MLS Week 32 Preview: Stakes, and How Much They Matter

Fun image. Older image (look who's missing).

As I look over the match-ups for Major League Soccer’s Week 32, I’m seeing a good number of games that matter, but fewer games that I have any reason to expect to be good. To put a sharper edge on that, few of these results will be important, at least beyond the hopes and dreams of the local fan base. Here’s a compare/contrast that makes the point: Real Salt Lake v. Portland Timbers involves two teams with something to play for, and, even if neither team plays all that well, the stakes will make every kick, no matter how unfortunate, matter a little more, and all those things make this a good game simply because it exists; by way of contrast – and I’ve got several options, so let’s go with… - FC Dallas v. Orlando requires the result itself to be of any interest to anyone outside the Dallas metro area and (or, given where they play) its exurbs. For anyone wondering, yes, I omitted Orlando from the locus of locations that give a rat’s ass about this result.

All in all, I put the total number of games that match RSL v. Portland (i.e., “good because it’s important”) at three of Week 32’s 11 games; Toronto FC v. Vancouver Whitecaps makes a quiet case for bumping that up to four games, but another, more persuasive case exists for treating both teams’ hopes for the playoffs like Canada’s chances for reaching the World Cup. Appropriately.

In the rest of this post I’ll briefly preview all of Week 32’s games –RSL v. Portland gets a little extra and goes first, because, fan! I’ll direct most of the notes to expectations, as opposed to questions of tactics, “hot” players (play, not looks, except where noted), or other granular things that I don’t really know about. I pull these assumptions out of two places: 1) the rolling monument to my neuroses that I call The Form Guide ULTRA (Week 31's), and 2) my ass. Moving on…

If you’re a Portland Timbers fan, you should be worried about their chances away to RSL on Saturday – and mostly because RSL holds most of the cards, if not all of them. That’s not a call for panic – four points separate the Timbers from the abyss, after all, and the chasing Los Angeles Galaxy has its own Death Race 2000 to run (see below) – but the track records for both teams, both season-long and current, lean in RSL’s favor. “Tilt” is the correct verb, because this isn’t toddler versus dumptruck: in terms of patterns, this pits 3-5-2 in their last 10 games for Portland, against 4-2-4 for RSL; and impressive as RSL’s nearly 2.0 goals per game over that same period looks, their 19 goals for over that period get massive padding from their back-to-back six-goal games against the Colorado Rapids away and the Galaxy at home. That doesn’t make those results any less impressive (or timely), but wisdom points to treating outliers as such when you play with numbers.

Still, some numbers matter more than others, among them: Portland is 0-4-1 on the road in their last 10 games, and that team hasn’t won on the road since the last day of June; they’re punching below even their 3-7-5 overall 2018 record, a wrong-way trend. The trends for RSL, meanwhile, track upward or, at worst, hold steady: their 2-0-2 recent home record doesn’t fall too far their 10-1-4 overall home record, and they’ve consistently bested their “lessers” (e.g., teams with weaker or marginal records) lately, also unlike Portland (who’ve gone 2-3-1 against teams of the same quality). Yeah, yeah, whatever you think of stats in soccer, one of these teams is getting it right lately (RSL), while the other is not (Portland).

From a style of play/personnel perspective, I can only talk about Portland with any knowledge, while passing on second-hand impressions and what I’ve seen in the highlights from RSL. The most important impression I’ve gathered is that RSL’s young defense has stabilized; I’ve also heard chatter that they’ve either sorted out or found fresh attacking options (e.g., Deimar Kreilach and Jefferson Savarino), and that’s given familiar faces a new lease on career (e.g., Joao Plata); and, for what it’s worth, I’m hoping/dreading that Corey Baird plays. I don’t know whether they’re a counter-attacking team, strictly speaking, but when I’ve seen them score in the highlights, they’re often breaking from as high as midfield – i.e., they get vertical quickly, just like Portland.

For Portland, the good signs begin with Sebastian Blanco’s return to the team; the question becomes whether they attempt to play with two forwards in Sandy, UT. I know what I recommended (and still believe), but I expect the Timbers to revert to a one-forward set this weekend. I’m more worried about what the team does in midfield – especially with the rumors I’ve heard that Sunday “Sunny” Stephen has arrived at Zen in his d-mid gig. I believe I’m several feet further down on Andy Polo than other Timbers fans, but I’m sure he’ll start somewhere near “Help us” Diego Chara “You’re Our Only Hope.” The question of with whom (who with?) could spell the difference between minor success (e.g., a draw; a high-scoring draw would make it a “major minor success”) and, gird your loins, a multiple-goal loss, aka, my worst-case, sadly-plausible scenario.

There are reasons why Portland is unlikely to win this game, but that doesn’t rule out the possibility. The coaching staff could play this any number of ways, and that’s what I’ll be watching for in this game: whether the team tries anything to improve its chances, or whether it tries at all.

OK, that’s Portland and RSL. Here’s what I’ll be watching for in the rest of Week 32’s match-ups.

Montreal Impact v. Columbus Crew SC (one of the important games, btw)

Because their last two results have been bad (and my goddamn table in the Form Guide ULTRA is behind on them), and with DC chasing them with two games in hand, a positive result for Montreal is their bare minimum (only a win will do), but I’m more interested in checking for signs of a second gear for Columbus. I don’t expect to find it. It should be advantage L’Impact, basically, and failing to hold it equals fucking up.

Atlanta United FC v. New England Revolution

Barring several miracles, the only thing at stake is Atlanta’s position in the Supporters’ Shield race. And barring distractions, Atlanta should blow the Revs out of the water and the rest of the way out of 2018.

Toronto FC v. Vancouver Whitecaps

These teams sit seven and 10 points below the playoff line, respectively. On the plus side, this has a real chance at being a good game, and a better game for Toronto. I’d expect all three points for them.

Philadelphia Union v. Minnesota United FC

Philly has been good everywhere outside Houston lately, and that’s what you’re watching for. With how bad Minnesota has been on the road, both lately and all season (0-4-2 and 1-12-2), they need all three points to keep up appearances and/or stave off rumors that the U.S. Open Cup loss shook their confidence.

FC Dallas v. Orlando City SC

Dallas has to win this. Period, and next.

Sporting Kansas City v. Los Angeles Galaxy (Important game)

Honestly, this is probably the weekend’s marquee match-up for anyone outside of Salt Lake City and Portland. I spotted a trend of shaky results for SKC against good/confident teams, and LA falls under the latter. LA is also 0-4-0 on the road in their last 10 (this includes a loss to the Colorado Rapids, btw); moreover, LA has been genuinely bad if you take away their last two wins (which, going the other way, came against Seattle and Vancouver). Edge to SKC, maybe even a big one, but this is as close to must-win for both teams as it gets in MLS.

Colorado Rapids to Los Angeles FC

With the Rapids currently six games into its second major losing streak of 2018, LAFC plays this one under a broiler’s worth of heat. The suns of three Saharas, etc. Anything less than a win for them is a sign, and a bad one.

San Jose Earthquakes v. New York Red Bulls

It was possible a few weeks ago to argue that San Jose could spoil a season or two, but that was five straights losses ago, some of them bad. And if the Red Bulls lose…they just lose the Shield. A loss, maybe even a big one, but not fatal to their chances or status. Advantage Red Bulls regardless.

DC United v. Chicago Fire

A massive game for DC – and arguably Montreal – but no one else. While Chicago has enjoyed one of its better five-game streaks of 2018, it’s not that impressive, and DC has been solid at Audi Field for as long as they’ve had it (9-2-2 for the season, and 6-1-1 over its last 10 games). Advantage DC.

Seattle Sounders v. Houston Dynamo

Just to note it, this game, plus the return leg in Houston two “Weeks” from now stand as the Sounders’ greatest challenge for the rest of 2018. If Seattle gets a result here – and they should, unless that Open Cup victory broke some kind of deal-with-the-Devil seal for the Dynamo – they’ll put some distance between them and those two back-to-back losses (v. Philly and at LA), and roll menacingly into the post-season. Anything but a win here, however, lets those two losses stick around.

All right, that’s everything. For what it’s worth, I’m going to try to get Week 32’s Form Guide ULTRA posted on Sunday night – which means I’ll omit that last result. Whenever the Form Guild ULTRA goes up, I’ll get Seattle and Houston’s info current, even if I have to update it later.