 |
| It's raining Mcmansions. |
First, holy shit, I can’t tell you how relieved I am to have numbers – REAL numbers, from xG to records to goal differential – to help shape this discussion. No more building houses on clouds, people, it’s gonna be glorious. If nothing else, I should help tighten up the copy, Ahhhhhhhhhhh-meeeennnnnnnnnnnn!!
At any rate, it’s the same old format – i.e., the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati get longer previews and then smoosh all the rest of it into categories that expand or contract per my personal requirements – only updated for another week. At first glance (and it is that), I see a little intrigue, some faint whiffs of desperation and, frankly, a couple games that I expect to slip from the memory of even the most ardent local fan by the end of Saturday night. I’ll get into all that, but let’s turn to my two personal main events. For what it’s worth, I decided which team to start with by flipping a coin...it’s getting weird out here...
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
Because we’ve had so little of it, here, in the upper left-hand corner of Oregon, allow me to start with the good news. I just caught word (typing this Tuesday freezing the thought in amber) that Evander, David Ayala and Dairon Asprilla participated in full training on (or perhaps starting) Tuesday, all in the hope of playing Saturday. What? I didn’t say how good the news was...
I kid, I kid. Even if Evander hasn’t set my cockles ablaze and I can’t say I’ve ever seen Ayala play a game that made me feel anything but anxious, I’m happy for the options. Seeing Asprilla in that mix feels better, if only because he’s more of a known quantity; he has arrived/plateaued at a solid second-banana level of contribution – which, sadly, was good enough to make him Portland’s leading scorer last season. Having more of a presence up top, or even just an attacking player able to do more than run(/get swallowed up) by the channel (never to be seen again), certainly can’t hurt an attack that currently clocks exactly one goal per game. Turning, now, to what whoever lines up for Portland will be up against...
First, and for anyone who has ever questioned my reasons for asking the Form Guide to join me in holy matrimony, I’d started mapping out an argument for how “this Portland team could never score on Dallas, a team back-stopped by a steel-plated Alamo.” As it turns out, they’ve allowed a goal in every game of 2023. Not crazy enough that Portland fans should get their hopes up – they’ve allowed six total - but the goals get in their net, even at home.
I’ve watched chunks of Dallas games – about 30-35 minutes of game time in each, broken into bits (most of them around the goals scored) – twice this season, both against the LA teams. As such, I’ve seen them in two different modes...neither of them perfect analogies, sadly, to how I think things will look when Dallas plays Portland. That said, the 3-1 win over the Galaxy gave me some idea of what not to do – i.e., try to take the game to them when you don’t have the game to back it up (dear Giovanni Savarese, I'm writing to you today to express my concerns...). And yet, the flip-side to that thought gets to what makes doing that such a bad idea: Dallas has looked very comfortable on the ball every time I’ve watched them – precise angles, nice crisp passes, just really effective about playing out of the back and into the midfield. LAFC got them in the end, but it took work, devil's in the details (some notes here), etc. As for what happens from there...
For starters, Dallas doesn’t really have a “big-man” threat...I’m mostly just trying to figure out how I feel about that. From what I gather, the team they started against SKC looks closer to their preferred – and it’s good – but most of what I’ve seen at the tippy-top runs through three players: Jesus Ferreira, Paul Arriola, and Alan Velasco. Dallas fields a small-man attack, basically, and that means tracking movement (or crowding it into oblivion) and keeping tabs on late runs. Is the current Timbers defensive combination of personnel and placement up for that? Shit, I hope so, but...probably not, especially when they’ve got to figure out how to manage Ferreira’s ability to open up a fresh angle for a shot with just a touch or two.
At any rate, it’s the same old format – i.e., the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati get longer previews and then smoosh all the rest of it into categories that expand or contract per my personal requirements – only updated for another week. At first glance (and it is that), I see a little intrigue, some faint whiffs of desperation and, frankly, a couple games that I expect to slip from the memory of even the most ardent local fan by the end of Saturday night. I’ll get into all that, but let’s turn to my two personal main events. For what it’s worth, I decided which team to start with by flipping a coin...it’s getting weird out here...
FC Dallas v Portland Timbers
Because we’ve had so little of it, here, in the upper left-hand corner of Oregon, allow me to start with the good news. I just caught word (typing this Tuesday freezing the thought in amber) that Evander, David Ayala and Dairon Asprilla participated in full training on (or perhaps starting) Tuesday, all in the hope of playing Saturday. What? I didn’t say how good the news was...
I kid, I kid. Even if Evander hasn’t set my cockles ablaze and I can’t say I’ve ever seen Ayala play a game that made me feel anything but anxious, I’m happy for the options. Seeing Asprilla in that mix feels better, if only because he’s more of a known quantity; he has arrived/plateaued at a solid second-banana level of contribution – which, sadly, was good enough to make him Portland’s leading scorer last season. Having more of a presence up top, or even just an attacking player able to do more than run(/get swallowed up) by the channel (never to be seen again), certainly can’t hurt an attack that currently clocks exactly one goal per game. Turning, now, to what whoever lines up for Portland will be up against...
First, and for anyone who has ever questioned my reasons for asking the Form Guide to join me in holy matrimony, I’d started mapping out an argument for how “this Portland team could never score on Dallas, a team back-stopped by a steel-plated Alamo.” As it turns out, they’ve allowed a goal in every game of 2023. Not crazy enough that Portland fans should get their hopes up – they’ve allowed six total - but the goals get in their net, even at home.
I’ve watched chunks of Dallas games – about 30-35 minutes of game time in each, broken into bits (most of them around the goals scored) – twice this season, both against the LA teams. As such, I’ve seen them in two different modes...neither of them perfect analogies, sadly, to how I think things will look when Dallas plays Portland. That said, the 3-1 win over the Galaxy gave me some idea of what not to do – i.e., try to take the game to them when you don’t have the game to back it up (dear Giovanni Savarese, I'm writing to you today to express my concerns...). And yet, the flip-side to that thought gets to what makes doing that such a bad idea: Dallas has looked very comfortable on the ball every time I’ve watched them – precise angles, nice crisp passes, just really effective about playing out of the back and into the midfield. LAFC got them in the end, but it took work, devil's in the details (some notes here), etc. As for what happens from there...
For starters, Dallas doesn’t really have a “big-man” threat...I’m mostly just trying to figure out how I feel about that. From what I gather, the team they started against SKC looks closer to their preferred – and it’s good – but most of what I’ve seen at the tippy-top runs through three players: Jesus Ferreira, Paul Arriola, and Alan Velasco. Dallas fields a small-man attack, basically, and that means tracking movement (or crowding it into oblivion) and keeping tabs on late runs. Is the current Timbers defensive combination of personnel and placement up for that? Shit, I hope so, but...probably not, especially when they’ve got to figure out how to manage Ferreira’s ability to open up a fresh angle for a shot with just a touch or two.
 |
| Future me, pre-shave. |
All in all, I’ll be stunned if Portland gets a point out of this one – part of me even hopes they play for one, if only for the practice – but if they get all three, I’m quitting my job, throwing in on Powerball, and shaving the left side of my body, all on the same day. If there’s a positive, I don’t think Dallas commits to using its fullbacks quite like other teams and maybe that opens up something for Portland through Claudio Bravo and Juan David Mosquera...who, for the record, appears poised to go up against Marco Farfan...and Farfan looked fantastic against LAFC.
Right, on to the next one...
FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF
After a hot start – at home, notably – Miami has lost three straight. The first two of those losses came on the road – at NYC and Toronto – and, if I’m not mistaken, after the team lost midfield anchor and team captain, Gregore. I skipped Miami v Chicago on the first pass, but kinda grateful them playing Cincinnati in Week 6 forced me to circle back for a peak at the post-Gregore era.
About Gregore, over Miami’s first two games of the season – home wins over Montreal and Philly, both 2-0 – he and Jean Mota strung a fairly effective trap across the middle of the field, one that caught moves coming out of the back at...let’s call it a bear catching salmon in a nature documentary clip – i.e., not fast, but effective and they made it look easy. Victor Ulloa (say hi, Cincy fans!) isn’t Gregore, of course. He’s not terrible either, at least not in the right set up, and I expect Miami to line up against Cincy the same way they lined up against Chicago. And making Ulloa and Mota more or less dedicated to holding the middle and letting the front four of Corentin Jean, Rodolfo Pizzaro, Bryce Duke, and Nicolas Stefanelli run loose makes a decent amount of sense. So, unless you’ve heard something about Leo Campana coming back or Lionel Messi yanking the cord with a loud, “fuck it, I’m going to Miami,” yeah, I think that’ll be the set up.
Something I do expect to change is between last week and this, Miami had a lot of the ball against Chicago, but, can confirm, that is not their regular M.O. That takes a bad angle against my personal eye-test because, when I recall it through my mind’s eye, I see a lot of passes and a lot of movement. That’s less about me doubting the accountants than an oblique statement about Miami’s style of play: they can get really smooth on the ball when they get rolling. When it comes to the Chicago game, if you want to see them at their best, I’d steer you to minutes 35-45+ - i.e. very lively, great patterns, players knowing where to go, other players finding those passes, etc. It all looked overelaborate until Franco Negri sliced home Miami’s opener.
The point of all that boils down to the argument that Miami is capable; it should go without saying that the chief question is how much vis-a-vis Cincinnati. Confident as I am about where Cincy is right now, I don’t expect to see Miami move the ball through them the way they did against Chicago – or, if they do, I also expect Cincy to punish any mistake Miami makes with a ruthlessness that longtime Fire fans only remember as the stuff of legends.
Right, on to the next one...
FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF
After a hot start – at home, notably – Miami has lost three straight. The first two of those losses came on the road – at NYC and Toronto – and, if I’m not mistaken, after the team lost midfield anchor and team captain, Gregore. I skipped Miami v Chicago on the first pass, but kinda grateful them playing Cincinnati in Week 6 forced me to circle back for a peak at the post-Gregore era.
About Gregore, over Miami’s first two games of the season – home wins over Montreal and Philly, both 2-0 – he and Jean Mota strung a fairly effective trap across the middle of the field, one that caught moves coming out of the back at...let’s call it a bear catching salmon in a nature documentary clip – i.e., not fast, but effective and they made it look easy. Victor Ulloa (say hi, Cincy fans!) isn’t Gregore, of course. He’s not terrible either, at least not in the right set up, and I expect Miami to line up against Cincy the same way they lined up against Chicago. And making Ulloa and Mota more or less dedicated to holding the middle and letting the front four of Corentin Jean, Rodolfo Pizzaro, Bryce Duke, and Nicolas Stefanelli run loose makes a decent amount of sense. So, unless you’ve heard something about Leo Campana coming back or Lionel Messi yanking the cord with a loud, “fuck it, I’m going to Miami,” yeah, I think that’ll be the set up.
Something I do expect to change is between last week and this, Miami had a lot of the ball against Chicago, but, can confirm, that is not their regular M.O. That takes a bad angle against my personal eye-test because, when I recall it through my mind’s eye, I see a lot of passes and a lot of movement. That’s less about me doubting the accountants than an oblique statement about Miami’s style of play: they can get really smooth on the ball when they get rolling. When it comes to the Chicago game, if you want to see them at their best, I’d steer you to minutes 35-45+ - i.e. very lively, great patterns, players knowing where to go, other players finding those passes, etc. It all looked overelaborate until Franco Negri sliced home Miami’s opener.
The point of all that boils down to the argument that Miami is capable; it should go without saying that the chief question is how much vis-a-vis Cincinnati. Confident as I am about where Cincy is right now, I don’t expect to see Miami move the ball through them the way they did against Chicago – or, if they do, I also expect Cincy to punish any mistake Miami makes with a ruthlessness that longtime Fire fans only remember as the stuff of legends.
 |
| Really exists. Not Irish-themed. |
I don’t expect Miami to give Cincy an easy game. That said, I do count this as a must-win, mostly in the sense that good teams should pocket all three against hobbled opponents at home. And fluffing the padding between them and the fall can’t hurt either. To close on some points of interest, Alvaro Barreal v Deandre Yedlin should be barrel-o’-monkeys fun (an Irish-theme bar, coming to a strip mall near you) and I suspect Luciano Acosta will find good pockets in that shape – my guess is Yedlin’s in for a day – and that should be enough. If Cincy can score two, I think they get this one.
Now, let’s see what I can do with the rest of these...okay...okay...okay. I think I’ve got my buckets. Here goes...and this is in descending order. Think of it as making small-talk about things you don’t really want with a waiter so you can buy time to think.
Games to Miss
Toronto FC v Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire FC v DC United
Vancouver Whitecaps v Club de Foot Montreal
This is less a judgment on those teams – though, obviously, none of them are doing well, hence the top of a descending order – but that I can’t imagine a result in any of those games that will change anyone’s overall opinion about any of them.
Expected Bloodletting
Los Angeles Galaxy v Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union v Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
[Ed. - I put FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF with these, with Miami at the wrong end.]
Don’t pretend. You have a firm opinion as to which team you think will win each of those games. More to the point, and with the exception of Philly, your opinion about all six teams wouldn’t really change no matter the result. Also, if the Union loses this one...
Impostor Syndrome
Atlanta United FC v Red Bull New York
Columbus Crew SC v Real Salt Lake
To the extent anything matters this early in a season with a big ol' backyard (i.e., less than said backyard), both of these games has some potential to either reveal or disguise a narrative about the home team. In the first, Atlanta gets its first team back and a chance to prove last week’s beatdown at Columbus happened to a totally different team. The fact they’re hosting, combined with the way the Red Bulls have wavered between baffling and bad so far in 2023, means anything less than a win getting a clean shot at Atlanta’s shins and the “they’re back” narrative.
Meanwhile, Columbus looked like it’d gotten off to a spongey start to 2023, but that blowout win over Atlanta makes it all look a little different. If nothing else, they’re perfect at home – both losses and the one draw came on the road – and they host an RSL team that lets teams play through them like wet tissue. Should Columbus win on Saturday – and everything I’ve seen makes me think they will – I expect chatter about the Wilfried Nancy turn-around to get a little louder. That’s no biggie and it could prove justified, but this is a should-win for Columbus. Bank ‘em early, so you don’t have to sweat it late, people.
Just to note it, I’d put Dallas v Portland in this group, and mostly on the ground that Dallas seems to walk a thin line when it comes to the esteem of most fans – i.e., they seem to have to make more noise than most for people to pay them any mind. In that context, I’d call a healing Portland team in Dallas a should-win for them.
Shit’s Getting Real
New England Revolution v New York City FC
Orlando City SC v Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo FC
St. Louis CITY FC v Minnesota United FC
All of these are just fun in their own way – i.e. (and it’s a long one), Eastern Conference kings versus a (once-)rising NYC team (but when will they rise?); an Orlando team riding a big(ish) win (because Philly) to a chance at getting among the early leaders against a Nashville team desperate (and yet unlikely) to stay within touch of them (my money’s against); two of the longest-struggling teams in the Western Conference with a shot at pushing their way back into the conversation (and a Houston upset wouldn’t surprise me); and, of course, there’s St. Louis still chasing history, but with MLS’s equivalent of an energy vampire (i.e., Minnesota) in the way – and all I have to say about that is that being able to pull narrative threads from those games this early in the season feels good.
We’ll see what it kicks up by Sunday. Or coughs up. Some seasons – 2022, for one – wind up with half the league stalling for weeks in this pointless, never-ending demolition derby in the middle of both conferences. Here’s to hoping we get a little more separation between the haves and the, please, stop tryings.
Now, let’s see what I can do with the rest of these...okay...okay...okay. I think I’ve got my buckets. Here goes...and this is in descending order. Think of it as making small-talk about things you don’t really want with a waiter so you can buy time to think.
Games to Miss
Toronto FC v Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire FC v DC United
Vancouver Whitecaps v Club de Foot Montreal
This is less a judgment on those teams – though, obviously, none of them are doing well, hence the top of a descending order – but that I can’t imagine a result in any of those games that will change anyone’s overall opinion about any of them.
Expected Bloodletting
Los Angeles Galaxy v Seattle Sounders
Philadelphia Union v Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids v Los Angeles FC
[Ed. - I put FC Cincinnati v Inter Miami CF with these, with Miami at the wrong end.]
Don’t pretend. You have a firm opinion as to which team you think will win each of those games. More to the point, and with the exception of Philly, your opinion about all six teams wouldn’t really change no matter the result. Also, if the Union loses this one...
Impostor Syndrome
Atlanta United FC v Red Bull New York
Columbus Crew SC v Real Salt Lake
To the extent anything matters this early in a season with a big ol' backyard (i.e., less than said backyard), both of these games has some potential to either reveal or disguise a narrative about the home team. In the first, Atlanta gets its first team back and a chance to prove last week’s beatdown at Columbus happened to a totally different team. The fact they’re hosting, combined with the way the Red Bulls have wavered between baffling and bad so far in 2023, means anything less than a win getting a clean shot at Atlanta’s shins and the “they’re back” narrative.
Meanwhile, Columbus looked like it’d gotten off to a spongey start to 2023, but that blowout win over Atlanta makes it all look a little different. If nothing else, they’re perfect at home – both losses and the one draw came on the road – and they host an RSL team that lets teams play through them like wet tissue. Should Columbus win on Saturday – and everything I’ve seen makes me think they will – I expect chatter about the Wilfried Nancy turn-around to get a little louder. That’s no biggie and it could prove justified, but this is a should-win for Columbus. Bank ‘em early, so you don’t have to sweat it late, people.
Just to note it, I’d put Dallas v Portland in this group, and mostly on the ground that Dallas seems to walk a thin line when it comes to the esteem of most fans – i.e., they seem to have to make more noise than most for people to pay them any mind. In that context, I’d call a healing Portland team in Dallas a should-win for them.
Shit’s Getting Real
New England Revolution v New York City FC
Orlando City SC v Nashville SC
San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo FC
St. Louis CITY FC v Minnesota United FC
All of these are just fun in their own way – i.e. (and it’s a long one), Eastern Conference kings versus a (once-)rising NYC team (but when will they rise?); an Orlando team riding a big(ish) win (because Philly) to a chance at getting among the early leaders against a Nashville team desperate (and yet unlikely) to stay within touch of them (my money’s against); two of the longest-struggling teams in the Western Conference with a shot at pushing their way back into the conversation (and a Houston upset wouldn’t surprise me); and, of course, there’s St. Louis still chasing history, but with MLS’s equivalent of an energy vampire (i.e., Minnesota) in the way – and all I have to say about that is that being able to pull narrative threads from those games this early in the season feels good.
We’ll see what it kicks up by Sunday. Or coughs up. Some seasons – 2022, for one – wind up with half the league stalling for weeks in this pointless, never-ending demolition derby in the middle of both conferences. Here’s to hoping we get a little more separation between the haves and the, please, stop tryings.
No comments:
Post a Comment