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| A bit too on the nose... |
I wouldn’t call MLS Week 23 “bad,” not in the formal sense, but the ground under my feet feels firm enough for me to argue that not a lot happened. Yeah, yeah, name an MLS Match Day when that doesn’t hold, but my feet won’t take one step off this soapbox till I’ve said my piece. That’s not the biggest deal, not with 11 games still remaining for most teams, but the gap between the good, the mid, and the irrelevant tightened a little on Saturday. For reference, the relevant lines break as follows, and in both conferences: 1-5 = good; 6-9 = mid; the rest = bad. That’s right, I said it. I’ll speak better of the teams below when they do better week in and out.
Speaking of, nearly every team the league has a midweek game this week. To paraphrase the inimitable, yet much-mocked Hudsucker Proxy, your future is now.
With that, it’s time to kick around last weekend’s results. As with every week’s edition (which have always existed and been reliably delivered since 1996, no, I have not shut down this blog three to four times), I value some results more than others and thus spend more time on them. In a reverse of last week’s post, this week’s post starts with those results, then speed-runs the rest. In the order I looked at ‘em…
Columbus Crew 3-0 Colorado Rapids
The prime directive here was to determine whether or not Colorado, of the now 2-9-1 road record, could win any road game. The highlights showed a team drowning over the opening 30 minutes and, despite spending most of the game only 0-1 down, never really recovering. The Rapids caught up on the numbers side before the final whistle, if just a little, but a Columbus team that hadn’t won in five games padded the final score smartly courtesy of goal contributions by new kid, Gonzalo Tapia; his tricky-shit goal, Columbus’ second, for reference. As for the Rapids, their home record (8-3-0 currently) looks like a good bet to get them to the playoffs, but all signs point to them needing to host if they want to go anywhere.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 1-3 St. Louis CITY FC
While I can’t claim to know the ‘Caps intimately (it was just one night, we were both young, in love, maybe riding with molly), their starting XI tells me they gambled on resting a player or two (sober light of day says...maybe?). That plan held for a while, and with insurance provided by Emmanuel Sabbi, but St. Louis clawed one back – through an active and, based on what I’ve seen, lately improving Simon Becher – before adding two more before the halftime whistle. Some part of the collapse owed to sleepy defending (see, here) and Vancouver didn’t get enough out of salting in some regulars (e.g., Brian White and Ryan Gauld) to rescue the result. I feel like Vancouver has slowed down a little, but for all the teams doing all right this late summer, only St. Louis has a step on Nashville over their past 10 games – i.e., 7-0-3 v 7-1-2. So…any guesses on who the Timbers host on Wednesday?
Toronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire FC
Despite hanging at 11th in the East, Toronto’s not actually bad, or at least they’re not significantly worse than, say, 7th place New York City FC. What’s three points but a win meeting a loss on the same weekend, amirite? Chicago, meanwhile, has spent a lot of time on the road – seven of their past 10 games, in fact – and, while that road trip hasn’t catapulted them to the top of the table, 2-3-3 ain’t so bad. All three of those draws came over the past three games and, against Toronto, that included surviving a strong, finally hat trick from former U.S. international, Josh Sargent (flagging his first and third goals to show what can be). Chicago clawed back to level terms thanks to Robert Lewandowski and (mostly) Philip Zinckernagel (here and here), whose steady, upper-shelf work for the Fire earned him a well-justified DP upgrade. Going back to last week’s notes, yes, this was just another tie for Toronto (11, and almost certainly counting), but Chicago’s home record should keep them in the Top 4 and signs for them stealing a playoff win on the road point to all right.
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| The midnight ride? I think? |
At long (seriously!) last, Dallas comes home from a long road trip only to, per the final score at least, struggle to bury a Sporting Kansas City team that died sometime during July. The rumors of their demise have not changed: Dallas gifted SKC two goals (with the second, in particular, gift-wrapped, bowed up purty and with a gift card added gratis) before answering back with a four-goal pile on courtesy of Logan Farrington and (of course) Petar Musa. The main question in play here was where Dallas goes with the balance of their games 11 remaining at home (7 versus 4). Clean up the fuck ups and ride Farrington and Musa (and Joaquin Valiente (10 assists!)) and Kaick (this goal!)) to glory and they’ll do fine. I don’t think staying in the Top 4 will come easy, but I wouldn’t count out Dallas for anything in the West this season.
Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 New England Revolution
Almost certainly the least relevant game reviewed herein, but the Galaxy’s two thin points behind the Timbers (somehow), and it’s not like they’re nipping at their heels (2-4-4 to Portland’s (now) 5-3-2 over their past 10 games), but two points is literally two points. So, how did they beat the Revs? The answer: early-ish and by surviving a second-half shelling (the final stats nod thereto). The Galaxy can take a deserved bow for their second goal, but they owe this result and staying within touching distance with the rest of the West as much to various parts of the woodwork as they owe to JC Marcinkowski (still employed! good on ya!) and their defense. As for the Revs, sure they’re form hit the toilet in recent weeks (3-4-3) and, while it’s not a wholly exonerating excuse, they played seven of those on the road and picked up a, if you squint hard enough, respectable seven points of 21 from those games. Hey, at least they beat Columbus at Miracle-Gro…
Real Salt Lake 2-2 Los Angeles FC
Last but not least, another “where are they vis-à-vis Portland” review, only this one features two teams putting in the kind of results that meet the Timbers where they are. LAFC hasn’t won in six games, RSL in (fucking) nine, so both teams, for lack of a better phrase, needed this. Denis Bouanga carried LAFC as close to three points as he could, once by scoring (how many times have we seen this?) and again by setting up Son Heung-Min and straight-up victimizing Philip Quinton on both. RSL clapped back with a goal by Saba Lobjanidze (who I would love to see play for a winning team) that could have failed at least three teams and, more to their credit, but essentially sieging LAFC’s defense into submission for the second equalizer (good on ya, Noel Caliskan). The result changes the trajectory for LAFC more than it does for RSL, but only in the narrow sense that LAFC has three straight draws while RSL continues to fall with any branch they grab only slowing their descent.
That’s it for the featured games. Who’s ready for a speed-run through the rest? Yeeee-haawww!!!! (Also, no links for these.)
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| What the heck? Sticking with it. |
Charlotte FC 0-0 Houston Dynamo FC
Orlando City SC 1-0 San Diego FC
Philadelphia Union 2-0 Club du Foot Montreal
Austin FC 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders 0-0 Red Bull New York
Inter Miami CF 2-2 Atlanta United FC
The only result among the immediately above that feels more significant than, oh, four of the featured games was Charlotte v Houston, but, no goals often translates as “no watch” for me and the whole thing tracks better from Houston than Charlotte. In re the first game, Nashville’s probably tired (but file it away to see what follows) and most of the other results slot into some category adjacent to things that makes sense and therefore don’t change the world. To wit…
Both Orlando and San Diego continue to do what they must to continue to hang on to the consolation prize (aka, a play-in spot) in their respective conferences, cheers, lads; of course, Philly took all three against Montreal, because who doesn’t, but I continue to hear chatter about those Sullivan Boys and can’t wait until I get one full fucking week to take all this in before having to pivot to the next fucking “match day”; Austin drawing San Jose in Austin just feels sad for both teams, though, point in fact, San Jose has tied a couple road games lately, which improves on the four losses prior; the Red Bulls are stuck and, Jesus Christ, does Portland even have a rival anymore, Seattle?; finally, it’s mostly funny that Atlanta shit all over another home game for Miami, but it’s not like Miami’s going to miss the playoffs or Atlanta make them, so who fucking cares, amirite?
Last but not least…
Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC
The Timbers got their first hat trick and I got my first mini-stroke! We all win! Extended notes here, but, all in all, Portland’s trending a lot brighter than Minnesota who have won just once in 10 games.
That’s it for last week. Now let’s turn to the only interesting thing that’s gonna happen on Wednesday, i.e., the Portland Timbers versus…
St. Louis CITY FC, L’il Scouter
Record: 10-6-7, 37 pts.; 23 GP; 36 gf, 31 ga (+5); home 6-2-3, away 4-4-4
Last 10 Results: WWWWDWDWDW (7-0-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v ATX (3-0 W); v SKC (3-2 W); @ LAG (3-1 W); v COL (1-0 W); v RSL (1-1 D); @ SJ (3-1 W); @ SKC (1-1 D); v HOU (2-1 W); v FCD (3-3 D); @ VAN (3-1 W)
St. Louis is on a roll, yes (and dammit!), and until the result covered above, I would have asked against whom (not who, whom)? As you can see in the last 10 results noted above, Dear Reader, that isn’t the toughest schedule. Going the other way, St. Louis is giving that schedule the proverbial business – i.e., when a good team hits that patch of games, they’d plow through it with something like a 7-0-3 record, right? Also, by subtraction, one can see that St. Louis used to be the kind of team they’d roll: prior to that late great run, they posted a pitiable 3-6-4 record.
As all the folks who keep tabs on MLS know, St. Louis has (at long last?) parted ways with most of the players associated with their higher aspirations – e.g., Marcel Hartel, Joao Klauss, Cedric Teuchert, even Eduard Lowen. That leaves one Roman Burki standing and I suspect that guy’s cashing out soon as well. A new semi-anonymous starting XI has slotted in and, as noted above, things have gone swimmingly, so who gives a rip?
On the numbers and angles side, Yoann Damet consistently sets up his starting XI in a 3-4-3 (like this one). Most of the same players have shown week after week over the past five weeks: Lukas MacMaughton, Timo Baumgartl and Dante Polvara across the back three; a mix of Tomas Totland, Chris Durkin, Daniel Edelman and Conrad Wallem (fwiw, both outside guys scored at Vancouver) in the middle four, and a front three with Becher featuring every week and players liked San-Bin Jeong, Tomas Ostrak, Alexandru Matan, and Carlo Hulse auditioning to join him. Insofar as you’re thinking, I’ve never heard of any of those guys, that doesn’t matter. Again, 7-0-3. With Hartel departed, that starting eleven has held steady down to six places, more or less (i.e., seven players have 20+ starts, including Burki), so there’s a little churn.
Going by the numbers, St. Louis doesn’t have a “star” player, aka, anyone posting big numbers – Becher leads them on goals with seven and, again, with Hartel departed, they don’t have anyone over five. They spread out the assists a little more evenly – they have four players on four assists or more, e.g., Wallem, Totland, Edelman and (again) Becher – so it looks like team effort goes into goal creation more than most. Per the numbers up top, the attack doesn’t fly so high (1.43 goals/game), so maybe the Timbers defense gets a chance to catch its breath after Saturday; then again, Minnesota wasn’t a high-flying attack either, so…
Due to the quick turnaround between games, I didn’t get the time for a longer look at St. Louis, but my vague sense is that they generate offense more by balls in from the channels than wide play (i.e., crosses), they’re not allergic to firing from range and it’s more ball-to-feet than anything aerial. As such, this feels like an occasion for keeping St. Louis attack in front of the defense and limiting or otherwise managing the incoming.
That’s it for this post. Wish I had a little more for intel, but, fuck it, the more I write, the more I get wrong. I think the blunt message is that Timbers fans should expect a tall task on Wednesday.
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