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| Steve! Steve Clark! C'mon, buddy! |
My guess is that all the great revelations about the Portland
Timbers’ 3-0 home win over Real Salt Lake have already dropped. Given that, I’m
going short, laser-focused and bullet-y.
First, and as noted on Friday, I expected the Timbers to win
this game with the silent, ass-clenched anxiety of a parent who sets a low bar and
expects his (of course, supremely gifted) child to clear it with ease (WHY DO YOU DISAPPOINT ME?!). With that in mind, I went into the game with a general
view that, if Portland drew it, I’d worry, and I’d shit my pants a little (just a little) if they lost. Portland cleared the bar, they
are playoff-bound, and they could finish as high as…third? Maybe? Unless FC
Dallas lets the Colorado Rapids run up the score (HA!), Portland would have to
beat the Vancouver Whitecaps by enough goals to erase Dallas two-goal advantage
in goal differential. Dallas losing is Step 1 in that process - right along
with Portland beating the Vancouver Whitecaps, of which, why not? Vancouver has
been bad against good teams at home lately (guess we'll find out, right?) - and, even on the road, a draw
feels like the likeliest poor outcome for Dallas, and a draw puts them beyond Portland's reach. Again, that’s against Colorado at home. If Dallas wants to roll into
the playoffs with any kind of hope, a draw feels like the most indulgent bar
imaginable.
Back to the Timbers, and this game…
Second, watching the first half of this was enough to make
me question how this win impressed even the most anxious Timbers fan. RSL looked
more interested in a Portland win during the first 20 minutes than Portland did. They didn’t menace for the rest of the 1st half either (Kyle Beckerman's header viscerally excepted) and, again, that was
a mystery…until the second half started. Holy shit and thank God for Steve
Clark’s positioning/shot-stopping. The list of things for which I thank God involving
Clark end there.
Third, thank God Portland got something out of that opening
spell. Larrys Mabiala’s 15th minute goal made the later rope-a-dope possible. Even if it wasn't pure rope-a-dope (or rope-a-dope at all), the Timbers needed the breathing room. As for what changed, my first guess is
that Mike Petke’s halftime speech was searing and hideously personal. RSL put
the Timbers under incredible pressure from the second half whistle to, by my
loose estimation, the 65th minute. Anything could have happened over that period,
and that should be sobering, and not just in general. RSL is a worse road team
than almost all the East (Orlando City clearly excepted, a couple others are
close) and only marginally better than all the teams in the Western Conference
who stopped mattering a couple weeks ago. Some patterns matter like laws of nature, and that's one of them.
Fourth, the 2nd and 3rd goal explain why RSL is one Los Angeles
Galaxy win away from an early off-season (golf, guys, stoned golf). It also
makes a case for why Timbers fans shouldn’t get to giddy about the score-line. Portland
will not get looks on goal in the playoffs like the one RSL coughed up to Diego Chara,
at least not against teams that matter. Just…RSL, on the road, perspective.
Fifth…yeah, I’m ready to get into the weeds. Still, fifth, while
I am a full-time Jeremy Ebobisse stan - touches deft as butter, and those lightning
reads to a smart (if safe) pass - I’m happier that Portland heads into the
post-season with at least three looks at/around forward. Even if Samuel Armenteros and
Lucas Melano don’t produce (or even if Ebobisse doesn’t), each of them play
differently enough that they can force opposing defenses to scramble, even if
only for 5-10 minutes (more than enough time to score). The team ended with a better
attacking frame than they started with, as I see it. And nice assist by Melano
on Portland’s third.
Sixth, Steve Clark. Steve Clark, Steve Clark, Steve Clark.
He’s a good shot-stopper and, on the evidence of tonight, I’d credit his
positioning more than anything else. The man placed himself where he needed to
be on most of RSL’s best chances on the night to within the inch (fine, to
within inches). That’s to Clark’s credit. All the same, the man still scares the shit out of
me every time he comes off his line.
Seventh, I’ll build a quiz around this tomorrow, but I haven’t
shaken my belief that, for all the talent around him, David Guzman has the most
transformational potential of any player on the team. By around the 35th minute,
I considered the idea that Portland looked equal parts composed and in (general)
command because Guzman had held together the invisible lines of communication that
makes a team work. Five minutes later (or thereabouts), some confirmation of
that impression came through: up to the 40th minute, Guzman had managed 100%
passing accuracy. He would later commit one of Portland’s worst give-aways of
the game - a header toward his goal that could have easily lead to an equalizer
(59th minute) - and that could explain why he was one of the first players to
come off. Maybe it’s just me, but Guzman looks winded all the goddamn time out
there…swear to God, he ran after one ball at the top of the attacking third
and I thought he was going to fall down like a toddler.
Eighth, back to Melano, if he’s improved at all, he’s got
real “Secret Weapon X” potential down the stretch. I advise against holding
your breath on this, but I’m 100% pro-hope on this score.
Ninth, and last note (and, man, am I excited for that quiz;
it’s gonna take a lot to hold out for it), during the broadcast, I heard the
team mention that Giovanni Savarese resisted playing a 4-2-3-1 for a lot of the
season, and on the grounds that he wasn’t sure that Chara and Guzman could
provide enough defensive solidity in midfield. To float an opinion on that, if
Chara and Guzman don't work as the two in a 4-2-3-1, I think the Timbers can
write off its season in any case, because they won't have the attacking chops to actually win a game…
…and, yes, I’m as concerned as you are that Guzman came off
at 75, and after RSL had a period that could have brought them back into this
game, maybe even into the lead. Also, I feel terrible for RSL; ending your
season both helpless and in danger would suck. (I think most of you know this, but for those who do not, RSL are idle in the final weekend of the regular season.)
OK, that’s it for the game. I have more thoughts, but none
of them feel genuinely worth adding. Overall, though, unless SKC finds its own
personal Jesus, Portland has as good a chance to win the Western Conference as
any team. The Galaxy might get some momentum points in the end and, for all the
talent all over the other rosters, most of the teams left have one structural
issue or the other, whether it’s offense in Dallas or defense in LAFC’s patch
of LA. Seattle looks like another team with things headed in the right
direction and…so sick of that team, retire Chad Marshall, and end this national
nightmare.
All the same, Portland could make MLS Cup. If I had to put
down money right now, I’d call LAFC Portland’s likeliest opponent in the playoff
round. I think they can beat them, especially on LAFC’s recent form. We’ll see
where things go from there, I guess. All right, I’m out.
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