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| Stupid, and yet in touch with the universe. |
Whether by a level of planning I never thought them capable of, simple match-fixing, or an act of God, the results from MLS Week 3 teed up more good, intrigue-laced games than duds for MLS Week 4. Some teams need to get out of the hole before they dig themselves too deep, others need to shake off some rust before the gears stop working for a good long while, an at least one looks to defy rules as fundamental as gravity (i.e., the expansion blues) for another week. I won’t pretend there aren’t a couple turds in the ol’ punchbowl, but if you wrote all the games on a large piece of paper, sprinkled chicken feed all over it, and set a rooster loose on it somewhere between...I believe it’s ten to and ten after midnight under a full moon, that rooster’s gonna do you a solid.
Now, if you just asked that same roster what he thought about the Portland Timbers’ and FC Cincinnati’s Week 4 opposition, he might say something like this....
Atlanta United FC v Portland Timbers
I think we’re all in agreement that Charlotte FC sucks – I’ve seen a couple peg them as league-worst - and that makes it tempting to yank Atlanta’s Week 3 win out of sample. And yet, if I just described a team as largely ineffectual and given to catastrophic breakdowns, would it be so unnatural for your mind to wander to the Timbers? To put that another way, Atlanta has yet to meet a league power over its three week season and nothing about hosting Portland this Saturday changes that.
On the one hand, the Timbers have a ward’s worth of injuries to point to, but who disagrees that the uneasiness runs deeper? Had 2022 ended with anything brighter than a wet, absent-minded fart, the ol’ familiar March slump might look different, but, to turn this whole thing into a dog chasing its tail, I’d argue that things will not get better until Portland’s physios get a couple guys out of the ward - and, for the record, there's a theory floating around twitter that Portland's phyisos are the last people who will fix the problem. On the (a?) plus side, Dairon Asprilla and David Ayala have returned to training, but they won’t be their whole, best selves for some weeks (and what does that mean for Ayala, really?)...and, I literally just sputter from there. This has “gut it out, and get what you can” written all over it for Portland. As for what they’re up against...
Atlanta does two things that make me nervous. First, they move the ball well. Expect Portland’s Juan David Mosquera to have his hands full managing the interplay between Caleb Wiley and Andrew Gutman – who, based on what I’ve seen, alternate as to who plays wide and who runs the channel – and whichever player helps Mosquera hold down Portland’s right will have to track Thiago Almada’s movement still further inside. Luiz Araujo could have himself an MVP field-day in whatever space Claudio Bravo leaves behind when he goes forward, and Brooks Lennon lurks behind Araujo, so that’s another potential overload to manage. Just to note it, a truly surprising amount of Atlanta’s offense passes through Gutman, with him in the channels for most of it, and that’s generally consistent with what they do – i.e., either break you down or beat you from 20-22 yards out. Maybe they’ll get in behind better once Giorgios Giakoumakis gets all the way in, but they’re not getting that out of Miguel Berry.
The extent to which all that scouting/theory holds, it'll be on the Timbers’ defensive/defensive-ish midfielders to keep those seams stitched together. A failure in that department could wind up with the center backs (and do you go with four at the back, or three?) stepping forward and Atlanta attackers slipping in behind. I mean, I don’t want to overplay the possibility Portland will be “the next Charlotte,” but I don’t want to ignore it either.
As for the attacking side, what can I come up with that doesn’t sound like wish-casting? It was been a crazy quilt and riddled with holes: just a bunch of dudes running around wondering what comes next; no North Star, no Plan B, no Plan A, honestly. If I had to make the call, I’d go through Mosquera often as I could, if for no better reason than Gonzalo Pineda likes to take risks with Wiley/Gutman and I’ve heard enough people dump on Franco Ibarra to want to believe it; I’ve seen Ibarra fall behind a play a bludgeon-foul to make up for it. And if that pressure opens up space for Bravo to bomb forward on Portland’s right, so much the better and get it over their sharpish(!). Bottom line, even with the roster half-gone, I have to believe that a group of professional athletes, guided by a professional coach, can figure how to make what he has work. Even if it means trying something different.
Now, for the second, larger worry: Atlanta presses – aggressively too. If they can rattle the Timbers – and why would a person of sound mind bet against that? – all the above gets worse for Portland and easier for Atlanta. So, no, I’m not optimistic. And yet, and because why not, I’d call a clean-sheet win the best possible result, a scoring draw a solid win, and a loss by one or more goals more likely than not.
Moving on to sunnier pastures...
Now, if you just asked that same roster what he thought about the Portland Timbers’ and FC Cincinnati’s Week 4 opposition, he might say something like this....
Atlanta United FC v Portland Timbers
I think we’re all in agreement that Charlotte FC sucks – I’ve seen a couple peg them as league-worst - and that makes it tempting to yank Atlanta’s Week 3 win out of sample. And yet, if I just described a team as largely ineffectual and given to catastrophic breakdowns, would it be so unnatural for your mind to wander to the Timbers? To put that another way, Atlanta has yet to meet a league power over its three week season and nothing about hosting Portland this Saturday changes that.
On the one hand, the Timbers have a ward’s worth of injuries to point to, but who disagrees that the uneasiness runs deeper? Had 2022 ended with anything brighter than a wet, absent-minded fart, the ol’ familiar March slump might look different, but, to turn this whole thing into a dog chasing its tail, I’d argue that things will not get better until Portland’s physios get a couple guys out of the ward - and, for the record, there's a theory floating around twitter that Portland's phyisos are the last people who will fix the problem. On the (a?) plus side, Dairon Asprilla and David Ayala have returned to training, but they won’t be their whole, best selves for some weeks (and what does that mean for Ayala, really?)...and, I literally just sputter from there. This has “gut it out, and get what you can” written all over it for Portland. As for what they’re up against...
Atlanta does two things that make me nervous. First, they move the ball well. Expect Portland’s Juan David Mosquera to have his hands full managing the interplay between Caleb Wiley and Andrew Gutman – who, based on what I’ve seen, alternate as to who plays wide and who runs the channel – and whichever player helps Mosquera hold down Portland’s right will have to track Thiago Almada’s movement still further inside. Luiz Araujo could have himself an MVP field-day in whatever space Claudio Bravo leaves behind when he goes forward, and Brooks Lennon lurks behind Araujo, so that’s another potential overload to manage. Just to note it, a truly surprising amount of Atlanta’s offense passes through Gutman, with him in the channels for most of it, and that’s generally consistent with what they do – i.e., either break you down or beat you from 20-22 yards out. Maybe they’ll get in behind better once Giorgios Giakoumakis gets all the way in, but they’re not getting that out of Miguel Berry.
The extent to which all that scouting/theory holds, it'll be on the Timbers’ defensive/defensive-ish midfielders to keep those seams stitched together. A failure in that department could wind up with the center backs (and do you go with four at the back, or three?) stepping forward and Atlanta attackers slipping in behind. I mean, I don’t want to overplay the possibility Portland will be “the next Charlotte,” but I don’t want to ignore it either.
As for the attacking side, what can I come up with that doesn’t sound like wish-casting? It was been a crazy quilt and riddled with holes: just a bunch of dudes running around wondering what comes next; no North Star, no Plan B, no Plan A, honestly. If I had to make the call, I’d go through Mosquera often as I could, if for no better reason than Gonzalo Pineda likes to take risks with Wiley/Gutman and I’ve heard enough people dump on Franco Ibarra to want to believe it; I’ve seen Ibarra fall behind a play a bludgeon-foul to make up for it. And if that pressure opens up space for Bravo to bomb forward on Portland’s right, so much the better and get it over their sharpish(!). Bottom line, even with the roster half-gone, I have to believe that a group of professional athletes, guided by a professional coach, can figure how to make what he has work. Even if it means trying something different.
Now, for the second, larger worry: Atlanta presses – aggressively too. If they can rattle the Timbers – and why would a person of sound mind bet against that? – all the above gets worse for Portland and easier for Atlanta. So, no, I’m not optimistic. And yet, and because why not, I’d call a clean-sheet win the best possible result, a scoring draw a solid win, and a loss by one or more goals more likely than not.
Moving on to sunnier pastures...
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| Philly's version of training last week. |
Chicago Fire FC v FC Cincinnati
To start with what I know for sure, Chicago will have neither Fabian Herbers nor Kei Kamara available due to red cards – and, to anyone wondering, Kamara still makes for a pretty solid winger.
I didn’t see what happened in the opener against New York City FC (but also didn’t hear Hosannahs ring about either Chicago or NYC), but they didn’t give the Philadelphia Union much in Week 3 either...and, shit, I forgot to link to my favorite sources, didn't I? Here are my notes on MLS Week 3 - which I'd call thorough, but well short of comprehensive - and here is the most useful thing on The Mothership, the Blessed and Holy Form Guide. Going the other way, the Union played like a team that just walked off a flight after a midweek game played far, far away, so as who knows what to think? Chicago’s historical profile is stubborn, so I’m going with that as a starting assumption.
Chicago’s sorriest labors typically come on the other side – i.e., scoring - so, when I took a look at them for my review, I bounced around what various charts and notes told me would be the most fruitful times. Despite some serious time-traveling across minutes 20-45, I didn’t see even one promising attacking move from the Fire. In fact, I gave up and decided the statisticians credited them for time a succession of players spent writhing on their backs and cursing the heavens.
Based on those tiny excavations, I don’t think the book on Chicago has changed much: the greater challenge generally comes with figuring out how to beat them rather than worrying about how they might beat you. On the plus side, Cincinnati just worked through a stubborn defense – y’know, the Sounders – and they shouldn’t have to worry nearly as much about getting burned for over-committing.
That’s it for this post’s featured artists. The rest takes a quick tour around the rest of Week 4’s action and with an eye for weeding out the games and the teams that look like duds. Till further notice, of course.
To start with what I know for sure, Chicago will have neither Fabian Herbers nor Kei Kamara available due to red cards – and, to anyone wondering, Kamara still makes for a pretty solid winger.
I didn’t see what happened in the opener against New York City FC (but also didn’t hear Hosannahs ring about either Chicago or NYC), but they didn’t give the Philadelphia Union much in Week 3 either...and, shit, I forgot to link to my favorite sources, didn't I? Here are my notes on MLS Week 3 - which I'd call thorough, but well short of comprehensive - and here is the most useful thing on The Mothership, the Blessed and Holy Form Guide. Going the other way, the Union played like a team that just walked off a flight after a midweek game played far, far away, so as who knows what to think? Chicago’s historical profile is stubborn, so I’m going with that as a starting assumption.
Chicago’s sorriest labors typically come on the other side – i.e., scoring - so, when I took a look at them for my review, I bounced around what various charts and notes told me would be the most fruitful times. Despite some serious time-traveling across minutes 20-45, I didn’t see even one promising attacking move from the Fire. In fact, I gave up and decided the statisticians credited them for time a succession of players spent writhing on their backs and cursing the heavens.
Based on those tiny excavations, I don’t think the book on Chicago has changed much: the greater challenge generally comes with figuring out how to beat them rather than worrying about how they might beat you. On the plus side, Cincinnati just worked through a stubborn defense – y’know, the Sounders – and they shouldn’t have to worry nearly as much about getting burned for over-committing.
That’s it for this post’s featured artists. The rest takes a quick tour around the rest of Week 4’s action and with an eye for weeding out the games and the teams that look like duds. Till further notice, of course.
As noted at the tippy top, MLS Week 3 did us a solid, particularly when it came to kicking 2023’s early bloomers in the shins. So, let’s start with those (Look, kids, Big Ben!).
Games to Show They Still Got It
Seattle Sounders v Los Angeles FC
New England Revolution v Nashville SC
Toronto FC v Inter Miami CF
Orlando City SC v Charlotte FC
Because two of these games share highly similar themes, I decided to lump them together. Both Seattle and New England lost their first games of 2023 and I’m confident both want to show all and sundry that Week 3 was all just a bad Saturday. The parallels continue with the fact that both Seattle and the Revs started the season against traditionally weaker teams, and often in favorable venues, but here’s what make these games so fun: they each host teams (see above) who started just as hot, if not hotter than they did. Neither team needs a win, obviously (see goddamn playoff format), but all three points would go some distance to keeping them in the conversation.
Miami, meanwhile, started just as strong as the two teams above, only they didn’t just lose last weekend, the lost their captain and, based on what I’ve seen from Miami (about an hour’s worth of soccer), one of the keys to their system, aka, Gregore. As noted in the review, Toronto looks like they’ve got the right patterns set up, only they’re failing on execution. As such, two questions hang over this one: 1) how will Miami do sans Gregore and 2) will Toronto’s work-in-progress state let them bank all three points in this one?
Orlando comes in under a totally different clause – specifically, getting mocked for a genuinely woeful attack. They have yet to fire 10 shots total against MLS competition in regular season play so far, never mind putting that many on goal. So, if they can’t score against Charlotte...
An Interlude on a Similar Theme
St. Louis CITY FC v San Jose Earthquakes
I am somewhere between fairly and highly confident that no expansion team in MLS history has started hotter than St. Louis – something I’m basing on my loose recollection that, but for failing to beat Philly at home in Week 5 of the 2019 season, Cincinnati could have set the record for the hottest-ever start by an expansion in MLS history. And, golly, did their 2019 light on fire and die from there. At any rate (happy thoughts, happy thoughts, happy thoughts), I believe 10 points through five games was the mark and, between how they’ve played and hosting, I don’t see how St. Louis fails to clear that bar. San Jose has started all right – i.e., 5th in the West, 2-1-0 – but the wins won’t blow anyone’s doors off (e.g., Vancouver and Colorado, both in San Jose).
For what it’s worth, I’d argue the home win over Seattle puts Cincinnati in the same luxury car as St. Louis. At any rate, moving on to the next category...
On the Edge of Now or Never
Just to note it, this is where I’d file the Timbers. On the one hand, sure, I’d call them just one win away from overnight relevance. On the other, I can’t say the last time I’ve worried this much about the Timbers getting just three points from their first 10 games. All I’m saying is, look at the schedule and call me crazy. At any rate, here are the rest of the games in this group.
Club de Foot Montreal v Philadelphia Union
FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo FC v Austin FC
Each of Montreal, SKC and Houston are in the same boat. The fact that the two hosting teams play tough, if tired, opposition (e.g., Philly and Austin) makes me think they face the same rough odds as SKC of coming out of Week 4 with all three points. It’s hard to say who has the best chance – e.g., I hear SKC is creating plenty of chances – but both Montreal and Houston remain winless and, frankly, I haven’t heard much about an upside for either of them.
Look, Points of Interest (aka, a Man Jerking Off in a Camden Town Alley...not on the tour)
Red Bull New York v Columbus Crew SC
New York City FC v DC United
None of these teams are on fire, though I did hear good things about New York over the weekend – specifically, how much their press scrambled Miami, a team that had looked very sturdy over the time I’ve watched them. But all these teams have reasonably playoff-potential baked in and the only clear outlier, DC, have shown real fight.
Duds, aka, Where Intrigue Goes to Die
Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy v Vancouver Whitecaps
Three of those teams are struggling and Minnesota so far projects as a team that will make you look up the word “dour.” Any and all of these teams will need to go on a run before I talk about them as something other than hopeless or dull.
Anyhoo, those are my thoughts going into Week 4. Here’s to hoping I got most of it wrong....
Games to Show They Still Got It
Seattle Sounders v Los Angeles FC
New England Revolution v Nashville SC
Toronto FC v Inter Miami CF
Orlando City SC v Charlotte FC
Because two of these games share highly similar themes, I decided to lump them together. Both Seattle and New England lost their first games of 2023 and I’m confident both want to show all and sundry that Week 3 was all just a bad Saturday. The parallels continue with the fact that both Seattle and the Revs started the season against traditionally weaker teams, and often in favorable venues, but here’s what make these games so fun: they each host teams (see above) who started just as hot, if not hotter than they did. Neither team needs a win, obviously (see goddamn playoff format), but all three points would go some distance to keeping them in the conversation.
Miami, meanwhile, started just as strong as the two teams above, only they didn’t just lose last weekend, the lost their captain and, based on what I’ve seen from Miami (about an hour’s worth of soccer), one of the keys to their system, aka, Gregore. As noted in the review, Toronto looks like they’ve got the right patterns set up, only they’re failing on execution. As such, two questions hang over this one: 1) how will Miami do sans Gregore and 2) will Toronto’s work-in-progress state let them bank all three points in this one?
Orlando comes in under a totally different clause – specifically, getting mocked for a genuinely woeful attack. They have yet to fire 10 shots total against MLS competition in regular season play so far, never mind putting that many on goal. So, if they can’t score against Charlotte...
An Interlude on a Similar Theme
St. Louis CITY FC v San Jose Earthquakes
I am somewhere between fairly and highly confident that no expansion team in MLS history has started hotter than St. Louis – something I’m basing on my loose recollection that, but for failing to beat Philly at home in Week 5 of the 2019 season, Cincinnati could have set the record for the hottest-ever start by an expansion in MLS history. And, golly, did their 2019 light on fire and die from there. At any rate (happy thoughts, happy thoughts, happy thoughts), I believe 10 points through five games was the mark and, between how they’ve played and hosting, I don’t see how St. Louis fails to clear that bar. San Jose has started all right – i.e., 5th in the West, 2-1-0 – but the wins won’t blow anyone’s doors off (e.g., Vancouver and Colorado, both in San Jose).
For what it’s worth, I’d argue the home win over Seattle puts Cincinnati in the same luxury car as St. Louis. At any rate, moving on to the next category...
On the Edge of Now or Never
Just to note it, this is where I’d file the Timbers. On the one hand, sure, I’d call them just one win away from overnight relevance. On the other, I can’t say the last time I’ve worried this much about the Timbers getting just three points from their first 10 games. All I’m saying is, look at the schedule and call me crazy. At any rate, here are the rest of the games in this group.
Club de Foot Montreal v Philadelphia Union
FC Dallas v Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo FC v Austin FC
Each of Montreal, SKC and Houston are in the same boat. The fact that the two hosting teams play tough, if tired, opposition (e.g., Philly and Austin) makes me think they face the same rough odds as SKC of coming out of Week 4 with all three points. It’s hard to say who has the best chance – e.g., I hear SKC is creating plenty of chances – but both Montreal and Houston remain winless and, frankly, I haven’t heard much about an upside for either of them.
Look, Points of Interest (aka, a Man Jerking Off in a Camden Town Alley...not on the tour)
Red Bull New York v Columbus Crew SC
New York City FC v DC United
None of these teams are on fire, though I did hear good things about New York over the weekend – specifically, how much their press scrambled Miami, a team that had looked very sturdy over the time I’ve watched them. But all these teams have reasonably playoff-potential baked in and the only clear outlier, DC, have shown real fight.
Duds, aka, Where Intrigue Goes to Die
Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy v Vancouver Whitecaps
Three of those teams are struggling and Minnesota so far projects as a team that will make you look up the word “dour.” Any and all of these teams will need to go on a run before I talk about them as something other than hopeless or dull.
Anyhoo, those are my thoughts going into Week 4. Here’s to hoping I got most of it wrong....
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