Seattle Sounders Scouting Report: Prepping for a Knife Fight in the Gutter

I don't know, we just seem to have so much in common...

[UPDATE/PSA: I tried to create the usual mini-post/pop quiz for this post on reddit, but shit got weird and it just kind of sat there doing nothing for four or five hours. As such, I said "fuck it" and deleted the reddit post. I may still bounce around in there, maybe even post something of my own occasionally (so long as those go live, or whatever happens in the guts of reddit), but I'm not going try to navigate whatever weird bar they have for posting links to original content. Basically, the only place you'll find links to posts to this site is Bluesky. Until that platform explodes, implodes, or whatever verb applies to social media sites when they die their righteous and probably well-justified death.] 

Well, let’s see how many things I can get wrong this week…happily, I can't fuck up the facts. Right?

The Basics
The Record: 2-5-4 (hello, sexy!), 10 pts., home 1-1-3, away 1-4-1, 13 gf, 13 ga (0)
Last 10 Games: TTLLWTLLWT
Strength of Schedule: Literally a couple loin-stirring wins – e.g., a 5-0 blowout over Club du Foot Montreal back in Week 6, place a recent road win at a puzzling Philadelphia Union team – with free points squandered all around - e.g., home draws v Austin FC and the Colorado Rapids before they found their feet, a road draw at FC Dallas (who cough up points like a busted one-armed bandit), and a road loss at perennial no-hopers, San Jose Earthquakes. Suffice to say the might have fallen - and, golly, isn't it a hoot?

In what feels like a total-eclipse-like rarity, Seattle and the Portland Timbers share the same shitty overall record, but Seattle holds a thin edge in the standings thanks to neutral goal differential. They built that shaky foundation by allowing ten fewer goals on one side, while scoring eight less on the other. And, holy shit, are the natives restless up there…

The Lineup
Brian Schmetzer has ride or die committed to the 4-2-3-1 regardless of who he has on hand – though, honestly, he seems deeply committed to the same starters despite the poor returns. The first-choice back four typically features (left to right) Nouhou, Yeimar, Jackson Regan, and Alex Roldan – but Roldan the Younger has missed the last few games and, from what I understand, Yeimar will miss Sunday’s game (and there was great rejoicing). The deeper midfield two has generally involved Josh Atencio and, anytime he can walk, Joao Paulo, with Obed Vargas filling in when he can't, while the preferred, higher midfield three features (left to right) Jordan Morris, Albert Rusnak, and Cristian Roldan. And, topping it all off, like the star on your Christmas tree, Raul Ruidiaz.

If many of those names seem familiar to the point of where you’re sick of seeing them, Sounders fans have your back. If you turn your ear north and listen carefully, you may hear clamoring for a youth movement…

Notes from Sounders Sources
“Is there much value in dissecting the result? No, not really. It’s the same boring and lackluster performance we’ve come accustom to this season. The mojo is gone. The vibes are bad. Time is running out.”

I feel you, Sounder at Heart. Even through the mutual hostility, we’re singing from the same sheet.

Moving on to some choice quotes from a post-game thread on the Sounders subreddit after the goal-less draw versus a rotated Los Angeles Galaxy last weekend:

“Pathetic. Why not send a message, bench Morris and Albert. Start Moose and more of the kids. Our starting attackers (minus Ruidiaz) are completely stagnant.”
- LucasAmericano

“If the goal was 5’ wider and 10’ taller, we would have scored at least 18 times by my count.”
- gecampbell

Someone posting as PeperonyNChease gives the most thorough rundown (2nd post down on his/her profile), but this jab at Albert Rusnak speaks to something you see from different players again and again:

“That’s what I like to call ‘the Rusnak effect.’ He’s on a breakaway and spent the whole time looking backwards. Dude is an absolute cancer on the attack.”
- TheSafetyLemur

All the above very much relates to this…

Key Players
Raul Ruidiaz leads the Sounders on 6 goals and one assist, though it’s worth noting that four of his goals came from penalty kicks (moral of the story, don’t give the Sounders a penalty), while the other two goals have a stopped-clock quality to them (i.e., he misses those 99 times in 100 times of trying). Things dry up pretty quickly from there – e.g., four players on one goal and one assist each (Morris, Leo Chu, Obed Vargas (one of the rare popular starters), and Danny “Moose” Musovski), and Ruznak and Roldan chipping in with three and two assists a piece, but no goals. It’s taking a committee and functioning as smoothly as actual committees do.

Notes from Video Review
I spent most of my time on Seattle’s short-turnaround win over Philly (~60 minutes), but dragged myself through 50+ minutes of the home draw against the Galaxy and poked around the highlights from the Montreal blowout and the red-card-drunk home loss against the Whitecaps (when they lost Regan and Roldan).

To cut their one big result down to size, Seattle caught Montreal on a disastrous night (one of their defenders, Joe Waterman, gifted them a couple), but you do get a decent look of them at their best on the third and fourth goals they scored. And yet, the fact this one game accounts for 5/13th of Seattle’s goal output on the season speaks to the issue that has Seattle fans seething. The red cards probably spoiled the data from the home loss to Vancouver, as did the fact that the ‘Caps forced both goals by pressing high, something the Timbers seldom try and rarely do well when they do. Still…maybe?

Easily the best thing I saw.

Unfortunately, both the Galaxy draw and the win at Philly come with caveats – e.g., a gently-rotated lineup for LA in the former (e.g., no Puig, no Joveljic) and short rest (aka, a Tuesday game) for both teams in the latter. Some habits still came through, though, most notably a high and aggressive defensive line. That paid off early against Philly - even if it took one of Ruidiaz’s wild ones for the first goal and a succession of happy accidents to create the second – and building an early three-goal lead paid off smartly in a game where everyone’s legs crapped out. Philly got their chances and pushed the game to 3-2, but Seattle are in the top half of MLS defensively for a reason. Going the other way, it’s hard to translate how the Galaxy succeeded in breaking Seattle’s press because, even with an A/B team on the field, LA passed out of Seattle’s pressure really comfortably – something I can’t see the Timbers doing, because I haven’t seen them do it so far. When the opposition forced them back, Seattle appeared to compact into narrow block to plug up the center, but then pushed the play toward the sidelines, using them to throttle the space. Of note, that opened space in the middle – which is where both Philly and LA found their best openings.

On the attacking side, the Sounders seem to have a big thing overloads, up to and including stuffing four, even five players between the channel and the sideline and just working it. The smoothest approaches saw them feeding a through-ball to a player looping around the fullback, but they’re content to probe and probe until they can get a player behind with his head up to either cut it back centrally or whip a cross to the back post. Again, this hasn’t gone great for them so far this season, even if it fucked up Montreal pretty good. Finally, the Sounders had a reasonably sharp transitions against Philly; they knew where to play the ball to get it going, at least, even if their tired legs couldn’t carry them to glory in that one. And now…

Talking Points/Loose Theories
1) Do NOT Give Up a (Fucking) Lead
And, yes, I mean this to the point of taking a draw if it comes to that. I, like you, have seen the Timbers come back a couple times this season – sometimes by quite a ways down – and maybe the loss at Charlotte spooked me more than it should have, but 1) I’m struggling to see them doing it against a defense as sturdy as Seattle’s and 2) the thought of seeing a third straight “L” in the Form Guide has my knees shaking. That said, Portland needs to play this game with…

2) Derby Intensity
I expect the Timbers to lean into their bunker-counter tradition (but, what the hell, surprise and delight us by attempting a press), but I still want to see them play it with the aggression cranked to 11. I want them to draw a line and treat literally everything that crosses it, whether ball or player, like a flaming threat to hearth and home. The same goes from when they break out: I hope to see Portland players running like they’re fleeing hell, battling through anyone who attempts to stop them, and never getting beat to a pass or a loose ball.

3) Be Prepared for a Press
Who knows? Maybe Schmetzer mixes it up and invites Portland to beat them? I’d be surprised to see that, though, because why wouldn’t Seattle press this Timbers team? Assuming that’s what happens, Portland players should avoid fucking around in the area and, loathe as I am to type this, they shouldn’t be shy about playing it safe – up to and including playing the ball away and out of bounds.

Roll 1, 2, and 3 together and you get an approach that I’d call “aggressive conservatism.”

4) Channels, Channels, Channels
Per the notes on overloads above, the Sounders like playing passes into the gaps between the center backs and fullbacks. Portland’s midfielders will need to be extra vigilant when it comes to tracking the run/pass combo that teed up a goal for Vancouver’s Ryan Gauld.

5) Crosses/No Zonal Marking
After Rusnak, Morris is the player I see get kicked around most by Sounders fans. I actually know someone who works in the Sounders org and, just last weekend, he delivered a solid five-minute spot on how half-present (he’s a new dad, apparently) and cripplingly one-footed Morris is. To top all that off, he’s misfiring the chances he gets, but one thing bears strenuous stressing: Morris is getting those chances, particularly on crosses from Seattle’s right and he’s getting in the space between the fullback and the center back, or running inside the center back to meet them. He can’t miss ‘em all, folks.

I’ll cut things off here. All in all, what we have here is the need for a win meeting a burning desire for the same. It’s hard to imagine taking much consolation from anything less than three points, so here’s to hoping we all get a pass on poking at that steaming shit sandwich.

In other news, and as noted elsewhere, I’m thinking of pouring most of my energy into clocking external threats to the Portland Timbers success and happiness – i.e., making these scouting reports and updates from around the league the long-form writing I do in this space, as opposed to match reports. Alternatively, I may just shrink the summary on the post-game notes and focus on posting something like three talking points/questions.

I’m not turning cold on the Timbers (or no more than usual), but writing what feels like the same post week after week is really throttling the enthusiasm. At any rate, I’ll keep all y’all posted.