 |
| Think one of those set ups in volleyball. #Goals. |
And…yes, I’m attempting a form of global coverage of Major League Soccer. Again. Fear & Self-Loathing in Hillsboro, etc.
The approach turns on the gap between expectations versus results, and with a strong emphasis on the results gained in the actual time/space dimension we all occupy. The mechanics are also pretty straightforward: 1) I check who’s playing who each week and, based on what I think/know, take a stab at what seems likeliest to happen in each game and post it on the twitters (and the dozens of notepads littered around my house), and 2) note what actually happened in these weekly posts. And, once I have said results in hand, I’ll sort them into the following categories:
Expected
Noted
Holy Shit, What?
That, only in reverse order. The meat of these posts will dig into three (3; and only three) of the “Holy Shit, What?” results, which games I’ll review through the MLS-in-15 videos, box scores and anything else I can think of besides post-game interviews because, dang me, are those things as worthless as a White House press conference. I’ll start the post with those three, continue through the “Noted” results - i.e., games with something that feel worth flagging for future reference - and wrap up with the “Expected” results - i.e., the ones that follow expectations. My notes on the latter two groups won't take that long, honest.
Well, that’s the program. If that doesn’t make sense, just look at this Week 1 review as an open hand in cards. The concept will (or should) make sense by the end. Let’s roll - and, the link to The Mothership's Buffet of Easy Data shows up as a link in the score of each game. I'll throw in the odd fitting link, but the rest is up to you.
Holy Shit, What?
Seattle Sounders 4-0 Minnesota United FC
The box score tells the story of a roughly even game, but the highlights (with the shots on goal) showed a highly-efficient performance by the Sounders. When they broke through, they broke all the way through - i.e., if take away Joao Paulo’s brilliant screamer, you have threesqueaky-clean looks at goal for the Sounders. The nuts ‘n’ bolts looked familiar too, given that few teams in MLS match Seattle for keeping the ball in the attacking third and moving the ball around once it’s inside. (Then again, I’m compelled to acknowledge that the percentages don’t strictly support that; going the other way, the quality/quantity equation tilted heavily in Seattle’s favor.) Some other points of curiosity: Minnesota vastly out-possessed Seattle - they had nearly 2/3 - so it looks like Seattle both picked and made their chances. Despite the lopsided score-line, nothing I saw points to seriously writing off Minnesota’s chances: Emanuel Reynoso played some beauties, Robin Lod almost scored two - and, given when they happened, who knows how that might have changed things? - and Cristian Roldan saved a shot that beat Stefan Frei. Based on this one outing (and only this), defense looks like the Loons’ real cause for concern. For a team that sometimes starts slow (Seattle), this was one hell of a result.
Club du Foot Montreal 4-2 Toronto FC
Well, if you’re a Toronto fan, I suppose it’s a matter of staring at the stats till the pain goes away; lingering on the xG graph will probably give you the biggest boost (or lead you to doubt the metric). You’ll get nothing but pain from reviewing the video because, wow, wow, wow, did Toronto fucking die in defense (and can xG even fold a major data-point like that into the model?). Whether it was Romell Quioto roasting (I think? Maybe?) Luke Singh on what looked like a hopeless ball (with Omar Gonzalez trotting to catch up) to score Montreal’s second, or Djordje Mihailovic damn-near walking past Gonzalez for their fourth, or Victor Wanyama dunking on a ball-watching Michael Bradley, TFC dished the goals like Oprah dishes prizes to a studio audience. Because they looked so damn gappy all over the field, it’s hard to get a good read on what, if anything, this means for Montreal’s chances. Based (again, solely) on 15 minutes’ worth of highlights, Toronto looked only half-present out there. It’s three points in Montreal’s back pocket - which I’m sure they’re glad to have - but most the “hold that thought” notes stick to Toronto after this game than on Montreal.
Inter Miami CF 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy
I actually called this an obvious win for the Galaxy, but, after seeing Miami go up 1-0 in the first half, I wanted to see how this one played out…which it did with Miami in general, and Gonzalo Higuain in particular, getting a lot of good looks. They fired a lot of shots, and plenty of them on goal, but buried just two of them: a penalty kick by G. Higuain and another by…checking my notes, Robbie Robinson. Here’s the thing: Robinson busted his ass out there, but he also looks several steps away from elite; about 90% of that goal came from Pizzaro and Higuain. Overall and outside the numbers (or at least possession), most things point to Miami having the better game. Miami has lots of talent, especially on the attacking side, and they played some truly delightful combinations throughout, but nothing about anything I’ve seen tells me they got screwed. The Galaxy responded in the simplest way possible: they scored more goals - Chicharito bagged two, one a real smart, classic piece of work from what I’ve heard called his bag of tricks (i.e., watch his run) - and looked like they knew what they wanted to do when they had the ball. All in all, this game tracked a couple certain ways: 1) I expect the Galaxy to be better in 2021, and 2) I think teams will have to actually beat Miami - i.e., they won’t make it easy. To be clear, that doesn’t mean I like their odds, not without improvement. If I was a Galaxy fan, I’d watch Chicharito’s fist goal over and over, or at least until I believed again.
Noted
Los Angeles FC 2-0 Austin FC
LAFC getting all three points was totally expected, but I actually sat through this one and can confirm Austin made ‘em work for it - or maybe that LAFC labored without some starters (and subbing one off early). Filed away for future reference.
Houston Dynamo 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Mostly up here because I don’t quite what to make of either team. That said, all the low-hanging evidence points to a good win for the Dynamo, with Memo Rodriguez, in particular, shining in the highlights. The opposite goes for San Jose’s defense. And, looking at the xG, I’m caught between thinking I just don’t get the metric or that it has no value.
DC United 2-1 New York City FC
A result that crawled out of another mystery bag: Brendan Hines-Ike scored a beauty (2nd for GOTW?) and NYC left Russell Canouse alone on the equalizer. Nothing really jumps out in the box score - at least not beyond DC looking sloppy (who gets 54.9% passing accuracy?). Good win for DC, bleh result for NYCFC; see where it goes…
FC Dallas 0-0 Colorado Rapids
It’s not the result - I didn’t know what to think of this one going in and the goal-less draw seems on brand - so much as how well the Rapids showed that I’m noting. On the other hand, that could be an inflated impression of Dallas talking.
Expected
Orlando City SC 0-0 Atlanta United FC
I called an Orlando win the likeliest outcome in the preview thread, but seeing these two teams play roughly even pencils out just as well. The box score reflects an even affair, while the highlights showed Orlando getting the better looks. (Both teams had lousy set-pieces, and I think they showed ‘em all.)
Red Bull New York 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
Not being able to make heads or tails of RBNY is what dropped this game into the unknown column, but a vague sense they’re going to struggle makes SKC’s win seem obvious somehow. Just to note it, it was good to see Daniel Salloi score, because he’s had a helluva time.
Chicago Fire FC 2-2 New England Revolution
All the goals came early and the Revs had the better shot at winning it, but something told me the Fire would get a boost from playing at home; as such, the tie felt right. Despite what presented as a 60-minute lull, the game looked like a lively one. One thing to note: Chicago posted 20 shots and with a good number on target, so that’s something to watch.
Nashville SC 2-2 FC Cincinnati
I’m filing this under “expected” very much despite the result. I posted extended notes (with a Cincinnati slant) earlier, but the big take-away is this: Nashville thoroughly outplayed the visitors and Cincy is very, very lucky to have one point right now. Nothing about that looked sustainable.
Columbus Crew SC 0-0 Philadelphia Union
Again, just because I predict one thing - in this case, a Columbus win - doesn’t automatically turn any other result into a “holy shit” reassessment. These are both good teams, they both just participated in the CCL, the numbers are generally even. When Alejandro Bedoya two shots basically match Lucas Zelarayan’s and neither shot goes in, what do you have but a goal-less draw? Long story short, weaker teams await…
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-0 Portland Timbers
I’m still digesting this one - and mostly from the stand-point of figuring out whether it matters or not - but, and again, the fact I expected Portland to win the game doesn’t automatically make this a triumph or a debacle in either direction. That said, did the Timbers under-perform? From what I saw, yes. Did Vancouver over-perform? Eh. It looked better than what little I saw (or imagined from them) last season. Had I watched this game as a neutral, my biggest take-aways would be that Vancouver looked sturdy and competent. Portland ran against that with…some measure(?) of what they’ve got(?), I guess. I got it in my head that Portland and Vancouver have played one another close for quite a while and, if you count four games a while, that’s true: Portland and Vancouver have ended at 1-0 four times out of their last five meetings - and, in case you’re wondering, the Timbers have won three of those five games, sweeping the series with that score-line over 2020, and with another game (August 10, 2018) ending in a 3-1 win. My point is - and, again, I’m still working through this, and mostly intellectually - it’s not a great result for Portland, but it’s not worth any major rethinking either.
And…yeah, I think I just posted my first Weakly review of 2021. I’ll flesh out my thoughts and…whatever on Portland soon, but this seemed more important somehow.
The approach turns on the gap between expectations versus results, and with a strong emphasis on the results gained in the actual time/space dimension we all occupy. The mechanics are also pretty straightforward: 1) I check who’s playing who each week and, based on what I think/know, take a stab at what seems likeliest to happen in each game and post it on the twitters (and the dozens of notepads littered around my house), and 2) note what actually happened in these weekly posts. And, once I have said results in hand, I’ll sort them into the following categories:
Expected
Noted
Holy Shit, What?
That, only in reverse order. The meat of these posts will dig into three (3; and only three) of the “Holy Shit, What?” results, which games I’ll review through the MLS-in-15 videos, box scores and anything else I can think of besides post-game interviews because, dang me, are those things as worthless as a White House press conference. I’ll start the post with those three, continue through the “Noted” results - i.e., games with something that feel worth flagging for future reference - and wrap up with the “Expected” results - i.e., the ones that follow expectations. My notes on the latter two groups won't take that long, honest.
Well, that’s the program. If that doesn’t make sense, just look at this Week 1 review as an open hand in cards. The concept will (or should) make sense by the end. Let’s roll - and, the link to The Mothership's Buffet of Easy Data shows up as a link in the score of each game. I'll throw in the odd fitting link, but the rest is up to you.
Holy Shit, What?
Seattle Sounders 4-0 Minnesota United FC
The box score tells the story of a roughly even game, but the highlights (with the shots on goal) showed a highly-efficient performance by the Sounders. When they broke through, they broke all the way through - i.e., if take away Joao Paulo’s brilliant screamer, you have threesqueaky-clean looks at goal for the Sounders. The nuts ‘n’ bolts looked familiar too, given that few teams in MLS match Seattle for keeping the ball in the attacking third and moving the ball around once it’s inside. (Then again, I’m compelled to acknowledge that the percentages don’t strictly support that; going the other way, the quality/quantity equation tilted heavily in Seattle’s favor.) Some other points of curiosity: Minnesota vastly out-possessed Seattle - they had nearly 2/3 - so it looks like Seattle both picked and made their chances. Despite the lopsided score-line, nothing I saw points to seriously writing off Minnesota’s chances: Emanuel Reynoso played some beauties, Robin Lod almost scored two - and, given when they happened, who knows how that might have changed things? - and Cristian Roldan saved a shot that beat Stefan Frei. Based on this one outing (and only this), defense looks like the Loons’ real cause for concern. For a team that sometimes starts slow (Seattle), this was one hell of a result.
Club du Foot Montreal 4-2 Toronto FC
Well, if you’re a Toronto fan, I suppose it’s a matter of staring at the stats till the pain goes away; lingering on the xG graph will probably give you the biggest boost (or lead you to doubt the metric). You’ll get nothing but pain from reviewing the video because, wow, wow, wow, did Toronto fucking die in defense (and can xG even fold a major data-point like that into the model?). Whether it was Romell Quioto roasting (I think? Maybe?) Luke Singh on what looked like a hopeless ball (with Omar Gonzalez trotting to catch up) to score Montreal’s second, or Djordje Mihailovic damn-near walking past Gonzalez for their fourth, or Victor Wanyama dunking on a ball-watching Michael Bradley, TFC dished the goals like Oprah dishes prizes to a studio audience. Because they looked so damn gappy all over the field, it’s hard to get a good read on what, if anything, this means for Montreal’s chances. Based (again, solely) on 15 minutes’ worth of highlights, Toronto looked only half-present out there. It’s three points in Montreal’s back pocket - which I’m sure they’re glad to have - but most the “hold that thought” notes stick to Toronto after this game than on Montreal.
Inter Miami CF 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy
I actually called this an obvious win for the Galaxy, but, after seeing Miami go up 1-0 in the first half, I wanted to see how this one played out…which it did with Miami in general, and Gonzalo Higuain in particular, getting a lot of good looks. They fired a lot of shots, and plenty of them on goal, but buried just two of them: a penalty kick by G. Higuain and another by…checking my notes, Robbie Robinson. Here’s the thing: Robinson busted his ass out there, but he also looks several steps away from elite; about 90% of that goal came from Pizzaro and Higuain. Overall and outside the numbers (or at least possession), most things point to Miami having the better game. Miami has lots of talent, especially on the attacking side, and they played some truly delightful combinations throughout, but nothing about anything I’ve seen tells me they got screwed. The Galaxy responded in the simplest way possible: they scored more goals - Chicharito bagged two, one a real smart, classic piece of work from what I’ve heard called his bag of tricks (i.e., watch his run) - and looked like they knew what they wanted to do when they had the ball. All in all, this game tracked a couple certain ways: 1) I expect the Galaxy to be better in 2021, and 2) I think teams will have to actually beat Miami - i.e., they won’t make it easy. To be clear, that doesn’t mean I like their odds, not without improvement. If I was a Galaxy fan, I’d watch Chicharito’s fist goal over and over, or at least until I believed again.
Noted
Los Angeles FC 2-0 Austin FC
LAFC getting all three points was totally expected, but I actually sat through this one and can confirm Austin made ‘em work for it - or maybe that LAFC labored without some starters (and subbing one off early). Filed away for future reference.
Houston Dynamo 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes
Mostly up here because I don’t quite what to make of either team. That said, all the low-hanging evidence points to a good win for the Dynamo, with Memo Rodriguez, in particular, shining in the highlights. The opposite goes for San Jose’s defense. And, looking at the xG, I’m caught between thinking I just don’t get the metric or that it has no value.
DC United 2-1 New York City FC
A result that crawled out of another mystery bag: Brendan Hines-Ike scored a beauty (2nd for GOTW?) and NYC left Russell Canouse alone on the equalizer. Nothing really jumps out in the box score - at least not beyond DC looking sloppy (who gets 54.9% passing accuracy?). Good win for DC, bleh result for NYCFC; see where it goes…
FC Dallas 0-0 Colorado Rapids
It’s not the result - I didn’t know what to think of this one going in and the goal-less draw seems on brand - so much as how well the Rapids showed that I’m noting. On the other hand, that could be an inflated impression of Dallas talking.
Expected
Orlando City SC 0-0 Atlanta United FC
I called an Orlando win the likeliest outcome in the preview thread, but seeing these two teams play roughly even pencils out just as well. The box score reflects an even affair, while the highlights showed Orlando getting the better looks. (Both teams had lousy set-pieces, and I think they showed ‘em all.)
Red Bull New York 1-2 Sporting Kansas City
Not being able to make heads or tails of RBNY is what dropped this game into the unknown column, but a vague sense they’re going to struggle makes SKC’s win seem obvious somehow. Just to note it, it was good to see Daniel Salloi score, because he’s had a helluva time.
Chicago Fire FC 2-2 New England Revolution
All the goals came early and the Revs had the better shot at winning it, but something told me the Fire would get a boost from playing at home; as such, the tie felt right. Despite what presented as a 60-minute lull, the game looked like a lively one. One thing to note: Chicago posted 20 shots and with a good number on target, so that’s something to watch.
Nashville SC 2-2 FC Cincinnati
I’m filing this under “expected” very much despite the result. I posted extended notes (with a Cincinnati slant) earlier, but the big take-away is this: Nashville thoroughly outplayed the visitors and Cincy is very, very lucky to have one point right now. Nothing about that looked sustainable.
Columbus Crew SC 0-0 Philadelphia Union
Again, just because I predict one thing - in this case, a Columbus win - doesn’t automatically turn any other result into a “holy shit” reassessment. These are both good teams, they both just participated in the CCL, the numbers are generally even. When Alejandro Bedoya two shots basically match Lucas Zelarayan’s and neither shot goes in, what do you have but a goal-less draw? Long story short, weaker teams await…
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-0 Portland Timbers
I’m still digesting this one - and mostly from the stand-point of figuring out whether it matters or not - but, and again, the fact I expected Portland to win the game doesn’t automatically make this a triumph or a debacle in either direction. That said, did the Timbers under-perform? From what I saw, yes. Did Vancouver over-perform? Eh. It looked better than what little I saw (or imagined from them) last season. Had I watched this game as a neutral, my biggest take-aways would be that Vancouver looked sturdy and competent. Portland ran against that with…some measure(?) of what they’ve got(?), I guess. I got it in my head that Portland and Vancouver have played one another close for quite a while and, if you count four games a while, that’s true: Portland and Vancouver have ended at 1-0 four times out of their last five meetings - and, in case you’re wondering, the Timbers have won three of those five games, sweeping the series with that score-line over 2020, and with another game (August 10, 2018) ending in a 3-1 win. My point is - and, again, I’m still working through this, and mostly intellectually - it’s not a great result for Portland, but it’s not worth any major rethinking either.
And…yeah, I think I just posted my first Weakly review of 2021. I’ll flesh out my thoughts and…whatever on Portland soon, but this seemed more important somehow.
On Portland, Mothership Matt Doyle had this to say
ReplyDelete“ Portland shouldn't worry too much, as they were victims of the typical post-CCL churn. The five MLS teams that did so well in the CCL over the past two weeks? 0-2-3 with a grand total of two goals scored in Week 1 of the MLS season.”
Seems like par for the course.