Portland Timbers 0-0 FC Dallas, aka, The Sum of Our Greatest Fears in 48 Minutes

Oh, it's coming, champ.

A should-win on Wednesday versus Austin FC that ended in a loss, followed by a must-win late this afternoon versus FC Dallas that ended in a gutless, goal-less, leg-less draw. Ye gods, egads, etc.

First question: how to put a bow on that much nothing?

Second question: when was the last time (verb tense entirely deliberate, btw) you could either believe or talk yourself into thinking that the Portland Timbers have a chance to end their season on the highest-possible high? Don’t know what that was for you, but for me it was a playoff (or play-in) win and a dream of bigger things (no matter how implausible)?

I was somewhat optimistic, personally, even through the loss versus Austin. That optimism took a square shot to the stones tonight and I can name the moment the blow landed: somewhere around two minutes after Felipe Mora’s best shot of the day, aka, the 48th minute or thereabouts. To that point in through both games, Portland had a firm handle on the game-states. They weren't scoring, sure...and, okay, Austin snuck one past them, but the Timbers were still doing good, productive, proactive things all over the field. And then even that dried up. If one accepts the conventional wisdom that Portland can't defend a lead, they need to be the team that outscores all comers. Instead, they've now gone 230 minutes without scoring. Closer to the point at hand, Dallas took over the game after that last best shot and that’s how they tagged ‘em both (both balls, I mean, paraphrasing Kingpin).

The Very Basics, aka, the (Perversely Happy) Flashbacks to the Austin Loss
Much like last Wednesday versus Austin, the Timbers rolled up the chances versus Dallas from around the 17th minute to the 39th. Mora blew at least two chances before steering his best chance wide, Jonathan Rodriguez almost caromed home a header off an Evander free-kick at the 22nd minute, and Evander tried everything up to and including (repeatedly) trying to salsa his way through the middle of Dallas’ defense. Both Juan David Mosquera and Santiago Moreno flailed some shots wide – one of them a hopeful bicycle attempt (Moreno’s) off one of Portland’s best flurries of night – but, for a second week running, the Timbers’ shot selection looked more desperate than wise or good. Finishing and finished product aside, the signs looked all right over the first half: the Timbers won every 50/50, not to mention most of the 40/60s, and they recycled the ball into Dallas’ end of the field over-and-over. Seeing a functioning recycling program felt good, guys…

All that melted away once Dallas started defending higher at the beginning of the second half. Their version of a press kicked in somewhere around the 50th minute, a tactical choice that broke the general pattern of two teams playing forward into midfield and then playing to runners in the wide(r) spaces to stretch the field (for me, wish granted, then proved irrelevant). It had the practical effect of forcing Portland to attempt the same basic approach, only with Kamal Miller or Dario Zuparic playing the ball to those vertical runs instead of David Ayala or even Diego Chara. With the aerial game (e.g., balls over the top) smothered, Dallas defense could clean up 75% of the rest by stepping aggressively to any player receiving the ball with his back to goal (See No. 1 below). Bottom line, the Timbers got buried in their own end, couldn’t find productive outlet passes, so they generally started prioritizing safety over control…

…and that’s the real kicker in the johnson on this loss: Portland lost control of a home game today, something that, with the attack, has cashed in all the Saving Grace this team has any right to expect this season. Worse, they did it against FC Dallas, a team that is tied with Sporting Kansas City for second for fewest points earned on the road in all of MLS in 2024. The Timbers added the “5” to their 1-10-5 road record, which matters...

Is this Heaven, mama?

Because the Math Looks Like Shit
Portland’s failure to get a win tonight officially puts Minnesota United FC beyond their reach (can’t catch ‘em on the first tie-breaker, games won; scroll way down), so it’s winning the play-in or bust for them this season. The Vancouver Whitecaps need three points between their last two games (v LAFC, @ RSL, aka, not easy) to earn the privilege of hosting the play-in game, while Portland has to win at Seattle Sounders on Decision Day to do anything but limp into some other team’s stadium and hope they can defend well enough to out-score them on the road. Even after two nights/230 minutes of inglorious failure, Portland pulling that off exists within the normal realms of possibility, but I don’t think any Timbers fan would call that good, never mind ideal. One point from two home games against non-playoff teams, and don't you fucking dare even start to form the word "Texas.". At any rate, …shit. Just…shit.

Beating the Sounders on Decision Day would taste sweet and creamy as a cheesecake flight at the Cheesecake Factory...do they even do those? If not, is this still even America? Also, and before I lose track of the thought...

Quick Quiz
Which team would you rather play, Minnesota or Vancouver?

At any rate, I’m going to close on talking points, but to put a bow on tonight’s performance, it felt oddly like the latter Gio seasons. Some of that follows from what feels like the 100th proof for the fixed, unchanging reality that the Timbers can only score in transition - i.e., when there’s space and, crucially, in the right spaces on the field, to where Portland gets a clean line/look on goal. When that failed tonight, the next best idea boiled down to passing the ball to Evander and hoping for the best. When he tried to make “the best” happen, by working give-and-goes in the soccer equivalent of the square footage Liechtenstein, the fact that didn’t pan out should surprise no one. What Timbers fans have seen over the past two, maybe three games, is a reminder of what this team looks like when it runs out of ideas. Of which, great timing…

That’s all the damnation I have in me. Time to close with…talking points!

1) How the Game Turned, and Why It Matters
Both Evander and Moreno found a way to receive the ball and do something with it throughout the first half. That simple ability to receive and play the ball forward gave the Timbers the upper hand over the first and, golly, did that evaporate over the second half. If I had to guess at the loose theory behind Dallas’ press, I’d go with keeping the ball from Ayala and Diego Chara or, more precisely, keeping it out of the middle third of the field on Portland’s side of the center stripe. Taking away that space (Moreno used it too) reduced the Timbers to playing hopeful balls in the vague direction of one of their forward players, or just getting it the flaming fuck away from danger. Again, the Timbers lost control of the second half against a crap road team. Concerning…

2) Fuck It, Why Not?
James Pantemis had a good night, up to and including his flashy, one-arm save (start watching around 4:25 of the full highlights) and, barring potential locker-room politics politics, I’d give Pantemis the start through the end of 2024. I mean, the defense sucks, so why not change the easiest single thing you can and see what happens? It’s not like Pantemis has been a disaster.

3) Jona’s Bad Habit (& How to Address It?)
Yeah, yeah, "disaster" oversells it, but more often than I’d like to see, Rodriguez receives the ball wide, or in the right-side channel, and cuts the ball inside to tee up a shot with his right foot. If it ever worked (think he’s got…what? two goals like that in 2024?), that move/shot stopped working a while ago – and yet I still see it, and often. I don’t want to see Neville hit Rodriguez with a cease-and-desist, but I would love to see him think about how to provide Rodriguez smart options when he does cut inside, because the man does make an opening, and with an ever-present risk of firing on goal. Basically, the man makes an opening, so why not think about how to make something out of it? Related…

4) Mosquera’s Choice Selection
Mosquera’s a young player, so hold that in your head as you take this in: his choices aren’t great and the quality of his service needs enough work to where I think Timbers fans will see him for a couple seasons minimum. He has the physical tools, blah, blah, blah, and he has respectable bare stats for a fullback, and yet…

…his best moments feel like accidents against the balance of what I see from him on the field. And that’s on the attacking end of the game, i.e., the place people (not unreasonably) point to as the upside that compensates for Mosquera’s shortcomings as a defender. As I see it, Mosquera doesn’t consistently deliver the good pass, but his greater fault follows from his inability to see the pass beyond the obvious one. In the here and now, all his motivations point toward playing that obvious ball and hoping he fucking kills it and, that hasn’t been great, but 1) he has time to work on it, and 2) do the Timbers have a better option for that position? Here’s to hoping he comes along, basically, and hope you stick around for a couple if/when you come good.

5) A Final Nerve to Itch
Did anyone get any jass out of tonight’s substitutions for Portland? This sets aside the question of who subbed for who and the timing thereof. Do you think any of the subs/adjustments made a difference tonight and, aren’t you terribly concerned that they didn’t?

That’s it for this post. I should have something vague this midweek, along with a preview/panic post about the Timbers Decision Day Duel against Seattle. I mean, after these past two “results,” how hot would a loss at Seattle sting?

Use it as motivation, my darlings. Till then…