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| Yes, that is Wilfred Nancy. |
Full disclosure, I haven’t spent much time on Columbus Crew SC this season. Didn’t see the point. They’ve been getting results…until recently (but they also got arguably the biggest result) and the roster remains…stacked. At any rate, I have done some scouting and here is my report.
Some Basics
Columbus currently sits at fourth in the Eastern Conference (7th overall, fwiw) on 13 points and a 3-1-4 record. They remain stoutly unbeaten at home (3-0-1) and stubborn on the road (0-1-3; also, the loss at Charlotte FC has been dismissed as, in a word, bullshit) and boast one of the deepest and, currently, healthiest top-to-bottom roster in MLS and, in Wilfred Nancy, they have a head coach that gets the neutrals drooling. One can’t really blame the local fans for being content to the point of cockiness…and yet there are some questions.
They’re winless over the past four league games and arguably dropping points when they shouldn’t e.g., at Charlotte (loss), at a badly-hurting Nashville SC (a draw), and, insofar as you buy them, v DC United (draw). If you dig in a little deeper, you see a fall-off from 2023’s killer attacking pace of 1.97 goals/game; with just 10 goals scored in league play all season, they’re puttering around at 1.25 goals/game and, if you hit the link about contentment above, you’ll see creeping concerns that things ain’t the same without Cucho Hernandez. Then again, most signs point to him returning to the lineup after a wee suspension for some kind of tomfoolery.
The Lineup(s)
Unless I’m mistaken, Nancy has yet to deviate from a 3-4-2-1 formation, even when he rotates the squad dizzy as he did last week at Real Salt Lake. Were I a betting man – which I’m not, on the grounds that me putting money on anything means the opposite will happen – I’d expect Columbus to play the same lineup they did for their March 10 game against Chicago.
The Personnel
Columbus fans are stoned in love with their starting ‘keeper, Patrick Schulte – who’s heroics at Tigres in the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup only deepened the swoon. He’s just part of the reason Columbus gives up less than a goal/game, while the other three include some combination of Matle Amundsen, Rudy Camacho, Yevhen Cheberko (who impressed the locals in the home draw v DC), plug-‘n’-play king Sean Zadawski, and Steven Moreira. Darlington (WHY DID YOU LEAVE?!?) Nagbe and Aidan Morris line up immediately in front of the back three, forming a highly-effective two-way midfield, with Maximilian Arfsten on the right and Yaw Yeboah on the left. Diego Rossi and Marino Hinestroza generally occupy the “2,” but Timbers fans may remember Alexandru Matan (who filled in for the RSL game), and that just leaves Cucho up top, like a big, red, menacing cherry.
As argued in an Apple TV preview…that ignored the Timbers entirely (and why is Calen Carr so wound up? why is there no separate link to this, you stinking buttholes?), Nancy has established a system that works a little better when he has his starters available, but that works well enough when he doesn’t…I mean, at some point I have to wonder whether I’m building Columbus up, so that Timbers fans will feel like kings if Portland knocks ‘em down.
The Review
I poked around some other places – e.g., a decent stretch of last week’s goal-less draw at RSL (in which Morris tore it up) and the highlights from the 2-2 draw at Nashville – but I put most of my time/energy into the March 10 win over Chicago. For anyone feeling chafed at the comparison, just consider that Chicago has exactly as many points as Portland and ask how much the Timbers play like either DC or Red Bull New York. (Whether you’d like them to, and I’ve heard whispers about this, the Timbers do not.)
Besides a vague sense of “Columbus is good,” a few details stood out. The Crew defended fairly high and aggressively and that played out as it often does – i.e., it forced turnovers in helpful places, while also leaving space behind the defense that Chicago exploited more than once (and that the Fire’s expensive import, Hugo Cuypers, should have done better with). Honestly, Chicago gave as good as they got to the end, though that could have just as much to do with early season form, a brutal schedule for Columbus, and Chicago playing with an unfamiliar...my god, was that belief? On the more worrying side, Columbus repeatedly pinned the Fire into their defensive half and just went at them for a full minute at a time. I would share more precise descriptors and details if I had them, but the whole thing boiled down to Columbus swinging from both sides, as well as the middle with the infamous third hand. The biggest surprise from the whole game came with back-up forward Jacen Russell-Rowe throwing in with the biggest offensive contributions, i.e., a goal (from range, something to mind) plus an assist on the winner. How hard some Crew fans sniff at Russell-Rowe – and Rossi, for that matter - hints at how spoiled for options they feel. Per the numbers above, that hasn’t made the goals rain so far, but the general vibe has the feel of probing for weaknesses.
And yet I’ll do my best to sharpen the above with…
Talking Points/Loose Theories
1) Don’t Waste Time Looking for Weaknesses in the Starting XI
Unless Columbus repeats the JV experiment they tried at RSL, assume the Timbers have a damned steep hill to climb - and even then I wouldn't relax. Two examples make the point: 1) I’ve seen Zadawski play all over the back-line and, against RSL, in the midfield next to Morris, but have yet to see him put a foot far wrong; 2) Yeboah has probably had a stronger season than Rossi, but raise your hand if you’ve heard his name.
2) Expect Another Long Night for Mosquera
If Yeboah starts, he presents as a very strong 1-v-1 attacker, whether in tight spaces or getting after a fullback defending on an island. Rossi, meanwhile, strikes me as someone Nancy likes to use as a weak-side vertical threat. All of that is going to go up Columbus’ right, therefore Portland’s right, therefore at Mosquera. Like most people I was encouraged by his game against LAFC, so here’s to more of it.
3) Fear of a Lack of Foot-Speed
Cucho moves around a lot. He roams all over the attacking third looking for combination, he can shoot from range and he excels at attacking headers dropped (or strung on a damn rope) into the area. All that together poses a collective challenge for not just the Timbers’ starting CB pairing, but for the two defensive midfielders who line up in front of them – and I feel pretty strongly about have a two d-mid lineup.
4) The Midfield
Kick me all you want, I simply don’t believe Portland has the players to match Morris and Nagbe, especially not in the open field, or in a genuinely two-way game. Here, I’m most concerned about Morris’ and Nagbe’s ability to get the ball going against the Timbers in the blink of an eye.
As for what the Timbers do about all that:
1) Patience, Grasshopper, Even If It Means Running Out the Clock
The Timbers should make Columbus beat them. Period. Get into that bunker/counter mentality, if without crawling too deep into the bunker (seriously, I’d love to see more aggression from Portland defensively). I say let the Crew chase the game and fuck ‘em up for trying. Related…
2) Exploit High Defensive Line
If I had to name the player I’d like to see loitering near Columbus’ back-line when Portland’s out of possession, I’d go with Antony. Here, I care less about who Phil Neville goes with than seeing him do it – and I mean to the point of a demand.
3) Another Potential Exploit
Something else I saw when Columbus pressed, when the midfielder release to pressure play out of the back, the back-line stays somewhat deep. That opens a fairly wide pocket of space between their midfield and defense, a great place for Felipe Mora to receive the ball or, better still, for Evander to lurk in search of forward positions that give him some time to think.
4) Win the Midfield Battle by Not Fighting It
I’d free Evander of virtually all defensive responsibilities and just leave him free to cook. Let Diego Chara and….take your pick – Eryk Williamson, Cristhian Paredes, David Ayala, etc. – keep things stable at the back, while looking for the best ways to spring the counter.
I can see people reading an argument to play for a draw in there, but I prefer to see it as looking to steal a win. If the Timbers can take the game to Columbus the same way Chicago did, hats off, and, please do impress me (srsly, pull this off and I’ll buy a round). Between Columbus’ general approach (yeah, they even attempted it at RSL) and what I’ve seen from the Timbers, I struggle to see the game playing like that. Still, holding on to hope they can do better than survive feels reasonably and that’s what I’m watching to see. We’ll know more by round about 6:40 p.m. Saturday.
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