Level Set 15, Austin FC: Of Tulip Bulbs & Poor Construction Choices

An investment was made...

What follows is a brief history of Austin FC, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed on both sides of that and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., before First Kick 2026. You should count on things happening between here and there.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

Thumbnail History
Austin FC came into MLS pretty hot, publicity-wise – look, Matthew McConaughey! He’s got a drum! – the fans showed up with drums of their own (and trumpets) and did “Keep Austin Weird” proud enough. The stadium looks great and there’s something charming about the way they bathe it in green light every time the home team scores (wait for it). The stage looks great, but…

Austin FC threw everyone a head-fake in 2022, when they finished second in the West and made a deep run in the MLS Cup playoffs (semifinals!). Their inaugural-season ringer, Sebastian Driussi, looked like a brilliant buy by their second season, his supporting cast of Maxi Urruti, Ethan Finlay and (particularly) Diego Fagundez combined with him in beautiful, four-part harmony, and the defense was…average, and goalkeeper Brad Stuver did everything he could to keep it that way (“Stuuuuvvv!”); Alex Ring directed traffic in midfield, Julio Cascante played better than he ever did as a Portland Timber: everything was clicking and the future looked bright. My memory's hazy on this - Austin's not a team I follow closely - but 2022 might have been the same season that pundits never stopped talking about how much Austin was over-performing their metrics. Even if that convo wasn't in 2022, having one super-freak of a season in what has otherwise been a short, barren history makes for a fitting way to wrap one's head around this team. Austin didn't make the playoffs in 2021 – no shame in that, debut season, etc. – but, after that 2022 miracle season, they missed again in both 2023 and 2024. They definitely showed better in 2025 (see below), while somehow still presenting as a team stumbling through another lost season. If you bought Austin FC stock after 2022, that would make you the proud owner of a bunch of tulip bulbs no one else wants. That expansion team stench doesn’t always wash off so easily...

Getting Reacquainted with Austin FC, McConaughey's Disappointment

Ye Olde Tyme NFTs.

Thumbnail History
Austin FC came into MLS pretty hot, publicity-wise – look, Matthew McConaughey! He’s got a drum! – the fans showed up with drums of their own (and trumpets) and did “Keep Austin Weird” proud enough. The stadium looks great and there’s something charming about the way they bathe it in green light every time the home team scores (wait for it). The stage looks great, but…

Austin FC threw everyone a head-fake in 2022, when they finished second in the West and made a deep run in the MLS Cup playoffs (semifinals!). Their inaugural-season ringer, Sebastian Driussi, looked like a brilliant buy by their second season, his supporting cast of Maxi Urruti, Ethan Finlay and (particularly) Diego Fagundez combined with him in beautiful, four-part harmony, and the defense was…average, and goalkeeper Brad Stuver did everything he could to keep it that way (“Stuuuuvvv!”); Alex Ring directed traffic in midfield, Julio Cascante played better than he ever did as a Portland Timber: everything was clicking and the future looked bright. My memory's hazy on this - Austin's not a team I follow closely - but 2022 might have been the same season that pundits never stopped talking about how much Austin was over-performing their metrics. Even if that convo wasn't in 2022, having one super-freak of a season in what has otherwise been a short, barren history makes for a fitting way to wrap one's head around this team. Austin didn't make the playoffs in 2021 and they haven't made them after 2022, not even as a wild card. If you bought Austin FC stock after 2022, that would make you the proud owner of a bunch of tulip bulbs no one else wants. Looks like they have some time left on their stretch as an expansion team...

Total Joy Points: -1

How They Earned Them (& How This Is Calculated, for Reference)
MLS Playoffs Semifinals: 2022

Austin FC Scouting Report: On the Undead and Shitty Committees

Give it to me straight, doc...

It’s nice to be back, feeling like I have the space to let my mind wander. I’ll seek not to abuse the privilege. Oh, and all of this is based on memory, 75+ additional minutes of review and poking around some (real, real) basic stats.

Record/Stats: 9-13-9, 36 pts., 34 gf, 44 ga (-10); home 6-5-5 away 3-8-4, 11th West, 21st overall
Last 10: LWLLTWLLTL
Venue: AHHAHAHAAH (again, not laughing, H=home, A=away)
Remaining Games: @ POR, @ LAG, v COL

First and foremost, yes, mathematical probability is the only thing keeping Austin FC from their due terminal diagnosis. They’re dead in all but name, obviously, but spectator sports count among the rare places where zombies can harm the living. So, shoot the fuckers in the head, yeah?

The (Largely Regular) Lineup
Austin’s head coach, Josh Wolff, has trotted out at least three different formations in recent weeks – 4-3-3, 4-4-2, hell, the man even made a pass at a 4-2-3-1; then again, what else does a coach do but tinker through a 2-6-2 run? – but it’s also a lot of plugging the same dudes into a different shape (for reference, the lineups reviewed go back to the game at Nashville in late August). Guilherme Biro and Mikkel Desler have been constants at fullback, Brendan Hines-Ike has anchored most of the defenses with either Julio Cascante (hi, Julio!) or Matt Hedges at his side. Alex Ring (always) patrols midfield in front of them, with Daniel Pereira the most frequent Batman to his Robin, though (coach’s son) Owen Wolff occasionally spells him. Sebastian Driussi still steers Wolff’s (ahem) attack and mostly toward a semi-stable combination of Jader Obrian and, since he joined, Osman Bukari, but you also see Diego Rubio and, in the briefest of glimpses, Gyasi Zardes (what a signing). Driussi gets a little attacking support from Jon Gallagher, mostly through crosses (he floats wide). It’s a couple cameos from there. The end.

Austin FC Scouting Report: Looking at a Mountain, Walking Up a Hill?

Keep climbing! It gets easier! (Plus extra points!)

All the games are big for the Timbers at this point. It’s weirdly invigorating, honestly, all this living on the edge of failure...but let’s talk about the opposition, Austin FC, staring with:

The Basics
6-4-5, 23 pts., 20 gf, 18 ga (+2); home 5-1-2, away 1-3-3, 5th West, 10th overall
Last 10:    WWLWWTLWWT
Venue:      AHHAAHAHHA

My GOD, I love data! For instance, if you just had Austin’s record, you’d see that 6-2-2 over their past 10 games and have every reason to brace for a hiding. If you poked around, say, the Form Guide, you’d see that Austin only loss at home came all the way back at MLS Week 1 (versus Minnesota – and who hasn’t done that this season?), that the two draws came shortly thereafter, and that’s been nothing but Ws since.

If you look a little longer, say, walk through the teams Austin have beat at home – in order, FC Dallas, San Jose, the Galaxy, Houston, then Sporting KC – or that the 15 goals for and 10 goals against over the past 10 games tighten to just six goals for and five goals over the past five games, you'd start to wonder. They still went 2-2-1 over that five-game stretch, sturdy, sure, but the hill to climb shrinks a little every time you look at it. Next thing you know you’re seeing stats pop up in broadcast – e.g., the Head to Head going into the win over Houston that showed Austin’s xG differential at -8.6. I don’t want to oversell that narrative – not least because Portland’s checks all the boxes for being the next team to stumble into Q2 Stadium (aka, Austin’s home ground) and face-plant on the field. And that 1-5-2 road record only makes you wonder just  how hard their face will hit it.

But for that horse-fly in the ointment, this one looks wide-open. With that, let’s get back to Austin.

The Team
All-time head coach/impressive-chin possessor, Josh Wolff, does not deviate from the 4-2-3-1, and Brad Stuver always starts in goal (you’ll hear “STUUUV” every time he makes a save). Moreover, Wolff sticks with most of the same players, which include: