Monday, April 15, 2019

MLS Form Guide ULTRA, Week Nearly-7: Paring the Data Closer to the Bone

As easy as judging quality cinema.
I’m lifting too much shit in two different spaces, if mostly on those weekends when I do other things with my time like a normal person. (While I’m here, if someone calls you a “normie,” take it for the compliment it is.)

Welcome to the bones of the MLS Week Nearly-7 recap, the skeleton, the abacus, the first draft of the story of what just happened last weekend. Because I’m going to post my best shot at a final draft over on Orange & Blue Press, I’m going to keep the source material fairly minimalist. As usual, all the results from the 2019 season are listed below and it’s all laid out to where you can see which teams did what and where, a history of the season in numbers, plus some raw notes on what I think it all means and, damn whatever problem I have, links to a bunch of supporting material...because I think you think I'm a liar, all the time.

Once again, I listed teams according to my rough understanding of their comparative quality. I wouldn’t read much into specific placement of each team, at least not beyond the premise that the teams closer to the top will most likely beat the teams closer to the bottom. All the same, I’ll close out this preamble with some short declaratives about where I think things down below might be off. In the order they’re listed…

- I haven’t seen Toronto FC look bad or helpless yet. That counts.

- I don’t trust where the Los Angeles Galaxy and the Houston Dynamo are right now.

- I don’t know when Sporting Kansas City will get going. Waste enough time, that’s all I’m sayin’.

- I think FC Cincinnati and FC Dallas are the same kind of mid-table team, and I hope I’m wrong for both their sakes’.

- Orlando City SC is the scrappiest li’l team in MLS. I pull for them every week. And I try to announce my biases.

- The Philadelphia Union is the most mysterious team in Major League Soccer.

- The Colorado Rapids and New England Revolution might be the low-key worst teams in MLS.

OK, that’s everything. On with the Info-Boxes (e.g., where I keep the results).


LOS ANGELES FC, 6-0-1, 19 points, 21 gf, 5 ga, (4-0-0 home, 2-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
v SKC
v POR
@ NYC
v RSL
@ SJ
@ DC
v CIN
2-1
4-1
2-2
2-1
5-0
4-0
2-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Even if I down-played it in my extended notes on this game, LAFC never looked like losing this game (drawing it tho…).
Next Game: @ Vancouver Whitecaps April 17, v. Seattle Sounders April 21, and anything over four points amounts to steady as she goes for this team.

SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 5-0-1, 16 points, 14 gf, 5 ga, (4-0-0 home, 1-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
W
D
W
W
v CIN
v COL
@ CHI
@ VAN
v RSL
v TFC
4-1
2-0
4-2
0-0
1-0
3-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Always delighted to see Will Bruin score (an underdog in the old mold, and he scored twice), but Cristian Roldan’sgoal felt more menacing somehow. Wherever it comes from, this team registers as “good/avoid” till further notice.
Next Game: @ Los Angeles FC, which has a pretty solid Clash of the Titans vibe.

TORONTO FC, 3-1-1, 10 points, 14 gf, 8 ga, (2-0-1 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
W
D
L
@ PHI
v NE
v NYC
v CHI
@ SEA
3-1
3-2
4-0
2-2
2-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: It was always a stretch, winning this game, but the myth of the Pozuelo-to-Altidore connection keeps growing. Just to note it, Altidore shows what an MLS-elite forward looks like on that second goal.
Next Game: v. Minnesota United FC, which feels like a game a serious team wins.

LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 5-1-0, 15 points, 11 gf, 6 ga, (4-0-0 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
L
W
W
W
W
v CHI
@ FCD
v MIN
v POR
@ VAN
v PHI
2-1
0-2
3-2
2-1
2-0
2-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: One could make a fairly good case that the Swedish Freak won this game for LA. It’s probably not quite, “so long as he remains healthy” – they have some talent elsewhere – but there’s no question he makes it easier.
Next Game: v Houston Dynamo, a game I’d bet on LA to win. Good as Houston looks, they haven’t played a decent team on the road and they have a history of road allergies.

SPORTING KC, 2-1-3, 9 points, 13 gf, 6 ga, (2-0-1 home, 0-1-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
W
D
W
D
D
@ LAF
v PHI
@ COL
v MTL
@ CIN
v NYR
1-2
2-0
1-1
7-1
1-1
2-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: After putting up more shots and generally driving the game, this has got to feel like a loss to SKC, the next step in running across what a muddy field of season. How different would the commentary sound if Daniel Salloi puts away his shot?
Next Game: @ San Jose Earthquakes, and, lo, the ground becomes dry.

DC UNITED, 4-1-1, 13 points, 12 gf, 7 ga, (2-1-1 home, 2-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
D
W
W
L
D
W
v ATL
@ NYC
v RSL
@ ORL
v LAF
v MTL
@ COL
2-0
0-0
5-0
2-1
0-4
0-0
3-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A team has to score three goals when it gives up two this awful. A respectable enough win, but Colorado did gift them a couple. The Lucas Rodriguez took care of the rest. This isn’t a win to get excited about, not if you think you’re watching a decent team; and that’s why you have to win ‘em.
Next Game: v New York City FC, which fate and past events figure will end in a draw. Still, NYCFC would be a good team to kick before (or if) they get up.

HOUSTON DYNAMO, 4-0-1, 13 points, 12 gf, 6 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-0-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
W
W
W
v RSL
v MTL
v VAN
@ COL
v SJ
1-1
2-1
3-2
4-1
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They are totally dominating a schedule that’s seen them mostly playing weak teams in Houston. On the plus side, Alberth Elis played a monster game, the man absolutely tore it up. To give them their props, the highlights make you think San Jose didn’t do much, but the box score says otherwise.
Next Game: @ Los Angeles Galaxy, which will have the effect of finally checking your kid’s temperature after a half hour of trying to assure you that she is really, really sick.

FC DALLAS, 4-2-1, 13 points, 12 gf, 8 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
W
W
L
W
v NE
v LAG
@ CLB
v COL
@ RSL
@ PHI
v POR
1-1
2-0
0-1
2-1
4-2
1-2
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A surprisingly uncomfortable game against one of the worst teams in MLS. They got away with as many as three missed PK calls in the end (I thought two were real), and Portland coughed up a couple weird ones. I wrote longer notes on this game, and, after you know what I think about Portland, that should finish my thoughts about Dallas.
Next Game: @ Atlanta United FC, which is hard to read till the real Atlanta shows up. I think just about any potential ending makes some sense.

COLUMBUS CREW SC, 4-2-1, 13 points, 7 gf, 5 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
W
L
W
W
L
v NYR
@ NE
v FCD
@ PHI
v ATL
v NE
@ MTL
1-1
2-0
1-0
0-3
2-0
1-0
0-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Arguably unfortunate to get nothing out of this game (they came this close to equalizing), but Columbus is succeeding on thin margins.
Next Game: v Portland Timbers, or just a great opportunity to recover from this loss.

PHILADELPHIA UNION, 3-3-1, 10 points, 9 gf, 9 ga, (2-1-0 home, 1-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
D
W
W
W
L
v TFC
@ SKC
@ ATL
v CLB
@ CIN
v FCD
@ LAG
1-3
0-2
1-1
3-0
2-0
2-1
0-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: I didn’t see a whole lot of Philly in the highlights, so I’m guessing the box score flatters them. Sure, it’s a game you should expect them to lose, but it’s still not good for the Union that they did. Mountain looks a little taller, basically.
Next Game: v Montreal Impact, aka, one of those games a team needs to win in order to feel good about itself. They put themselves in a place where they can compete, but they still have to do it.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC, 3-2-1, 10 points, 14 gf, 11 ga, (0-0-1 home, 3-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
L
L
W
D
@ VAN
@ SJ
@ LA
@ NE
@ NYR
v NYC
3-2
3-0
2-3
1-2
2-1
3-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Won’t lie: seeing Minnesota draw at their Real-Dad-Home-Opener felt like a let-down, especially after Sean Johnson literally did everything he could to help out. That said, the result felt telling – e.g., for all Minnesota’s improvement, they still seem to get pulled apart by teams with talent. If NYCFC didn’t have the same glass jaw…
Next Game: @ Toronto FC, which I don’t see ending well for them, and now I’m worried about their buzz.

MONTREAL IMPACT, 3-2-2, 11 points, 8 gf, 11 ga, (1-0-0 home, 2-2-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
L
W
L
D
D
W
@ SJ
@ HOU
@ ORL
@ SKC
@ NYC
@ DC
v CLB
2-1
1-2
3-1
1-7
0-0
0-0
1-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: To coin a phrase, that winning goal was so fucking Montreal, opportunistic, etc. Montreal often feels like a team that’s getting away with something. It wasn’t quite a case of no Ignacio (Piatti), no problem, but L’Impact looked good for it.
Next Game: @ Philadelphia Union, which would be like a robbing a liquor store (with zero casualties) if they pull it off.

FC CINCINNATI, 2-3-2, 8 points, 8 gf, 10 ga, (1-1-1 home, 1-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
D
W
W
L
D
L
@ SEA
@ ATL
v POR
@ NE
v PHI
v SKC
@ LAF
1-4
1-1
3-0
2-0
0-2
1-1
0-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: It’s been a bad skid, and the opposition has had a lot to do with it. As explained at length in my extended notes on this game, I think this game finally revealed FC Cincy’s competitive level – at least for now. They’ll struggle against teams who have their shit together, basically.
Next Game: v Real Salt Lake, who are not one of those teams. On the want/need spectrum, this game falls closer to “need.” RSL already sucks on the road, they’re 2.0 goals against in 2019.

ORLANDO CITY SC, 2-3-2, 8 points, 11 gf, 13 ga, (1-2-1 home, 1-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
D
L
W
L
W
L
v NYC
@ CHI
v MTL
@ NYR
v DC
v COL
@ RSL
2-2
1-1
1-3
1-0
1-2
4-3
1-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Another week, another brave loss. More than any other team in MLS, it feels like Orlando has to travel to Hell and back to get a win. The highlights showed only Nani’s free-kick goal, but thebox score shows Orlando playing RSL even.
Next Game: v Vancouver Whitecaps, or a decent shot at getting your season headed in the right direction.

REAL SALT LAKE, 2-4-1, 7 points, 7 gf, 14 ga, (2-1-0 home, 0-3-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
L
L
L
W
@ HOU
v VAN
@ DC
@LAF
v FCD
@ SEA
v ORL
1-1
1-0
0-5
1-2
2-4
0-1
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Seeing that they needed both goals, I’m glad they made the second one pretty. That’s a reminder that RSL does have some talent. They just don’t have enough, which is sort of everything.
Next Game: @ FC Cincinnati, where I don’t like their chances enough that I’ll respect the result a little more if they get one.

NEW YORK RED BULLS, 1-3-2, 5 points, 8 gf, 8 ga, (1-2-0 home, 0-1-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
L
L
D
@ CLB
v SJ
v ORL
@ CHI
v MIN
@ SKC
1-1
4-1
0-1
0-1
1-2
2-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: With the failure to score among the likeliest suspect for Red Bulls comatose 2019, scoring two composed goals (great shot, great cross) has to feel like winning the lottery. That said, they got fairly roundly out-played; then again, it was against SKC in KC.
Next Game: @ New England Revolution, where they will rue anything short of all 3 points.

NEW YORK CITY FC, 0-1-5, 5 points, 7 gf, 11 ga, (0-0-3 home, 0-1-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
D
D
L
D
D
@ ORL
v DC
v LAF
@ TFC
v MTL
v NYC
2-2
0-0
2-2
0-4
0-0
3-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Took in the condensed game for this one and, honestly, NYCFC looked the better team and video and numbers generally back that up. So, promising in one sense, but what happened to Sean Johnson speaks to the cosmos’ resistance to this team doing anything but drawing.
Next Game: @ DC United, it’s kind of fucked up, in that a draw in DC would be a decent result. All the same, NYCFC has to get off the mediocrity schneid at some point, or there will be consequences.

CHICAGO FIRE, 1-2-3, 6 points, 8 gf, 10 ga, (1-1-2 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
D
L
W
D
D
@ LA
v ORL
v SEA
v NYR
@ TFC
v VAN
1-2
1-1
2-4
1-0
2-2
1-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: I sat through the condensed game to see if I could see what had people casting respectful glances at the Fire. Aleksandar Katai was the only guy who really caught my eye (well, David Ousted’s gone weird), and it’s because he tries everything (so much that his wild stabs don't make the highlights). They look pretty damn ineffectual in the end, the Fire. I dunno, maybe it’ll get better.
Next Game: v Colorado Rapids, a must-win for a team trying to prove anything.

ATLANTA UNITED FC, 1-2-2, 5 points, 4 gf, 6 ga, (0-0-2 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
W
D
L
W
@ DC
v CIN
v PHI
@ CLB
@ NE
0-2
1-1
1-1
0-2
2-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: As alluded to above (see New England’s entry), they looked like Atlanta 2018.1 out there, just slipping through the Revs’ defense over and over again. It was pretty impressive. Still a lot of questions, though.
Next Game: v FC Dallas, where a win would go some distance toward answering them. Feels like a most-monitor game, no matter how it ends up.

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION, 1-5-1, 4 points, 5 gf, 12 ga, (1-3-0 home, 0-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
L
L
W
L
L
@ FCD
v CLB
@ TFC
v CIN
v MIN
@ CLB
v ATL
1-1
0-2
2-3
0-2
2-1
0-1
0-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: First, Cody Cropper had a great fucking game. Going the other way, Atlanta was the reason he had to. There are a couple possibilities here: either the week off did Atlanta wonders, or the Revs are the kind of team who lets other teams be their best possible selves.
Next Game: v New York Red Bulls, or the Revs’ next rehabilitation project. They are saints, I tell you. SAINTS!

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES, 1-5-0, 3 points, 6 gf, 16 ga, (1-3-0 home, 0-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
L
L
W
L
v MTL
v MIN
@ NYR
v LAF
v POR
@ HOU
1-2
0-3
1-4
0-5
3-0
1-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They got beat by a better team who was playing in their own house. To call out some pluses, Jackson Yueill got into the attack pretty well, and I keep seeing good things from Cristian Espinoza. They’ll probably get a few more shots of morale before the season ends…
Next Game: v Sporting Kansas City, but, no, not this week.

COLORADO RAPIDS, 0-5-2, 2 points, 11 gf, 19 ga, (0-2-2 home, 0-3-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
D
L
L
L
L
v POR
@ SEA
v SKC
@ FCD
v HOU
@ ORL
v DC
3-3
0-2
1-1
1-2
1-4
3-4
2-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Benny Feilhaber is working, Kei Kamara has done what he goes (but why do Rapids players scatter like they’re trying to clear the dance floor for him). In their defense, they put up real numbers. They also lost again. Whatever the supporting cast looks like on paper, it doesn’t come to life often enough. And that spells another bad season in Colorado.
Next Game: @ Chicago Fire, which…you figure they’re gonna lose because, that’s what keeps happening. And Chicago…that’s not a team you want to lose to.

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS, 0-4-2, 2 points, 5 gf, 10 ga, (0-2-1 home, 0-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
L
D
L
D
v MIN
@ RSL
@ HOU
v SEA
v LA
@ CHI
2-3
0-1
2-3
0-0
0-2
1-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: I watched this entire, fairly pointless condensed game just to confirm my belief that Vancouver fluked their way to whatever success they had. Confirmed. I also heard mention they came out defensively and, in their defense, they succeeded in not giving up a lot. One step at a time, I guess.
Next Game: v Los Angeles FC April 17 (no, not ready), then @ Orlando City SC on April 20, which feels like a plan to sabotage a fragile team, but, OK. It’s just too plausible for them to tak zero points from both games.

PORTLAND TIMBERS, 0-5-1, 1 point, 6 gf, 17 ga, (0-0-0 home, 0-5-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
L
L
L
L
@ COL
@ LAF
@ CIN
@ LAG
@ SJ
@ FCD
3-3
1-4
0-3
1-2
0-3
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: As discussed in the extended notes, the Timbers closed strong at least, and I do think Giovanni Savarese has a decent sense of how to play a (currently) weak hand (give daddy a joker!). I think they have about 50-55 competitive minutes per game in them. Yeah.
Next Game: @ Columbus Crew SC, for which I’m soliciting dares I’d have to complete if the Timbers win this one.

That should be everyone accounted for. God willing, I didn’t fuck up in the numbers. Till next week.

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