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| My money's on Pennsylvania... |
Seems like it was only yesterday since I wrapped up MLS Week 2, and yet here comes MLS Week 3, barreling toward the 2023 post-season with the speed and urgency of a Greyhound milk-run puttering from Maine to Cincinnati, Ohio (which I do not recommend, btw). A couple early narratives have taken shape – and I’ve laced those into the notes on Week 3’s games below – but, as we all know, there’s plenty of road ahead and they added a new wing to Cincinnati’s bus station. [NOTE: This is not accurate, please do not rely upon. So far as I know, Cincy built its Greyhound station in the 1950s and promptly forgot it existed.] In case it's not clear, all the above is a tortured analogy for the long regular season and expanded playoffs...
I cobbled together the observations below based on what I saw last weekend (my notes on that), some glassy-eyed staring at the soon-to-be invaluable Form Guide, and some stray stuff I’ve picked up, mostly from half-reading Sam Jones’ Daily Kickoff newsletter...whoa, just realized I haven’t so much as glanced at a Matt Doyle column since First Kick...
To be clear, I don’t really do predictions. It’s more kicking around expectations and pulling for results that amuse, baffle and, on the best of days, titillate. Anyhoo, there’s plenty below, so I’ll shut up and get to it. Starting with the two teams followed in this space, and in the order they’ll play on Saturday.
FC Cincinnati v Seattle Sounders
If someone told me to kick a dent into Seattle’s reputation, I’d try the three following arguments:
1) They’ve played both games at home.
2) One of the teams they hosted, the Colorado Rapids, has a history of being their punching bag (18-7-2 all-time) and Colorado’s Lalas Abubakar played part in two of those four goals. [Ed. - Fun fact: the Sounders actually have a losing historical record against Real Salt Lake at 11-12-5.]
3) Neither Colorado nor RSL has what FC Cincinnati has in the attack...when it’s rolling.
A lot of that boils down to another way of asking, how optimistic do you feel about Cincinnati in 2023?
Some personal notes: Cincy’s attack hasn’t hit the free-flowing heights of 2022, but I thought it looked better in Week 2 than it did in Week 1 - something I find encouraging on the grounds that Orlando City SC's defense already looks stouter than Houston Dynamo FC's. If anything makes me nervous, it’s what I saw in the midfield and the defense against Houston - i.e., regular and good-sized seams opened right up the middle and more than once. And that brings me to this thought from my Week 2 Review:
“I saw some clips of a smooth Seattle move floating around today and my only addition is, yes, but times six – which, here, actually does mean frequency – because they put together back-to-front flayings of RSL at least that many times. Don’t write RSL off or anything, but Seattle played at an entirely different level any time they got things going.”
When you look at the Sounders’ goals across the past two games (Thing 1 and Thing 2), a handful of things stand out:
I cobbled together the observations below based on what I saw last weekend (my notes on that), some glassy-eyed staring at the soon-to-be invaluable Form Guide, and some stray stuff I’ve picked up, mostly from half-reading Sam Jones’ Daily Kickoff newsletter...whoa, just realized I haven’t so much as glanced at a Matt Doyle column since First Kick...
To be clear, I don’t really do predictions. It’s more kicking around expectations and pulling for results that amuse, baffle and, on the best of days, titillate. Anyhoo, there’s plenty below, so I’ll shut up and get to it. Starting with the two teams followed in this space, and in the order they’ll play on Saturday.
FC Cincinnati v Seattle Sounders
If someone told me to kick a dent into Seattle’s reputation, I’d try the three following arguments:
1) They’ve played both games at home.
2) One of the teams they hosted, the Colorado Rapids, has a history of being their punching bag (18-7-2 all-time) and Colorado’s Lalas Abubakar played part in two of those four goals. [Ed. - Fun fact: the Sounders actually have a losing historical record against Real Salt Lake at 11-12-5.]
3) Neither Colorado nor RSL has what FC Cincinnati has in the attack...when it’s rolling.
A lot of that boils down to another way of asking, how optimistic do you feel about Cincinnati in 2023?
Some personal notes: Cincy’s attack hasn’t hit the free-flowing heights of 2022, but I thought it looked better in Week 2 than it did in Week 1 - something I find encouraging on the grounds that Orlando City SC's defense already looks stouter than Houston Dynamo FC's. If anything makes me nervous, it’s what I saw in the midfield and the defense against Houston - i.e., regular and good-sized seams opened right up the middle and more than once. And that brings me to this thought from my Week 2 Review:
“I saw some clips of a smooth Seattle move floating around today and my only addition is, yes, but times six – which, here, actually does mean frequency – because they put together back-to-front flayings of RSL at least that many times. Don’t write RSL off or anything, but Seattle played at an entirely different level any time they got things going.”
When you look at the Sounders’ goals across the past two games (Thing 1 and Thing 2), a handful of things stand out:
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| BRO!. I hear snow falls up on this motherfucker. |
1) Most look like they scored them after turnovers in the highlights, but, if you saw the Sounders break out the back against RSL, you’ll know they played those out of the back, it’s just a matter of getting vertical real goddamn fast.
2) They routinely get four to five players either in or on the edges of the opposition 18 at the end of those attacks – early crosses are the main exception I see – something I think has a lot to do with how quickly they get forward; they go all-in when they go, basically.
3) I discounted Heber coming into the season, but he is thriving as something a lot like a pure center forward. New York City FC asked him to do more and different things, and he was good in that role (at least until he wasn’t), but he is getting on the end of all kinds of things in 2023.
I feel like I should say something about Seattle's defense, but I can’t say I’ve seen it outside of a place where the ball goes sometimes. In a lot fewer words, Cincinnati will have to go against something like nothing it has all season. If I outlined a game-plan for Pat Noonan, I’d tell him to do everything he can to go to toe-to-toe with Seattle. Even if it means going down as many as two goals, I’d tell him to gamble on having Cincy play the way he wants them to in this one, points be damned – not least because there are points to burn. We’ll see what happens.
Now for the other home team. This one will be shorter because it’s lot less complicated.
Portland Timbers v St. Louis CITY FC
First – and I can’t stress this enough – do not pass the ball directly to a St. Louis player who is between the last defender and the ‘keeper. That’s 101, but you gotta get through the bonehead courses before you move to the tricky stuff – e.g., defending set-pieces...which also have a fair chance of being a problem.
Between simple curiosity in MLS Week 1 and knowing they had Portland next in MLS Week 2, I might have watched seen more of St. Louis than any team besides Portland and Cincy. And they aren’t bad. They’ve benefitted from a half season’s worth of gifted mistakes, sure, but I’ve also seen them move the ball with confidence and connectivity, Eduard Lowen distributes well and without a lot of fuss (very much including on set-pieces) and Joao Klauss plays pretty goddamn well for a man who forever looks on the edge of falling down (seriously, you want to follow him around like a toddler waiting to catch him). The defense is solid and stocked with familiar faces from around MLS – e.g., Tim Parker (was it Austin last season?), Jake Nerwinski (I’ve got this one...Vancouver), and John Nelson, a quality, half-bubble left back formerly of FC Cincy - and yet, I’m less concerned about what that defense will do than I am by what happens before Portland reaches it.
My biggest concern is with how much St. Louis presses. It’s possible they disrupted Austin better than they did Charlotte FC (who they played in Week 2), but they do fight all over the field – something they do by throwing their weight around, with a couple kicks thrown in for funsies. That approach against how loose the Timbers have been on the ball this season...hold on, I’m counting all the ways this can go wrong...
2) They routinely get four to five players either in or on the edges of the opposition 18 at the end of those attacks – early crosses are the main exception I see – something I think has a lot to do with how quickly they get forward; they go all-in when they go, basically.
3) I discounted Heber coming into the season, but he is thriving as something a lot like a pure center forward. New York City FC asked him to do more and different things, and he was good in that role (at least until he wasn’t), but he is getting on the end of all kinds of things in 2023.
I feel like I should say something about Seattle's defense, but I can’t say I’ve seen it outside of a place where the ball goes sometimes. In a lot fewer words, Cincinnati will have to go against something like nothing it has all season. If I outlined a game-plan for Pat Noonan, I’d tell him to do everything he can to go to toe-to-toe with Seattle. Even if it means going down as many as two goals, I’d tell him to gamble on having Cincy play the way he wants them to in this one, points be damned – not least because there are points to burn. We’ll see what happens.
Now for the other home team. This one will be shorter because it’s lot less complicated.
Portland Timbers v St. Louis CITY FC
First – and I can’t stress this enough – do not pass the ball directly to a St. Louis player who is between the last defender and the ‘keeper. That’s 101, but you gotta get through the bonehead courses before you move to the tricky stuff – e.g., defending set-pieces...which also have a fair chance of being a problem.
Between simple curiosity in MLS Week 1 and knowing they had Portland next in MLS Week 2, I might have watched seen more of St. Louis than any team besides Portland and Cincy. And they aren’t bad. They’ve benefitted from a half season’s worth of gifted mistakes, sure, but I’ve also seen them move the ball with confidence and connectivity, Eduard Lowen distributes well and without a lot of fuss (very much including on set-pieces) and Joao Klauss plays pretty goddamn well for a man who forever looks on the edge of falling down (seriously, you want to follow him around like a toddler waiting to catch him). The defense is solid and stocked with familiar faces from around MLS – e.g., Tim Parker (was it Austin last season?), Jake Nerwinski (I’ve got this one...Vancouver), and John Nelson, a quality, half-bubble left back formerly of FC Cincy - and yet, I’m less concerned about what that defense will do than I am by what happens before Portland reaches it.
My biggest concern is with how much St. Louis presses. It’s possible they disrupted Austin better than they did Charlotte FC (who they played in Week 2), but they do fight all over the field – something they do by throwing their weight around, with a couple kicks thrown in for funsies. That approach against how loose the Timbers have been on the ball this season...hold on, I’m counting all the ways this can go wrong...
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| The general precarity of the situation... |
With all that in mind, my big tactical directive for Portland is bonehead obvious: play as if any mistake could kill you. After that, it’s how does a team either neutralize a press (playing the ball forward, then backwards a lot?) or beat it (remember how easy that used to be...sigh...)? I’d call all starting players keeping their heads and their bodies the next step and that takes care of the basics.
The hard reality is that Portland doesn’t have all hands available. Hell, I’m not even sure Gio knows his best XI given the sum of circumstances. As much as I hate to admit it, I don’t think Portland has the personnel right now to “take the game” to St. Louis, or anyone else, really. For all that, I do believe the visitors are playing about three goals above their heads right now, so I say the Timbers focus on not fucking up first, then figure out how to win from there. Oh, and start in something like a 3-5-2. Sorting out that math makes a lot more sense than giving Marvin Loria another start, no matter how fucked up the word problem looks at time of writing...
That’s this site’s Marquee Match-Ups out of the way. Time to check in on the rest – and I’ve divided these into...hold on...
The Good Stuff, aka, The Meaningful What Ifs?
Los Angeles FC v New England Revolution
The Revs are at risk of having a very good start and how far LAFC fell off after over the last 30 minutes against Portland opens a crack into a parallel universe in which that seems possible. Personally, I’d like to see whether New England has its midfield sorted out, so the least interesting thing would be an LAFC win – especially by two goals or more.
Vancouver Whitecaps v FC Dallas
This one’s pretty straightforward: one more Vancouver loss and they’ve already got a lot of ground to make up and without the riding lawnmower for the job (Jesus, that’s awful; I’ll show myself out); one more win for Dallas – particularly a win on the road (and against a vulnerable team) – and it starts making sense to think about who else makes the playoffs in the West. Seriously, until that defense falls apart...
Nashville SC v Club de Foot Montreal
I expect this to be dull as shit, but Montreal losing again would be funny enough that I’d like to see it. And I say this with absolutely zero malice toward Montreal. Look...I want the East to be wild this season and you can’t get there without clearing some room.
Eh (Which, Here, Means, Fuck It, Let’s See What Happens...)
New York City FC v Inter Miami CF
Miami is on a roll, taking out two once and former Eastern Conference powers, while NYC has yet to get started. Miami is also on the road. Impress me, you beautiful fucking flamingos...
Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire FC
Related, the Union’s path to its reported coronation took a ding last weekend (see above), and the Fire appears to step into the path of its wrecking-ball of vengeance like a small, unwitting baby bird...which obviously means I think the Fire beating (a quite possibly tired) Philadelphia would be comedy gold.
Minnesota United FC v Red Bull New York
The one and only thing I’m watching for here is a Minnesota win - who, just to note it, already have one impressive win in 2023, and without Emmanuel Reynoso suited up. The Red Bulls may or may not get going early this season, and I'll start doubting them at some point (I have to, right?), but away to Minnesota in early March doesn't look great, not based on the reports I’ve read and snippets I’ve seen.
Real Salt Lake v Austin FC
Austin has suffered two painful blows to start their 2023 season – first Kip Keller, then Violette AC (fun side-note: “But this Violette team barely even exists right now. Haiti’s domestic league hasn’t played a full season since 2018. It’s a near miracle they made it to CCL.”). RSL, meanwhile, has looked good in both (of most) games I’ve seen them play and they’re back at home. So, call this one a solid, early six-pointer. And Austin will feel a loss a helluva lot more than RSL...which is not to say latter will enjoy it...
Toronto FC v Columbus Crew SC
Exactly one week after Lucas Zelarayan lifted the Crew out of the gutter the Union pummeled them into, they travel to the home of their hard-luck Trillium Cup opponents (is that still a thing? hey, it is!), Toronto. This will be the Canadian’s first home game, i.e., a good chance to get going and to kick Columbus back into that gutter.
The Dregs, aka, No, I Do Not Feel the Excitement
Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC
I’m mostly curious to see what the hosts can do with this one. As noted in the review, they looked all right...I mean, outside the two glaring mistakes, of course, so my interest level around Atlanta will tick up, and perhaps a fair ways, if they get out of Charlotte with the win. This game’s down here because I don’t think they will...
San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
Expecting this to amount to San Jose sacrificing the Rapids on the altar of their rebuilt reputation. Also, I’m not sure how much a Rapids win would change anything for me.
DC United v Orlando City SC
Will Orlando finally score from the run of play? Will they crack the elusive 10-shot barrier? Probably not, given the heavy legs, which leaves the door open a crack for DC to make some noise. For what it’s worth, I’ll start keeping tabs on DC if they can crack 7 points over their first five games.
Sporting Kansas City v Los Angeles Galaxy
Yeah, just can't bring myself to care about this one. No real heat coming off either team, so don’t think I’ll care one way or the other about if either of them win and I’m expecting a goal-less draw.
That's it for this one. Hope the stand-alone reviews and previews have worked better for anyone who finds them...just have to figure out how to fit the damn things in now...
The hard reality is that Portland doesn’t have all hands available. Hell, I’m not even sure Gio knows his best XI given the sum of circumstances. As much as I hate to admit it, I don’t think Portland has the personnel right now to “take the game” to St. Louis, or anyone else, really. For all that, I do believe the visitors are playing about three goals above their heads right now, so I say the Timbers focus on not fucking up first, then figure out how to win from there. Oh, and start in something like a 3-5-2. Sorting out that math makes a lot more sense than giving Marvin Loria another start, no matter how fucked up the word problem looks at time of writing...
That’s this site’s Marquee Match-Ups out of the way. Time to check in on the rest – and I’ve divided these into...hold on...
The Good Stuff, aka, The Meaningful What Ifs?
Los Angeles FC v New England Revolution
The Revs are at risk of having a very good start and how far LAFC fell off after over the last 30 minutes against Portland opens a crack into a parallel universe in which that seems possible. Personally, I’d like to see whether New England has its midfield sorted out, so the least interesting thing would be an LAFC win – especially by two goals or more.
Vancouver Whitecaps v FC Dallas
This one’s pretty straightforward: one more Vancouver loss and they’ve already got a lot of ground to make up and without the riding lawnmower for the job (Jesus, that’s awful; I’ll show myself out); one more win for Dallas – particularly a win on the road (and against a vulnerable team) – and it starts making sense to think about who else makes the playoffs in the West. Seriously, until that defense falls apart...
Nashville SC v Club de Foot Montreal
I expect this to be dull as shit, but Montreal losing again would be funny enough that I’d like to see it. And I say this with absolutely zero malice toward Montreal. Look...I want the East to be wild this season and you can’t get there without clearing some room.
Eh (Which, Here, Means, Fuck It, Let’s See What Happens...)
New York City FC v Inter Miami CF
Miami is on a roll, taking out two once and former Eastern Conference powers, while NYC has yet to get started. Miami is also on the road. Impress me, you beautiful fucking flamingos...
Philadelphia Union v Chicago Fire FC
Related, the Union’s path to its reported coronation took a ding last weekend (see above), and the Fire appears to step into the path of its wrecking-ball of vengeance like a small, unwitting baby bird...which obviously means I think the Fire beating (a quite possibly tired) Philadelphia would be comedy gold.
Minnesota United FC v Red Bull New York
The one and only thing I’m watching for here is a Minnesota win - who, just to note it, already have one impressive win in 2023, and without Emmanuel Reynoso suited up. The Red Bulls may or may not get going early this season, and I'll start doubting them at some point (I have to, right?), but away to Minnesota in early March doesn't look great, not based on the reports I’ve read and snippets I’ve seen.
Real Salt Lake v Austin FC
Austin has suffered two painful blows to start their 2023 season – first Kip Keller, then Violette AC (fun side-note: “But this Violette team barely even exists right now. Haiti’s domestic league hasn’t played a full season since 2018. It’s a near miracle they made it to CCL.”). RSL, meanwhile, has looked good in both (of most) games I’ve seen them play and they’re back at home. So, call this one a solid, early six-pointer. And Austin will feel a loss a helluva lot more than RSL...which is not to say latter will enjoy it...
Toronto FC v Columbus Crew SC
Exactly one week after Lucas Zelarayan lifted the Crew out of the gutter the Union pummeled them into, they travel to the home of their hard-luck Trillium Cup opponents (is that still a thing? hey, it is!), Toronto. This will be the Canadian’s first home game, i.e., a good chance to get going and to kick Columbus back into that gutter.
The Dregs, aka, No, I Do Not Feel the Excitement
Charlotte FC v Atlanta United FC
I’m mostly curious to see what the hosts can do with this one. As noted in the review, they looked all right...I mean, outside the two glaring mistakes, of course, so my interest level around Atlanta will tick up, and perhaps a fair ways, if they get out of Charlotte with the win. This game’s down here because I don’t think they will...
San Jose Earthquakes v Colorado Rapids
Expecting this to amount to San Jose sacrificing the Rapids on the altar of their rebuilt reputation. Also, I’m not sure how much a Rapids win would change anything for me.
DC United v Orlando City SC
Will Orlando finally score from the run of play? Will they crack the elusive 10-shot barrier? Probably not, given the heavy legs, which leaves the door open a crack for DC to make some noise. For what it’s worth, I’ll start keeping tabs on DC if they can crack 7 points over their first five games.
Sporting Kansas City v Los Angeles Galaxy
Yeah, just can't bring myself to care about this one. No real heat coming off either team, so don’t think I’ll care one way or the other about if either of them win and I’m expecting a goal-less draw.
That's it for this one. Hope the stand-alone reviews and previews have worked better for anyone who finds them...just have to figure out how to fit the damn things in now...
Jeff, a thorough rundown of the upcoming weekend! Fingers crossed for the green and gold.
ReplyDeleteAs you tick off the match ups, my mind wanders to our near-term fate - a 32 team league - with the franchise sellers at MLS thinking already of a multi-level marketing goal of 36 teams.
Expect to someday preview the "__ team who we last played just six years ago." Since no MLS owner will willingly accept pro/rel, will we end up with two 24-team conferences to extract the franchise fee from every billionaire bro around who wants to be a team owner?