MLS Week 1 Preview, Getting Hyped on Thin Gruel

Solid show, btw.

At the risk of defeating the point of this post, I’m going to start by acknowledging that none of what’s below matters at all. By allowing nine (fucking) teams from each of its two conferences to qualify, Major League Soccer has made a conscious choice to devalue the regular season to a point where I wonder why anyone bothers to tune in before August. How well a team does through, say, April could be rendered meaningless by a cratering collapse or raging success in September; I can’t stress enough how much the results from MLS Week 1-20 just don’t matter. I've reached the sad place of pining for the 2024 Leagues Cup, because I think it's my first, best chance to feel anything of consequence before September. Stakes, people. They matter...

So, why do this? I mean apart from the fact that I just really like watching soccer?

First and foremost, I’ve chosen this as a hobby. Second, in the same way a sword-maker sharpens the sword over and over until it can cut through trees (apparently; Blue Eye Samurai lays waste to trees of all sizes as if that was the point of the show), seeing MLS’s 29 teams 34 times before they arrive at games that actually matter, aka, the playoffs, gives you a pretty clear bead on which of those teams have a shot in hell at lifting MLS Cup. That number has been whittled down to, at the very most, four or even three teams over the past couple seasons, which, again, highlights just how many meaningless games are played in this league plays year after year…and yet, is that so different than what the majority of teams experience in the English Premier League every season? Hold on…maybe spectator sports writ large are the problem?

To make this even weirder, this will be the only league-wide preview post I do all season. The current plan is to post weekly Vibez Checks at the end of each “MLS Week,” which (swear to God) will be just a loose rundown of what I saw in the games and what I see for patterns in the results. On the research side, I see myself watching two full games every week – one involving the Portland Timbers, the other involving their next opponent – long chunks (45-60 minutes’ worth) of the three games that most interest me, plus whatever else I get to after that. Unlike past seasons, I really do want to keep all this on a “vibes” level – i.e., expect the random name drop (as in, “holy shit, this guy’s killing it”) and general notes (as in, “Atlanta’s on a streak that bears watching”), as opposed to in-depth blow-by-blow coverage from this game or that or deep dives into the latest analytic stats on the market. Gods willing, people who find these posts will get a breezy read and the jokes will land.

To the extent this post has a purpose, it’s about hyping me up for First Kick 2024. Some of the commentary doubles as soft predictions for what I expect from each team, but I’m also approaching all that from something like a headline level (and the intelligence gathered from this incomplete series). With that, let’s look at what we’ve got on the platter.

MLS wants to be that trophy!

Inter Miami CF v Real Salt Lake

If there’s a better shorthand for the cringeworthy thirst of MLS’s Lionel Messi fan-girling than giving Miami a stand-alone game for its season opener, I don’t know what it is. And the choice to give this aging team a two-game week after dragging their asses all over the globe on a barn-storming tour that sought to squeeze every last penny out of any fan they could? I don’t know what to call that but an ode to capitalism’s shoddiest instincts. RSL is a side-show in this one, the Washington Generals to Miami’s (alleged) Harlem Globetrotters, so how can I pull for anything but a soulless, goalless draw?

Columbus Crew SC v Atlanta United FC

This one has promise. Last season’s (other) champs (FC Cincinnati won the Supporters’ Shield, after all) versus one of the more perennially ambitious in MLS. The result won’t matter in the long-run, but this is still three hard-won points to the team that wins it – and that would be bigger for Atlanta than Columbus, no question. Neutrals should get a good game as a bonus.

Los Angeles FC v Seattle Sounders

I was and wasn’t surprised to see the MLS’s collective in-house brain-trust give Seattle a better shot at winning the West than LAFC, but what is that but bulletin-board material for LA? Seattle seems more complete than the hosts at this point, which feels worth keeping in mind if the result breaks their way.

Charlotte FC v New York City FC

I can’t say I care about this one and that’s a little sad. This is very much a case of “make me care” for both of these teams, but I’m expecting either a narrow win for one team or the other or a goal-less draw.

DC United v New England Revolution

I think this game is more important to one team than the other, only I’m not sure which team. The key point of interest is DC’s rebuild, but there’s also the Revs’ lingering ambition from their (once) record-setting 2021 season. Carles Gil won’t be around forever (though I really like Chancalay and some of the Revs' other youngsters).

I hate this ad in a way that makes me feel sad.

Orlando City SC v Club du Foot Montreal

Since they’re coming off a best-ever finish in 2023, this amounts to an early statement game for Orlando. Any positive Montreal gets out of this – especially with a new coach in town (Laurent Courtois) – is gravy. Again, nothing is the end of the world in Week 1, but Orlando wants to start on the right foot, surely. (And I’ll call you Shirley any time I fucking want to; this ad makes me want to kill.)

Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire FC

While I can’t see anyone reading much into whatever result happens, this comes as close as a Week 1 game can get to a must-win for Philly.

Austin FC v Minnesota United FC

All signs point to this being a nothing game between two nothing teams, make me care, etc. On the plus side, I saw somewhere that Minnesota might actually have a permanent head coach lined up.

FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes

Because they went bigger in the off-season, I’m mostly looking to see what Dallas does in this one. As for San Jose, I didn’t get to them in the uncompleted series mourned above, but they haven’t finished in the Top 10 of the league since 2013. They have a long road to walk to get past some form of broken.

Houston Dynamo FC v Sporting Kansas City

I just like this one. Results be damned, I see both teams as stubborn dark horses and obstacles for the better teams to get over in the 2024 post-season. Also, could be anything between the dourest goalless draw and a free-for-all that leaves both teams gasping. I'd like to see this blossom into a side-rivalry, honestly.

St. Louis CITY FC v Real Salt Lake

Because I have them down for some form of regression, I’m calling this game show time for St. Louis. In that context, starting with anything less than a win against a long-travelling RSL team counts as a stumble, even if a semi-meaningless one.

Portland Timbers v Colorado Rapids

I’ll post a longer preview on reddit, but to give the short version, I’m calling this Portland’s dignity versus the Rapids fairly ambitious rebuild. As noted in the 2024 preview posted elsewhere on this site, I’ve got some anxiety about how my Portland Timbers start the season. As such, I’m quietly grateful I can’t take this one in live. (Hot date with the wife; no apologies.)

FC Cincinnati v Toronto FC

Doesn’t remotely fucking matter, at least not now. Cincy plays Cavalier F.C. – who based on what little I know about them are a fuck. ing. tiny Jamaican club – three days earlier, so they’ve got the “but the travel” excuse in their back pocket. Very much related, the punditocracy will sing that tune in four-part harmony until Toronto has won…let’s go with 4 games out of ten, if with a healthy sprinkling of draws, and Cincy has lost…let’s go with less than 7 points from their opening six games.

Nashville SC v Red Bull New York

Can’t say I care, and that’s sad. A Battle Royale between two teams on the eternal grind, aka, a purgatory where joy and creativity go to die. I’m still on expecting both teams to make and ruin the playoffs.

Los Angeles Galaxy v Inter Miami CF

I expect every game involving Miami will be treated like the Bolshoi doing the Dance of the Sugar Plum Fairies until Messi coasts into a buy-three-of-my-own-islands career shilling for every marketable brand on the planet, but this game couldn’t matter less. If LA wins, everyone will say Miami was tired. If Miami wins…let’s just say I refuse to read a word of copy on that bullshit until the Galaxy gets its defense sorted out.

That’s it for this one. See all y’all for the next swing on the flippity-flop (i.e., the New York Times has been a bit of clowns-how for decades.)