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| Keep climbing! It gets easier! (Plus extra points!) |
The Basics
6-4-5, 23 pts., 20 gf, 18 ga (+2); home 5-1-2, away 1-3-3, 5th West, 10th overall
Last 10: WWLWWTLWWT
Venue: AHHAAHAHHA
My GOD, I love data! For instance, if you just had Austin’s record, you’d see that 6-2-2 over their past 10 games and have every reason to brace for a hiding. If you poked around, say, the Form Guide, you’d see that Austin only loss at home came all the way back at MLS Week 1 (versus Minnesota – and who hasn’t done that this season?), that the two draws came shortly thereafter, and that’s been nothing but Ws since.
If you look a little longer, say, walk through the teams Austin have beat at home – in order, FC Dallas, San Jose, the Galaxy, Houston, then Sporting KC – or that the 15 goals for and 10 goals against over the past 10 games tighten to just six goals for and five goals over the past five games, you'd start to wonder. They still went 2-2-1 over that five-game stretch, sturdy, sure, but the hill to climb shrinks a little every time you look at it. Next thing you know you’re seeing stats pop up in broadcast – e.g., the Head to Head going into the win over Houston that showed Austin’s xG differential at -8.6. I don’t want to oversell that narrative – not least because Portland’s checks all the boxes for being the next team to stumble into Q2 Stadium (aka, Austin’s home ground) and face-plant on the field. And that 1-5-2 road record only makes you wonder just how hard their face will hit it.
But for that horse-fly in the ointment, this one looks wide-open. With that, let’s get back to Austin.
The Team
All-time head coach/impressive-chin possessor, Josh Wolff, does not deviate from the 4-2-3-1, and Brad Stuver always starts in goal (you’ll hear “STUUUV” every time he makes a save). Moreover, Wolff sticks with most of the same players, which include:
Back Four (left to right, as always, because America)
I believe the preferred lineup goes Zan Kolmanic at right back, Brendan Hines-Ike and Julio Cascante as the starting center backs, and Jon Gallagher on the right. That said, Guilherme Biro started over Kolmanic in a couple games I watched (good shot on that guy, btw) and Hector Jimenez (who is 35!) started over Gallagher. That’s a sturdy unit, particularly with Stuver behind them. That 1.0 goals/game over their past 10 (and the past five) didn’t happen on accident and all of those fullbacks get forward pretty damn well. Gallagher’s seems preferred when available, fwiw.
Defensive Midfield Two
A youngster named Jhojan Valenica started over Alexander Ring (who’s Finnish somehow) versus SKC, but Wolff goes with Ring and fourth-year pro Daniel Pereira often as not. That gives Austin a dynamic foundation, even if it’s a little vulnerable; wish I had time (or interest) in poking around the Austin FC subreddit, but it’s a short week. Oh, and Ring leads Austin for assists with four.
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| The world from Rigoni's perspective |
Austin moved on from Emiliano Rigoni last week (bought out his contract) so forgot him (too late, amirite!), so Austin has leaned into set-up they used when he was absent/possibly interviewing for new jobs, (coach’s son) Owen Wolff on the left (same epic chin), former Dallas prospect Jader Obrian on the right, and Sebastian Driussi…more or less running the show between them. Driussi is their leading goal scorer, with five goals and an assist (I’ll get to the ellipses below) and O. Wolff comes second on assists, but Obrian has had a good stretch lately (4g, 2a). Also, Obrian is FAST, like league-elite fast, and he’ll be terrorizing Portland’s left if they invite him with a high line.
The Cherry on Top
Long-time MLS journeyman/eternal hyper-puppy, Diego Rubio. He does a lot of the same things that Felipe Mora does, only with more energy and less accuracy. Still, he’s highly likely to be a royal pain in the ass. Gyasi Zardes (yeah, that guy!) has played a super-sub role – pretty well too.
Overall, what I’ve seen from Austin tells me they’re solid at the back, but you can scramble them if you approach them just so (not quite a cat when you grab it by the scruff, but they do kinda lay down). They’re capable coming out of the back, but the strays and miscommunications ramp up the closer they get to goal. That said, see number two in the next section
Three Things I’d Tell People About Austin FC
1) The Press ‘n’ Rush
Austin pressed, if intermittently yet aggressively, over the long samples of the games I watched (v HOU, v SKC, at SJ), an obvious concern for a Timbers team that can get a little flustered (okay, fine, a lot flustered). Anytime they knocked the ball loose in a good position, it flipped a switch that sent four to five players fucking bolting en masse toward the opposing goal. It comes like an avalanche, no exaggeration, but it also goes so fast that Austin loses a handle on it often as not. Still, when they go, they GO. That’s just something to watch for, manage and deny.
2) Squeezing the Vise
As noted above, a fair amount of what Austin wants to do in the attack fizzles before setting off any fireworks (ooh, could an erectile dysfunction company use that euphemism?). On the occasions they do manage to set up camp inside the opposition half, Austin becomes very hard to dislodge. When that happens, Portland needs to worry about is giving up free kicks. I’m not saying Austin plays for fouls (no, seriously, it looks like they play for fouls), but they look most dangerous when they can set up a succession of freekicks in the opposition half. If nothing else, it led to this (v HOU) and this (@ SJ), which translated into three points and one, respectively. And, as Timbers fans should know, it doesn't have to look good.
3) About that Defensive Midfield Two…
I’ve watched Pereira a lot in the past couple weeks (see the SKC preview) and, just to throw it out there, I think he’s what Timbers fans hope to see David Ayala become. He joined MLS as a No. 1 draft pick and, based on everything I saw, he backed up the bet. He passes, he tackles, he tracks; he covers a Diego Chara-esque amount of ground (and the “esque” matters, because he doesn’t command the middle the way Chara did in his prime; also, still just 23), but he also adds more to the attack. And all long-time MLS fans should know Ring: on his day, I call him the best No. 6/8 tweener in MLS. These two provide the supple spine that makes Austin…pretty hard to press (though not impossible), and…reasonably solid defensively. That’s to say, I like Portland’s chances of getting one past them…so why not make it two, see what happens if this becomes a track meet? Hold on…
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| Time stops. The world stops. Everything stops. |
So, yeah, that’s one approach, clearly a tempting one. The other approach, perhaps even the wisest, has Portland daring Austin to beat them. Some of that falls under leaning into a transition game (again, and ssiiiiggghhhhh!), but Austin also shows no notable preference for staying on the ball, so maybe forcing them to carry the game lures them out of their comfort zone? Even if it doesn’t, playing a transition game gives Timbers attackers less time to re-enact...my gods, I can’t believe I just though of this, but the Timbers attack is the soccer equivalent of Portland drivers arriving at a four-way stop simultaneously. No one wants to do anything or get anywhere, apparently, and so on.
Again, this one’s tricky. Most of what I see tells me Austin has played above their heads for a while. So long as the Timbers don’t do anything stupid like invite Obrian into a footrace or feel to keep tabs on Driussi (who’s good, but not a wizard), Portland should have the time they need to get their special brand of…soccer going, which should get them some goals. Badly as Portland needs points, a draw in Austin would do just fine. Still, and the Curse de Tejas aside, I don’t think winning this game is out of the question.
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