Sunday, October 7, 2018

Real Salt Lake 1-4 Portland Timbers: Chekhov's Axe

I worry sometimes, perhaps more than I should.
The Portland Timbers rolled into Sandy, Utah last night “needing a result” against Real Salt Lake, if in some non-specific sense. To give a tautly symbolic answer for what they wound up getting, I give you Lucas Melano’s first goal of 2018, and Portland’s fourth of the game. After playing something like even for 70 minutes, RSL either fell apart or the Timbers tore them apart - and in Sandy, too, a rare feat in 2018 - on the way to a 4-1 win that arrived late, but with gusto.

It was a strange game, honestly. Portland could barely connect more than three passes in the opening 10-15 minutes - and not by anything RSL was doing, but by just giving away the ball. It took them some time to knock that shit off and, even when they managed it long enough to create Jeremy Ebobisse’s game-opening goal, the quality and composure of their work came in and out like a series of cameos. If you watched the first 70 minutes of this game with your heart beating green and gold, you never stopped checking over your shoulder for the inevitable falling axe (you know that thing, where they show you a gun at the beginning of a play?). I can speak only for myself, but I didn’t stop checking my 5 and 7 for that axe, even after Sebastian Blanco put Portland up 2-1 with some strapping thievery. That lingering paranoia would last took three, maybe four minutes more when Blanco buried the game with his second goal of the game, and the Timbers’ third.

I became a contented puddle after that unswaddled miracle. Once it became clear that the Timbers could fuck up without fucking up the game? Plop, plop, fizz, fizz, etc. After a long day of watching my country self-immolate, this was very, very welcome. It was nice to have an uncomplicated, happy emotion for a few.

Portland built its win on all those goals (if with a dash of slam-dunk (e.g., Melano’s goal)), but, around half time, I noticed something that I wasn’t seeing: looks at goal for RSL, never mind any good ones. RSL scored, obviously, and through a slightly enormous seam left open when the Timbers’ got wrapped up in defending a cross that never came, but they didn’t get too many shots in the end (nine total; numbers mean something when they match what you see). As I review the game in my mind, it feels like Portland’s midfield - ft. Mssrs. Chara and Guzman - managed the game as much as anyone else out there; I don’t recall heroics from this or that defender and Steve Clark didn’t have much to do in goal either. Portland kept RSL away from goal, basically, and for most of the game. The reality is, the Timbers managed the Hell out of this game. As much as that’s obvious in retrospect, I really never did stop checking for that axe. How many dumb/sloppy/clumsy goals have the Timbers allowed this season? No idea, and it doesn’t matter; what matters is the extent to which I’ve internalized that as “a thing,” something that just happens because bad things happen to good people. Or just Julio Cascante. When he came on, I could have sworn I saw a red dot on his back...

That’s less weird than I’m making it to be because, the odd boner aside (ah, my favorite under-used word for “mistake”), Portland has been solid in defense this season….or have they? I just ran the numbers, and they tell me it’s decidedly middling among playoff teams - which is where Portland happens to fall in the standings. (Put it this way: FC Dallas, Sporting Kansas City and the Seattle Sounders have all allowed fewer goals per game all season, and I’m guessing the standings will bear that out in the end.) Ahem. The point is, Portland has struggled more on the attacking side of the ball - I don’t think anyone would dispute that - and, in a league of thin margins, that’s the area where they needed to raise their game to get a result. And, golly, did they do that last night. This was less about running up the number of shots (just 13), than making those shots count: the Timbers put eight of those 13 shots on frame. (For those confused by those (most recent) italics, I look at shots on goal every week, and for every team in MLS, and that ratio is rare.) And one guy, the team’s little Napoleon, played a big role in that.

“For Portland, the good signs begin with Sebastian Blanco’s return to the team…”

That came from my preview for Week 32, but I won’t pretend I believed he’d rip through Sandy, Utah the way he did last night. Sebastian Blanco - and, yes, I spoke his full name again, as if in celebration - put on a three-act play last night of what a quality, “hustling” player can mean to a team. The run that created his assist to Jeremy Ebobisse’s goal started it, but it was the Indiana-Jones-style sliver that he fired through for his second goal (Portland’s third) that iced the game. If there’s a verb that never entirely escapes the orbit of sports clichés, it’s the idea of “stepping up” - something that gets pinned on the stars more than anyone else -but that’s exactly what made last night special and/or awesome: a player stepped up, planted his cleated boot into the ground and his opponents’ collective asses. Thank God for that, because did anyone else think Valeri looked a little choked last night?

If there’s a “yes, but” to this otherwise happy post, it comes with the realization that the Timbers can only be as good as Blanco, Valeri and, of course, Diego Chara make them. The same gang is here, basically, and for whatever it’s worth; they’re all another year older. On the other hand, these are our cards, live in the now, that’s not changing, and that means Portland has to ride those horses into the ground, like in one of those old cowboy movies - I think they did that in True Grit.

I haven’t read or watched any commentary on this game yet, but I won’t be surprised to see someone talk up the shift to the 4-2-3-1 as a factor. I’m gonna resist that narrative, because I think there’s a simpler one in play - specifically, that this tracks how the Timbers have found success throughout the 2018 season: so long as the defense holds up, and Valeri and/or Blanco can find room to operate, Portland will compete; and I’m going to hold on to that “or” because Portland did it with a slightly wayward Valeri last night. (Yeah, yeah, I conditioned the bugger out of that: it’s just every time I crap on one of Valeri’s performances, I come across a stat a day or two later that shows he completed some stupid percentage of passes.) This is the margin the Timbers have lived on all season, or at least that’s my argument. I mostly wonder whether the team got anything more from Andy Polo by playing him where he makes a little more sense. Can’t say I noticed it, but I was tracking a bunch of other things.

This was a test, without question, one made mysterious by a lack of direct information: Portland hadn’t played RSL in 2018, so it was impossible to know how the teams would fit together. What I did have in front of me were clear signs of RSL more or less getting its act together in recent weeks. As much as they sputtered lately, its mini-run of draws and losses came against teams (e.g., Atlanta United FC) and in circumstances (away to SKC) that excused the result (or, in the case of SKC away, inflated it). It’s possible - hell, it’s probably likely - that scouring the Timbers across a critical rasp week after week caused RSL to grow into something bigger and scarier than they deserved. It wasn’t a senseless fear, by any means, not after Portland lost to Minnesota (and played…just fucking harrowing half of soccer in it) and got man-handled by the Houston Dynamo. Because I’m me, I caveated the hell out of my prediction that RSL would win this game, and those caveats held up (and that’s why I make them). On the one hand, is RSL just the kind of team that Portland will beat more often than five times out of 10? Was this a naturally favorable match-up, in other words?

Or, to pull out another theory I’ve been tinkering with all season, did Blanco having a week off make this performance possible? If so, that could be a great thing for the return leg, where the balance of advantages tilts in Portland’s favor?

We’ll see, we’ll see. Until then, though, I’m just going to let “happy” and “surprised” keep on tangoing in my head.

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