Austin FC Scouting Report: On the Undead and Shitty Committees

Give it to me straight, doc...

It’s nice to be back, feeling like I have the space to let my mind wander. I’ll seek not to abuse the privilege. Oh, and all of this is based on memory, 75+ additional minutes of review and poking around some (real, real) basic stats.

Record/Stats: 9-13-9, 36 pts., 34 gf, 44 ga (-10); home 6-5-5 away 3-8-4, 11th West, 21st overall
Last 10: LWLLTWLLTL
Venue: AHHAHAHAAH (again, not laughing, H=home, A=away)
Remaining Games: @ POR, @ LAG, v COL

First and foremost, yes, mathematical probability is the only thing keeping Austin FC from their due terminal diagnosis. They’re dead in all but name, obviously, but spectator sports count among the rare places where zombies can harm the living. So, shoot the fuckers in the head, yeah?

The (Largely Regular) Lineup
Austin’s head coach, Josh Wolff, has trotted out at least three different formations in recent weeks – 4-3-3, 4-4-2, hell, the man even made a pass at a 4-2-3-1; then again, what else does a coach do but tinker through a 2-6-2 run? – but it’s also a lot of plugging the same dudes into a different shape (for reference, the lineups reviewed go back to the game at Nashville in late August). Guilherme Biro and Mikkel Desler have been constants at fullback, Brendan Hines-Ike has anchored most of the defenses with either Julio Cascante (hi, Julio!) or Matt Hedges at his side. Alex Ring (always) patrols midfield in front of them, with Daniel Pereira the most frequent Batman to his Robin, though (coach’s son) Owen Wolff occasionally spells him. Sebastian Driussi still steers Wolff’s (ahem) attack and mostly toward a semi-stable combination of Jader Obrian and, since he joined, Osman Bukari, but you also see Diego Rubio and, in the briefest of glimpses, Gyasi Zardes (what a signing). Driussi gets a little attacking support from Jon Gallagher, mostly through crosses (he floats wide). It’s a couple cameos from there. The end.

It's a lot of this.

How They Work (Probably?)
The answer to the question who actually leads the line (defined….?) has tended to fall Obrian and Bukari, both more wingers than forwards; Rubio and Zardes got the odd start – and I worry more about Rubio than Zardes (combines better, hustles more, better fit for winger set up(?)). I’d call balls down the wing and into channels the favored approach - e.g., stretching vertically through Obrian and Bukari, or even Ethan Finlay – a detail/theory that arguably explains how Ring and Pereira (and Owen Wolff and Obrian) are Austin’s assist leaders (counter-point: Ring takes their corners). Ring and [Other Guy] cover enough ground to cover an Austin defense that, for what I’ve seen, leans conservative. Both fullbacks join the attack, but more in support than menace, in the 60+ minutes of footage I watched and Hines-Ike and [Other Guy] wed average. On the whole, Austin looks like a team still working on that first, crucial step of not losing games, an impression/theory that fits curiously with Austin’s ‘keeper, Brad Stuver, holding down the league-lead for saves at 126. (As noted in a reddit post that, like most of the ones I post, was met with mild interest and limited comments; Maxime Crepeau and James Pantemis have 89 saves between them and in about as many minutes.) Austin is a team that defends well and/or to the last man, but also one that billows the back of the net (i.e., scores) barely over once per game, aka, at maintenance sex levels in a relationship that, depending on age, is barely holding on.

I laced most of the details I consider important into the above, but to flag a couple more:

1) Scoring by (Shitty) Committee
If you remember Driussi as a player in the MVP convo, you’re stuck in 2022 (when he had a very good season). With the Argentine posting supporting role numbers - despite nearly 2,000 minutes played, Driussi has just five goals and two assists – Austin remains a team in search of a leading man. The player they have instead is Obrian, i.e., someone who posts “supporting role” numbers every season. I would have put money on Gallagher having more than three goals and three assists, but that just underscores the state of things. The answer to the question, who scores for Austin? Whichever player happens to do it.

2) X Factor?
I tend to worry about players I don’t know, especially ones signed with any kind of expectation attached to them (e.g., designated players). Based on what I’ve seen, Wolff, et al, haven’t figured him out yet. Nothing necessarily points to that happening tomorrow night, but fingers crossed that it takes Wolff, et al, until the weekend to get there.

What the Timbers Do About It
Austin has just enough talent to punish a mistake (see here v LAFC), which recommends the Timbers approach what presents as a likely win with some healthy caution. That said, I don’t think Austin has the chops, attacking or otherwise, to take the game to Portland. I suspect they’re playing for pride at this point, basically, and I’m betting that translates to taking what looks like the surest, safest path to three points and/or ruining another team's season. For as much as they like to stretch the field, Austin typically hangs around 50% in possession (think the low-40s is lowest I’ve seen them go), which opens the possibility of getting some good transition moments if they commit enough players forward. While those moments will come, I’m guessing Portland (or just Evander) will need to break through some clutter to get good looks. Even as I believe Portland can pull back any goal, I’d rather see them moot the problem by not giving up the first goal - hence the "healthy caution" - and if I had to name the biggest risk there, I’d go with corners (of all things).

That’s it. We’ll see how it plays out tomorrow night. Till tomorrow night’s late and, likely, very short post…