Alphonso Davies 2-1 Portland Timbers: Anatomy of a Gamble with a Big(ass) MLS Playoff Preview

thank you andres flores.

The Portland Timbers tipped their hands when it announced the starting eleven: getting rest for key players like Diegos Valeri and Chara, Sebastian Blanco, uh, Zarek Valentin, Liam Ridgewell, Larrys Mabiala…you should be sensing a pattern by now…probably even Jeremy Ebobisse; at any rate, the Timbers decided three points today mattered less than giving those players and a few more the best chance at being their best possible selves for Wednesday’s first-round playoff game at FC Dallas. (Halloween, guys, really? You’re gonna make fans choose?)

No one will know whether the gamble paid off until the final whistle blows on Halloween, but the Timbers’ understudies couldn’t hold up their end: they lost 2-1 to Alphonso Davies, who got a genuinely nice sending off from teammates and Vancouver Whitecaps fans after turning in a game-winning nearly-90 minutes at BC Place. As Davies sat on the sideline contemplating his personal reality, the TV flashed his career MLS statistics. Eight goals and 12 assists over 65 games. At first blush, you think, huh, thought it’d be higher. Bayern’s Munich’s decision to sign him only adds up when one clocks that Davies produced all of those numbers less one assist in 2018. The way he turned a seam into a tear to score his first goal explains the rest.

Portland's decision to field an army of stand-ins means there’s not a lot to say about this game beyond, guess that’s why they’re not starters. I’ll dig into the numbers down below, but I’m also going to come back later tonight to update this post with a broad-brush look at what the Timbers, and the rest of the teams who made the 2018 MLS Playoffs, look like heading into the post-season. That’ll take some research, but I should send that out into the world by the end of the night. There were some shocks across the league today, seismic, “two in the booter,” and so on.

Back to the Timbers, do I approve of the overall decision to rest, oh, everyone who has reliably proved to be someone this season? Yes, even though it meant Portland (effectively) threw away the chance to catch FC Dallas for the honor of hosting their first round playoff tie. Making that come off would have required a lot of things to go Portland’s way - e.g., Dallas losing at Colorado Rapids (check!) and Portland winning on the road by more than two goals. That’s not some pie-in-the-sky scenario - the Timbers beat RSL by three goals in Utah a few weeks ago - but that also meant giving up something as wholly tangible and valuable as well-rested starters. Add in the fact that Dallas lost its last three games of the season, and that they’d hardly been ruthless before that - 3-4-3 in the last 10 games, and those three wins came against at home against Houston and Orlando, and away to Vancouver - and the entire plan takes a step past safe toward cagey.

If this decision paid any cost at all, it comes with robbing players and team of the opportunity to roll hot into the playoffs. Think what another win on the road could have done to the players’ confidence, headed as they are into a road playoff game. As I see it, confident but fatigued still feels like more down-side than up, and, had Vancouver won anyway, this could have ended with Portland exhausted physically and shattered mentally. Yeah, I’m done second-guessing it.

As for what’s wrong with the specific group of players fielded by the Timbers today, it’s little things like Bill Tuiloma badly misplaying the ball at a catastrophic corner of the field (aka, the edge of the six). Grand mechanical failures cast a pall as well: the Timbers managed only about 10 minutes’ worth of sustained pressure for as much of the game as I watched (came in about 30) and, during that time, players opened up clear, clean paths to goal; they failed to put a shot through those openings in nearly every case, whether by created by a pass, a series of passes, or a smart dribble. In fact, no small number of those failures-to-shoot ended as a pass in search of another player with another opening. It was everything bad that happened in 2018 in one-game microcosm in some ways: an offense without clear and reliable paths to goal struggling in front of a boner-prone defense. (GOD, I love using the word “boner” for mistake!) That consolation goal felt like a hug from someone you don’t like…

Were there any bright spots? Eh, maybe if you squinted really hard. Samuel Armenteros still has great control and can turn on a half pence (smallest currency I could come up with), but he does too much of that too far from goal and he hasn’t found an opening since Labor Day (roughly). Lucas Melano had a couple good gallops, he even lead a promising breakaway toward the end of Portland’s brief “salad days moment,” but his gangly touch sometimes pushes the ball outside his control and he doesn’t seem to want the ball the same way that, say, Davies does. For all his speed and talent, Melano doesn’t seem to have the “I am the man!” add-on to his game; he passes ball and buck too readily for positions on the field that require a little greed and ambition. This one might piss people off, but Lawrence “Please Just Put ‘Larry’ on the Back of Your Jersey” Olum did his thing out there tonight. Say what you will, but the man is reliable in every sense of the word; you can plan around that shit, basically.

I’d give honorable mention to Marco Farfan, who had a couple good moments/crosses - and Powell managed a couple menacing (for this game) dribbles - but that’s the end of me picking through this dud of a performance for spare parts. Either Armenteros or Melano could win a game for Portland in the post-season, so I’d call them viable options at least; both men beat a kick in the head (honest). The rest of tonight’s starters, from Olum on down, are “break in case of emergency” kind of options, players the team will only use if forced to. With that, I’ll shove them aside like last week’s kitty litter and move on to what we might get out of the regular, old guard.

Prior today (and including it, actually), Portland’s regular starting eleven went 5-3-2 over its last 10 games. They played through some stuff too - beating Columbus and RSL at home (6 gf, 2 ga), as well as kicking the shit out of RSL on the road and drawing…hey, drawing FC Dallas 0-0 just one month ago. The team has been winning games they should and scoring at a decent clip; it’s looked better on the field lately, and on both ends of the ball, than it did during some of 2018’s dimmer moments, or I could be imagining it, a couple stars could have lined up with the match-ups, etc. I don’t know, maybe the understanding between players feels a little deeper, and that gets players’ heads in the right place. Portland certainly has a shot to win the first round and, after that, I wouldn’t put it past them to take a home-and-home series against either Seattle or SKC…even if those odds look different from one day to the next.

At any rate, buckle up for Wednesday and hope something comes beyond. Now, let’s move on to seeing how the rest of the playoff teams look after Decision Day, starting with Wednesday’s opposition, FC Dallas. For them, and the rest of the teams, I’m lifting my…slightly obsessive work-product to give some context on where they’ve been recently. It’s mostly each team’s last 10 results with notes on the quality of their opposition. To explain my key, “IN” means a team that looked good to make the playoffs, “OUT” meant the opposite, and “Marginal” meant in between. For the record, these are the play-in match-ups:

Los Angeles FC v. Real Salt Lake

New York City FC v. Philadelphia Union

DC United v. Columbus Crew SC

And now…the data.

DALLAS, 16-9-9, 57 points, 52 gf, 44 ga (10-2-5 home, 6-7-4 away)

3-4-3, 13 gf, 14 ga, 2-1-1 at home, 1-3-2 away

Record v. IN: DWDLL

Record v. OUT: DLWWL

Last game: Colorado Rapids 2-1 FC Dallas. A 17-year-old scored one of the Rapids two goals and that’s a good shorthand for the ridiculousness of the situation. Colorado played them even by all indications. Bigger deal: both goals came off clear defensive lapses. Against Colorado. (The link to the game recap is in the score; it’s up to you to click around in there.)

Last 10/Overall Status: I’d pay attention to a couple things: how bad Dallas has been on the road (even if it won’t matter Wednesday, it will if they advance) and how they’ve fared against stronger teams. After three straights losses, that little backing-up horn sound is deafening.

D	L	W	D	W	D	W	L	L	L
@ HOU	@ SJ	v HOU	v CLB	@ VAN	@ POR	v ORL	@ DC	v SKC	@ COL
1-1	3-4	4-2	0-0	2-1	0-0	2-0	0-1	0-3	1-2
O	O	O	I	I	I	O	I	I	O

To underline what should be obvious by now: the Timbers have a real chance in their play-in. Moving on to the rest - and I’ll try to organize the boxes to track with the first playoff match-up each team will have. I’ll cover Sporting Kansas City, the Seattle Sounders, the New York Red Bulls and Atlanta United FC last because they get a pass on the play-in and/or a chance to rest. Oh, and Real Salt Lake was idle on Decision Day. Something happened to them a couple weeks back…something about someone kicking their asses. Oh well, I’ll start with RSL’s opposition.

LAFC, 16-9-9, 57 points, 68 gf, 52 ga (9-1-7 home, 7-8-2 away)

5-2-3, 21 gf, 13 ga, 3-0-2 at home, 2-2-1 away

Record v. IN: DL

Record v. OUT: WWWLWW

Record v. Marginal: DD

Last game: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Los Angeles FC. It’s hard to hate on this loss, not least because it looks like LAFC took the game to SKC. I’ll make an exception on linking to a specific highlight, because Roger Espinoza, sure, great goal, but he should not be behind that midfield and it makes you wonder about them playing without d-mids. SKC away was always gonna be hell, but the issues are real.

Last 10/Overall Status: I’ve crapped on this team more than I should because, outside that freak loss to Chicago, LAFC has won all the games they should…and there’s your dirty secret. LAFC lucked out a little with how their schedule and the stars aligned: they’ve padded their record with easier games. To put that another way, they’re good at home against Colorado, New England, San Jose, Houston and Vancouver.

W	D	W	D	W	L	W	W	D	L
v COL	@ LA	@ TFC	v NE	v SJ	@ CHI	@ COL	v HOU	v VAN	@ SKC
2-0	1-1	4-2	1-1	2-0	1-3	3-0	4-2	2-2	1-2
O	I	O	M	O	O	O	O	M	I

For all that, I still don’t like RSL’s chances, but they will have the benefit of being rested and pissed off (their last two games to Portland were rough). On to the next pairing….

New York City FC 3-1 Philadelphia Union. This could have been the biggest win of the 2018 MLS Season, full stop. Had NYCFC lost this - as they very well could have - Philly would have hosted the play-in, and that would have been a very, very, very different game. Tiny Pitch Stadium is a big advantage for NYCFC. Having young defenders really kicked Philly’s ass in this one - not just on Aaron Trusty’s own-goal, but with the flapping panic on the goal that put NYCFC up 3-1 (broke my rule on linking again because that’s a portrait of potential issues).

PHILADELPHIA, 15-14-5, 50 points, 49 gf, 50 ga (9-6-2 home, 6-8-3 away)

5-3-2, 15 gf, 11 ga, 3-1-0 at home, 2-2-2 away

Record v. IN: WWDLL

Record v. OUT: WWDW

Record v. Marginal: L

Last Game: See above.

Last 10/Overall Status: Ending with both New York teams proved to be the expected Hell, and I can’t think of a more bitter pill than having get a result at a place where you just lost and on short rest. It magnifies small things like Fafa Picault missing that late penalty kick. I am bitter for Philly. After posting one of their more promising seasons, they deserved a break.

W	W	D	L	W	W	D	W	L	L
v NE	@ DC	@ ORL	v MTL	@ SEA	v SKC	@ CLB	v MIN	v RB	@ NYC
1-0	2-0	2-2	1-4	1-0	2-0	0-0	5-1	0-1	1-3
O	O	O	M	I	I	I	O	I	I

NYCFC, 16-10-8, 56 points, 58 gf, 45 ga (12-1-4 home; 4-9-4 away)

3-4-3, 14 gf, 13 ga, 2-1-2 at home, 1-3-1 away

Record v. IN: DLLW

Record v. OUT: WLWL

Record v. Marginal: DD

Last Game: See above.

Last 10/Overall Status: I have this built-in assumption/bit of bullshit, where I always assume that it’ll take a few weeks, maybe even a month, for players to reach decent form when they come back from injury. NYCFC got back Yangel Herrera and Jesus Medina, players the few people I listen to talked about obsessively in absentia, and the hurt returned. This team has been shitty, especially for any kind of contender, but they’re very good in their weird stadium. And they’ve got guys back.

D	W	L	L	D	D	W	L	L	W
v VAN	@ TFC	@ PHI	v NE	v DC	@ MTL	v CHI	@ MIN	@ DC	v PHI
2-2	3-2	0-2	0-1	1-1	1-1	2-0	1-2	1-3	3-1
I	O	I	O	M	M	O	O	I	I

In preview tweets, I made the case that NYCFC winning would make the world go crazy. Voila. When they play Philly on November 1, it’s their game to lose….and why the hell did both Western Conference clubs get stuck with the quick turn-around…wait, that’s an advantage for the first leg of the conference quarterfinals. Wow, the Lord really do taketh and giveth away…next!

DC UNITED, 14-11-9, 51 points, 60 gf, 50 ga (13-2-2 home, 1-9-7 away)

7-0-3, 21 gf, 9 ga; 7-0-1 at home, 0-0-2 away

Record v. IN: WDDWW

Record v. OUT: WWWD

Record v. Marginal: W

Last Game: Chicago Fire 0-0 DC United. They opted to not rest any key players - only Ulises Segura came out over the full 90 - and…it’s tricky. If the Fire outplayed DC, it wasn’t by much. If you watch the highlights, one thing you’ll see is has at least three players - Wayne Rooney, Luciano Acosta and Paul Arriola - who just know how to attack together.

Last 10/Overall Status: DC draws when they play on the road (and against the Red Bulls), so they’ve built their late, playoff-attaining success on home wins. As you can see above, they’re borderline automatic at home. This is a reasonably well-built team.

W	D	W	D	W	W	W	W	W	D
v ATL	@ NYC	v MIN	v RB	v MTL	v CHI	v FCD	v TFC	v NYC	@ CHI
3-1	1-1	2-1	3-3	5-0	2-0	1-0	1-0	3-1	0-0
I	I	O	I	M	O	I	O	I	O

COLUMBUS, 14-11-9, 51 points, 43 gf, 45 ga (11-2-4 home, 3-9-5 away)

3-4-3, 12 gf, 16 ga, 3-0-1 at home, 0-4-2 away

Record v. IN: LWDLD

Record v. OUT: DWLW

Record v. Marginal: L

Last Game: Columbus Crew SC 3-2 Minnesota United FC. A Francisco Calvo brace loses to a Gyasi Zardes hat-trick. To Columbus’ real credit, they ran up the numbers against the Loons, doubling them on shots, etc. Still, Minnesota, the worst road team in a year of bad road teams (yes, worse than Orlando) took them to the wall.

Last 10/Overall Status: Columbus’ last road win happened in July, the first on the first day of the season; it sure as Hell didn’t come over the last 10 games. Not a lot of good happened during that time - notably on the goal differential side. In so many words, they’re highly likely to do dick unless Zardes keeps scoring hat-tricks.

L	D	W	D	L	W	D	L	L	W
@ ATL	@ CHI	v NYC	@ FCD	@ POR	v COL	v PHI	@ MTL	@ ORL	v MIN
1-3	1-1	2-1	0-0	2-3	2-1	0-0	0-3	1-2	3-2
I	O	I	I	I	O	I	M	O	O

If Columbus was hot, I’d give them a better chance of overcoming DC’s very real home-field advantage. Back in the real world, they’ve sputtered in the attack - Zardes’ hat-trick raises them to 1.2 goals per game - and are leakier than DC in defense. DC should win this one. Now, the rest of the playoff teams, probably in the order of my affection for them.

RBNY, 22-7-5, 71 points, 62 gf, 33 ga (14-2-1 home, 8-5-4 away)

7-1-2, 15 gf, 8 ga, 5-0-0 at home, 2-1-2 away

Record v. IN: DWW

Record v. OUT: WWWWW

Record v. Marginal: LD

Last Game: New York Red Bulls 1-0 Orlando City SC. You have to check the box score to see that Orlando put up any kind of a fight. One thing that says a lot about this team: after Bradley Wright-Phillips drew a penalty kick, he let Derrick Etienne Jr. take it. Etienne Jr. missed the penalty kick, but scored the winner. I think that’s the secret to their system. If/when Portland goes out, I’m pulling for the commies.

Last 10/Overall Status: I’ll be the first to say, I’m thrilled for Chris Armas. People detected a swoon in this team after Jesse Marsch departed and, nope! The goal differential says everything. A team with, at most, two-three household names is the best team in the league. Again, that’s the best team in MLS, the New York Red Bulls. All the same, I bet the Red Bulls are borderline crazed to win the trophy they never have.

D	W	W	L	D	W	W	W	W	W
@ NYC	v DC	v HOU	@ MTL	@ DC	v TFC	v ATL	@ SJ	@ PHI	v ORL
1-1	1-0	1-0	0-3	3-3	2-0	2-0	3-1	1-0	1-0
I	O	O	M	M	O	I	O	I	O

SKC, 18-8-8, 62 points, 65 gf, 40 ga (10-2-5 home, 8-6-3 away)

6-2-2, 20 gf, 8 ga, 3-0-2 at home, 3-2-0 away

Record v. IN: LLDWW

Record v. OUT: WWW

Record v. Marginal: D

Last Game: Sporting Kansas City 2-1 Los Angeles FC. My first question, will Seth Sinovic be suspended from SKC’s first playoff game based on that bullshit red card? After that, and Espinoza’s bomb, this game played against type for SKC: they ceded more possession than they usually do, but, holy shit, were they accurate in their shooting. A great, rep-cementing win for SKC.

Last 10/Overall Status: After knocking off three rivals and managing two more over their last five, they have to be favorites for the Western title. Their gf/ga numbers are as solid as anyone’s in MLS - even over the last 10. An SKC v. Red Bulls final is the consolation I want if the Timbers don’t make it (and, quite possibly, suck the life out of MLS Cup).

W	L	W	W	L	D	D	W	W	W
v MIN	@ SEA	v ORL	@ SJ	@ PHI	v RSL	v LA	@ VAN	@ FCD	v LAF
2-0	1-3	1-0	5-1	0-2	1-1	1-1	4-1	3-0	2-1
O	I	O	O	I	I	M	M	I	I

ATLANTA, 21-7-6, 69 points, 70 gf, 44 ga, (11-2-4 home, 10-5-2 away)

7-3-0; 19 gf, 13 ga, 4-0-0 at home; 3-2-0 away

Record v. IN: WWL

Record v. OUT: WLWWWWL

Last Game: Atlanta United FC 1-4 Toronto FC. First, I’m being told TFC played Justin Morrow as a forward and I refuse to believe it. After that, no, no sports team at any level wants to choke, but Atlanta just did. I can’t say TFC has always been a threat - mostly because they haven’t - but they did have the latent talent all season. Whoever winds up playing Atlanta, maybe note those three shots into the far corner; only Giovinco’s goal went near-post.

Last 10/Overall Status: What stands out here is that Atlanta played weaker teams down the stretch and they did really, really well with it overall. They did fine against the two good teams they played - Columbus and RSL (grain of salt), but with Almiron out and an historical lack of real challengers, it’s fair enquire after Atlanta’s vulnerability.

W	W	L	W	W	W	L	W	W	L
v CLB	@ ORL	@ DC	@ COL	@ SJ	v RSL	@ RB	v NE	v CHI	@ TFC
3-1	2-1	1-3	3-0	4-3	2-0	0-2	2-1	2-1	1-4
I	O	O	O	O	I	I	O	O	O

SEATTLE, 18-11-5, 59 points, 52 gf, 37 ga (10-5-2 home; 8-6-3 away)

8-2-0, 21 gf, 11 ga, 4-1-0 at home, 4-1-0 away

Record v. IN: WWWL

Record v. OUT: WWWWW

Record v. Marginal: L

Last Game: Seattle Sounders 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes. The Sounders beat the Quakes in everything but fouls and clearances (wish I was kidding). Credit to them, they overcame some shit - e.g., San Jose scoring first, and only after a flaming fury in front of the Quakes’ goal - on top of fighting the clock the entire game. When the player you brought in to rescue your season does, what is that but good planning?

Last 10/Overall Status: Look, hate ‘em all you want - gods know I do - but there’s no denying the second half of the Sounders’ 2018. This…team…is on…FI-YER! The Sounders are 15-2-2 since the Fourth of July and Toronto must feel profoundly fucking tiny right now. Without question one of the teams to beat and deservedly so.

W	W	W	L	L	W	W	W	W	W
@ POR	v SKC	@ VAN	v PHI	@ LA	v COL	v HOU	@ ORL	@ HOU	v SJ
1-0	3-1	2-1	0-1	0-3	4-0	4-1	2-1	3-2	2-1
I	I	I	I	M	O	O	O	O	O

OK, that’s everything. As for the rest of MLS’s 2018, I’ll expand coverage where I can - I’m fairly certain I’ll take in everything from the semifinals forward - but, just for the record, this season ended very well. Enjoy!