Thoughts from the Meat in a Seattle and Vancouver Sandwich, aka, a Portland Timbers Review/Preview

The state of play, in blues legend form.

I think of the Portland Timbers 1-1 road draw at the Seattle Sounders in terms of finding the proper balance between love and hate. Some markers are obvious – e.g., they gave up the inevitable soft goal (this one came with a pillow-top); against that they got a bold, dare I say spicy, goal from a source (Antony) that wasn’t the big three (Evander, Felipe Mora, and Jonathan Rodriguez).

All kinds of things fall into the space between those two poles, including the way Seattle took all the game the Timbers gave them (a lot), all the shots that resulted therefrom (could have been 1-2, even 1-4 against Portland), but for Portland’s James Pantemis rising to every occasion save the one. Moreover, the draw extended the Timbers’ lease in Seattle’s collective heads. The latter might not matter at all in the big picture, but it is really, really funny in the smaller one.

The rest of this post comes in two parts, the first looking back to the Saturday’s _______ game (still working on the adjective that fits it best), the second looking ahead to Wednesday’s big, big play-in against the Vancouver Whitecaps. Courtesy of motorsports, the lingering effects of Major League Soccer’s second-tier status in the North American landscape, the Timbers get to host that one despite the ninth-place seed. I think every Timbers fan knows that by now, but the thought still brightens my face with a mirthful smile two days later.

Sorry for the delay on this going up to anyone who noticed, but I had a family reunion this weekend and it was welcome and very nice.

The Rope-a-Dope That Ropes the Dope Every Time
I’ll start by reading some more old news into the record: Portland drawing Seattle – again, this is in Seattle – resulted in the Sounders dropping to fourth place (which puts them into a playoff series against Houston Dynamo FC…but is that actually better than facing Minnesota United FC?), missing an automatic berth in to the CONACAF Champions’ League, handing the Cascadia Cup to the Timbers in their own house, and losing Obed Vargas for the first game of their three-game series against Houston. Honestly, I don’t know how Timbers fans continue to breathe through all the laughter...

With the game itself stale by now, I’m going to lean into talking points after a real quick summary. For the record, I did circle back to rewatch some portions of this game (e.g., the time before Seattle’s goal and the time before Portland’s to Obed Vargas’ (ha HA!) sending off; somewhere in here, surely) because I wasn’t giving this my wholehearted attention on Saturday. Digging in…

At you, never with you.

A Summary
The first half slipped away from the Timbers by degrees – particularly with Paul Rothrock camping wide right opening more space for Seattle’s ever-improving passing – until the Sounders scored on a set-piece and thanks to some…unfortunate marking (see below). The home team piled the pressure still higher over the opening 20-25 minutes of the second half, leaving Portland operating in survival mode…until two plays utterly changed the game. First, Eryk Williamson poked the ball away in midfield, Jonathan Rodriguez pushed the turnover to Evander, who found Antony isolated on Seattle’s left against Nouhou. Antony left one defender (Nouhou) in the dust and another (Jackson Ragen) on his ass before tucking home an equalizer that looked more controlled than it did at first blush.

And then the theretofore quite good Vargas got sent off for, frankly, some bullshit (see, "somewhere in here", surely). The ref didn’t quite favor Portland (even if I’m still trying to figure out how Cristhian Paredes avoided a yellow), but, in an apparent attempt to prove he wasn’t a homer, he applied a stricter reading of the rulebook when calling Seattle. Call it the law of averages, call it the long arc of bad officiating, Portland got a little back on some of the crap calls that burned them earlier this season. And, to be clear, the ref screwing Seattle? Also funny!

At any rate, the Timbers put one of its two shots on goal in the back of the net at the 68th minute and the game limped along from there, without so much of a hint of Broadway magic to rescue it. It’s on to some talking points from here, most of them kicked around with one eye on Wednesday’s play-in. In the order they stood out, whether chronologically or in significance as seen through my jaundiced eye.

Talking Points
1) A Defensive Approach?
Without knowing whether it was either intentional or necessary - because I’m terrible about confirming that kind of thing – this section treats the choice to start Paredes and Diego Chara at the two in the Timbers’ 4-2-3-1 as a case-study that answers the question, did it work? Without crapping on either player, and with respect to some genuinely nice interplay/rotation with the backline, I’m going with no and hoping Phil Neville doesn’t attempt this Wednesday for any reason but actual necessity. Whether by disposition or game-state, both players sunk deeper against the defense with each passing minute, thereby ceding the midfield and initiative to the Sounders. Again, it took a little luck and tall shot of Pantemis to keep this from turning into a rout. Speaking of passing….

2) It Was Fucking Terrible
To continue a thread in the above, pairing Chara and Paredes at the two gives you passing out of that position that tops out at adequate with fits of good. In fact, when it came to egregious mis-hits, Paredes stood out. Would that he were alone. Despite the lies posted in the official numbers, multiple Portland players forced passes, mishit them when they did, and generally made bad, even perverse decisions when they need to kickstart the attack. Even when the ball got high, Felipe Mora layoffs hung up or drifted off target, I barely saw Rodriguez (though he did get Portland’s lone, late yellow card for throwing a fit at the ref…dammit, it’s still funny); not even Evander could find the right pass. He did it the one time he had to, thank gods and what might have been an out-of-body moment by Antony, but, in terms of thought, execution and everything in between, Portland simply has to pass better, smarter, faster on Wednesday night.

3) Antony & the Big Guns Going Silent
Rodriguez hasn’t scored since…hey, the last game against Vancouver (September 28, away; he’s due?); Evander last scored the week before at Real Salt Lake, and Mora last scored the week before that versus the Los Angeles Galaxy: again, thank gods for The Possession of St. Antony. Because that’s six, five, and four games ago (in reverse order) for those three key players. I don’t want to make too much of this…but I’m also still not clocking why it’s happening, therefore…concerned. For all the good things Seattle did defensively – they in-fill and pressure really well – I still feel like the Timbers got in their own way half as often as Seattle did. Portland created ample chances versus Austin FC and FC Dallas – 45 across both games, 18 on goal – so the looks were there, but the finishing…pffff. At any rate, this strikes me as notable. Also of note…

Famously not hard to find.

4) Surman’s Debut/Where’s Yeimar?
With zero intention of crapping on Finn Surman – not least because the young man (just 21!) generally coped well with getting thrown into the deep end for his first start/minutes of the whole damn season and, oh-la-la, that first-half tackle of Pedro de la Vega – he lost Yeimar twice on set pieces and in the same, unsettling way both times. Whether it was because he lost track of the rotation, or because he just expected him to do something better, Surman was the key man missing for two wide-open headers by Yeimar from the heart of the area; there was no pick to keep him away and Yeimar barely moved six feet, and yet. One of them went in, the second did not. In a better, brighter world, that would count as an isolated event for the Portland Timbers. For the 2024 Portland Timbers, that just means Surman fits in well with the existing system.

5) My Personal Standout
Juan David Mosquera. He has had many better games on the attacking side of the ball, but, unless he strayed widely from Neville’s game-plan, Mosquera was called to pinch well inside to support the Timbers’ general scheme of denying short passes (maybe thwart Seattle overloads?), a responsibility that repeatedly left him…10, maybe 15 yards away from Rothrock lurking on Seattle’s left. With the exception of the one time he fell on his bottom, Mosquera shouldered his wide-ranging defensive jurisdiction well, even admirably. His discipline and awareness was solid, even when Seattle tried to catch him out from the opposite side. I'll be curious to see if/how this plays into how Phil lines 'em up in Vancouver.

That’s enough about the past. It’s move on to applying some, or maybe just the applicable lessons from the above.

On Climbing Mt. Whistler: How to Deal with Vancouver? Again
1) How High Is It?
If Portland is stumbling, the ‘Caps are slumping. Vancouver is winless over seven, admittedly tough games - @ HOU, @ LAG, v POR, v SEA, v MIN, v LAFC, @ RSL - but that still begs the question, how does making the playoffs feel after a seven-game streak that strongly suggests that you can’t beat a playoff team, at home or away? Worse (for them), their attacking dried up right around the same time their defense opened up: Vancouver has scored just six goals over those past seven games, while allowing 14. And then Fafa Picault went and skied a penalty kick at RSL (in here somewhere, surely), one that would have put then 1-0 up before Ryan Gauld did with a pin-point put-back on a recycled corner, like, 15 minutes plus halftime later. With that…

2) A Very Brief Scouting Report aka, How Did They Go Ahead and Still Lose?
Because I’ve seen my share of Whitecaps games this season (six, maybe seven?), I only watched 30-35 minutes of their away loss at Real Salt Lake, but that was enough to see some familiar things – e.g., some smart execution in the passing and a general feeling of poise and control for them, if one that unravels in an instant. Something I didn’t see over that stretch: Vancouver pressing, or even defending high. Back to what I did see, a lot of the credit for this latest unraveling goes to Braian Ojeda and Diego Luna, because they both just killed it, with Ojeda as the standout - and, just to note it, the Timbers players with similar/better skillsets in David Ayala and Evander (but do you want to push him to the same side as Rodriguez?) – but that pattern of illusory control definitely rang a bell as I watched Vancouver last night. For what it’s worth, I’d argue the Timbers play on the opposite side of that dynamic – e.g., looking half-panicked before putting two goals past the opposition's ‘keeper - and keeping a handle on how the game looks versus how it is strikes me as a smart approach to expectations management. Moreover, and even if they deserved it (yeah), fairness requires that I mention that RSL won the game on a mistake/own-goal (aka, The Big One) by Vancouver’s back-up goalkeeper, Isaac Boehmer. Almost certainly related…

3) Did Vanny Sartini Rest the Cavalry?
Gauld, Andres Cubas, Pedro Vite, Ali Ahmed and Ryan Raposo all started Decision Day on the bench. With absolutely nothing to play for – heads, tails, win, lose or draw, Wednesday was always at Portland – you have to think Sartini rested some, if not all of those players. Hell, even Yohei Takaoka started on the bench. I know Gauld has missed a few with minor injury issues and appreciate Sartini’s still searching for the right look for the Big Dance, but, whatever you think of them, Sartini has plenty of options for throwing wrinkles and even curves at the Timbers. Not a lot of top-rate options, mind you, but options nonetheless. It's gonna be more marathon than sprint when it comes to collective awareness Wednesday night.

4) What I Actually Expect/Hope to See
Vancouver gets 10-15 shots more or less every game, so I expect they’ll get the same on Wednesday, and history suggests they’ll put between four and six of those on-frame. At least some of those shots will be better if/when Gauld plays, but nothing points to a wild burst of offensive output from Vancouver. The not-unreasonable assumption that Vancouver will manage one goal puts the onus on the strength that carried the Timbers to its towering ninth-place finish [REGGAETON HORNS!!], the attack. With that in mind, I hope Neville rested either/both Williamson and/or Ayala precisely to get some fresh legs and ideas behind that first ball into the attacking third. No disrespect to Surman, but, assuming he’s healthy, available, and not suspended, I’d prefer to see Miguel Araujo start over everyone else next to Dario Zuparic; if he's all there is, I'm already cheering for and/or believing in him. I don’t see a need to tinker with the front three, but I do hope that Neville gives Mosquera fewer defensive responsibilities and that Rodriguez can make something out of the space around/behind Sartini’s (generally) preferred back three, even if to open up space for Evander and Mora to operate centrally.

To be clear as to what I’m manifesting, I dream of Portland scoring early (and Jeanie, Jeanie with the light brown hair) and then running up the score on a series of heartbreaking, ass-tearing counters. If Vancouver has either the self-belief or firepower to win on Wednesday, I’ll be simultaneously impressed and depressed, but mostly depressed. Between playing at home, the thin advantage in recent form, and a goal-differential’s edge in the season series (with two of those games at Vancouver), this looks like another game the Timbers both have to win – i.e., they need to attack – and should win.

I’ll circle back two days from tonight, in the throes of victory or the agony of defeat. Till then…