The Loss v Charlotte FC, Wailing, Lamentations, and Acceptance

The cruelest serving.

You ever get to the end of a long-form math equation only to realize that you did something wrong somewhere and wound up with the wrong result? That’s what the past three match reports I’ve posted (here, here, and here) feel like after the Portland Timbers fucking bummer of a 0-2 loss at Charlotte FC. I’ll get return to the math problem, but let’s start by wrapping up what happened last Saturday with the brevity it deserves.

I don’t see the point of breaking this game down because the work of litigating what went wrong feels like writing the same thing for the…how many games has Portland played in 2024? Eleven? So, yeah, but for some time off early last month, I’d be flagging a lot of the same issues for the eleventh time.

Face-planting disasters in defense? Check! Hell, the Timbers got a two-fer-one out of Zac McGraw last Saturday (see all the way below for links). Struggles with ball progression? Covered! Not on the same page? They weren’t even reading the same goddamn book. It was so bad (how bad was it?), Charlotte’s Enzo Copetti scored a goal in open play. Timbers fans got a brimming plateful of more of the same, basically, only without the thrill of a late rally or the pain of watching an early lead slip away. Another week of dining in Hell’s cafeteria…

Over those past three match reports, I’ve pointed to a green shoot here (Felipe Mora’s back!), a bright spot there (the Timbers’ first complete game of 2024!), and maybe even sprinkled some fairy dust around both to brighten them up a little (Evander will know what to do!). Again, and I cannot possibly stress this enough, the set of problems outlined above has appeared in some form or another in every game this season and the sum of the green shoots + bright spots – (the same problems X 11) = 12th in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference and 24th overall.

Where is the line between looking past bad results and ignoring them? Is it still a green shoot if it doesn’t grow?

I’m going to close this post with something stupid, deflating and quite possibly pointless – i.e., relive/review all 23 goals allowed by the Timbers this season, and there’s a non-masochistic reason for that – but I want to close this second section (the blurb about the Charlotte loss was the first section) by kicking out a series of observations about where the Timbers seem to be right around the 1/3 mark of the 2024 season. We all have that friend who “tells it like it is” - aka, an asshole – and some of these observations, if not most, will have that vibe, starting with this one:

I’ve talked myself into believing things about individual Timbers players and the roster as a whole that come more from that place of belief than anything I’ve seen on the field. I’ll get to chapter, though probably not verse, later.

The Timbers are not a good passing team. Period. That doesn’t mean the players don’t connect the odd great pass, or that they’re incapable of putting together a smart attacking sequence; it means that they collectively lack confidence on the ball and, as a result, suck at using it to control and/or pace the game. It has been like this for years, quite possibly since Diego Valeri’s legs gave out.

Related, and I’m going to borrow a passage from Jeremy Peterman’s/Cascadia FC’s match recap from the Charlotte game for this:

“The Timbers like to keep their shape in possession. There really isn’t any off-ball movement from any attackers trying to make space for themselves.”

Adapt or get used to the view.

I want people to just…digest those two sentences. I’ve long struggled to understand what the Timbers do in possession, and to the point to where I never once considered that it followed from an active thought process. On the field, it creates a pattern of play Peterman calls “incredibly easy for opposing teams to defend,” but an elaboration is clarifying here: this means the defenders know exactly where most of Portland Timbers attacking players are and where they’ll stay in relation to one another. If this is something they “like,” that is straight-up coaching malpractice in my book.

The ”coach v roster” comes up any time a team is struggling. That one has burned hot or hotter since two years before Gio Savarese’s sacking and we’ve seen the light of it burning on the horizon for as long as Phil Neville has been coach. I just feel like this needs to be acknowledged because…

When one (or I) suggests that the Timbers move the ball more quickly, or just use the ball generally, others will push back, arguing that Portland doesn’t have the players to make that work. I can’t reconcile that argument with a belief that the Timbers have a good roster, never mind a competitive one.

[Sidebar: can, say, Wilfred Nancy take a two-month sabbatical, so that we can test the coach/roster theory?]

One reason I like David Ayala: I see him making the kinds of “brave passes” that a good ball-playing team needs to make – i.e., balls into and out of tight spaces. He needs to raise the defensive side of his game, e.g., predicting what’s coming and being in position to stop it, but I worry about Portland’s approach to the game stunting the best part of his game.

I’ve seen Cristhian Paredes move off the ball at the top of the attacking third as well as any Timber in 2024. That has created some real openings, but, due to his various technical limitations, Paredes ain’t the player to exploit them.

This feels like something of a general problem, one that extends to Santiago Moreno and Antony. Like Paredes, and even Ayala, both of those players put in the work, but I struggle to see a lucrative move to Europe, never mind even semi-regular appearances in the MLS Best XI line-ups that follow every MLS Week. For what it’s worth, these players are the origin story behind the stuff above about green shoots, bright spots and fairy dust.

Related, and at the heart of all the above, is there a succession plan for Diego Chara’s retirement?

Finally, and to tie all of the above together, if Portland can find a reliable way to get the ball into the midfield that doesn't require Evander dropping all the way into Portland’s defensive third, maybe he can start playing like something closer to a traditional No. 10. Whether that’s starting Eryk Williamson deeper (whether he likes it or not) and pairing him with another No. 8 or dropping a pure(r) No. 6 behind him, I don’t care. If the Timbers can’t find some way to break through pressure up the center, I see a long painful future of lobbing half hopeless balls high and wide to Moreno, Antony and Juan David Mosquera.

And yet, whatever they backstop the midfield with has to do that, plus provide frontal cover for what has so far been Portland’s worst defense in the past six seasons. And, honestly, this gets kinda wild, if in all the wrong ways. Here are the Timbers goals allowed averages for each of the past six seasons:

2018: 1.41 goals/game allowed
2019: 1.44 goals/game allowed
2020: 1.51 goals/game allowed (yes, even in a short season)
2021: 1.53 goals/game allowed
2022: 1.59 goals/game allowed
2023: 1.71 goals/game allowed

Any guesses as to how they’re doing so far in 2024?

Answer: 2.09 goals/game allowed

I searched "tooth fairy Easter bunny" and...what the fuck?

Remember how excited you were to see Kamal Miller and a posse of new goalkeepers in town? Does it feel like the Easter Bunny just ate the Tooth Fairy to you yet?

With allowances for the fact that Portland’s whole-season average for 2024 has a better-than-average chance of going down – though, just to note it, they’re on pace to allow just over 71 goals this season if they can’t right the ship (the record’s 75, btw, go Cincy!) – that six-season trend doesn’t reflect well on The Program. So, with that in mind, let’s look back on the 23 goals the Timbers have allowed – and, in some cases, invited – so far this season, listed by the game.

Portland Timbers 4-1 Colorado Rapids
57th minute, Calvin Harris
Set-piece goal, marking looked zonal, Chara was the last player close to Harris, but even he was behind on the play.
Notes: Giving up the goal didn’t matter, but the bad half it came in foretold the softness to come…

Portland Timbers 2-2 DC United
72nd minute, Mateusz Klich
Penalty kick (slow fucker too), given for a handball off Chara’s arm, which he had raised in the hopes of getting the ref to call offside (start watching at 4:32 in the full highlights to see it).
82nd, Christian Fletcher
Plenty of blame to go around – e.g., the far side was wide open and there was a ‘keeper/defender pile-up at the near post – Mosquera gave Fletcher a tap-in despite being in a good position and knowing he was lurking with intent.
Notes: Portland took an early lead that one always sensed would evaporate.

New York City FC 1-2 Portland Timbers
10th minute, Santi Rodriguez
Off a corner, and on the third or fourth attempt. Helluva finish by Rodriguez, so hard to hate on this one.
Notes: Barely remember this one, not least because the Timbers came back, if very, very late. And, my gods, they had a +4 goal differential – which gets to why I’m betting the average will improve.

Houston Dynamo FC 1-0 Portland Timbers
43rd minute, Aliyu Ibrahim
The one that saw Mosquera and Crepeau cancel one another out by competing for the same ball. Excusable in both directions, because I’m not sure Crepeau had time to call off Mosquera.
Notes: Fwiw, the only other time Portland didn’t score this season.

Portland Timbers 1-3 Philadelphia Union
28th minute, Julian Carranza
Set-piece goal, another zonal marking thing, Carranza found a seam and Timbers defenders worked against one another. Again.
58th minute, Quinn Sullivan
Mosquera got doubled on the right and Antony was late to cover, giving Jeremy Rafanello all day for a shot; he fires, Crepeau can only parry it wide…and Eric Miller was a long step behind on the rebound.
67th minute, Carranza
Came off a free-kick near the center stripe. Philly took a quick corner and everyone lost Mikael Uhre and Carranza running buck-necked up the middle.
Notes: The first bed-shitting loss of 2024, no question. Portland got outplayed all over the place and the goal differential went negative and never went back…

Vancouver Whitecaps 3-2 Portland Timbers
2nd minute, Ryan Gauld
Mosquera in decent position, just got beat by Ali Ahmed. The midfield (Chara) got behind Gauld’s run, but McGraw was in decent position to block his intended cross; sadly, the ball bounced straight back to Gauld, who beat Crepeau at the near-post.
29th minute, Fafa Picault
Ball went up the right, Eric Miller’s over the center stripe trying to stop the pass, Chara’s late to cover, the ball goes behind, the cross comes in, McGraw tries to back-heel it out, falls to Picault, who Mosquera utterly failed to track.
87th minute, Ryan Raposo
Mosquera stepped up, got beat, but Dario Zuparic whiffed a clearance he had lined up, Crepeau bobbled the ball and Raposo beat two or three ball-watching defenders to the rebound.
Notes: The first comeback thwarted by a collective defensive brainfart.

Sporting Kansas City 3-3 Portland Timbers [Ed. – I missed this one]
13th minute, Willie Agada
Erik Thommy took a seam into Zone 14 between a largely disinterested Antony, but (I think) Eric Miller stepped along with the rest of the midfield, which left Agada free about 20 yards from goal.
38th minute, Dany Rosero
Scored off a corner, 1,000% zonal marking, which clearly needs to fucking stop. If Portland keeps it up, every team should have their biggest player watch what Rosero did here.
45+3, Agada
A set-piece played to the back post – the right side, fwiw, but it was Eric Miller covering it, not Mosquera – and he’s just as far behind as every other Timbers defender. This one scrambled the set of categories below, but I’m filing this one under “napping” instead of set-pieces.
Notes: The first comeback that let Timbers fans dare to dream.

Portland Timbers 2-2 Los Angeles FC
22nd minute, Mateusz Bogusz
Kind of a global bad-marking situation - i.e., no one got close to Tillman until it was too late and Bogusz stepped into a boulevard that just got wider when Miguel Araujo stepped to cover the near pass.
51st minute, Bogusz
The free-kick followed from the controversial foul/red card on Crepeau – so the questions there go to whether neither Araujo nor Kamal Miller covered Denis Bouanga’s run (starting watching this at 3:40) - but Bogusz just hit it worldie.
Notes: One of Portland’s better recent performances, honestly. A glimpse at a better future that Crepeau's sending off denied their fans from seeing…

Columbus Crew SC 2-2 Portland Timbers
51st minute, Cucho Hernandez
Primarily a failure to manage an overload up Portland’s left – mostly by way of Evander letting Diego Rossi loop around his shoulder (and, swear to gods, he sees him and lets him go) – and, admittedly, Mosquera failing to see one of the best forwards in the league. Another tough one to classify, but I’m going with “napping” due to the collective failure.
74th minute, Steven Moreira
You just take your hat off on this one. Evander was even closing the space. That one goes in, like once in 30 attempts.
Notes: It took that goal to beat the Timbers. Swear to gods, we weren’t seeing things…

Los Angeles FC 3-2 Portland Timbers
44th minute, Kamal Miller (Own-Goal)
Swear to GOD, if I see one more defender raise his fucking hand for offside instead of following the fucking play. Mosquera was the prime culprit here, and Araujo scrambled nicely, but Kamal Miller got his angle wrong on a tricky clearance. Called this one a Mosquera blunder, fwiw.
45+4, Timothy Tillman (had to reference the full highlights here; start at 2:30)
Looks like a counter (Portland only had three defenders back), but Claudio Bravo was able to stand up Cristian Olivera. Unfortunately the midfield sank back to cover the area, leaving Tillman (who played a great game) wide open for a free shot to the back post.
90+2, Bouanga
Again, fuck zonal marking forever, because it left four or five Timbers defenders guarding the six-yard line instead Kei Kamara, who fired a header that Crepeau could only slap away. The rebound rolled out to Bouanga, who pinged the second shot of the night off Crepeau’s back post.

Charlotte FC 2-0 Portland Timbers
54th minute, Nikola Petkovic
Feel like this one’s on Paredes. Gods know what he thought he should be covering besides Petkovic’s run, but he decided to point it out to Zac McGraw instead, who got depantsed in front of God and all by Petkovic’s first touch.
90+1, Copetti
How the hell did I miss the fact that Mosquera threw this one away with a throw-in to a highly-exposed McGraw. All Copetti had to do was poke the ball past McGraw (and Copetti was closer from the jump) and finish near-post v Crepeau.

Those are all the goals and the notes thereon. Here’s the final count of how the Timbers allowed them, by a loose category:

Set Pieces: 5
Mosquera’s Fault (Mostly): 4
Stupid PK: 1 (Chara’s handball)
Miscommunication: 4
Collective Napping: 9
No Fault: 1 (Moreira’s banger)

To answer a pretty reliable gripe I see on the Timbers subreddit, sure, Mosquera gets beat and leaves space behind him, but, when it comes to the goals actually scored, he’s less of a problem than 1) a manifestly stupid approach to set pieces and 2) players switching off all over the field. The moral of the story: fullbacks get beat and it’s up to the rest of the team to cover when they do. And, clearly, at least two or three issues in the above recital need to get fixed because, for all the success Portland has had with scoring two goals per game, they’ve scored three goals just twice all season – once in the opening blowout over a now-better Colorado team and, again, in the comeback at SKC.

For what it’s worth, reliving all the games and goals made me feel safer about seeing the Charlotte loss as an aberration, if one with an outsized potential to hurt them down the road. At this point, there’s nothing to do but lace up for the next game and make it count.

Till then…