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| The Timbers have many friends in their new home... |
Andrew Wiebe reminded me why I started the Form Guide ULTRA
when he opened The Mothership’s weekly round-up on Matchday Central with this:
“If you think you know this league, think again.” I’m willing as the next guy
to acknowledge that MLS hits its quota of “WTF” games every week, but that
thinking always feels like a cop out to me, or maybe just quitter talk.. With fewer exceptions than you’d think
- e.g., one team having another’s number, like Portland Timbers have had Real
Salt Lake’s for the last two seasons (or the way Columbus Crew SC can’t stop
beating the New England Revolution this season) – there’s always detail, some
trend, just something that makes sense of just about every result.
That said, the Form Guide ULTRA does better with explaining
results than it does predicting them, and spotting the beginning of a trend is
anything but an exact science. In some ways, it’s simply the process of holding
hypotheses about every team in MLS and letting the results from the games hold
‘em up, or knock ‘em down.
The process continues below, with nine teams now six games
into the season, and most of the rest of five games, plus a couple stragglers
on four games. A couple story-lines have firmed up into received wisdom – e.g.,
Los Angeles FC is the early favorite, Columbus Crew SC has quietly taken the
top spot in the Eastern Conference, and the Philadelphia Union appear to have
their shit together in 2019 – but MLS does have a nasty habit of keeping the
majority of questions open. For instance: what to make of the Seattle Sounders
and Toronto FC coming off stride while hosting (comparative) lightweights RSL
and the Chicago Fire, respectively; are we all still certain that the way
Sporting Kansas City keeps dropping points won’t matter down the line; and,
finally, to ask the same question every MLS fan asks every season, will the
real Montreal Impact please stand up?
Speculation on that kind of thing is down below, along with
the blunt reality of results. As with every week’s post, I “ranked” all the
teams in the league down below, but too loosely for the specific order to mean
anything. I am, however, sure of one thing: the four Western Conference teams
all the way at the bottom are exactly where they belong. Shit’s ugly.
Anyway, notes and results are down below. I’ll be writing
the narrative recap of Week mostly 5/6 tonight and you’ll find a link to it in
this very spot once it goes up.
LOS ANGELES FC, 5-0-1,
16 points, 19 gf, 5 ga, (3-0-0 home, 2-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
v SKC
|
v POR
|
@ NYC
|
v RSL
|
@ SJ
|
@ DC
|
2-1
|
4-1
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
5-0
|
4-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: The distressingly clear favorite so
far, but seeing them wring all of those turnovers out of DC’s midfield makes me
a believer. Intentions announced, people.
Next Game: v FC Cincinnati, which does not project
well for the visitors.
SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 4-0-1,
13 points, 11 gf, 3 ga, (3-0-0 home, 1-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
v CIN
|
v COL
|
@ CHI
|
@ VAN
|
v RSL
|
4-1
|
2-0
|
4-2
|
0-0
|
1-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: The concern here is that RSL
punched pretty damn even in this game (see box score). Seattle’s margin
could be shrinking; just something to watch.
Next Game: @ Colorado Rapids, a game they’d do well
to handle with aplomb.
COLUMBUS CREW SC,
4-1-1, 13 points, 7 gf, 4 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
v NYR
|
@ NE
|
v FCD
|
@ PHI
|
v ATL
|
v NE
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
0-3
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Quietly grinding their way to the
top of the East while everyone gushes over DC. As for their schedule, one could
call it easy, or argue that Columbus has made it easy.
Next Game: @ Montreal Impact, who gets a tough out
for its home opener.
TORONTO FC, 3-0-1, 10
points, 12 gf, 5 ga, (2-0-1 home, 1-0-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
W
|
W
|
D
|
@ PHI
|
v NE
|
v NYC
|
v CHI
|
3-1
|
3-2
|
4-0
|
2-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: I don’t think the draw takes away
from them, even if I have questions about Chicago’s second goal (too easy). They’re
getting points where they should.
Next Game: @ Seattle Sounders, which feels like one
of several games to watch next weekend.
SPORTING KC, 2-1-1, 7
points, 11 gf, 4 ga, (2-0-0 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
W
|
D
|
W
|
D
|
@ LAF
|
v PHI
|
@ COL
|
v MTL
|
@ CIN
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
7-1
|
1-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: As expanded upon in my review of this game, SKC tried to smuggle three points out of Cincinnati with a B-team, and
came close. That said, it was a weird game, with lots of missed opportunities
for both teams.
Next Game: v New York Red Bulls. I’m guessing they
try the B-team again, which isn’t crazy given the state of the Red Bulls, but I
do think that (apparently) trying to salvage their CCL fortunes is a little
dotty. Having more tested players could pay off down the stretch.
DC UNITED, 3-1-1, 10
points, 9 gf, 5 ga, (2-1-0 home, 1-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
v ATL
|
@ NYC
|
v RSL
|
@ ORL
|
v LAF
|
2-0
|
0-0
|
5-0
|
2-1
|
0-4
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: My current theory about DC – e.g.,
that the hype-train left the station a little early – held up. So I downgraded
them. DC is good, maybe a top 6 team, but it's down to them to back up the hype.
Next Game: v Montreal Impact on April 9 (which just got
a lot more interesting), then @ Colorado Rapids April 13. Both should be
winnable. DC will look like a different team if they take less than three
points.
FC DALLAS, 3-2-1, 10
points, 10 gf, 7 ga, (2-0-1 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
v NE
|
v LAG
|
@ CLB
|
v COL
|
@ RSL
|
@ PHI
|
1-1
|
2-0
|
0-1
|
2-1
|
4-2
|
1-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Losing in Philly isn’t so bad, not
with the Union’s upswing. It’s too early to call Dallas soft on the road, but
that’s a trend to track. All the same, Dallas looks capable enough to take
seriously. Especially, for…
Next Game: v Portland Timbers, aka, the dream date every
team in MLS wants at the moment.
HOUSTON DYNAMO,
3-0-1, 10 points, 10 gf, 5 ga, (2-0-1 home, 1-0-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
v RSL
|
v MTL
|
v VAN
|
@ COL
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
3-2
|
4-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: They had the week off, but still the
surprise team in the Western Conference, maybe even the league.
Next Game: v San Jose Earthquakes, which should give
them three points and a larger legend.
PHILADELPHIA UNION, 3-2-1,
10 points, 9 gf, 7 ga, (2-1-0 home, 1-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
v TFC
|
@ SKC
|
@ ATL
|
v CLB
|
@ CIN
|
v FCD
|
1-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
2-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Winning against real teams, sometimes
in tricky locations, and that’s the litmus test in MLS. Every game since their
win over Columbus (only team to do it) only confirms they’re headed in a good
direction (and they stuffed Dallas pretty hard).
Next Game: @ LA Galaxy, which seems like it matters
more to LA than it does to Philly, but, if the Union win that one, holy shit…
LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 4-1-0,
12 points, 9 gf, 6 ga, (3-0-0 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
L
|
W
|
W
|
W
|
v CHI
|
@ FCD
|
v MIN
|
v POR
|
@ VAN
|
2-1
|
0-2
|
3-2
|
2-1
|
2-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Whether they’re just Zlatan
Ibrahimovic [and supporting cast], the Galaxy are 4-1-0. They beat a Vancouver team battling to an identity, but they beat them in Vancouver. Wins are wins and they keep
piling up on both sides of LA.
Next Game: v Philadelphia Union, yet another big one for
next weekend with bragging rights and seriously positive trends on the line.
MINNESOTA UNITED FC,
3-2-0, 9 points, 11 gf, 8 ga, (0-0-0 home, 3-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
@ VAN
|
@ SJ
|
@ LA
|
@ NE
|
@ NYR
|
3-2
|
3-0
|
2-3
|
1-2
|
2-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Good enough to take points where
the opportunity presents – the only surprise being that it didn’t “present” in
New England – and, with some home games in the bank, they look plausible to
compete for the playoffs.
Next Game: v New York City FC, who look like they’ll
make an appropriate sacrifice to open the Loons’ new stadium.
FC CINCINNATI, 2-2-2,
8 points, 8 gf, 8 ga, (1-1-1 home, 1-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
D
|
W
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
@ SEA
|
@ ATL
|
v POR
|
@ NE
|
v PHI
|
v SKC
|
1-4
|
1-1
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: I have extended notes on this game,
none of them more clarifying than this brief summary: FC Cincy is competing
very well, thank you, but it’s still totally unclear as to whether that will be
enough. Regardless, that’s a solid start for an expansion team.
Next Game: @ Los Angeles FC, which can’t possibly go
well, but everyone can dream.
MONTREAL IMPACT, 2-2-1,
7 points, 7 gf, 11 ga, (0-0-0 home, 2-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
D
|
@ SJ
|
@ HOU
|
@ ORL
|
@ SKC
|
@ NYC
|
2-1
|
1-2
|
3-1
|
1-7
|
0-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: A decent turn-around from getting
their asses whipped the week prior, but the box score says they held on by a thread. Seven points looks like a decent return on a five-game road swing, but their
two wins came against pretty crap teams. Which is notable.
Next Game: @ DC United April 9, then v Columbus April
13, a hell week all things considered; I’d call them either good or lucky if
they get three points or more.
ORLANDO CITY SC, 2-2-2,
8 points, 10 gf, 11 ga, (1-2-1 home, 1-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
W
|
v NYC
|
@ CHI
|
v MTL
|
@ NYR
|
v DC
|
v COL
|
2-2
|
1-1
|
1-3
|
1-0
|
1-2
|
4-3
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Another entry in the legend of a
scrappy, never-say-die team. They’re showing they won’t be the worst team in
MLS in 2019, but it’s hard to believe they’ve got a high ceiling.
Next Game: @ Real Salt Lake, which I’d wager will
play out as something of a brawl.
CHICAGO FIRE, 1-2-2, 5
points, 7 gf, 9 ga, (1-1-1 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
D
|
L
|
W
|
D
|
@ LA
|
v ORL
|
v SEA
|
v NYR
|
@ TFC
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
2-4
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: You’re objectively borrowing
against fate when C. J. Sapong scores a goal like that, but Aleksandar Katai is
an upgrade over Michael de Leuww, and maybe that’s what they needed all along.
The last two results put a little oomph to sporadic hype behind Chicago.
Next Game: v Vancouver Whitecaps, aka, an excellent
chance to add a little more oomph.
NEW ENGLAND
REVOLUTION, 1-4-1, 4 points, 5 gf, 10 ga, (1-2-0 home, 0-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
L
|
@ FCD
|
v CLB
|
@ TFC
|
v CIN
|
v MIN
|
@ CLB
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
2-3
|
0-2
|
2-1
|
0-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Looks
like the succumbed to a Columbus Special (e.g., a low-shots affair where Columbus
got the one goal), about what you’d expect, and anything but encouraging.
Next Game: v Atlanta United FC, and god knows what’ll
happen there.
NEW YORK RED BULLS,
1-3-1, 4 points, 6 gf, 6 ga, (1-2-0 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
@ CLB
|
v SJ
|
v ORL
|
@ CHI
|
v MIN
|
1-1
|
4-1
|
0-1
|
0-1
|
1-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: One of those weird things where
more or less the same players suddenly stop producing (Timbers fans should feel
this one). Nothing in the video or the box score looks wrong, only the result does.
Next Game: @ Sporting Kansas City, which is very
unlikely to improve the situation.
REAL SALT LAKE, 1-4-1,
4 points, 5 gf, 13 ga, (1-1-0 home, 0-3-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
W
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
@ HOU
|
v VAN
|
@ DC
|
@LAF
|
v FCD
|
@ SEA
|
1-1
|
1-0
|
0-5
|
1-2
|
2-4
|
0-1
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Still bad on the road and, judging
by the loss/meltdown against Dallas at Rio Tinto, not so great at home either.
Next Game: v Orlando City SC, who will give them a
battle. If RSL can’t put get all through points out of this one…ugly, man,
it’ll be ugly.
NEW YORK CITY FC, 0-1-4,
4 points, 4 gf, 8 ga, (0-0-3 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
D
|
D
|
L
|
D
|
@ ORL
|
v DC
|
v LAF
|
@ TFC
|
v MTL
|
2-2
|
0-0
|
2-2
|
0-4
|
0-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: They. Can’t. Stop. Drawing. A team that
consistently over-produces on the numbers, while under-producing on the result.
Next Game: @ Minnesota United FC, which would not
make me feel comfortable as an NYCFC fan.
ATLANTA UNITED FC,
0-2-2, 2 points, 2 gf, 6 ga, (0-0-2 home, 0-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
W
|
D
|
L
|
@ DC
|
v CIN
|
v PHI
|
@ CLB
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-1
|
0-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: A crap start for any team, but
disastrous for the defending champions, who are getting beat up by the Eastern
Conference’s reigning powers. We'll see if the players have picked up/bought
into Frank de Boer’s system during their time off.
Next Game: @ New England Revolution, aka, a
reasonable shot at getting back on track.
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES,
1-4-0, 3 points, 5 gf, 14 ga, (1-3-0 home, 0-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
W
|
v MTL
|
v MIN
|
@ NYR
|
v LAF
|
v POR
|
1-2
|
0-3
|
1-4
|
0-5
|
3-0
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: While it doesn’t change
perceptions, or make the result anything other than one dodgy team beating
another one, San Jose must have delighted at the privilege of putting another
team through the paddle-wheel. And Tommy Thompson is my motivational speaker.
Next Game: @ Houston Dynamo, which, no, I don’t see
them winning. We’ll see whether the ‘Quakes can stay away from the “whipping
boy” mantle they handed off to Portland.
COLORADO RAPIDS, 0-4-2,
2 points, 9 gf, 16 ga, (0-1-2 home, 0-3-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
v POR
|
@ SEA
|
v SKC
|
@ FCD
|
v HOU
|
@ ORL
|
3-3
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
1-2
|
1-4
|
3-4
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: It looked a valiant loss, but it’s
still their third straight and their season highlight – drawing Sporting KC in
Colorado – recedes further into the past every week.
Next Game: v Seattle Sounders, or another shot at
something short of glory.
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS,
0-4-1, 1 point, 4 gf, 9 ga, (0-2-1 home, 0-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
|
L
|
L
|
D
|
L
|
v MIN
|
@ RSL
|
@ HOU
|
v SEA
|
v LA
|
2-3
|
0-1
|
2-3
|
0-0
|
0-2
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: I’ll start with a big thank you to
the ‘Caps for volunteering to keep Portland company in The Pit of Despair. I
heard Vancouver started well, and that their profligacy (panenka!) in front of
goal left open the door for something big and Swedish to crash the party. I
also see they’ve lost
Next Game: @ Chicago Fire, and I wouldn't bet on Vancouver in that one, but...what if?
PORTLAND TIMBERS,
0-4-1, 1 point, 5 gf, 15 ga, (0-0-0 home, 0-4-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
L
|
@ COL
|
@ LAF
|
@ CIN
|
@ LAG
|
@ SJ
|
3-3
|
1-4
|
0-3
|
1-2
|
0-3
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
N/A
|
Current Judgment: Factually fucking terrible rn. Here's the screed I wrote to celebrate.
Next Game: Honestly, does it matter? Fine. @ FC
Dallas, and I’ll seize on any promising sign with the fervor of a drowning man.
That should be everyone accounted for. God willing, I didn’t
fuck up in the numbers. Till next week.
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