Level Set 13, Red Bull New York: The Difference Between Success and Happiness?

This tracked as a bad omen when MLS launched.

What follows is a brief history of Red Bull New York(/New Jersey), plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed on both sides of that and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., before First Kick 2026. You should count on things happening between here and there.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

Thumbnail History
Born as the New York/New Jersey MetroStars (and with a logo inspired by, yet embarrassing on, the bottom of a skateboard), aka, Red Bull New York, aka, New Jersey’s finest soccer team, has always been a weird one – e.g., the first time they reached MLS Cup (2008), they made it on a run through MLS’s Western Conference. Despite later, praiseworthy successes (wait for it), few things have defined the MetroStars/Red Bull franchise like the once-famous saying, “that’s so Metro.” It gets more complicated from there…

Their Red Bull/energy-drink era started, both on and off the field, with the 2006 season and, setting aside second slap from the Wooden Spoon in 2009 (the first came in 1999), the deeper pockets and connections have moved the team in a…broadly positive direction. Playing in the nation’s biggest media market obliged them to swing bigger than most MLS teams when signing players, even before the rebrand, and they have signed some infamous egos…er, players including Rafa Marquez and Lothar Mattheus, plus another gaggle of high-profile signings who, for whatever reason, missed more than they hit – e.g., Youri Djorkaeff, but old heads remember famous U.S. internationals like Tab Ramos and Claudio Reyna. Going the other way, they have launched a dozen or so famous careers for domestic stars. One could build the short list a couple ways, but I’m going with Jozy Altidore, Michael “Coach’s Son” Bradley, Tim Howard, Tim Ream (still going, like the undead), Tyler Adams, and Luis Robles. Those bright shining stars laid the foundation for the big signings to finally pay off, and that combination allowed them to put together some of the most consistent teams in league history. Circling back to “that’s so Metro,” notice I used the word “consistent,” as opposed to successful. Their best seasons started with the signing of French legend Thierry Henry and continued with Bradley Wright-Phillips – notably, one of the two players, with Robles, who was present for the three Supporters’ Shields the Red Bulls won between 2013 and 2018; it was raining Shields (Hallelujah!) over New Jersey through the mid-2010s. All it took from there was landing the supporting cast, which the Austrian/Red Bull brain-trust did with aplomb by singing players like Tim Cahill, Dax McCarty, (too briefly) Sacha Kljestan, and even Joel Lindpere, Daniel Royer, even deeper cuts like Sean Davis. Perhaps most important in the formula: calling in a succession of rugged, successful defenders like Aaron Long, Tim Parker (for a minute), and Jeff Parke. Those players turned games the Red Bulls would have otherwise tied into wins, the golden formula in MLS, insofar as the league has one. And yet, for all that consistency and success, the Red Bulls have never won a cup final. No, not even the U.S. Open Cup (runners-up twice, the last attempt in 2017). All that has made the Red Bulls the team that MLS fans know today – i.e., the one that qualifies for the playoffs every season (until, um, recently; also, give or take recent “wild card” entries), but never wins it all. They came close, to be sure, in 2024…but, again, they didn’t win it.

Portland Timbers 2-1 Red Bull New York & A Roll-Call

So, the MLS season is...a hug that lasts hours?

Officially taking the next step in the ever-evolving, attempted-shrinking approach to these posts (didn't work) – something that makes ever more sense as the Major League Soccer season shrinks to its borderline tantric close. This might read like a glorified, long-winded reddit post, but I feel like I’ve put readers through enough over the past 20-some-odd years.

By way of framing, I’d call Saturday’s 2-1 win over Red Bull New York great and on a couple levels. Allow me to explain…

The Game, Still More Briefly
With the pressure to post on the same night now alleviated, I’m coming back around to the live game experience. I caught this game from the Multnomah Athletic Club deck (weird experience, which I both do and don’t recommend; and is a mother/son LEGO build the equivalent of a purity ball, or…?), which, despite flattening the vertical space, afforded me a fantastic view of how wide the Timbers spread the field. That felt like a good choice given the Red Bulls’ style of play and, throughout the first half, that held up. Portland piled on the pressure and scored one offside goal (see the full highlights) before Kristoffer Velde engineered a real one at the 28th minute. The Timbers carried that one-goal advantage into the half and well beyond, but the Red Bulls tightened their press at the start of the second half and squeezed it until Emil Forsberg scored a follow-the-bouncing-ball equalizer that matched Matias Rojas’ opener for unlikely good fortune. Portland answered back mere minutes later with a solid team goal that makes a fella want to stand up, salute, and believe in The Product. This season’s budding star, Antony, scored it, but I was lot more excited about the break-neck poise and pace that created it. If Red Bull came close to an equalizer I don’t remember it – the final stats don’t really hint at one - but the main thing that stood out about the performance as a whole was how much Red Bull struggled to play through the Timbers all night. I appreciate that’s hardly their forte, and it did the soul good to see Portland handle a mid-table team like they knew their way around the pitch and, total bonus, neutralize the Red Bulls game-plan.

Long-form thoughts on the Timbers are below, but, before touching on that, let’s do a…

Getting Reacquainted with Red Bull New York, MLS's Kings of Falling at the First Hurdle

To some, an insurmountable obstacle.

Thumbnail History
Born as the New York/New Jersey MetroStars (and with a logo inspired by, yet embarrassing on, the bottom of a skateboard), aka, Red Bull New York, aka, New Jersey’s finest soccer team, has always been a weird one – e.g., the first time they reached MLS Cup (2008), they made it on a run through MLS’s Western Conference. Despite later, praiseworthy successes (wait for it), few things have defined the MetroStars/Red Bull franchise like their franchise-long failure to take that final, winning step; the once-famous saying, “that’s so Metro” was coined for real and persistent reasons. Their Red Bull/energy-drink era started, both on and off the field, with the 2006 season and, setting aside second slap from the Wooden Spoon in 2009 (the first came in 1999), the deeper pockets and connections have moved the team in a…broadly positive direction. Playing in the nation’s biggest media market obliged them to swing bigger than most when signing players, even before the rebrand, and they have signed some infamous egos, er, players including Rafa Marquez and Lothar Mattheus, as well as some high-profile signings that didn’t quite hit – e.g., Youri Djorkaeff and maybe famous U.S. internationals like Tab Ramos and Claudio Reyna. Going the other way, they have launched a dozen or so famous careers for domestic stars. One could build the short list a couple ways, but I’m going with Jozy Altidore, Michael “Coach’s Son” Bradley, Tim Howard, Tim Ream, Tyler Adams, and Luis Robles (here's their all-time roster, so you can name your own). Those players provided the foundation for the big signings to finally pay off and that combination allowed them to put together some of the most consistent teams in league history – and notice I used the word “consistent,” as opposed to successful. Their best seasons started with the signing of French legend Thierry Henry and continued with Bradley Wright-Phillips – notably, one of the two players, with Robles, who was present for all three of the Supporters’ Shields the Red Bulls won between 2013 and 2018 – leading the line. Yes, it was raining Shields (Hallelujah!) over New Jersey through the mid-2010s. All that star-power relied on getting the supporting cast right and their Austrian brain-trust did with with players like Tim Cahill, Dax McCarty, (too briefly) Sacha Kljestan, and even Joel Lindpere, Garrin Royer, even deeper cuts like Sean Davis. Churning out a succession of rugged, successful defenders like Aaron Long, Jeff Parke, and even Marquez bought a succession of attacking units time to win games the Red Bulls otherwise would have tied. And yet, for all that consistency and success, the Red Bulls have never won a cup final. No, not even the U.S. Open Cup (runners-up twice, the last attempt in 2017). All that has made the Red Bulls the team that MLS fans know today – i.e., the one that qualifies for the playoffs every season, give or take a couple (even if all of those recent “wild card” performances don’t count on the Joy Points Scale).

Total Joy Points: 39

FC Cincinnati 1-1 Red Bull New York: When Constellations Are Just Random, Useless Dots

Having the technology doesn't make using it right...

This won’t take long. I’m trying to get two of these things in tonight...

If I had to choose one way to explain FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 home draw to Red Bull New York, I’d go with the passing accuracy and total passes numbers, plus a pair of passing maps that look like constellations. The Red Bulls do best when they can force the opposition to play their game – particularly the part about forever pushing the ball forward, and with all the frustrated constipation of trying to make a turducken out of a set of badly-matched birds. Cincinnati had all of....I’m calling it about 25 minutes’ worth of impetus in that game in total; the rest of it was just 10 mammals reacting to stimuli. Solid game by Roman Celentano, by the way....

To lay my cards on the table, I’m a little pissy about this draw and mostly because I’m fairly convinced it didn’t have to be this way.

J. R. R. Tolkein getting the penalty call in the 28th-minute didn’t hurt, obviously, and, I don’t care how lonely this hill is, I would never have called that as a penalty. Raymon Gaddis clearly played the ball, one that hung in the air like a slow-pitched softball and, if he kicked J. R. R. in mid-flight, I mean, haven’t we all wanted to do that, if only for the terrible dialogue and dwarf songs alone?

Call that a long, digressive way of saying, I wouldn’t have called that penalty, but that doesn’t erase the fact it 1) wasn’t crazy and 2) was called, and that’s how the Red Bulls turned a whole lot of mostly nothing into one more point on the road. Celentano made all of two saves tonight (and came close on the PK), one of them that asked no more of him than catching a placement shot at head level from range, and that gives a good measure of New Jersey’s “dominance” tonight, and the limits of their present approach to the game. They succeeded in stifling everything Cincy thought to do, as soon as they tried it – boiling over Luciano Acosta’s frustration in the process – but the return they got was almost entirely negative. RBNY only managed one good shot on goal that stuck with me (Morgan, from range, circa the 63rd), but the rest topped out at their trademark frenetic aimlessness. They’re the soccer equivalent of someone who can win the fight for the knife in a street fight, but don’t know what to do with it from there.

Now, to pick up the mail from the complaints department...

Red Bull New York 1-1 Portland Timbers: Through Wind, Through Rain, Through Bull, etc.

It is called showing up to work. Dammit.

To offer a metaphor, the Portland Timbers road game at Harrison, New Jersey, compared to the experience of walking to the mailbox in a windstorm. It feels impossible when you first step into it, but, foot by foot, you figure out how to stand up, then you figure out how to walk, and, finally, you get the mail. Mission accomplished.

Sure, the wind still knocked you into a face-plant on the way back, but also, you got mail!

To set aside the metaphor, the Timbers poached a point from Red Bull New York, and stole two of theirs in the deal. No one wanted the 1-1 draw it ended on, but, returning to the metaphor, Portland found their feet tonight, and it was good. With few exceptions, either for players or in moments, they looked neither flustered nor too casual, and nearly every player in green grew into the game. Even if the result itself wasn’t good, it was good for morale. Die with yer boots on, if you’re gonna go down, take a good swing before the stars come out, etc.

To expand the commentary(/switch metaphors), playing Red Bull amounts to an effort in treading water - i.e., keeping your head up long enough find a safe harbor where you can get it together and get out of the situation. And, after a shaky start - and Pablo Bonilla and Marvin Loria stood out in that regard - the Timbers did that. In a nice bit of chemistry meeting in the middle, they collectively picked up the pace on the passes and provided options to make them happen. The way Red Bull plays makes it hard to get far out ahead - and, if you love the Timbers don’t look at the xG (because it wasn’t far wrong) - but Portland chose a moment to try to get something out of the game and pulled it off. I’ll have more on that later - due to some specifics I want to pull out - but, after three games after fairly uncompetitive soccer, just the idea of rising to an opponent plays like a choir of angels.

The Red Bulls got back into the game, of course. It took them about five minutes after the Timbers’ go-ahead goal (wait for it) for them to scratch back into the game, and only 10 minutes (or so) after that for Aaron Long to put back a second ball off a corner kick, but, a (heavy) flurry on the fringes of Portland’s back-line aside, the home team didn’t create a lot of opportunities. Moreover, when a great opening bounced their way, one that saw Omar Fernandez wide open and way up the field on Justin Rasmussen’s side and with young Justin on walkabout, the further he pushed up-field, the lonelier he got. That happened around the 82nd minute; the legs just weren’t there, something that has long struck me as the risk side of RBNY risk/reward system. I wouldn’t say they had an actual bad night; it’s more that when you shoot a little wild, as they do, you don’t hit a lot.

Portland Timbers 0-2 New York Red Bulls: Short (Pfft!), Sharp and Disappointed

Happy Halloween, motherfuckers!! (aka, how crosses work).

I want to start with one thought, something I feel escapes fans from time to time.

If your accountant fucks up your taxes, you complain, yes? If the kitchen sent you something you didn’t order and it’s cold, you send that wrecked fucking garbage back to the kitchen and demand an apology, right?

When a ref calls a bad game, you lose your whole goddamn mind and tell him you wish he would die in a fiery crash tomorrow with his whole worthless, myopic family, don’t you?

Professional athletes are not sacred spirit creatures. They are people who are hired to do a job. When they fail at the job, there is nothing wrong with pointing it out.

When you insult them personally, or, for example, wish them bodily harm (as in the refereeing example above; i.e., neither say nor think such things), yes, you have crossed the line and, as MLS says, don’t cross the line.

The point is, there’s nothing wrong with saying this player or that hasn’t done well for some time or, to borrow a point from someone else (@isaacfharris), that a coach isn’t making the proper adjustments. Now, to tonight’s game. Bullet-point style.

MLS Form Guide ULTRA, Week 13: A Whole Bunch of Data & A Stupid Epiphany

There are dozens of more respectful images, but I liked the roman candle.

With a narrative summary of MLS Week 13 posted over on Orange & Blue Press, I can finally post the source material. [Ed. – If I edit these posts even once, the formatting falls apart; these things can actually look worse, swear to god.] While I at least touched on every game in that narrative summary, a handful of useful details/budding narratives fell to the cutting room floor.

Before that, and to wrap up the argument I started against the “West > East” line in the narrative post, the reason I resisted that is down below in how I organized…fine, ranked the teams. If you use “W” for the Western Conference, and “E” for the Eastern, my top eight ranking is: WEEWWEWW. Yes, that is five teams out of eight in favor of the Western Conference, but I also have Eastern Conference teams in the next three spots (e.g., 9-11). I don’t like the verb “rank” on these things, because I think the sports rankings only achieve clarity at the poles – e.g., it can tell you which teams are good, and which teams suck openly and weekly, but the deeper reality is that everything just sort of runs together in the middle – especially in a (relatively) tight-wad league like MLS. In so many words, the clearest judgments are at the beginning and the end - and that's how I push past the "West > East" narrative: the bad teams in both conferences are just bad. (yes, I saw that Colorado beat Columbus...but was that really so weird? See below.) and you can ignore everything in the middle. Shit. Why did explaining that make me feel like I’m the last guy to experience this “epiphany”? Now, some details…

I won’t gloat for long about the Timbers’ win over Phillly (that’s been covered), but the moved up in the crapshoot down below because they were a team on a solid run beating a strong team at home; that’s the smell of upward momentum. To continue with that theme:

- The Red Bulls went higher on ruthlessness alone, but, goddammit, are they borderline unwatchable. Without the(ir comparative) elegance from seasons past, the gegenpresse becomes hacking, send-in-the-goons stuff. One more page falls from that little red book I keep about the league…

- If their defense starts leaking, Seattle doesn’t have the offense to cover for that right now. Just a point of interstfaction.

- I have both Dallas and Houston over Atlanta down below and, that’s where the idea about closeness to the center comes from. Anyone who remembers Atlanta just rolling over teams in 2018, can’t escape the comparison. They still look a little uncertain out there - even on the defensive side (their late strength) against RSL. I can’t defend where I put Dallas because they have flat-out died out there (two points from 15 - yeah!). Also, the games can't help but get easier, so they've looked good enough for me to expect them to pick up points. With Houston, they need to visibly fuck-up before I write them off.

- LAFC are very good, but they’re mowing through a soft-ish stretch right now, so that’s to be expected. Or, the short version, kicking Montreal’s ass in any venue just isn’t that impressive.

Uh, what else? I think the Chicago Fire are playing closer to their honest level than any team in MLS. A Jimmy-Carter-esque malaise has seized DC, and I still don’t buy Minnesota, even while completely accepting that a lot of their key players are doing well (but Darwin Quintero has to make better decisions). All right, that’s that. Time for the Info-Boxes. I think they’re self-explanatory, and also a loose form of obsessive (“Weeks Since I’ve Posted This Feature Without a Factual Error: 0”). Forward any questions/arguments over twitter (@JeffBull5), I guess. I just wanna sleep...

LOS ANGELES FC, 10-1-4, 34 points, 36 gf, 11 ga, (7-0-1 home, 3-1-3 away)

Last 10 games: WWLWDDWWDW (6-1-3)

Last 10 at home: WWDWW

Last 10 away: WLDWD

W	W	L	W	D	D	W	W	D	W
a DC	v CIN	a VAN	v SEA	a SEA	v CHI	a CLB	v FCD	a FCD	v MTL
4-0	2-0	0-1	4-1	1-1	0-0	3-0	2-0	1-1	4-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Expectation met, boring as you like. If someone asked me to explain LAFC’s success with one highlight, I’d show them this one.

Next Games: @ Portland (6/1) If they beat Portland like the beat Montreal, it’s time for the rest of MLS to dig out that pair of spare pants. Happily, Portland has made that more of an open question than it was 5-6 weeks ago.

PHILADELPHIA UNION, 7-4-3, 24 points, 24 gf, 15 ga, (5-2-1 home, 2-2-2 away)

Last 10 games: WWLWDWWWDL (6-2-2)

Last 10 at home: WWWWDL

Last 10 away: WLDW

W	W	L	W	D	W	W	W	D	L
a CIN	v FCD	a LAG	v MTL	a VAN	v CIN	v NE	a TFC	v SEA	v POR
2-0	2-1	0-2	3-0	1-1	3-0	6-1	2-1	0-0	1-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. That’s two punches on the nose against two West Coast teams and with both games in Philly. Noted. (And the better West Coast team actually won their game. Also noted.). As noted in my extended write-up, the Union still looked very good – even losing.

Next Games. v Colorado (5/29), @ Minnesota (6/2), v RBNY (6/8). “I expect them 8-10 points higher by then,” was last week’s take away on Philly’s schedule. The window for that just shrank. And at least one of those games looks harder after today (away to Minnesota).

NEW YORK CITY FC, 4-1-7, 19 points, 16 gf, 13 ga, (1-0-4 home, 3-1-3 away)

Last 10 games: DLDDWWDWWD (4-1-6)

Last 10 at home: DDWD

Last 10 away: LDWWDD

D	L	D	D	W	W	D	W	W	D
v LAF	a TFC	v MTL	a MIN	a DC	v CHI	v ORL	a MTL	a LAG	a CHI
2-2	0-4	0-0	3-3	2-0	1-0	1-1	2-0	2-0	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Another game, another draw, but also a remarkable unbeaten streak. They looked a little sluggish out there, honestly, but they’ve also taken seven points of nine, all of them on the road.

Next Game: @ Columbus (6/1) v Cincinnati (6/6). To paraphrase the last post, “six points seems realistic (Thanks, Ohio!).” They feel like a good bet to get 10 of 12 from a run of four road games, and FC Cincy doesn’t look like they could stop a gaggle of toddlers right now.

SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 7-2-5, 26 points, 24 gf, 17 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-2-3 away)

Last 10 games: WWLDDDWWDL (4-2-4)

Last 10 at home: WWDDWW

Last 10 away: LDDL

W	W	L	D	D	D	W	W	D	L
v RSL	v TFC	a LAF	v SJ	v LAF	a MIN	v HOU	v ORL	a PHI	a SKC
1-0	3-2	1-4	2-2	1-1	1-1	1-0	2-1	0-0	2-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Details aside, this was about the result you’d expect from these two teams in a context-free game. In context, though, the Sounders just aren’t posting big results – and it goes beyond things breaking wrong for them (e.g., they missed a sure goal, but also got away with a hand-ball, so…karma’s still balanced).

Next Games. v FCD (6/1), @ Montreal (6/5). “…anything less than four points between here and the Gold Cup should be cause for concern at this point.” I think that still holds – especially since their next two games are two they should win. But that’s what you watch for.

HOUSTON DYNAMO, 7-3-2, 23 points, 20 gf, 13 ga, (6-0-2 home, 1-3-0 away)

Last 10 games: WWWLWWLDWL (6-3-1)

Last 10 at home: WWWWDW

Last 10 away: WLLL

W	W	W	L	W	W	L	D	W	L
v VAN	a COL	v SJ	a LAG	v CLB	v HOU	a SEA	v POR	v DC	a MIN
3-2	4-1	2-1	1-2	2-0	2-1	0-1	1-1	2-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Their road jinx returns(?), but I wouldn’t read too much into this loss. They kept Minnesota largely to half-chances. A little less wayward shooting, and this game was theirs for the taking.

Next. v SKC (6/1). It just got a little tougher for them to go into the Gold Cup Break on a high; still, gives the Dynamo another shot at proving they’re death at home.

NEW YORK RED BULLS, 6-5-3, 21 points, 21 gf, 16 ga, (4-3-1 home, 2-2-2 away)

Last Ten: LDLWWLWWDW (5-3-2)

Last 10 at home: LWWLWD

Last 10 away: DLWW

L	D	L	W	W	L	W	W	D	W
v MIN	a SKC	a NE	v CIN	v LA	v MTL	a FCD	v ATL	v VAN	a CIN
1-2	2-2	0-1	1-0	3-2	1-2	3-1	1-0	2-2	2-0
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. As pointed out in my extended notes, the Red Bulls didn’t look good, they barely generated offense, the press didn’t do shit, etc. They still won, and that’s two wins on the road now. The long-term trend has all of one hiccup in it (the home loss to Montreal…WTF?)

Next Games. v RSL (6/1), @ Philly (6/8). “Six points from this stretch of games, amounts to announcing its revival.” They picked up three points already, and with how RSL plays on the road…and against a possession side like Philly. This could be a real pivot for them.

PORTLAND TIMBERS, 4-6-2, 14 points, 17 gf, 23 ga, (0-0-0 home, 4-6-2 away)

Last 10 games: LLLLWWWLDW (4-5-1)

Last 10 at home: N/A

Last 10 away: LLLLWWWLDW

L	L	L	L	W	W	W	L	D	W
a CIN	a LAG	a SJ	a FCD	a CLB	a TFC	a RSL	a VAN	a HOU	3-1
0-3	1-2	0-3	2-1	3-1	2-1	2-1	0-1	1-1	a PHI
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. That’s a lot of Ws up there and, as argued in my extended notes on their win over Philly, “Portland, 1) still has viable (healthy) talent, and 2) has its shit figured out.”

Next Games. v LAFC (6/1). It doesn’t really matter if Portland wins this – they’ve got lots of season left to tear up – but, jesus fucking Christ, do I want them to win this game.

FC DALLAS, 5-6-3, 18 points, 18 gf, 19 ga, (3-1-3 home, 2-5-0 away)

Last 10 games: WLWWDLLLDL (3-5-2)

Last 10 at home: WDLD

Last 10 away: WLWLLL

W	L	W	W	D	L	L	L	D	L
a RSL	a PHI	v POR	a ATL	v SJ	a HOU	v RB	a LAF	v LAF	a VAN
4-2	1-2	2-1	2-1	0-0	1-2	1-3	0-2	1-1	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “Dallas impressed me a little last weekend.” That was last weekend, and I almost wrote them off – and, with just one point from the last 15 on offer, that stands up. True, Dallas dying on the road, but they’ve played in the toughest places over that stretch (and Vancouver), their last 5 games were hell, and they put up big numbers for the second week running. They had every chance to draw this match to boot.

Next Games. v Seattle (6/1), @ San Jose (6/8). None of the above matters if they can’t convert big numbers into wins. All the tough games now means they should hit a soft patch later.

ATLANTA UNITED FC, 6-5-2, 20 points, 14 gf, 11 ga, (3-1-2 home, 3-4-0 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWWWWWLL (6-4-0)

Last 10 at home: LWWW

Last 10 away: LWWWLL

L	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	L	L
a CLB	a NE	v FCD	v COL	a SKC	v TFC	v ORL	a VAN	a NYR	a RSL
0-2	2-0	1-2	1-0	3-0	2-0	1-0	1-0	0-1	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. While I’d be damned anxious about how many shots they gave away from range (seriously, ask Brad Guzan how he felt about this), they made RSL take every last minute to beat them. Also, that’s a curious little streak they’ve started…

Next Game. v Minnesota (5/29), v Chicago (6/1). Those two games aren’t must-wins, but they sure as hell are “should-wins.” Anything else is just giving away points.

DC UNITED, 7-4-4, 25 points, 19 gf, 14 ga, (4-2-1 home, 3-2-3 away)

Last 10 games: DWLWLWWDLD (4-3-3)

Last 10 at home: DLWW

Last 10 away: WWLDLD

D	W	L	W	L	W	W	D	L	D
v MTL	a COL	v NYC	a CLB	a MIN	v CLB	v SKC	a TFC	a HOU	a NE
0-0	3-2	0-2	1-0	0-1	3-1	1-0	0-0	1-2	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A tricky game to read, honestly. The condensed game didn’t show much from them beyond Wayne Rooney getting on both sides of an ass-kicking. They had a man advantage for most of the second half, and still needed a gift of a penalty call to rescue a point. The recent road form is a cause for concern – especially given the opposition.

Next Game: v Chicago (5/29), v San Jose (6/1). They need wins in both, but less than four points is what I’m really watching for.

CHICAGO FIRE, 4-5-5, 16 points, 21 gf, 18 ga, (4-1-3 home, 0-4-2 away)

Last 10 games: DDWLLDWWLD (3-3-4)

Last 10 at home: DWWWD

Last 10 away: DLLDL

D	D	W	L	L	D	W	W	L	D
a TFC	v VAN	v COL	a NYC	a MTL	a LAF	v NE	v MIN	a SJ	v NYC
2-2	1-1	4-1	0-1	0-1	1-1	5-0	2-0	1-4	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. They had a real opportunity to win this game and that would’ve been something. Take out the fluke against San Jose, and I’d argue that their last five games show the Fire’s level (which is decent).

Next Games. @ DC, 5/29, @ Atlanta, 6/1. “…if they give away the next nine points – sure feels possible - can they recover?” A win would have been nice, sure, but they didn’t give up the next nine points. The question is what comes next – especially with their road record.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC, 6-4-3, 21 points, 21 gf, 18 ga, (3-0-3 home, 3-4-0 away)

Last 10 games: LWDLDWDLWW (4-3-3)

Last 10 at home: DDWDWW

Last 10 away: LWLL

L	W	D	L	D	W	D	L	W	W
a NE	a NYR	v NYC	a TFC	v LAG	v DC	v SEA	a CHI	v CLB	v HOU
1-2	2-1	3-3	3-4	0-0	1-0	1-1	0-2	1-0	1-0
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “A team simply can’t leave that much fetid air between wins and expect to get anywhere.” That was last week and, so that’s one issue fixed gap closed. On the other hand, they won it on a (damned) lucky goal, and gave Houston too much to work with.

Next Games. @ Atlanta (5/29), v Philly (6/2), @ Colorado (6/8). That’s still a nightmare schedule, and they’ll (realistically) want 4 or more points out of it.

REAL SALT LAKE, 6-6-1, 19 points, 20 gf, 21 ga, (4-2-0 home, 2-4-1 away)

Last 10 games: LLLWWLLWWW (5-5-0)

Last 10 at home: LWLWW

Last 10 away: LLWLW

L	L	L	W	W	L	L	W	W	W
a LAF	v FCD	a SEA	v ORL	a CIN	a LAG	v POR	a COL	v TFC	v ATL
1-2	2-4	0-1	2-1	3-0	1-2	1-2	3-2	3-0	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. RSL looked perfectly comfortable going toe-to-toe with the lately-revived reigning champs. They firmed up their case to be taken seriously over the last three games - and showing you can win without a “real” forward – bombs away (i.e., Savarino, Saucedo, and Rusnak).

Next Games: @ Montreal (5/29), @ RBNY (6/1). God knows what’ll happen in their next game (against Montreal, all cards are wild), but getting anything out of Red Bull Arena would be something.

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES, 5-6-2, 17 points, 20 gf, 24 ga, (4-3-0 home, 1-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWDDWLWW (5-3-2)

Last 10 at home: LWWWW

Last 10 away: LDDLW

L	W	L	W	D	D	W	L	W	W
v LAF	v POR	a HOU	v SKC	a SEA	a FCD	v CIN	a NE	v CHI	a TFC
0-5	3-0	1-2	4-1	2-2	0-0	1-0	1-3	4-1	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. They won this one on the back of having one good player (Cristian Espinoza) being able to find another one (Chris Wondolowski). Two times. Looked like an even game in most regards, but finishing and desire, and the ‘Quakes held the edge in both cases.

Next Games: @ DC (6/1), v Dallas (6/8). At the same time, “anything over six points should command people’s attention” was last week’s note. They’re halfway there by beating Chicago.

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS, 4-6-5, 17 points, 16 gf, 19 ga, (3-3-2 home, 1-3-3 away)

Last 10 games: DWLDWWLDDW (4-2-4)

Last 10 at home: WDWLW

Last 10 away: DLWDD

D	W	L	D	W	W	L	D	D	W
a CHI	v LAF	a ORL	v PHI	a COL	v POR	v ATL	a SKC	a NYR	v FCD
1-1	1-0	0-1	1-1	3-2	1-0	0-1	1-1	2-2	2-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. “Overall, they’re rounding into a tough game, minimum.” I love when my theories hold up…but, even if the ‘Caps should have made it 3-1, they got out-played in the game and it took a couple lucky bounces and a great goal to get all three. The fate of Ali Adnan’s groin could be a big deal (this is just one thing he can do).

Next Games. v TFC (5/31). “Dallas should trouble them.” And they did, just not enough. Playing a Toronto team in free-fall in Vancouver could see them over the playoff line at the break.

LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 8-5-1, 25 points, 19 gf, 17 ga, (6-2-0 home, 2-3-1 away)

Last 10 games: WWWDWLLLLW (5-4-1)

Last 10 at home: WWWLL

Last 10 away: WDLLW

W	W	W	D	W	L	L	L	L	W
a VAN	v PHI	v HOU	a MIN	v RSL	a RB	a CLB	v NYC	v COL	a ORL
2-0	2-0	2-1	0-0	2-1	2-3	1-3	0-2	0-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Jonathan dos Santos got one, and got away with win (HT; Nani). A win counts more or less according to circumstances. A necessary win, but it doesn’t re-write the Galaxy’s fate.

Next Games. @ SKC (5/29), v NE Revs (6/2). “A good team eats that run alive, that’s all I’m saying. I’d be stunned if they get less than three points.” Low bar, cleared. I’ll give ‘em credit if they get three more points.

MONTREAL IMPACT, 6-6-3, 21 points, 17 gf, 23 ga, (2-1-1 home, 4-5-2 away)

Last 10 games: DWLWWLWLDL (4-4-2)

Last 10 at home: WWLD

Last 10 away: DLWWL

D	W	L	W	W	L	W	L	D	L
a DC	v CLB	a PHI	a NE	v CHI	v NYC	a RB	a CIN	v NE	a LAF
0-0	1-0	0-3	3-0	1-0	2-0	2-1	1-2	0-0	2-4
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Were they signs of life? Nah, they got dunked on, then pulled apart; LAFC set up a shooting gallery. They got four points out of the last 15 available, and they even did that weird.

Next Games. v RSL (5/29), v Orlando (6/1), v Seattle (6/5). That’s three home games against three teams with different issues/weaknesses, plus Ignacio Piatti back in the fold. This is where they show who they are this season.

TORONTO FC, 5-6-2, 17 points, 23 gf, 22 ga, (3-3-2 home, 2-3-0 away)

Last 10 games: DLWLWLLDLL (2-6-2)

Last 10 at home: DWLLDL

Last 10 away: LWLL

D	L	W	L	W	L	L	D	L	L
v CHI	a SEA	v MIN	v POR	a ORL	a ATL	v PHI	v DC	a RSL	v SJ
2-2	2-3	4-3	1-2	2-0	0-2	1-2	0-0	0-3	1-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Their last four results at home should be enough to underscore just how reasonable the doubts surrounding TFC have become.; the record over their last 10 games is straight-up sobering. Missing Bradley and Pozuelo hurts, but the goals they allowed…way too easy. Watch Drew Moor. He knows.

Next Games. @ Vancouver (5/31), v SKC (6/7). “Also, worried about a disaster ahead of the break.” That’s from two weeks prior now, and I still stand by it.

SPORTING KC, 3-4-5, 14 points, 23 gf, 22 ga, (3-1-3 home, 0-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: DWDDLDLLDW (2-3-5)

Last 10 at home: WDDLDW

Last 10 away: DDLL

D	W	D	D	L	D	L	L	D	W
a COL	v MTL	a CIN	v NYR	a SJ	v NE	v ATL	a DC	v VAN	v SEA
1-1	7-1	1-1	2-2	1-4	4-4	0-3	0-1	1-1	3-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A great win, but…does it really matter yet? Johnny Russell will not do this every week, bluntly, and look at the gap between their wins – and how that’s with four games at home. And Matt Besler limped off again to boot…

Next Games. v LA Galaxy (5/29), @ Houston (6/1), @ TFC (6/7). “The crazy thing is, all they have to do is wake up.” They’ve hit the snooze button with that result. If they get six points between now and the Gold Cup break, they return to the watch list.

COLUMBUS CREW SC, 5-9-1, 16 points, 14 gf, 22 ga, (4-3-1 home, 1-6-0 away)

Last 10 games: WLLLLLWLLL (2-8-0)

Last 10 at home: WLLWL

Last 10 away: LLLLL

W	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L	L
v NE	a MTL	v POR	v DC	a HOU	a DC	v LAG	v LAF	a MIN	a COL
1-0	0-1	1-3	0-1	0-2	1-3	3-1	0-3	0-1	2-3
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. Caleb Porter’s deer-in-the-headlights post-game comments say something global, but, despite playing an even game, lllooooonnnngggggg runs of failure are built on flukes and fuck-ups, and Columbus simply cannot quit them.

Next Games. v NYCFC (6/1). “…the Crew will very likely hit the break on a major down.” Another prediction panned out. This team desperately needs to clear its collective head.

ORLANDO CITY SC, 4-7-3, 15 points, 19 gf, 21 ga, (3-4-1 home, 1-3-2 away)

Last 10 games: LWLWDLLLWL (3-6-1)

Last 10 at home: LWWLWL

Last 10 away: LDLL

L	W	L	W	D	L	L	L	W	L
v DC	v COL	a RSL	v VAN	a NYC	v TFC	a ATL	a SEA	v CIN	v LAG
1-2	4-3	1-2	1-0	1-1	2-0	0-1	1-2	5-1	0-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. When your DP chokes on a penalty kick, right? The Lions racked up chances and drove them game, but I offer one grasping moment as a symbol for this loss (ask yourself; why did that look so half-assed?), and Orlando’s season as a whole.

Next Games. @ Montreal (6/1). This loss also amounted to fucking up their best shot at redemption. Good thing Montreal plays with loose dice.

COLORADO RAPIDS, 2-9-2, 8 points, 20 gf, 32 ga, (1-4-2 home, 1-5-0 away)

Last 10 games: LLLLLLLLLWW (2-8-0)

Last 10 at home: LLLLW

Last 10 away: LLLLW

L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	W	W
a FCD	v HOU	a ORL	v DC	a CHI	a ATL	v VAN	v RSL	a LAG	v CLB
1-2	1-4	3-4	2-3	4-1	0-1	2-3	2-3	1-0	3-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. A glorious win – and Nicolas Mezquida deserves celebration/freak-out of Week 13 – but it’s vital to acknowledge just how tenuous this was; Columbus got more looks than the highlights suggested. For Colorado, though, Jonathan Lewis looks like an addition to their modest collection of good pieces.

Next Game: @ Philly (5/29), v Cincinnati (6/1), v Minnesota (6/8). “The Columbus game is one to watch.” And now we have part of the answer. “If they’ve really found their feet, the Rapids will get six points out of those home games.” That leaves watching Cincy and the Loons.

NEW ENGLAND REVS, 3-8-4, 13 points, 15 gf, 32 ga, (3-4-1 home, 0-4-3 away)

Last 10 games: LLWLDLLWDD (2-5-3)

Last 10 at home: LWLWD

Last 10 away: LDLLD

L	L	W	L	D	L	L	W	D	D
a CLB	v ATL	v NYR	v MTL	a SKC	a PHI	a CHI	v SJ	a MTL	v DC
0-1	0-2	1-0	0-3-	4-4	1-6	0-5	3-1	0-0	1-1
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. You have to squint to see it, but the Revs started in a better direction after getting rid of Brad Friedel. They scored after going down a player – they lost their starting ‘keeper and his replacement had to stand immediately tall – and came close to winning. New kids (e.g., Tajon Buchanan and Brandon Bye) showing well, and Cristian Penilla is waking up.

Next Games. @ LA Galaxy (6/2). As much as the Revs could use a win, file that game under doable, but also unlikely.

FC CINCINNATI, 3-9-2, 11 points, 11 gf, 25 ga, (2-3-1 home, 1-6-1 away)

Last 10 games: LDLLLLLWLL (1-8-1)

Last 10 at home: LDLWL

Last 10 away: LLLLL

L	D	L	L	L	L	L	W	L	L
v PHI	v SKC	a LAF	v RSL	a NYR	a PHI	a SJ	v MTL	a ORL	v NYR
0-2	1-1	0-2	0-3	0-1	0-2	0-1	2-1	1-5	0-2
N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

Notes. It’s as bad as it looks and, as argued in my extended notes, I don’t see it going away soon. They have an optimal line-up, and I think that’s their ceiling. And it’s damned low.

Next Games. @ Colorado (6/1), @ NYCFC (6/6). With the road as cruel as it has been, I give Cincy no chance in that second game. Which means they need to get something out of that first one.

Right. That’s my crystal ball spit-shined as clean as I can get it…yeah, I’ve always been a fraud…