Sporting Kansas City Scouting Report: On Nervous Cornered Animals

You don't this Portland...wait. Maybe you do...

When I first sat down to type this, I thought Sporting Kansas City hosted this one. They don’t, of course, and that only makes this game the most-winniest of the season so far for the Portland Timbers. If the Timbers can’t win this one, what’s there left to do but cast all the spells and sacrifice all the goats necessary to keep the New England Revolution between Portland and The Wooden Spoon?

Now, to dig into why that is:

The Basics
2-6-5, 11 pts., 21 gf, 24 ga (-3); home 1-3-3, away 1-3-2; 13th in West, 23rd overall
Last 10: WLWTLTLLLL
Venue: HHAHHHAAHA

Like the Timbers, basically, only a little worse on offense and a little better defensively, but with the same gently underwater goal differential.

Even then, the “little better defensively” needs adjusting. SKC have allowed two goals or more in seven of their past 10 games and, bluntly, they don’t look good defensively. Based on some recent highlights (home draw v St. Louis, home loss v Houston, and the road loss at Minnesota) and vast swaths of last weekend’s loss at Austin FC, SKC hands out good looks like sweet, sweet candy – up to 5+ primo chances per game. Set-piece defending is a problem – just over 1/3 of all goals allowed - and they have given up a bushel of points (bushel=14 points) from leading positions. And that was before dropping some more at Austin.

Despite all the above, (far too) long-time head coach Peter Vermes only seems to change his starting XI when injuries or disciplinary actions make him. He recently flirted with a 4-2-3-1, but I see a lot of 4-3-3 in SKC’s past and that’s what Vermes rolled with in the last two road games as well. That 4-3-3 has been populated like so in recent weeks (the steadiest regulars are bolded):

Goalkeeper: Tim Melia, always
Back 4 (left to right):
Zorhan Bassong (Canadian, former Montreal, got some time abroad), recently supplanted Tim Leibold; one center back position has alternated between Dany Rosero (large, aggressive), Robert Voloder (no notes) and Robert Castellanos (low on depth chart, but looked good!), while Abreu Fontas has consistently held down the other spot; Jacob Davis looks preferred at right back, especially with the injuries the other options.
Middle Three
With Remi Walter questionable, I expect to see what Vermes started against Austin, i.e. (from left to right), Erik Thommy, Nemanja Radoja, and Memo Rodriguez. If Walter can go, maybe that’s what triggers the switch to the 4-2-3-1 with Radoja and him at the 2, but who knows?
Top Three (left to right)
Daniel Salloi, Alan Pulido, and Johnny Russell looks like the first choice, but, when Russell was out (again), Vermes dropped Salloi and Pulido into a three-man attacking set with Thommy as the third high-set mid and Willie Agada running in front of it all. It didn’t look like a terrible, fwiw.

A lot going on with that mustache.

SKC spreads the wealth among those players with Thommy (4 goals, 1 assist), Agada (3 goals, 2 assists) and Pulido (3 goals, 1 assist) leading the way, and, little curveball, Rodriguez leading the team on assists with four. That’s to say, Portland doesn’t need to key on one player, so much as they need to manage the strengths of those players, to wit:

- Don’t let Thommy fire from range (dude’s got a hammer with sniper scope when left alone);
- Salloi can both run around and behind the defense, and fires readily and well from range;
- Pulido makes smart runs, plays well with others in the attacking third, and has a good shot; and
- Agada runs against the backline, finishes...all right, but needs service.

Russell’s been around long enough to where I think Timbers fans know what to expect from him; think that, with a little less threat and a little more commitment. Despite the collective fondness for firing from range (alert, alert, Timbers midfielders!), SKC mixes up the approaches pretty well for a team that fired 10 shots or fewer in half the games I watched. Overall, expect an attack that’s more methodical than high-octane; while they can go direct, their preferred approach involved getting on the ball and shifting a defense around. SKC seems to take a ball-dominant approach when they can…which segues nicely to…

What I Expect Them to Do Against Portland
While SKC can press, I wouldn’t call them good at it: I didn’t see the defense push up to support it much and they typically give up after the second or third pass. They did manage to organize a pretty sturdy block against Austin, even if it fell apart, and that’s what I expect to see against the Timbers.

Three Things I’d Tell People About SKC
1) SKC Lives in Their Own Heads, on D More than O
They have a pretty vivid “oh fuck, oh fuck, oh fuck” vibe when defending, one that Timbers fans should relate to – and the panic burns red hot when the ball turns over in midfield. To their credit, SKC handles the ball pretty well when they're on it and seem comfortable playing a generally ball-dominant system. Given that, I hope to see the Timbers hit SKC hard and fast every time they get on the ball, while I hope to see something...more nuanced defensively, i.e., the usual prescription of drawing a hard line of confrontation, while otherwise leaving them free to dick around all day on the other side of it.

2) Fuck Minding the Gaps, Attack Them!!
While they’re pretty good about dropping into a compact block that moves between middle and low, any time they press, SKC has a helpful tendency of allowing their lines to separate, whether between the forward players and the midfield, or the midfield and the defense - and, to be clear, I saw this open to a chasm on several occasions. Limited as the dataset was, I saw multiple (as in four) teams find success just by having their players step beyond their mark and hunt for spaces to receive the ball. SKC left some big, damaging ones too.

3) Balls Over the Top
SKC unlocked some of their best moments by playing balls over the top to attacking players pushing against the back line. They have players with decent speed – e.g., Salloi, whichever fullbacks they choose to start, and even Russell – which allows those players to either run forward as the space allows or to pull it back to Thommy and (depending on where he lines up) Pulido. The latter explains all those shots from range, btw.

I hesitate to say what the Timbers make of all that, if for no better reason than they’ve struggled so hard to seize either day or control in so many games this season. Counseling patience seems like the last thing for any sane coach to suggest or run with, and it seems even weirder for an amateur pundit because shouldn’t we swing for the fences, rationality and past (shitty) results be damned?

For what it’s worth, I’d prefer to see Portland gamble on SKC’s fragile confidence and home field advantage, ran at them like well-drilled berserkers, bury them early as possible, and ride out what will, by then and ideally, be a three-goal lead (fingers crossed so hard I might throw up). Just get at them, basically, if primarily around the midfield stripe and closer to Portland’s goal. Don’t try pressing – I’ve been underwhelmed by every attempt Portland has made at that – but stay aggressive and, gods willing connected. If I thought they had any other advantages (e.g., set pieces?) I’d name them, but I got nuthin’ beyond what’s above.