Tuesday, April 12, 2022

MLS Weakly, 04 12 2022: Notes, Factoids and Projections, Now in a New, Improved Format(!)

And I go back to the old framing...
The good news, I’m getting closer on how I want these Weakly Reviews to look with each passing week. Related thereto, I figured out how to get my eyes on more teams/games every week, but, because it’s blindingly fucking obvious, I’m not going to say what it is. Instead, I’ll just slip it into the copy quietly, as if it was something I’ve been doing all along.

I will, however, tell you what it is not only not helping the mission, but that is openly mocking it: The Mothership finally churned out a deluge on MLS in 15 clips for the past weekend. Sadly, literally all of them are highlights from MLS NextPro games, a league that, as much as I’d love to follow it…just, when. Now, the review…

To take a step back and drink it in, a couple things stand out when you look at the standings after Major League Soccer’s Week 6. To give the short form, they’re upside down. For instance, you’ve got last year’s Supporters’ Shield winner (the New England Revolution) and last year’s MLS Cup winner (New York City FC) staggering back at 12th and 13th in the Eastern Conference and with only Inter Miami CF to save them from early ignominy. Meanwhile, over in the Western Conference, those standings are literally 100% inverted from the final standings in 2021, with the California and Texas teams holding five of the top six spots and the Cascadia teams (et. al.) holding them up from below.

Week 6 continued that trend, for the most part. Here’s a run-down of the results, starting with the results you can safely ignore (links to The Mothership’s game summaries are embedded in each final score):

Orlando City SC 1-0 Chicago Fire FC
Philadelphia Union 1-0 Columbus Crew SC
Houston Dynamo FC 4-3 San Jose Earthquakes
Sporting Kansas City 1-2 Nashville SC
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 2-3 Portland Timbers (I also have extended notes on this)

As you’ll see in the last section of this review, saying one can ignore a result isn’t the same as saying it doesn’t matter - e.g., that Philly’s rolling matters quite a bit, as does the reality that SKC can neither get their collective shoes on nor find the field. Also, Houston’s win over San Jose was wild and ugly, closer to drunken mud wrestling than soccer (I watched a fair chunk of that one, for the record and/or research).

Moving on, now, to the results that did matter, with quick notes on each.

Seattle Sounders 3-1 New York City FC
Yeah, yeah, this result came in the CONCACAF Champions’ League, but the (rare, valuable) MLS in 15 highlights for this one bear checking out. Seattle rolled NYC pretty hard, to where they look like a good bet to roll on up the Western Conference standings.

Inter Miami CF 3-2 New England Revolution
The main thing: Miami looked good for the win, even if Brad Knighton straight-up handed them the winner. One broad note, because this counts as one of those classic cases where one result sends multiple potential signals - e.g., did Phil Neville (finally) figure out a functioning game-plan for Miami, or is New England just this freakin’ scrambled. It’s an open question for now, but you’ve got your competing theses. For what it’s worth, Matt Doyle had lengthy notes on this one in his weekly review. Related, Doyle led with a parade of goalkeeper errors and, lo, they were legion.

Red Bull New York 1-2 Club du Foot Montreal
Carlos Coronel had another of this week’s several “you get a car, and you get a car, and you get a car” moment when he got stranded miles up-field on Montreal’s winner. Overall, Montreal weathered an early onslaught, but looked good for the win.

Los Angeles Galaxy 2-1 Los Angeles FC
Samuel(?) Grandsir had himself a game and Chicharito’s movement flummoxed another defender, but LAFC presented as the better team by the numbers and produced a slew of chances, a couple of ‘em called back for offside. Again, I’m more spirit than letter of the law on offside, so, the technical correctness of the calls notwithstanding, LAFC got gently stiffed in this one.

Real Salt Lale 2-2 Toronto FC
Justin Meram scored a cracker and the extent to which Damir Kreilach keeps “the Wondo Spirit” alive in MLS occurred to me as I watched a couple frames of this one - and I’ve got more on RSL below - but Toronto felt like the point of interest in this one…though, again, this result turned on another goalkeeper fuck-up; careful how you roll ‘em out, Mr. McMath.

FC Dallas 3-1 Colorado Rapids
Had a long look at this one and good fortune nodded in Dallas’ direction, if only so far. Jesus Ferreira has been clean and efficient as a high-end hybrid, but they a lucky bounce gave Dallas a leg-up on their second goal and the burned the Rapids later as they chased the game.

Charlotte FC 1-0 Atlanta United FC
I have zero intent of handing any credit Charlotte deserves for this win to Atlanta, but, they won it on an olimpico (replicability doesn't get much lower) and, if the season series followed CCL rules, Atlanta is ahead on away goals. Still, the hype machine has a job and does it well...

Austin FC 1-0 Minnesota United FC
I’ll have more on Austin below, but (at only a glance) this looked like Minnesota floundering in the attack as much as it looked like another notable win for Austin.

That takes care of the round-up. Moving on now to organizing all the teams in MLS according to how they project to the post-season, or fail to, plus the teams I can’t figure all the way out one way or another. Regular readers might notice that I’ve expanded the latter group considerably for this review. I think it makes more sense to understand all those teams as messy, mid-table scrum that will ultimately produce winners (or playoff teams) and losers. Also, long-time readers might notice that I reverted to an old, oft-used concept for the titles. And these aren’t ranking, these are tiers. Dammit.

Heaven (aka, Comfortably Project to Playoffs)
Philadelphia Union, Los Angeles FC, Seattle Sounders, Orlando City SC, New York City FC, Real Salt Lake, Los Angeles Galaxy, Nashville SC

Hell (aka, Don’t; Teams Who Help Other Teams Reach the Playoffs by Repeated Failing)
DC United, FC Cincinnati, Inter Miami CF, Vancouver Whitecaps FC, San Jose Earthquakes

Purgatory (aka, Need to Work Out Some Sins, or Fail to)
Atlanta United FC, Chicago Fire FC, Columbus Crew SC, Club du Foot Montreal, Toronto FC, FC Dallas, Houston Dynamo FC, Sporting Kansas City, Portland Timbers, Austin FC, New England Revolution, Colorado Rapids, Charlotte FC, Red Bull New York, Minnesota United FC

Ah....
Now comes the mountain-fresh wrinkle in these weekly reviews: going forward, I’m going to close them out with notes on anything that seems worth commenting on about any given team after any given MLS Week. Because it’s a bit of a reset/reestablishment of some markers, I have notes on more teams than I expect to in future reviews. Still, this is the plan/structure, but, before getting into that, these are the teams for which I have no further notes.

Seattle Sounders
New York City FC (though it bears noting they’ve played just five regular season games)
Orlando City SC (who seem fine, if a little like the East’s answer to Colorado)
DC United (because a bye week)
Portland Timbers (shrug!)
Minnesota United FC

Now, and finally, notes on all the rest. And we’ll coast out on these. Think of it as a monster jam extending into the night on a fourth encore:

Philadelphia Union
Everyone agrees Philly is good, but how good bears noting: they’ve allowed zero (0) goals in their last four games (v SJ, @ NYC, v CLT, v CLB), and have healthy goal scoring on the other side - e.g., nine goals for, with just one against over their last five games. It also bears noting that’s a semi-soft schedule.

Los Angeles FC
Doyle tells me the front-line isn’t all there, even when it has been, but I’d also call the Galaxy the toughest team they’ve played so far; all the other points have (arguably) come in either a favorable venue or against weaker teams.

New York City FC
NYC hosts the second leg of their CCL tie against Seattle - and that’ll swallow some bandwidth - but here are their next seven games in league play: v DC, v RSL, v TOR, v SJ, v SKC, @ DC, v CHI. What they get outta that…pretty damn soft stretch for a well-built team should give a pretty clear signal as to the state of them.

Real Salt Lake
Pablo’s excitable charges have slowed of late - getting just two points from their last three games - but drawing TFC looks like the biggest miss of the bunch. Or, rather, they could have used a W to carry them into a tough stretch of four games: @ NYC, @ POR, v LAG, @ NSH. Looks like another team on the verge of getting found out.

Club du Foot Montreal
Doyle likes Montreal’s attack (as have I) and argues they’re rounding up post-CCL. After picking up seven points in their last three games, what’s not to love? Answer: the defense. This stretch of games - @ ATL, @ CIN, @ RBNY - saw them score nine, but also give up seven.

Nashville SC
“I think it’s at the point where the trip should be considered a success no matter how aesthetically limited it’s been.”
- Matt Doyle

This is why I have Nashville in the “Heaven” group: they’ve played nearly all their games on the road, and they’re over the playoff line, just three points off the pace, and one point behind three teams, two points behind two more. And they got a solid win at SKC (xG 2.8 to 1.2 in their favor).

Inter Miami CF
I should’ve mentioned Leo Campana’s hat-trick (or brace, if you want to yank Knighton’s gift outta the mix), but I’m more concerned with their immediate future. Here are Miami’s next six games: @ SEA, v ATL, @ NE, @ CLT, v DC, @ PHI. If they get anything north of six points out of that stretch, I’d call them worthy of attention.

Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Doyle notes something I missed - e.g., that Sartini got a little wacky with the D; e.g., Cristian Dajome playing left back and left wing back Cristian Guiterrez playing left CB - and I’m not (yet) equipped to speak to how much that helped Portland get all three points. More to the point, they spurned the gift of two late penalty kicks in that loss, and I’m not sure how many times they’ll find a similar life-line in the games ahead (e.g., @ MTL, @ ATX, @ SEA, v TOR, v SJ, v FCD).

San Jose Earthquakes
Ladies and gentlemen, I give you the only winless team in MLS. In other news, they handed Houston at least a half dozen freebies, thereby cancelling out two beautiful goals by Jeremy Ebobisse, aka, how to remain bad, even when you do some good.

Chicago Fire FC
They’ve allowed just two goals. That feels worth noting.

Columbus Crew SC
Columbus picked up seven points of nine over their first three games (v VAN, @ SJ, v TFC) and just one point in their last three (@ RBNY, v NSH, @ PHI). They cooled off as the competition leveled up, which makes them a classic form team. We’ll see what they do about it.

Toronto FC
Doyle talked up the academy pipeline - and “the kidz” (Kosi Thompson and Jayden Nelson) did score two goals - and he floats the idea that this development could have the same transformative potential as signing Bradley, Jozy, Giovinco. In the here and now, they’ll get tested something fierce over their next two games (v PHI, @ NYC), but the handful of games after (v CIN, @ VAN, v ORL, @ CIN, @ DC, v CHI) should give a better sense of where they are. Related some team wins a stretch of games every season and that gets the hype-train rolling, but it’s always, always important to look at who that team is beating.

FC Dallas
Matt Hedges limped off at the half - something that didn’t matter Saturday, but might matter later - but the big thing I wanted to point out: Dallas defends pretty damn aggressively, or did against Colorado. The latter managed it pretty well, but noted. I heard a more interesting note during the broadcast - e.g., new head coach, Nico Estevez, looked at the players he actually had and built his defensive scheme around their strengths and weaknesses, and I’m always a fan of that. One more big detail: Dallas has three wins over their last four games. Those all came at home, but do mind the opposition - 2-0 v NSH, 4-1 v POR, 3-1 v COL - and note the goal differential in that same run: nine for, two against.

Houston Dynamo FC
The main thing I want to point out here: impressive as Houston’s start to 2024 has been, this is the schedule they’ve played so far: v RSL, @ SKC, v VAN, v COL, @ MIA, v SJ. Still, regularly starting Quintero appears to have helped and they are, in fact, getting the results.

Sporting Kansas City
I mostly want to underline how bad they’ve been…and I’ll fight Johnny Russell on this if I have to. SKC’s defense hasn’t been good - they’ve allowed 11 - but it’s a sputtering attack that’s leaving them for dead; they’ve scored just five all season. They scored a good one Saturday, and made enough good looks, but look at the set-piece they gave up on Nashville’s first goal: they had five dudes in the middle marking nothing and no one, leaving the back post wide open.

Austin FC
Just to note it, Austin owes its edge in the standings over their fellow Texans to the two blowouts (v CIN and v MIA) that started their season. Doyle notes they’ve struggled to create chances - and they’re back down to 1.0 goals/game - but Austin has some legitimate good results, e.g., a home draw against Seattle, and Week 6’s home win over Minnesota. Those count…

New England Revolution
It might have slipped down the memory hole, but the Revs gave up a healthy number of chances per game in last season’s annus mirabilis (or, rather, unhealthy for them), but they had this mind-blowing knack of always finding a way. 2022 has been the opposite so far, and for a variety of reasons (e.g., lots of injuries, CCL, etc.). They’re still giving up chances and have allowed 12 goals in 6 games. With that in mind, here’s their next six games: v CLT, @ DC, v MIA, v CLB, @ ATL, @ CIN. If they don’t get 11+ points outta that, I’d keep the panic button handy.

Colorado Rapids
Just a short note here: the Rapids have gone winless in their last three games and all of them were pretty getable too (@ HOU, v RSL, @FCD). To borrow a phrase, you are your record.

Charlotte FC
Doyle noted how they’re thriving on a two-forward system - Daniel Rios running with Karol Swiderski, and they’ve got a Polish winger joining - but they started strong mostly by knowing what they’re doing. From Doyle’s review, who quoted a guy named Producer Anders:

“You can see them making decisions about where to go with the ball in the buildup – if the primary option isn't there, they know where to look to find the next outlet.”

Red Bull New York
Doyle noted Patryk Klimala’s failure to deliver so far, but I’m noting something freakier: the Red Bulls have yet to win at home. The three wins that are carrying them (@ SJ, @ TOR, @ NE) all come on the road. They have just one point at home, courtesy of a 1-1 draw against Columbus.

That’s all folks…

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