Monday, April 22, 2019

MLS Form Guide ULTRA, Week Mostly-8: Of Sun-Belt Titans and Basement Dwellers


I use the phrase approvingly.
I still have to crap out the narrative summary, so I’m going to let the Info-Boxes (TM) speak for themselves, if with a few exceptions. Those are:

- Both Texas teams look good. Ditto for both Los Angeles teams. Some big names are sputtering loudly enough to wake the neighbors – e.g., your Sporting Kansas Citys, your New York Red Bulls, your Atlanta United FCs, but that’s old news for all those teams (and whichever sports dork came up with the phrasing owes the English language an apology). The more surprising entries include that late stumblers – e.g., DC United, (hurts, but) FC Cincinnati and…dare I type Columbus Crew SC? Going the other way, Real Salt Lake is threatening a revival.

OK, that’s everything for this space; the rest will go in the narrative summary on Orange & Blue Press. On with the Info-Boxes, where recent results and my notes on it all live.

LOS ANGELES FC, 7-1-1, 22 points, 21 gf, 5 ga, (5-0-0 home, 2-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
D
W
W
W
W
L
W
v SKC
v POR
@ NYC
v RSL
@ SJ
@ DC
v CIN
@ VAN
v SEA
2-1
4-1
2-2
2-1
5-0
4-0
2-0
0-1
4-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Naturally, jaws dropped around the league when Vancouver stunned LAFC at midweek, but it was as close as it looked, and not many teams do…just this. LAFC went on to score goals against Seattle like they were making up for two losses; seriously, they just carved them apart. Carlos Vela gets the most hype, but Eduardo Atuesta and Mark-Anthony Kaye put every goal on a platter in this game..
Next Game: @ Seattle Sounders, where we will see how well LAFC manages a vengeance-minded team. (Fwiw, I’d cherish the pain that a loss would cause Seattle’s fans, who are the most gratingly brittle in MLS.)

SEATTLE SOUNDERS, 5-1-1, 16 points, 15 gf, 9 ga, (4-0-0 home, 1-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
W
D
W
W
L
v CIN
v COL
@ CHI
@ VAN
v RSL
v TFC
@ LAF
4-1
2-0
4-2
0-0
1-0
3-2
1-4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They had some big absences (e.g., Chad Marshall, Raul Ruidiaz), but neither of them play in the area where the Sounders had their real problems. The highlights suggested that LAFC did to Seattle’s midfield what they did to DC’s a couple weeks back – i.e., they kicked both shit and stuffing right out of them. Again, Atuesta and Kaye are ominous.
Next Game: v San Jose Earthquakes, April 24, a must-win on paper, and v Los Angeles FC, April 28, which, together, present as a run of the schedule where anything north of four points feels great.

LOS ANGELES GALAXY, 6-1-0, 18 points, 13 gf, 7 ga, (5-0-0 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
L
W
W
W
W
W
v CHI
@ FCD
v MIN
v POR
@ VAN
v PHI
v HOU
2-1
0-2
3-2
2-1
2-0
2-0
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Good as he is, I can’t help but believe Zlatan would be migraine-inducing to play with (see miming a run into the box to criticize Emmanuel Boateng, or his disinterest in celebrating Diego Polenta’s game winner). All the same, and even if Houston played ‘em close, both he and LA keep racking up the Ws.
Next Game: @ Minnesota United FC, April 24, then v Real Salt Lake, April 28, both of which are pretty damn likely to grow the Galaxy’s legend and Zlatan’s ego. What you’re watching for is whether they take less than four points.

FC DALLAS, 5-2-1, 16 points, 14 gf, 9 ga, (3-0-1 home, 2-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
W
W
L
W
W
v NE
v LAG
@ CLB
v COL
@ RSL
@ PHI
v POR
@ ATL
1-1
2-0
0-1
2-1
4-2
1-2
2-1
2-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Two words, one (mostly) full name: Jesus Ferreira, just 18 and already he has 3 goals, 2 assists. A grizzled veteran deserves his due as well: Dallas needs to do something special for Michael Barrios when he retires for doing so much for them and for so long – including two assists. Everything says Dallas chose to cede the game (see the formation), but they still smuggled three points out of town.
Next Game: v San Jose Earthquakes, whose the script hasn’t really changed (yet), so it’s an important game to win.

HOUSTON DYNAMO, 4-1-1, 13 points, 13 gf, 8 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
W
W
W
L
v RSL
v MTL
v VAN
@ COL
v SJ
@ LAG
1-1
2-1
3-2
4-1
2-1
1-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: The box score speaks quite well of Houston, and Mauro Manotas had a couple chances to steal at least one point (best one). Given the Galaxy’s current form, and Houston’s history on the road, color me impressed.
Next Game: v Columbus Crew SC, a game they’ll want to win very badly, because home power.

TORONTO FC, 4-1-1, 13 points, 18 gf, 11 ga, (3-0-1 home, 1-1-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
W
D
L
W
@ PHI
v NE
v NYC
v CHI
@ SEA
v MIN
3-1
3-2
4-0
2-2
2-3
4-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: The Alejandro Pozuelo Show stayed on the air for yet another week (and what he did to Michael Boxall…hide the children), but one very important stat lurks in the above: TFC has given up 8 of its 11 goals in the last three games – with two of those at home against…opposition of a certain reputation.
Next Game: v. Portland Timbers, which is totally unreadable at this point in time, but getting the defense squared away has to start pretty damn soon.

PHILADELPHIA UNION, 4-3-1, 13 points, 12 gf, 9 ga, (3-1-0 home, 1-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
D
W
W
W
L
W
v TFC
@ SKC
@ ATL
v CLB
@ CIN
v FCD
@ LAG
v MTL
1-3
0-2
1-1
3-0
2-0
2-1
0-2
3-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Based on what I watched, the Union dominated, hence broad upgrade. That said, the box score is actually shocking, a makes-no-damn-sense nightmare to interpret, but, all the same Jamiro Monteiro looked like the real deal, and Philly only needs so many of those to come good.
Next Game: @ Vancouver Whitecaps, which files under…sure, serve it up. A Philly win would be impressive, a Vancouver loss confusing.

DC UNITED, 4-2-2, 13 points, 12 gf, 9 ga, (2-2-1 home, 2-0-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
D
W
W
L
D
W
L
v ATL
@ NYC
v RSL
@ ORL
v LAF
v MTL
@ COL
v NYC
2-0
0-0
5-0
2-1
0-4
0-0
3-2
0-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They just plain got beat – even on the numbers. And, with that, the semi-soft wins (e.g., road victories over Orlando and Colorado) start to look like someone laying down a floor for them, while all the rest feel like a ceiling pushing ever lower. They’ve picked up just four points of 12, and with three of those games played at home. It’s…not ideal.
Next Game: @ Columbus Crew SC, April 24, which just got much, much, much more interesting, and @ Minnesota, which makes for a busy week that will tend either positive or destructive.

SPORTING KC, 2-2-3, 9 points, 14 gf, 10 ga, (2-0-1 home, 0-2-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
W
D
W
D
D
L
@ LAF
v PHI
@ COL
v MTL
@ CIN
v NYR
@ SJ
1-2
2-0
1-1
7-1
1-1
2-2
1-4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They have yet to really get going in 2019…as you can see. As for specifics, it’s hard to read how much trouble they had breaking through, but too many of the shots they got were wild as Krisztian Nemeth’s penalty kick. Everyone assumes they’ll get going, I think; what I don’t know is when the indulgent assumptions dry up.
Next Game: v New England Revolution, which simply has to be a win to keep the stink from sticking.

COLUMBUS CREW SC, 4-3-1, 13 points, 8 gf, 8 ga, (3-1-1 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
W
L
W
W
L
L
v NYR
@ NE
v FCD
@ PHI
v ATL
v NE
@ MTL
v POR
1-1
2-0
1-0
0-3
2-0
1-0
0-1
1-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: I’ll give this game a longer look later this week, but the Crew needed a bounce after last week and failed to deliver – and after exceeding their normal goal production by a decent stretch. Where they didn’t flail, Portland’s Jeff Attinella cleaned it up, and when you live on thin margins, you have to finish.
Next Game: v DC United, April 24, which suddenly feels like a very big deal for them and @ Houston Dynamo, April 27, and I think a combined goal/ceiling sits at 3 points out of that, though two draws wouldn’t be awful.

REAL SALT LAKE, 3-4-1, 10 points, 10 gf, 14 ga, (2-1-0 home, 1-3-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
L
L
L
W
W
@ HOU
v VAN
@ DC
@LAF
v FCD
@ SEA
v ORL
@ CIN
1-1
1-0
0-5
1-2
2-4
0-1
2-1
3-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A first road win this early in the season for RSL is a contextually big deal. As I failed to emphasize in my notes, they did it by rope-a-doping an over-eager FC Cincy side. When they had chances to counter, they tore it the hell up. My extended notes did reveal that Albert Rusnak lead the charge, broken fingers and all.
Next Game: @ Los Angeles Galaxy, where a win would justify changing perceptions. Honestly.

MINNESOTA UNITED FC, 3-3-1, 10 points, 17 gf, 15 ga, (0-0-1 home, 3-3-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
W
L
L
W
D
L
@ VAN
@ SJ
@ LA
@ NE
@ NYR
v NYC
@ TFC
3-2
3-0
2-3
1-2
2-1
3-3
3-4
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: For the first time in Loons history, they have a pretty damn good attack – as in, they played TFC even in Toronto and Darwin Quintero is having another highly-effective season while the attention is focused on everyone else. Sadly, they have the same defense and it’s “killing” them (but is it? they’re playing .500 ball on the road). In this case, the culprit was Michael Boxall…pretty much all over the place, and they’re without Jan Gregus and Francisco(?) Calvo for the next match due to red cards. Nightmarish game.
Next Game: v LA Galaxy, April 24, and v DC United, April 28, aka, a damn good chance for Minnesota to take it all the way to the goddamn stage.

ORLANDO CITY SC, 3-3-2, 11 points, 12 gf, 13 ga, (2-2-1 home, 1-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
D
L
W
L
W
L
W
v NYC
@ CHI
v MTL
@ NYR
v DC
v COL
@ RSL
v VAN
2-2
1-1
1-3
1-0
1-2
4-3
1-2
1-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A team with this much MLS-proven talent shouldn’t have to fight so damn hard, but they do. As noted above, they’ve never managed a two-goal win – and that includes a game against fucking Colorado. On the plus side, Nani looks like he’s coming on, and maybe that’ll bring them some relief.
Next Game: @ New York City FC, which shouldn’t end well, but God knows.

MONTREAL IMPACT, 3-3-2, 11 points, 8 gf, 14 ga, (1-0-0 home, 2-3-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
W
L
W
L
D
D
W
L
@ SJ
@ HOU
@ ORL
@ SKC
@ NYC
@ DC
v CLB
@ PHI
2-1
1-2
3-1
1-7
0-0
0-0
1-0
0-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: They didn’t do much, even if Maxi Urruti had several documented moments, but this was another game without Ignacio Piatti. If I walked in their shoes, I’d worry more about how hard their goal differential could fuck them over at the end of the season. Even if they’re pikers by Colorado’s standards, Montreal has given up the most goals in the East.
Next Game: @ New England Revolution, April 24, which will probably be tricky, and v Chicago Fire, April 28, which is a game they need to win. It’s time to wonder about the East a little if they don’t.

CHICAGO FIRE, 2-2-3, 9 points, 12 gf, 11 ga, (2-1-2 home, 0-1-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
D
L
W
D
D
W
@ LA
v ORL
v SEA
v NYR
@ TFC
v VAN
v COL
1-2
1-1
2-4
1-0
2-2
1-1
4-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A pretty fair display of the Fire’s improved arsenal, what with Nicolas Gaitan dropping a perfect cross to a perfect foil (e.g., Nemanja Nikolic), and Aleksandar Katai (incredibly) getting his first goal of 2019 (and an assist). A review of the above results underscores the extent to which this is an outlier, also Colorado.
Next Game: @ New York City FC, April 24, and @ Montreal Impact, April 28, over which two points would be solid and anything north of three should catch folks’ attention.

FC CINCINNATI, 2-4-2, 8 points, 8 gf, 13 ga, (1-2-1 home, 1-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
D
W
W
L
D
L
L
@ SEA
@ ATL
v POR
@ NE
v PHI
v SKC
@ LAF
v RSL
1-4
1-1
3-0
2-0
0-2
1-1
0-2
0-3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Their record literally just hit home, I mean right as I typed it out. Shee-it. I invite people to read my longer, sadder notes on this loss, but I’d call the losses to Philly and RSL the nexus of the problem, cases where FC Cincy looked like the USL team they were in 2018 – stymied in the attack, and run through in defense.
Next Game: @ New York Red Bulls, and, honest to God, if they lose that one, it’s not unreasonable to panic.

NEW YORK CITY FC, 1-1-5, 8 points, 9 gf, 11 ga, (0-0-3 home, 1-1-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
D
D
L
D
D
W
@ ORL
v DC
v LAF
@ TFC
v MTL
@ MIN
@ DC
2-2
0-0
2-2
0-4
0-0
3-3
2-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: If that was Heber’s debut, he made one hell of a first impression. Moreover, NYCFC took the win with two goals to spare and Maxi Moralez hitting the post twice – one of them on a penalty kick. That DC is in a bad run of form makes this result a little tricky to read, especially when NYCFC is the soccer equivalent of a human person with no credit history…
Next Game: v Chicago Fire, April 24, and v Orlando City SC, April 27, or just one hell of a shot at gathering momentum. They need four points minimum, but six is the proper goal.

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION, 2-5-1, 7 points, 6 gf, 12 ga, (2-3-0 home, 0-2-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
L
L
W
L
L
W
@ FCD
v CLB
@ TFC
v CIN
v MIN
@ CLB
v ATL
v NYR
1-1
0-2
2-3
0-2
2-1
0-1
0-2
1-0
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: “[Again], Cody Cropper had a great fucking game,” which carries over from last weekend. That said, New England showed why they’re struggling (or just crap) in onebrief video clip. They scored a nice winner (with all the right people involved), while also getting lightly out-played.
Next Game: v Montreal Impact, April 24, which looms large, and @ Sporting Kansas City, April 27. They need three points out of that stretch just to get going.

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES, 2-5-0, 6 points, 10 gf, 17 ga, (2-3-0 home, 0-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
L
L
W
L
W
v MTL
v MIN
@ NYR
v LAF
v POR
@ HOU
v SKC
1-2
0-3
1-4
0-5
3-0
1-2
4-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: The biggest question about them is whether they’ve started to sort out the man-marking. It’s hard to read that from the box score, or even the condensed game, but Danny Hoesen having a goodgame matters nearly as much. And when your second bananas kick in (e.g. Shea Salinas), it’s all upside, so long as you can keep a clean sheet (eh, close enough).
Next Game: @ Seattle Sounders, April 24, and @ FC Dallas, April 27, aka, the full-on fucking gauntlet. They kicked the shit out of probability last weekend, so sit tight and shut up, I guess.

PORTLAND TIMBERS, 1-5-1, 4 points, 9 gf, 18 ga, (0-0-0 home, 1-5-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
L
L
L
L
W
@ COL
@ LAF
@ CIN
@ LAG
@ SJ
@ FCD
@ CLB
3-3
1-4
0-3
1-2
0-3
2-1
3-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: While I didn’t have time to watch the full game, it looks like Portland picked up from where they left off against Dallas, and that’s the most encouraging thing I’ve typed about Portland all season. Another good sign: the team reaction when Jorge Moreira scored hisgoal; a better sign is the fact that Cristian Paredes played the assist.
Next Game: @ Toronto FC, and I blame TFC’s recent record for making that feel like a total crap-shoot.

NEW YORK RED BULLS, 1-4-2, 5 points, 8 gf, 9 ga, (1-2-0 home, 0-2-2 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
W
L
L
L
D
L
@ CLB
v SJ
v ORL
@ CHI
v MIN
@ SKC
@ NE
1-1
4-1
0-1
0-1
1-2
2-2
0-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: A decent effort, in (yet) another close game. It’s becoming…nutty. Bradley Wright-Phillips isn’t seeing enough of the ball, and the whole goddamn Western Conference and most of the East is above them in goals scored. It’s not hard, in other words, to name the issue.
Next Game: v FC Cincinnati, where I have to sharpen my comments about last week’s match-up (“they will rue anything less than 3 points”). Losing to a stumbling Cincinnati side at home would officially stamp Red Bulls as a bad team in 2019.

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS, 1-5-2, 5 points, 6 gf, 11 ga, (1-2-1 home, 0-3-1 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
L
L
D
L
D
W
L
v MIN
@ RSL
@ HOU
v SEA
v LA
@ CHI
v LAF
@ ORL
2-3
0-1
2-3
0-0
0-2
1-1
1-0
0-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Several of their new signings look useful-to-good: Hwang In-beom stood out in both matches, but Jordy Reyna has some game and there’s hell of a lot more to Ali Adnan than that fluffed panenka. Impressive as it was that they played LAFC close to even, Orlando’s wasteful finishing matched how little a 5-3-2 formation bought them. I stand by my belief that they’ve got another year before it comes together.
Next Game: v Philadelphia Union, where I see no reason to like their chances. A draw would be good.

ATLANTA UNITED FC, 1-3-2, 5 points, 5 gf, 8 ga, (0-1-2 home, 1-2-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
L
D
D
L
W
L
@ DC
v CIN
v PHI
@ CLB
@ NE
v FCD
0-2
1-1
1-1
0-2
2-0
1-2
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: Not to put it all on Leandro Gonzalez Pirez (who is visibly, “fuck-it” tired), but this is how you lose a game where you’ve totally and completely out-played the opposition. That said, Atlanta’s numbers are creeping north; watch them.
Next Game: v Colorado Rapids, aka, a situation where, given the trends, they absolutely have to take advantage and all 3 points.

COLORADO RAPIDS, 0-6-2, 2 points, 12 gf, 23 ga, (0-2-2 home, 0-4-0 away)
Last Ten: N/A
D
L
D
L
L
L
L
L
v POR
@ SEA
v SKC
@ FCD
v HOU
@ ORL
v DC
@ CHI
3-3
0-2
1-1
1-2
1-4
3-4
2-3
4-1
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Current Judgment: While there’s certainly an argument to be had between the highlights and the box score, the latter makes plain that they did all right containing Chicago’s attack. And yet they gave up four goals (this should clarify how). They have rather generously excused the Portland Timbers from being the worst team in MLS. (Thanks!)
Next Game: @ Atlanta United FC, from which they couldn’t ask for a more uncertain opponent, at least on the road.

That’s all for this Mostly-Real Week 8.

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