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| Only time will tell... |
DC United kicked off its 2024 regular season with a 3-1 home win over the New England Revolution that knocked Armchair Analyst, Matt Doyle, off the fence. He’s now convinced that DC will make the 2024 playoffs, spin of the wheel with odds equal to betting it'll rain during November in Portland. He may be right, he may be crazy, he just may be the lunatic we’re looking for…but all I can think when I look at the East so far is “competitive.”
That’s a thought for another day, because the only thing I care about right now is whether the Portland Timbers can compete against DC on Saturday at…is it still Providence Park, or did the state of Oregon’s real estate king/hospital system fuck off a la Da Bella? Anyhoo, as much as the weight of the schedule ahead feels lighter than it did when it first dropped – see road games against the punchless (e.g., New York City FC) and the wounded (Houston Dynamo FC) teams – I’d still rate the hike till May as moderate to difficult at a minimum. The Timbers can knock down that hike to easy-to-moderate, but they’ll have to play well to do it.
Based on the few indicators at hand, DC will shove that question to the fore, one way or the other. They may or may not be good –I’ll get to that – but they play the game like smartly-trained methed-up puppies. They showed they have the youth and legs last week to run a highly active and coordinated press; no Revolution player could hold the ball for over a second without a DC player either jumping in his pocket or chasing him like a ravening fast zombie. With a new coach (Troy Lesesne), early-season enthusiasm, and the team’s storied (long ago) history lashing at their shoulders, I expect DC to run at every Timbers player within 20 yards of the ball from the starting whistle until they take a spell to catch the breath. The method to the madness showed up in Doyle’s Big Week 1 Wrap:
“Lesesne talked all week about winning the ball higher up the pitch to give [Christian] Benteke opportunities and it worked.”
- Calen Carr
The good news: a competent team can play through that. New England did it in Week 1, even with a player tied behind their backs (Giacomo Vrioni got sent off at the 25th). Assuming DC does go all-in on the press (as they did against the Revs), they get high enough on the field to leave exploitable space behind them and, as it happens, I found a post-game thread on DC’s subreddit full of fretting about their capacity to defend in transition (can’t vouch for where it went from there, so…).
So long as I’m questioning what readers get from The Official Party Organ, I should probably address this:
“The Benteke point is well-taken. Put him out there with two fullbacks who can cross and he’s a nightmare for opposing center backs.”
- Matt Doyle
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| Yeah, yeah. I've used this one before. Blame Red Bull. |
I didn’t see a lot of that crossing over the 50+ minutes I watched; moreover, the only time I saw it in the highlights comes on DC’s/Benteke’s third goal…now, hold this thought (and the other one). What I did see was a team committed to putting constant pressure on the opposition, with or without the ball, and most of what I saw passed through the channels and ended with just about everyone firing on goal as if compelled by invisible shock collars, range and clutter be damned; Theodore (“Teddy,” right?) Ku-DiPietro and Gabriel Pirani must have had wires all over with the way they fired away. That’s where the last quibble comes in: The Official Party Organ’s stats page for the game shows DC firing 31 shots with just 5 of those on goal – which tracks a hell of a lot better than the 5.0(?) xG they somehow mathematized out of thin air.
To finally pick up a question posed up in the…third paragraph, is DC United a good team? I don't have answer better than a hunch, but I do expect a very real challenge – if just by way of the (expected) pressing. And Benteke really does give them a cultured “big man” forward, physical, dynamic and technical all at once. They get composure and experience out of Mateusz Klich and the fans on that subreddit gave newcomer Matti Peltola something like a tongue-bath, he even got blessed as “a revelation.” Finally, in defense of the above-mentioned fullbacks who fire into Benteke – Pedro Santos and Aaron Herrera – they do fit the “can cross” description. Now, for the players around them…
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| Get some short shorts in there... |
Pirani and Ku-DiPietro (reasonably referred to as “KDP”) do come off as over-eager, an impression every source I consulted kicked around and confirmed. Closer to goal, and with Steve Birnbaum out, DC paired Lucas Bartlett (who came over from St. Louis CITY FC) and Christopher McVey as starting center backs. The latter went…fine and Pirani and KDP brought those youthful, pressing (sweating, heaving) legs to the game and all that energy provides a form of value. Somewhere or another, I read bated whispers of another player, Martin Rodriguez, who may kick in a little more proverbial “oomph” – and, if he plays Saturday, I’ll take that as consequential (I mean, why not?)…but, to bring it back to the original question…
Nothing I saw sold me on DC as a “good team.” They played a good game, for sure, but if the jury isn’t still out, it should be. While this doesn’t rise to “Exhibit A” levels, I want to circle back to the goals Benteke scored because they key in on the first thing the Timbers defense needs to do Saturday. Not that, aka, Dave Romney losing an MVP nominee (right?) in the penalty area on the second goal and what looked one hell of a lot like Henrich Ravas calling off Jonathan Mensah only to punch helplessly into Benteke’s lower back on the third (link above; that one's weird enough to be worth watching). I’d stick Zac McGraw on Benteke, if within reason (i.e., he can’t roam all over) as a first step and grow from there. Now…
Some Closing Notes
1) The Acehole Up the Sleeve
Jared Stroud comes off as one of those guys who carries the word “competitive” as a shield, so that people won't call him what he seems to be, aka, a massive asshole. I’ve resisted this for as long as I could, but…he is also good, i.e., active, soundly technical, and smart enough to cause real problems. He’s built for this system (possibly born and raised in it; think he’s a Red Bull product) and it’s possible he wants it more than any Timber. Keep an eye on DC’s No. 8.
2) Don’t Let Last Week’s Fatal Flaw Become This Week’s Deadly Mistake
The Timbers offered Colorado days to tee up their crosses in Week 1. Late in the game, I swear to God I saw fullbacks running away from the player crossing the ball (run away! run away!). I get concern around this, especially with all of Benteke’s body parts lurking in the area, but I’d also hate to see Portland defend wide areas at, say, the expense of leaving the channels open or just spreading the field too much in the defensive third. I saw enough of DC firing from range that I'm not so worried about it. Staying tight on the options in the area strikes me as the higher priority. Another good idea: at least try to defend crosses, yeah?
3) Keep the Ball Moving
Even if the pass looks safe to the point of cowardice, that pass inevitably shifts the state of DC’s press. Get into rhythm, then get to getting that ball up the field.
4) Play the Game They Give You
I’ll be stunned if DC doesn’t play something close to the game they played against the Revs – mostly because that looks like their best game – but, in the unlikely event they try to suck the Timbers into a bunker-counter situation, I hope to see Phil Neville take them up on it. As follows from seeing them as a team more capable than good, I think the Timbers should take all the field DC’s willing to give them. Related, neither of the center backs who started in Week 1, Lucas Bartlett and Christopher McVey – have much experiences as starters, so test those two often as a half-good idea comes to mind, up to and including long balls. If DC goes with Plan A and forces the Timbers into a transition game, I'd stick with the same advice: get at that back-line ASAP and aggressively.
5) Portland’s Midfield
My main thought: choose carefully. Seriously, I hope Neville thinks about this a couple minutes longer than he thinks he needs to. Fwiw, I’d be tempted to start to defensive-minded players – e.g., Chara with Paredes, and put whomever you start between Evander and Eryk Williamson in front of them and keep whatever front three you start as close to the attack as you can get it from there. Alternatively, you can one d-mid in there and count on Eryk and Evander to both defend and play through the press. However Neville sets it up and who with, I want players who are comfortable on the ball.
That’s it for this data-dump. I’ll try to shorten up next week’s edition. Just had to explain all the straws I'm grasping at...
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