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| The first layer of translation. |
I finally wrestled this whale to shore and, with that
accomplished, that should leave only slicing off chunks of blubber going
forward and, Jesus Christ, and by everything else that’s holy, I apologize for
that metaphor. The goal is to communicate enormity. Moving on…
To begin, this post updates and expands on this monstrosity
and, if things go according to plan, I’ll set one of these loose each week
(barring vacations) to stumble around the Earth, confuse readers, terrify
children, etc. All I’m really trying to do with this Son of the Monstrosity
(Frankenstein Jr.) is track the results for every team in Major League Soccer
over their last 10 games – and it’s mostly big picture stuff like, who each
team played during that time, where they played them, and - I see this as the
big one - the quality of the opposition. It’s not short, but it’s also mostly
numbers, and I’m trying to keep the commentary reasonably brief. I’m fishing
after trends for the (potentially) significant reason that I don’t think this
league is as random as commonly assumed. Weird results do happen, of course -
e.g., nothing in the record explain Columbus Crew SC shipping four goals to the
Los Angeles Galaxy, regardless of venue - but more of it follows reasonable
patterns than you’d think at first blush.
There is, like, a lot below, but, before starting, I have one
thing to identify, and two caveats:
1) The words “IN” and “OUT” that you see below mean teams
that are, at time of writing*, in the playoffs (IN) or out of them (OUT). (* I
mean this allowing for losing track of the few teams that see-saw
back-and-forth over the playoff line);
2) It is probable that I’ve fucked up some numbers below -
particularly the W/L/D for the last 10 games, and also the goals scored, but
that should even out when I’m tracking fewer things; and
3) I might have misidentified the last 10 games for 3-4
teams down below, but the specific definition will also smooth out going
forward. It’s easy to get turned around when building this from scratch.
I built a lot of this using the Form Guide from MLS’s main site, which I still rate as the single-best one-stop page of information
available. It’s also hard to use because ins and outs outlined here don’t
appear on the surface - hence my little Frankenstein Jr. And, from there, I
believe it’s pretty self-explanatory, or at least I’d like to (please tell me
it’s self-explanatory!), so I’ll just start sprinting (toward that rich, sweet
blubber….sorry). Just start reading and let me know if you have any questions. It
starts with the Eastern Conference, and I’m still listing both conferences according
to the current standings.
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta United FC - 40 points, 12-4-4 (6-2-2 home, 6-1-2
away), 42 gf, 23 ga (+19), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WLDWDWDWLW (5-3-2 (2-1-1 home, 3-2-1
away), 19 gf, 11 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAHAAHHAA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-3-3
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-0-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Atlanta beats the teams it should
- which includes weaker “IN” teams like Philadelphia (@ Columbus is the
highlight there) - but their overall record against stronger teams (recently,
FC Dallas) bears watching. Also, their 4-0 win at home over a near-dead Orlando
pads their goal-differential. Potentially over-hyped?
Last Week: They beat Philadelphia and, from what I heard,
that was mostly about sticking close and exploiting counters. Sure, it’s how
they do, but it matters that Dallas beat them, even on the road.
Next Week: They play Seattle in Atlanta and, awful as
Seattle has been, they defend well and deep, and those are opponents Atlanta
doesn’t like. Reasonable potential for a spoiler.
7 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/9
One of the softest end-runs in MLS, period.
New York City FC - 37 points, 11-4-4 (9-0-1 home, 2-4-3
away), 38 gf, 24 ga (+14), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LDWLWDWLWW (5-3-2 (5-0-1 home, 0-3-1
away), 19 gf, 14 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHAHHHAHH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-1-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-2-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: I’ve heard talk of injuries (yeah, not good and mostly
on the attacking side) and, in the “ur” post for this, I made a big deal about
Vieira leaving. I’ve since seen that cast as a good thing, so I’ll take it
under advisement. Here’s why….
Last Week: Their last 10 games look a lot better after
beating both the Red Bulls and Montreal at home, than they did before that -
especially with Montreal prior run in the data set. Then again, Montreal’s
prior run, and that’s the point of all this: it’s not easy to connect the dots,
and there are a lot fucking dots, people.
Next Week: NYCFC hosts Columbus, who have dropped some
points during their tough, late run, while NYCFC has, until last week, been on
a gradual upward climb. That and home-field advantage should carry them to
three points.
8 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/9
They’re playing “playoff-lite” teams when they play playoff
teams (shit, terrible phrasing!), so expect them to keep rolling.
New York Red Bulls - 32 points, 10-5-2 (6-1-1 home, 3-2-1
away), 34 gf, 17 ga (+17), 17 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWDLDWWWL (6-2-2 (3-0-1 home, 3-2-1
away), 17 gf, 7 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAHAAHHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 3-2-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Unless Chris Armas taking over
really shakes their psyches, the Red Bulls still feel like the league’s only
truly lethal team, one of few that has proved all season that it can beat
anybody…well, except NYCFC, who beat them this past week. Winning home, winning away, winning against playoff
teams, and non-playoff teams says plenty. Only one other teams comes close to
their goal differential over the last 10.
Last Week: Losing to a (real) rival never feels good. Just
to note it, something I saw or read referenced Armas failing to stick to the
generally disruptive game-plan. Something to watch.
Next Week: Had Montreal not hit a wall against…well, the Red
Bulls cross-town rivals. With Montreal’s defense, this should be a decent test
for progress in the Chris Armas era.
9 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/9
While not automatic, the Red Bulls have every chance of hauling
down the teams above them - but that assumes they keep rolling, CHRIS ARMAS.
Also, no pressure.
Columbus Crew SC - 30 points, 8-6-6 (6-2-3 home, 2-4-3
away), 24 gf, 23 ga (+1), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWDDDLLWL (4-3-3 (3-1-2 home, 1-2-1
away), 11 gf, 13 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAAHHHAHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 3-1-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 1-2-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: A solid defensive team, shaky in
the attack, but also one in the midst of a tough run, even if they’re playing
those teams at home. It’s fair to wonder whether their level doesn’t reside
somewhere between beating New England away and RSL at home.
Last Week: A road loss, and a bad one, to the Galaxy. Specific
circumstances notwithstanding that puts a dent in their defensive rep, even for
an away game. Finely-balanced bunch.
Next Week: NYCFC on the road, which doesn’t feel unwinnable,
even if it’s the kind of day (i.e., away to a good team) they typically lose.
6 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/7
If they can take points from games like NYCFC on the road,
Columbus gets to coast a bit from September 19 on. They have to get there whole
first, of course, step over some sharks...
New England Revolution - 28 points, 7-4-7 (6-2-3 home, 1-2-4
away), 30 gf, 25 ga (+5), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LWLDDWDDWD (4-2-4 (3-1-2 home, 0-1-3
away), 17 gf, 17 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHHAHHAAH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-1-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 2-1-3
Current Thumbnail Profile: Broadly, their biggest problem
comes with dropping points where they shouldn’t - e.g., losing at home to
Columbus a few weeks back, or failing to beat San Jose anywhere, because, who
doesn’t do that? By and large, they’re on the wrong side of great, at least so
far, and that shows up in their goal differential.
Last Week: A goal-less draw against Seattle, even at home,
makes sense, because they’re playing a good defensive team. A good team creates
its own momentum to get through that stuff. The Revs can’t do that.
Next Week: The Galaxy at home where the Revs don’t lose
much, and that’s probably the best news.
6 home games remaining, 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/9
Favorable on the quality side, anyway, but they’ve got too
many good/surging teams ahead of them for comfort. That could change, and part
of changing that involves New England.
Montreal Impact - 24 points, 8-12-0 (6-3-0 home, 2-9-0
away), 24 gf, 35 ga (-11), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLLWLWWWWL (5-5-0 (4-2-0 home, 1-3-0
away), 8 gf, 9 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAHAHAHHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-2-0
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 4-3-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Montreal went on a run, but,
outside the home win over Sporting KC, every one of those results make decent
sense. Forgot the +5 advantage goals scored (and consider where L’Impact would
be without it): beating Orlando back-to-back is like beating one USL team one time.
To carry that forward, I think I saw someone talk about Montreal’s run as
“getting back to what works for them.” Given the teams they played over this
stretch (mostly OUT teams), couldn’t that just be getting away with the same
old shit they've done in the past?
Last Week: They won narrowly at home over Colorado and dropped
three without answering back on the road against NYCFC, and mostly because
that’s how things work. Or, bluntly, I’ll need to see more before that 4-game
winning streak looks like anything but a glitch…
Next Week: …and what is playing a dire San Jose team at home
anything but more junk data? If the rumors about Montreal’s improved defense are
real, they should roll over the ‘Quakes. That said, both teams feel…just right
to break type.
8 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/6
Basically, if they are really better, Montreal has a
puncher’s chance. For the record, my money’s against it.
Philadelphia Union - 24 points, 6-9-3 (5-3-2 home, 2-6-1
away), 25 gf, 30 ga (-5), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWDWLLWLLW (5-4-1 (2-3-0 home, 3-1-1
away), 19 gf, 16 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAHAHHAHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-3-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-1-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Per the descriptor for the
Atlanta loss, and what I’ve actually seen from them, the team most likely to
control the game, and still lose it. At this point, the race for the last, Bachelor-kissed rose that grants passage into the playoffs feels like it’s between them, Montreal and Chicago. Take away the loss at home
to Toronto, maybe the draw at Red Bulls, and just about all their results basically
make sense.
Last Week: Win over Chicago on the road, and, yes, that
makes sense, just like losing to Atlanta at home. One game, they can make their
control matter (@ Chicago), the other (v. Atlanta) they can’t. In other words,
the venue mattered less than the opposition.
Next Week: Philly takes a week off, then plays LA at home.
They’re playing weaker teams strong at home, so, baring a fluke, I’d expect the
Union to take this one.
7 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/8
Their last six games feature teams that, between quality and
potential, can viciously turn results on a team that can’t handle it. Stocking
up on points between now and then seems important.
Chicago Fire - 23 points, 6-9-5 (4-5-2 home, 2-4-3 away), 32
gf, 38 ga (-6), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LWLWDDDWLL 4-3-3 (2-2-1 home, 1-2-2
away), 19 gf, 21 ga
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHHAAHAH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-3-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 2-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: They’ve collected 15 points from
30, but that’s mostly by beating the teams they should (e.g., San Jose, Houston
and (pre-collapse, not the other one) Montreal), and mostly at home. All in
all, they’re a kick-down team, one that beats up with alacrity on lesser
teams (swear to God, MLS has a clear hierarchy in any given season,
no matter how hard it is to find).
Last Week: Losing to Vancouver on the road and Philadelphia
at home is, to my mind, very suggestive of Chicago’s level. Those are both
playoff teams, no matter how tenuously, and Chicago’s rowing the same lifeboat
to uncertain shores.
Next Week: With that in mind, no doctor on the goddamn planet, would recommend Dallas on the road for this team.
7 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/6
That IN/OUT split looks terrible. The best thing I can say
is that I think only 8 of the teams they play are nakedly better than them.
Orlando City SC - 19 points, 6-11-1 (4-4-1 home, 2-5-0
away), 25 gf, 41 ga (-16), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WLLLLLLLLL (1-9-0 (1-3-0 home, 0-6-0
away), 8 gf, 28 ga)
Last 10 Home/Away: HHAHAAAHAA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-5-0
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 0-4-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Free…free-fallin’. -20 goal
differential, and it gets worse from there. Nothing has trended upwards as yet,
and, based on what I know, my guess is that this locker-room is silent and
seething after every game. This is the worst run I can remember in MLS history
(I also don’t remember the particulars of DC’s three-win, horror-show 2013). A
reliable three points for your team pending, literally, any other result by
Orlando.
Last Week: Of course they lost at Los Angeles FC.
Next Week: They have to win eventually…right? Toronto FC at
home isn’t their worst shot. But they’d be better off facing Orlando, for sure,
because...oh, I’m so, sorry. You’re…never mind.
8 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/6
For any different team, this year-end run would look
totally different. With Orlando in the state they’re in, I can only see walls.
For all that, they could turn spoiler under a new coach.
Toronto FC - 16 points, 4-10-4 (3-4-2 home, 1-6-2 away), 29
gf, 36 ga (-7), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LWLDWDLLLD (2-5-3 (2-2-2 home, 1-2-1
away), 20 gf, 20 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHHAAHAHAA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-4-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 1-1-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Losses to either New York team
are all right, right along with scoring road draws against SKC, but drawing DC
at home and losing to Minnesota, even away? That shit sticks to your shoe, and
keeps you from crawling up the table.
Last Week: TFC drew at SKC and, on the limited media I take
in (will improve, promise), I heard some things about this one - e.g., who
pulled the most positives out of it, SKC’s injuries, etc. - but Toronto just
played through a tough run (seven IN games), and took a point on the road
against another (heretofore) strong team. That’s a good result in context
(including the Eastern standings and games in hand).
Next Week: Orlando on the road, and that makes it a
must-win. This is why you kick the shit out of the smallest guy in prison on
the first day. (Wait…is it the biggest guy? (What? That’s suicide?!)
8 home games remaining, 8 road games; IN/OUT Split: 8/8
The road ahead…doesn’t get easier. There’s a lot of
intra-Conference IN opposition ahead.
DC United - 11 points, 2-7-5 (1-0-1 home, 1-7-4 away), 23
gf, 29 ga (-6), 14 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: 2-5-3 (1-0-0 home, 1-5-3 away), 18
gf, 20 ga
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAAAAAAA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-4-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 1-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Three points from your last
fifteen games is “maybe you’re not in the right line of work” in any language. All the
same, these guys have been playing on the road long enough to forget their
fucking addresses. They’ve drawn current league darlin’s LAFC on the road, and
just did the same against OG LA - which looks like something when you remember
Columbus’ recent visit to the City of Angels. So far, sure, they’ve only won where they should (e.g., home over
Columbus, on the road v. San Jose), but there’s gonna be a lot of where they
should down the stretch.
Last Week: Again, the draw in LA feels positive. They’re not
buzzing much, so I don’t read about them - and, lord knows, I don’t watch them (again,
hope to improve) - but, whatever you think of the move, they added an elite player.
Next Week: A home game against an aggressively middling and
unattractive Vancouver team feels like the beginnings of figuring them out.
Tough enough to matter, but not great.
15 home games remaining, 5 road games. IN/OUT Split: 12/8
Plenty of dragons swim within that IN/OUT split, but, again,
this team has played only two games at home. And they’ve got six games in their
back pocket.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
FC Dallas - 35 points, 10-3-5 (5-0-4 home, 3-3-1 away), 28
gf, 21 ga (+7), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDWWWWLWWL (7-2-1 (4-0-1 home, 3-2-1
away), 17 gf, 14 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAAHHAAHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-2-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 5-0-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Do note that they’re flawless
against weaker teams, and they’ve hauled down some big ones (Atlanta and LAFC)
at home. The league’s second best defense helps (only Red Bulls’ is better),
but that’s been slipping lately - even in that Atlanta win. Loudly as the
broader numbers speak (that’s the wins, draws, losses), the goal differential
whispers something else.
Last Week: Dallas beat Atlanta at home and lost, and rather
noticeably, to Real Salt Lake. In the Mauro Diaz era, they’ve been like the Red
Bulls, capable of beating everyone. That era just ended…
Next Week: …and yet the Fire at home still feels like a
gift.
7 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/11
Soft as it looks and, honestly, I think Dallas looks good
for the Supporters’ Shield for it. Nothing between them and The Shield than two
mild choke points.
Los Angeles FC - 34 points, 10-4-4 (5-0-3 home, 5-4-1 away),
41 gf, 28 ga (+13), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDLDLWWWDW (5-2-3 (4-0-2 home, 1-2-1
away), 23 gf, 14 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAHAAHHAH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-2-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-0-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: To answer your question, yes,
this has everything to do with spiking on the LAFC love-fest with laxatives.
Their last five wins were: v. MIN, @ SJ, v. CLB, v. PHI, and v. ORL. Basically,
they played at home for the two wins they played against IN teams, and against
the smaller big guns. Take those away and them beating Minnesota, Orlando and
San Jose for the remaining wins, and they’re dropping points in pretty
non-elite ways (e.g., home to DC and, very arguably, away to Houston).
Last Week: They beat Orlando at home, the margin doesn’t
matter, next.
Next Week: LAFC actually hosts the Timbers for the next two
games - that’s league and U.S. Open Cup - and, honestly, I couldn’t be more
thrilled. Portland has played a marginally easier schedule, but they’ve also gotten
results in every game they’ve played against an IN team. The good ones, too.
9 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/9
This looked far, far worse when Sporting KC looked like a
well-maintained train. On current trends, things turn to shit (or just get
hard) starting September 15.
Sporting Kansas City - 33 points, 9-3-6 (6-1-3 home, 3-3-3
away), 35 gf, 24 ga (+11), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWDDWDWLLD (4-2-4 (3-0-2 home, 1-2-2
away), 15 gf, 12 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHHAHAAH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-1-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Badly as things have gone during
their last three games, KC has held onto the tendency of keeping it tight…that
said, I heard something about Ike Opara. Their history makes sense of searching
for the word “hamstring” every time you read the injury report (some there for
sure), but they’re still racking up results against weaker teams.. I’ve also
seen their depth and heard even better things about it.
Last Week: You have to strain positives out of a road loss
to Real Salt Lake where you coughed up four goals, and then two more goals in a home
draw against Toronto. It’s counter-branding, if nothing else, for SKC to let in
six goals, even if they scored four.
Next Week: Away to the Red Bulls: every trend points to a Sporting Kansas City
loss. Were I coaching, I’d play the kids and light every conceivable fire I
could under them.
7 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/7
Outside a soft patch from early August to…early-ish
September, they’ve got some walls to climb ahead, no question: LAFC twice, FC
Dallas twice, Portland once, the Red Bulls next weekend, ect.
Real Salt Lake - 29 points, 9-8-2 (8-1-1 home, 1-7-1 away),
27 gf, 34 ga (-7), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WLWWWLDLWW (6-3-1 (5-0-1 home, 1-3-0
away), 17 gf, 15 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHHAHAHH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-2-0
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 4-1-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Virtually unstoppable at home
(minus that quirky draw to San Jose), RSL has played their own soft patch pretty well
- an argument capped nicely by consecutive home wins over the stronger Western
Conference teams [Ed. - WE’RE ALL COMING FOR YOU!]. They are, however, bad on
the road, both recently and globally…and that might play a part.
Last Week: I teased their last two results above until it didn’t
matter, but that’s a good, resume-padding run in the big picture. Having a
two-goal margin over both SKC and Dallas should make you feel good.
Next Week: Minnesota away…which makes sense of RSL not
expecting all three in this one. I mean, sure, it’s Minnesota, but it’s also
RSL on the road.
7 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/9
They have a fairly easy stretch (no offense to…so many teams
and/or fan-bases) in which they can rack up some points, and they better do it
before the end because their last 5 won’t be easy.
Portland Timbers - 29 points, 8-3-5 (5-0-2 home, 3-3-3
away), 26 gf, 22 ga (+4), 16 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWWWDDDWW (HA!) (7-0-3 (4-0-2 home, 3-0-1 away), 17
gf, 8 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHHAHHAAH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-0-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 5-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: This team wins more often than it
draws and, until further notice, it never loses. The only team to come close to
the Red Bulls on goal-differential, but I’m counting Samuel Armenteros’ Spirit Hat-Trick
as a real one and declaring it even. Yeah, yeah, they’ve had hiccups, but
results are results. And there's at least one promising reinforcement coming.
Last Week: They beat San Jose, but struggled more than they
should have to put a bad team to the (proverbial) sword (Jesus, we are not barbarians!).
Next Week: I would never put money down on this, mostly
because that seems to ensure that whatever I bet on will lose, but Portland I
trust the Timbers to get one win out the next two against LAFC. Also, I want
the Cup.
10 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/8
Most of it looks worse than this team on current form, but
how well RSL is playing toward the end could decide their season.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 26 points, 6-7-5 (3-1-4 home, 3-5-1
away), 29 gf, 37 ga (-8), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LDDDDWWLWW (3-3-4 (2-1-3 home, 1-2-1
away), 19 gf, 20 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHHAHAHAHH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 0-2-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Once you consider the teams who
gave them their wins over their last 10 games (that’s right, I said “gave”), the
less the ‘Caps look real. That’s Orlando and Chicago at home and Colorado on
the road - e.g., teams you’d assume yours would beat given the same scenario, if only out of self-respect.
Absent those wins, and with balance of games IN/OUT games tilting in Vancouver’s
favor (e.g., 6/4), this should not inspire confidence.
Last Week: They beat Chicago at home, and that’s not
greatness; it’s doing the bare minimum.
Next Week: Because they’re reasonable on the road, I’d say
they have a good shot at one point, maybe even three against DC.
7 home games remaining; 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/8
They’ll have to survive a couple clusters (Games 22-25 &
31-34) to stay in the playoff race.
Houston Dynamo - 25 points, 7-6-4 (6-2-1 home, 1-4-3 away),
36 gf, 26 ga (+10), 17 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDWWLLWLDW (5-3-2 (4-0-1 home, 1-3-1
away), 21 gf, 15 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHAAHAHH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-2-2
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 4-1-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Another team that does very much
what it’s supposed to do against its lessers (e.g., the OUT teams), while too
rarely bother their betters (just once, NYCFC, and at home). Still, they score
and both of those goal differentials bear minding. Vancouver should be
sweating.
Last Week: They had a good week - a scoring (2-2) home draw against
LAFC and (what looks like) a convincing home win over Minnesota. My point is, I’ve
seen 5-3-2 records over the past 10 games before, and it’s the Eastern
Conference leaders that have them.
Next Week: They play Colorado, somewhere around Denver, and they should totally win that…even as drawing and/or losing it
would be more in character.
8 home games remaining; 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 11/6
This team walks through the Shadow of the Valley of Death through mid-September,
but at least they’ve got six of those games at home. It hasn’t yet, but, if
this team gets enough of its shit together…
Los Angeles Galaxy - 25 points, 7-7-4 (5-4-1 home, 2-3-3
away), 31 gf, 28 ga (+3), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLWWLDWDDW (4-3-3 (3-1-1 home, 1-2-2
away), 21 gf, 15 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAAHHAHAHH
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 2-2-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 2-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Call them the Western Conference
New England, the team that drops pointless points (e.g., draws to San Jose and
DC regardless of venue, but both were terrible). In all honesty, they’ve barely
won where they should so far, and they’re not winning like even a playoff team
would at this point.
Last Week: If the emphatic win over Columbus prefigures the
future, I mean, the grouping is tight in the lower reaches of the West (as they
are in the Eastern Conference). If the draw at DC means more, though…
Next Week: Playing at New England should build the sample
size on the quality of their attack; positive signs would say plenty.
7 home games remaining; 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/9
They play LAFC twice and, going from memory (because sleep),
that’s the worst of it. They have a soft landing, really.
Minnesota United FC - 19 points, 6-11-1 (4-2-0 home, 1-8-0
away), 23 gf, 36 ga (-13), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WLLDWLLLWL (3-6-1 (3-2-1 home, 0-4-0
away), 12 gf, 20 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHHHAAHHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-3-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 2-3-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: For one, it ain’t great. It’s less
that Minnesota struggles against good teams, but that they do the same against
the bad ones too. From what I’ve heard, though, they signed a new striker,
which is good because that’s the only way this shit gets turned around.
Last Week: A road loss to Houston, and on that scale (3-0)
surely cancels whatever positives they get from narrowly beating a Hamlet-esque
Toronto FC side at home.
Next Week: They host RSL, and this feels like one of those
relationships where each person wants something a little different - aka, a
knife fight. Home field balances it nicely. Man, if I have the time…
8 home games remaining; 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 11/5
In context, that IN/OUT split is brutal, even with those
teams only being marginally in.
Seattle Sounders FC - 16 points, 4-9-4 (2-4-2 home, 2-5-2
away), 15 gf, 22 ga (-7), 17 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WLLLWLDLWD (3-5-2 (1-2-1 home, 2-3-1
away), 10 gf, 13 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAHAHAHHAA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 0-5-1
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 3-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Every time my personal threat
level on this team rises (for natural reasons), I should take in their recent
record against IN and OUT teams, because that really is soothing. Their defense
keeps them in games, but, until further notice or fresh transfer (here's one!), they can’t get wins in many of those games - especially
against good teams.
Last Week: Beating a bad team (Colorado) and drawing a
middling team (New England) on the road only looks good if you’re padding your
lead. It takes killing bigger fish to thrive.
Next Week: Atlanta, away, and, hello(!), bigger fish.
9 home games remaining, 6 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/9
Because I always think Seattle will come back on-line, I’d
say they might go somewhere if they can pick up majority of points in the next four.
If they fall further behind, though, nope.
Colorado Rapids - 15 points, 4-11-3 (3-5-2 home, 0-6-1
away), 22 gf, 32 ga (-10), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLLLLDWWLL (2-7-1 (1-4-1 home, 1-3-0
away), 12 gf, 21 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHHAHAHA
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 1-4-0
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 1-3-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Neither home nor away is safe for
Rapids, and yet they can steal the odd point - just ask Vancouver. All the
same, their goal differential over the last 10 games spells doom. That’s
generally what happens when you can’t improve on one side of that equation.
Better(?), they were worse over their last 10 games, than their prior 8 games.
I mean, had they hit Orlando, like, three weeks later…
Last Week: Colorado lost to both Seattle and Montreal by the
same score, but at least they had travel all the way to Canada to wave one of
them away.
Next Week: They host Houston, who can absolutely find a way to fuck up the game. I’d still bet against them doing it. Colorado has been…bad.
7 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/6
That said, their schedule has enough padding that, with a
good run, and the right results…nah, I’d be shocked. Ending on a high still
looks like their ceiling.
San Jose Earthquakes - 12 points, 2-10-6 (1-4-3 home, 1-6-3
away), 29 gf, 37 ga (-8), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDLLLLDDDL 1-5-4 (0-2-2 home, 1-3-2
away), 17 gf, 21 ga
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHAAHHAHA
Current Thumbnail Profile: A team that loses or draws, home
and away, and without much reference for who they’re playing. Trending slightly
upward - e.g., three draws against mid-table equivalent teams (the Revs, RSL,
and LA). Tied for 4th best offense in West, and 2nd worst defense.
[Ed. - also, whoops.]
Record v IN Teams, Last 10: 0-2-3
Record v OUT Teams, Last 10: 1-3-1
Last Week: I've covered my Portland Timbers at length, but, awful as San Jose was, and for extended periods, they really could
have smuggled a point of this one. I think that’s their normal, poor bastards.
Next Week: Away to Montreal, and thank god, they don’t
travel any worse than they play at home.
9 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/7
Even a good team would struggle with what San Jose has in Games
25-32. For San Jose, though, it’s got to be insurmountable.
Right, all done. As (probably) noted above (and so long
ago), I hope these get better over time and, yes, I plan on starting with Week
1 next season. And watching highlights…ah, who am I kidding? I’m usually
nodding off by the fourth highlight reel and not even…the Rosetta Stone…guy,
that smart fucker. Anyway, I don’t think that even he could make sense of my
notes on all that.
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