an avalanche of fuck-ups, in other words.

Gentry
Nashville SC (closest to donning the purple, in my book)
Sporting Kansas City (finished high, but struggled to build streaks)
Los Angeles FC (they did good in the intra-MLS rebuild)
Philadelphia Union (see notes on SKC)
Red Bull New York (middling 2021, but I just sensed they rediscovered their mojo)
Atlanta United FC (see notes on RBNY)
Orlando City SC (low-balled ‘em for their history of tanking at season’s end)
Columbus Crew SC (trusted they had a bad season)
Los Angeles Galaxy (between Greg Vanney, Douglas Costa, the devil and the deep blue sea)
Minnesota United FC (dourly solid (aka, Scandinavian); go between boredom and hatred)

Teams good enough to punch some points out of the nobility, but also a good bet to get more points than they lose against the lower orders. Good-to-reasonable bets for the playoffs, even if they all can’t make it.

Free Laborers
Real Salt Lake (lotsa grit, but felt like they played above their heads, and lost Rusnak)
Vancouver Whitecaps (finished the 2021 regular season strong...then stopped)
Club du Foot Montreal (just…don’t trust them)
DC United (did a little rebuilding, but their history weighs them down)
FC Dallas (made enough moves to make me think they’d spend some time in the present)
Chicago Fire FC (compelling rebuild rebuild looked interesting)

Somewhere between not bad and not good, capable on the odd day without being capable overall.

Serfs
Toronto FC (a bad, troubled team who made one of the biggest signings in MLS history)
San Jose Earthquakes (scrappy, but pointless)
Houston Dynamo (despite their then-upgrades)
Austin FC (Year 1 was pretty bleak…)
Charlotte FC (their coach, or someone like that, shit on ‘em going in)
Inter Miami CF (when you start with an MLS 2.0 roster build…)
FC Cincinnati (three years of stabbing a fork into my fucking leg, honestly)

Teams the rest of the league looks to when they need points.

And…yeah, I think I did an all right job memory casting - and that phrasing will make more sense by the end, honest - but, now, let’s move on to a politely brief recap of MLS Week 3, which, I’m happy to report, wasn’t too shabby. Decent games, some final scores upset a potato cart or three, pretty much what your average sports fan wants in a weekend. And yet, some damnable things must be damned, and so I will. Of the 14 results, only three outright didn’t interest me (again, as with all the scores in this post, I link to The Mothership’s game summary):

Inter Miami CF 0-2 Los Angeles FC
Philadelphia Union 2-0 San Jose Earthquakes
Atlanta United FC 2-1 Charlotte FC

I called all those expected wins in the last, and probably final, review/preview I’ll post for 2022. And, no, I don’t care how each team won, or even how Charlotte scored that one goal. The three teams who lost are three teams who very likely won’t matter for some time, a euphemism that could very well mean till the end of the season, but I’m also hedging my bets, and why wouldn’t I?

The rest of Week 3’s games, on the other hand, they had hooks. Rather than try explain what that means directly, let’s tick through the Week 3 results like an open hand in cards.

New York City FC 4-1 Club du Foot Montreal
Montreal kicked their own asses in a lot of ways - e.g., a lot of mismanaging pressure - but they did struggle valiantly in the quicksand. Both teams are between things (e.g., CCL), but only one (NYCFC) ran away with it and looked good doing it.

Columbus Crew SC 2-1 Toronto FC
The whole, actual season duly acknowledged (i.e., it has not been good for them), Toronto made some good chances and punched fairly even on numbers. The implications go in both directions. Oh, and Derrick Etienne, Jr.? He was super-active. I like to mention the under-cards, or players whose name I’m hearing for the first time, because that’s how a team surprises a league.

Seattle Sounders 3-2 Los Angeles Galaxy
Looked fun, honestly. Based on glimpses and numbers, the score-line tallies: the Galaxy did all right - their first goal gutted the Sounders - but not good enough to climb over the three dumb goals they allowed.

Houston Dynamo FC 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
Fairly even, the ‘Caps scored a tidy team goal and forced Houston’s Griffin Dorsey to head a shot off the goal line, but this really was the Darwin Quintero show…not the first goal (that’s on Carrasquilla’s tab), but the second and the shot before. Then again, Quintero’s streaky, right?

DC United 0-2 Chicago Fire CF
I saw DC’s offense stiffing Bill Hamid after he kept them in the game, so that’s one side of it, but Chicago scored two pretty slick goals. And on the road. These are the ones you note…

New England Revolution 2-3 Real Salt Lake
RSL gets the nod for result of Week 3 - and that’s more about them, for me, than New England. One could argue that RSL won the game off varying degrees of garbage against a busy Revolution team, but RSL also just picked up six points against two MLS heavyweights in consecutive weeks.

FC Dallas 2-0 Nashville SC
You’d bet on Nashville for at least a draw, but credit Dallas for running Nashville’s legs off (they held a huge edge in possession) and breaking ‘em late. Again, the implications go in both directions. If not that far.

Colorado Rapids 2-0 Sporting Kansas City
It looked like Colorado cat-and-moused SKC a bit - i.e., they dared them to try and largely won the bet. They fired a couple near-misses in response, but SKC’s defense killed them with a pair of handouts.

Red Bull New York 0-1 Minnesota United FC
My wee data points tell me this played out as I expected, and whatever edge I gave to Red Bull measured only as high as home-field advantage. More importantly, about 3/4 of the way into the highlights, I thought to myself, “I bet Minnesota’s up for a scrap.” The way teams match up matters and, to climb on a li’l soapbox, I don’t think commentary covers that nearly enough.

That leaves just two match-ups from MLS Week 3, and I have longer notes on both. And, for what it’s worth, I think neutrals would find both interesting. Those are:

Orlando City SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati
Extended Notes
Short Version
Broadly, a case of Orlando applying pressure and Cincy surviving it. Still, Cincy held firm and punched back, and not where you’d expect it.

Portland Timbers 1-0 Austin FC
Extended Notes
Short Version
Not the beat-down optimists expected, but the better team played the smarter game. And that was Portland. Some games, it just takes a solid 90 and a couple good moments.

Now, here’s where I update my markers on every team in MLS, sort of reorient based on the few games played so far. Just so it’s clear what I’m doing, I copy/pasted the medieval-themed categories above below this paragraph and updated it based on the results so far - and, to spare readers from having to open The Results-Geek Bible, aka, the MLS Form Guide. To clarify, I listed each team’s results for 2022 after their respective names, only with scores written to match the result - i.e., if they won, you’ll see the bigger number first, regardless of venue, while the second number being larger means they lost.

With that, here is your updated medieval-themed MLS Class System. With notes:

Nobility
New England Revolution (2-2 @ POR; 1-0 v FCD; 2-3 v RSL)
Not a great start, but they get a pass because 2021 and the CCL

New York City FC (0-1 @ LAG; 0-0 @ VAN; 4-1 v MTL)
See notes on New England.

Seattle Sounders (0-1 v NSH; 0-1 @ RSL; 3-2 v LAG)
See notes on New England; also, they often start slow and it rarely matters And I hate them.

Colorado Rapids (0-3 @ LAFC; 3-0 v ATL; 2-0 v SKC)
Best start of this bunch, obviously, and dropping out of the CCL probably didn't hurt.

Portland Timbers (2-2 v NE; 1-1 @ LAFC; 1-0 v ATX)
Decent results against good teams, despite the usual early-season injury shit...but they bear more watching than I'd like.

Gentry
Nashville SC (1-0 @ SEA; 1-1 @ MIN; 0-2 @ FCD)
Just when you think they might buy their way into the nobility in fine arriviste style, they tank at Dallas.

Los Angeles FC (3-0 v COL; 1-1 v POR; 2-0 @ MIA)
The likeliest candidate to don the purple, but weak(ish) teams in favorable circumstances, etc.

Philadelphia Union (1-1 v MIN; 2-1 @ MTL; 2-0 v SJ)
See notes on LAFC.

Red Bull New York (3-1 @ SJ; 4-1 @ TFC; 0-1 v MIN)
See notes on Nashville, only replace Dallas away with Minnesota at home.

Atlanta United FC (3-1 v SKC; 0-3 @ COL; 2-1 v CLT)
Those results ain’t bad. Keeping an eye on them. That is all.

Orlando City SC (2-0 v MTL; 0-0 @ CHI; 1-2 v CIN)
The sum of it looks worse when you throw in Montreal playing in the CCL.

Columbus Crew SC (4-0 v VAN, 3-3 @ SJ, 2-1 v TFC)
Another team to watch. Their turn-around looks plausible, despite the shit goal they gave up.

Los Angeles Galaxy (1-0 v NYC; 1-0 @ CLT; 2-3 @ SEA)
And…another team to watch. Even with the CCL, that’s a lotta schedule.

Minnesota United FC (1-1 @ PHI; 1-1 v NSH; 1-0 @ RBNY)
See notes on LA Galaxy.

Real Salt Lake (0-0 @ HOU; 1-0 v SEA; 3-2 @ NE)
Opponents knee-to-balls-deep in the CCL notwithstanding, I’d call those six free points. Exceeding expectations is how one rises.

Free Laborers
Sporting Kansas City (1-3 @ ATL; 1-0 v HOU; 0-2 @ COL)
I, like you, see the @’s in two of those games, but I also see an out-of-sorts team in a stale system.

DC United (3-0 v CLT; 1-0 @ CIN; 0-2 v CHI)
On the watch-list, in pen, after losing to Chicago and getting lucky against Cincy.

FC Dallas (1-1 v TFC; 0-1 @ NE; 2-0 v NSH)
A good start from a team that needs more than a good start. Taking points off other teams - good ones, especially - is a great start.

Chicago Fire FC (0-0 @ MIA; 0-0 v ORL; 2-0 @ DC)
Good start for a team that, well…sucked in 2021. Also, on the watch-list.

Serfs
Club du Foot Montreal (0-2 @ ORL; 1-2 v PHI; 1-4 @ NYC)
I know. The CCL. I get it. But, no matter how well I think they play, zero points is zero points.

Vancouver Whitecaps (0-4 @ CLB; 0-0 v NYC; 1-2 @ HOU)
Even a draw at Houston would have kept them higher, but, alas…

Toronto FC (1-1 @ FCD; 1-4 v RBNY; 1-2 @ CLB)
Things don’t look better yet.

San Jose Earthquakes (1-3 v RBNY; 3-3 v CLB; 0-2 @ PHI)
Another case of getting on the wrong end of a very stiff schedule…but don’t schedules always look stiff for shaky teams?

Houston Dynamo (0-0 v RSL; 0-1 @ SKC; 2-1 v VAN)
Decent start for one of 2021’s worst, and they’ve got reinforcements coming.

Austin FC (5-0 v CIN; 5-1 v MIA; 0-1 @ POR)
Fucking insane start, obviously, but they’re parked till I get a larger sample size.

Charlotte FC (0-3 @ DC, 0-1 v LAG; 1-2 @ ATL)
One of two entirely defeated teams for the 2022 season. Matching coach’s expectations so far…

Inter Miami CF (0-0 v CHI; 1-5 @ ATX; 0-2 v LAFC)
Still bad.

FC Cincinnati (0-5 @ ATX; 0-1 v DC; 2-1 @ ORL)
That’s two promising games in a row, but this team has flattered to/and deceived before.

And…yeah, that’s how I see every team in the league so far.

In future Weakly posts, I expect to reviews not all the results, only the ones that strike me as interesting. And I'll close out those posts by, 1) re-posting the Medieval Class System and with teams moved around accordingly; and 2) a list of teams on the watch-list to go up or down with some notes on what makes me think they're marching toward Heaven or Hades.

That’s it. Till the preview post…

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