Thursday, March 23, 2023

The Casual Fan's Preview, MLS Week 5: They Could Have Framed It Better

International "duty" calls.
It’s that special time of week, the Pro-Am festival of grasping after the right talking points and, often, outright making shit up about what to expect from your local team in the MLS Week ahead. (Per Science, an “MLS Week” lasts just six hours (the longer timeline is, predictably, a lie) and weighs just a little less than a small Maine Coon Cat.) Yessirs and Yes’Ms, it’s Preview time.

I liked MLS Week 4, I did, but it didn’t do MLS Week five a ton of favors – by which I mean the match-ups didn’t really come together. Most of the offerings involve increasingly desperate teams getting a little more desperate, several of them in settings and/or against teams that you don’t see throwing them a bone. It’s not all sad trombones; maybe one of those teams who picked up their first win of 2023 last weekend, or even the one or two who hinted they may have a little something raises the noise a couple decibels. We’ll see, we’ll see...

Oh, and to make the entire exercise even less clarifying, just about every team in MLS will be without some of their best players this weekend. While by no means exhaustive, this column gives a fair taste of how many kids ran off to Senior Skip, aka, international call-ups (aka, “international duty,” aka, “ID”). Quick shout to U.S. Soccer, helluva job with the scheduling and platform. Way to bury the product, dipshits. And shouldn’t you be hiring, like, a bunch of people? At any rate.

I’ll touch on every match below – I may even try to stuff a couple together in preposterous (wow, I haven’t used that word in years) conceptual boxes – but I’ll cross that bridge when I get to it. As for process, I watch a fair/stupid amount of MLS soccer every week and post some notes on it; here’s Week 4’s review (again). After that, it’s just staring at the current standings and the bless’d and holy Form Guide and seeing if that knocks loose something useful. Again, Science.

But, just like every week, I start with longer previews for the two teams I follow. Just to pretend, like one of those parents who pretends they don’t have a favorite kid, I’ll list the previews in the order they kick off this weekend.


All I can make out is "S-H-I-T." Ya prick.
Portland Timbers v Los Angles Galaxy
First and foremost, I can’t stress this enough:

“If my reeling Timbers didn’t have the Galaxy next...which, in all seriousness, could be Portland’s best chance at a win through the first 10 games of the season..., so why not start with the bad news?”

As Timbers fans...less know than feel, Portland sits on a 1-3-0 record that very much passes that eye test. They’ll have played five games after whatever happens this weekend and these are their next five games after that: @ FCD, @ VAN, v SEA, @ CIN, @ STL. First of all, holy fucking away games, who schedules this shit? On a slightly more substantive level, four of those either have a decent defensive records now (looking at Cincy), or a history of being stubborn, while the other bullied Portland into submission just a couple weekends ago (St. Louis CITY FC). Between the Timbers being on the road, an attack that can’t get even close enough to goal to misfire – and, guys, we did it; Portland has the worst goals-against number in the league - I expect very little from those five games. So...you’re hosting the Los Angeles Galaxy?

While I did sit through their 1-1 draw against the Vancouver Whitecaps last weekend, I held most of what I thought for this post – and on the grounds that game didn’t give me much to work with. They played a fairly even game, the ‘Caps looked smoother, the Galaxy more effective, LA forced a healthy number of saves out of Vancouver’s Yohei Takaoka, etc. On the one hand, the Galaxy got screwed out of a clear winner, Dejan Joveljic’s 77th-minute shoulda-been equalizer; on the other, the goal they did score came after a weird, chipped cross, a ‘keeper’s bobble, and a sort of ugly-cousin testament to the rule of always following up on the shot. Put it all together and you have a team that CAN create chances, if without much for replicability.

That last piece shows up in the numbers: LA has scored just two goals this season, so even had Joveljic’s goal counted, they’d still be on 1.0 goals/game. To give them their due, it looks a little better on the field. To note some things: they pushed Raheem Edwards pretty damn high and moved players around to isolate him – and he did all right with the crosses. I saw Tyler Boyd (a player I think I’m supposed to know, but...pfft) get loose now and again and it was...fine. I feel like they used Gaston Brugman and Mark Delgado as back-stops, with Brugman as they anchor, so they can leave Riqui Puig free to find the game. Reasonable as that sounds on paper, I didn’t see much from Puig in the windows I watched; I think he flailed some hopers, but the Galaxy got a lot more out of their wings. Call that something to think about, unlike the Galaxy’s defense, which looked good enough, especially with Martin Caceres (new kid?) adding a little bite.

So. That’s what Portland’s up against. Now, what do they have? I’m hoping Savarese sticks with a three-man backline because, due to the size of their front 3-4 (even absent Joveljic), LA will try to beat/scramble Portland with movement – i.e., the more clutter the better. The idea of the Timbers failing to get hold of the center of the field actually makes me more nervous – and mostly because I can see it happen. That said, I’d rather see Portland take some chances and try to win the midfield battle by putting the Galaxy as a whole on the back-foot. If that means keep Diego Chara low and gambling Eryk Williamson higher, I’m a yes on that, at least going in. Finally, yeah, I want to see Tega Ikoba start (I like Nathan Fogaca as a late sub) and Santiago Moreno get up there on either side.

There could have been a key match-up in this one, but I believe Juan David Mosquera went to senior skip, so we’ll have to wait to see how he handles Edwards. I wish I could say I feel positive. To loop back to the top, the best thing I can call this is Portland’s best shot at three points until the first week of May. Next!

Just tell me the song's stuck in your head.
Nashville SC v FC Cincinnati
I did not know that New England’s Gustavo Bou scored the first goal Nashville allowed in 2023 until after he scored it. That singular fact changed a couple things about how I’m seeing this game.

As noted in my review notes, I might have missed Nashville’s better moments last week (looks like they came in the first half), but most of that was Hany Muhktar getting loose and spooking the ‘keeper, aka, more of the same. Another known quantity stood tall as well: Walker “Wrecking Ball” Zimmermann, who, worst-kept secret in MLS, dominates set-pieces. That’s two big things to watch – and I’d call the former more under their control than the latter. Give Zimmermann a good ball and a little space means you’ll need to score two to get all three.

That said, I made a point of watching all of the second half last week to see how much Nashville looked like tying the game after going down a goal. The short answer: they did not. I saw a lot of miscommunication between teammates and passes that went nowhere, and for a truly disturbing variety of reasons. It made me feel better about the Timbers, honestly. And that brings up the other worst-kept secret about Nashville: they have talent – I’m looking at a bunch of players right now who aren’t bad, and that includes subs – but they don’t have talent, outside of Muhktar. I don’t know what to call it but a remarkable amount of competence. Don’t nap on those slightly-better-than-the-a-ver-age player, obviously, but also don’t let them distract you from the primary threats.

I know this burned me on my last set of notes (but who sees Chicago scoring three fucking goals?!), but I still see this as a situation where Cincinnati should put more thought into how to win as opposed to worrying about how not to lose – yeah, I know it’s a road game. I think Nashville’s attack remains incoherent enough that Cincy can focus on containing it and/or generally inviting it to get in its own way; in the same vein, they should avoid giving away free kicks in the attacking third. That plan doesn’t come without risks, but it still feels sound.

As for Cincinnati, my only real concern comes with having all three of Junior Moreno (ID), Marco Angulo (ID), and Yuya Kubo (bad knee) absent. Highly as I rate Obinna Nwobodo, that leaves him a lot of ground to cover and against two smart, ground-chewing players in the seemingly ageless Dax McCarty and Sean Davis. Fortunately, Cincy doesn’t have anyone else missing (right? don’t make me look this up), and that puts a strong defense/’keeper behind Nwobodo. As such, it’s still about figuring out how to go forward.

The only wish I have, and this assumes I’m up for it, I’d like to see Santiago Arias start. In his short time on the field last week, he served some of the best crosses I’ve seen from any fullback in MLS this season – I’m talking precise. More than anything else, and love the guy, but I don’t want to see Raymon Gaddis out there. I want Cincy to go for all three in this one, and on the grounds I believe they’re good for it...which brings me to my last point: the Revs won last week’s game over a 15-minute period at the start of the first half. After what I’m told was an indifferent first half, maybe even a shaky one, they played through – but mostly around – Nashville. Hence wanting to see Arias out there. If Luciano Acosta can start, so much the better – and don’t be shy about seeing what you can get out of Alvaro Barreal.

I get that this game is in Nashville, and that they have started quite strong this season – they beat both New York City FC and Club de Foot Montreal at home – but, again, don’t be shy about trying to win this game.

All right, on to the rest of them. Let’s see how many I can stuff into concocted categories...

Lives of the Increasingly Desperate
Both the Timbers and the Galaxy fit too comfortably under this sorry grouping, but here are the rest:

Philadelphia Union v Orlando City SC
Austin FC v Colorado Rapids
Sporting Kansas City v Seattle Sounders
DC United v New England Revolution

The teams referred to in the header include Orlando, Colorado, SKC and DC. For what it’s worth, I give DC the best chance of getting all three points – they’ve been feisty, even in futility – and that would make a New England win a little more impressive in my mind – especially if, as for the past two weeks, they play without Carles Gil. I’m not sure DC quite belongs among the desperate - i.e., team who run a real risk of heading into, say, Week 11 actually needing a winning streak to keep breathing – but it won’t take many losses like this one to kick them down to them.

Orlando probably feels even more like a square peg, but hear me out. They had expectations going into the season, for one, and you can blame only so many things on CCL burnout, and a borderline useless attack ain’t one of them. They’ve topped out at stubborn since and, as a result, have only managed two points of nine out of a relatively soft schedule over their past three games. Now, Philly has plenty of players that got ID’ed (Daniel Gazdag’s a big deal, same with Jose Martinez), but that would only matter if Orlando wasn’t in the same boat (e.g., no Facundo Torres and no Pedro Gallese). Again, were it not for expectations, but an Orlando loss here means they have to start getting serious about making them up.

The other two toss about in a different boat, one with more holes, tragically. I won’t believe the Rapids can beat anybody until they can do it, never mind on the road, but trust SKC – a team the attacking numbers love, apparently – to land a tough-as-nails defense like the Sounders right when they need a lift.

Blotting Out a Sunrise
Charlotte FC v Red Bull New York
Houston Dynamo FC v New York City FC

This group’s simpler: both Charlotte and Houston won last week; both Charlotte and Houston seem unlikely to win again. Worse, I’m not 100% sure I see either or both New York (or New-York-adjacent) team winning.

Still, if either Charlotte or Houston do win, adjust your reaction accordingly...

Your Mild Disappointments
Columbus Crew SC v Atlanta United FC
Minnesota United FC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
San Jose Earthquakes v Toronto FC

Consider this a graveyard for misfit toys. In some cases, MLS Week 5 feels like a blown opportunity to see where a couple of those teams can go – here, I’m mostly thinking of Atlanta and Minnesota. They’ve both started strong, they’re getting real results...and both have half their goddamn teams missing this weekend and vulnerable teams on the menu. A mess on the level of figuring out how good both teams really are – and that’s before getting into how depleted Columbus is between IDs and Cucho Hernandez limping around.

San Jose v Toronto, meanwhile, came within one thin hair of slipping into the category above. Toronto won its first game last weekend, after all, only they beat a battered Miami team missing its key player/commander (see below). The idea of seeing what that team could do against what I’d call, by general consensus, respected San Jose Team. I didn’t like their chances so much going in, and I like them even less knowing they’re going in with half of Canada missing (e.g., Mark-Anthony Kaye, Richie Laryea, and Jonathan Osorio). That makes this a game the ‘Quakes kinda, sorta need to win: I can’t imagine they won’t have to work harder for three points later if they piss these three away this week.

Next, a kind of twilight category...

Regular-Ass Games
Los Angeles FC v FC Dallas
Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire FC

All four of those teams have arrived at what I feel like will be close to their “normal” for 2023 – if tragically for Miami what with Gregore out of the picture. Playing Chicago at home would look a lot sunnier, if nothing else...even if 80% of observers would shrug in the event Miami does win this weekend, because Chicago. And, if Chicago wins, people will write it off. Kinda like I just did....

The same goes for LAFC and Dallas, even if they’re on a different level(s). I can’t see any result changing what people think about either team, while also expecting LAFC to win the game. Both teams project somewhere between “good” and “great,” so the assumption is they’ll both get enough points elsewhere, even if they don’t get them here. Last, but very much not least...

Dreaming BIG
Real Salt Lake v St. Louis CITY FC

Can they do it again? It’s that simple.

Better still, can RSL stop them? If not, that’s three straight losses for them and that makes me wonder if I shouldn’t have thrown them in with the Increasingly Desperate...

...nah, if there’s a story for the early weeks of 2023, it’s St. Louis and how far they can go. My money’s on them making their record start even harder to beat for the next expansion team. And RSL will be the next rung they stand on, or they won't.

Fuck me, that went on, didn’t it? That’s it, we’ll see how it pans out, etc. Till the next write-ups!

No comments:

Post a Comment